Economy
Is Nigerian Equities Market Overvalued?
By Afrinvest Research
Given the challenges faced between H2:2014 and Q1:2017, investors constantly punished Nigerian equities, with sell-offs recorded across various sectors of the market.
Consequently, Nigerian equities were undervalued, in comparison to peers, presenting ample opportunities for investors to take advantage of some of the companies, which turned out impressive results despite the economic challenges.
Following the reforms in the FX market which resulted in increased FX liquidity and a restoration of investor confidence, massive gains were recorded in the market in 2017 and this has been sustained into 2018, up 12.2% (12/01/2018).
With the market now at an all-time high in terms of market capitalisation and the NSE All Share Index at a 9-year high, there are justifiable fears of overvaluation of the market which raises concerns with regards to a near term correction.
Our approach is to diagnose and probe into the fundamentals as well as technical merit of the overvaluation hypothesis.
From our analysis, average Trailing P/E and P/BV for the Nigerian equities market in the last one month as at 17/01/2018 stood at 13.1x and 1.7x, which are lower than 15.1x and 2.0x respectively for the MSCI Frontier markets index.
Looking back to the last 2-year bull market run Nigeria experienced between 2012 and 2013, the Nigerian equities market was priced at a premium to frontier markets peers in the late cycle of the run, as shown in the average P/E and P/BV multiples of the MSCI Frontier Markets index of 12.5x and 1.6x in 2013 relative to 13.5x and 2.2x of the Nigerian market in the same period.
This implies that despite the rally in the market in 2017 and early trading in 2018, current undervaluation of the Nigerian market by valuation multiples and the proven historical valuation premium Nigerian market enjoys in period of boom suggest there are more miles to clock in the market rally.
Hence, against the backdrop of improving macroeconomic conditions as well as positive outlook for corporate earnings, we believe there is a compelling case for investors to sustain interest in the Nigerian equities market as already noticed in the YTD return of 17.4% (17/01/2018).
Our Scenario Analysis in 2018
A review of our market forecast for 2017, shows that actual performance outperformed our bull case scenario, in which we projected that a contraction in the spread between the official and parallel market rates, an increase in oil production to about 2.2mb/d, oil prices between $55/b to $60/b and MPR at 14.0% will result in a 15.6% appreciation in the benchmark index.
Actual performance for 2017 (+42.3%) surpassed our forecast as investor confidence was reinvigorated following the reforms in the FX market and resilient earnings. In 2018, we envisage that market performance will be largely determined by the following factors:
- Earnings fundamental of Corporates;
- Stability in the FX market and other macro indicators; and
- Funds flow dynamics to emerging and frontier markets.
Our analysis of market trend over the past 10 years, makes a case for a possible repetition of history.
As noticed in 2012 and 2013, the periods following the global economic crisis, sentiment in the local bourse strengthened which drove the ASI 35.4% and 47.2% northwards in the respective years.
In a similar situation, as the economy rebounded from the slump – 2014 to 2016 – in 2017, we expect market sentiment to wax stronger in 2018.
In our scenario analysis for the market performance in 2018, we employed a blend of relative valuation in which we benchmarked our market valuation against multiples for peers in the MSCI Frontier market index and absolute valuation based on price forecasts for our coverage universe which is about 86.0% of the entire market.
From our analysis, the Nigerian market has outperformed the MSCI index on the basis of EPS, growing at a CAGR of 12.2% between 2010 and 2017 vs. a 2.1% decline for the MSCI index in the same period.
Similarly, on a P/E basis, the Nigerian market has commanded higher pricing over the MSCI index in 6 of the 8 years under review.
Against this backdrop, we carried out scenario analysis for the performance of the All Share Index in 2018.
Our forecast for the performance of the benchmark index in 2018 is largely positive as our scenarios (bear, base, bull) all signal appreciation in the benchmark index.
On a relative valuation basis, we noted earlier that our expectations for corporate earnings in 2018 is largely optimistic on the back of improving conditions in the operating environment; hence, we assumed an EPS of N3,377.4 as our base case scenario which implies a 13.0% increase from a trailing EPS of N2,988.8 in the prior year.
Our EPS projection was based on the 7-year EPS CAGR for the All Share Index to arrive at the forecast.
For our P/E projection, we compared current pricing in the Nigerian markets against peers for which the MSCI Frontier Markets index was employed.
In order to arrive at our p/e forecast of 14.1x in the base case scenario, we analysed historical P/E multiple of the ASI relative to the MSCI Frontier Index P/E and assumed a 1.0x premium in line with historical valuation spread.
This methodology yielded an All Share Index projection of 47,620.71 points in our base case scenario, which suggests a 24.5% appreciation in the year.
On an absolute valuation basis, we have a more conservative forecast for market performance, albeit still positive.
Based on our 12-month target prices from our coverage universe of stocks – about 86.0% of market cap – relative to 2017 yearend prices, we forecast a 5.6% jump in market capitalisation, implying ASI projection of 40,384.81 points.
Finally, to make a call on market performance for 2018, we adopted a blend of both valuation methodologies. Based on the foregoing, we arrived at an ASI projection of 45,811.73 points for 2018 which is a 19.8% appreciation from 38,243.19 points in 2017.
Our bear case (+7.7% to 41,189.9 points) and bull case (+32.7% to 50,749.10 points) also follow the same trend and further buttress the consensus view of positive market performance in 2018.
Whilst we note that developments in the macro space will also determine overall market performance, we opine that barring any major shocks in the FX market, corporate fundamentals will be a key determinant of overall performance.
Economy
NNPC E&P Hits 36-year High Record Oil Output of 355,000b/d
By Adedapo Adesanya
The flagship upstream subsidiary of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, NNPC E&P Limited (NEPL), has achieved a record production level of 355,000 barrels of oil per day, its highest daily output since 1989.
The 36-year high milestone, which was achieved on December 1, marks a significant step forward for Nigeria’s upstream sector and reflects the company’s ongoing transformation anchored on efficiency and discipline.
According to a statement signed by Mr Andy Odeh, NNPC’s chief spokesperson, the figures show genuine transformation with average daily production surging by 52 per cent, rising from 203,000 barrels per day in 2023 to 312,000 in 2025.
“This record growth is no coincidence; it stems from a clear strategy anchored on operational excellence, strong asset management, and structured field development. NEPL’s performance demonstrates that with the right leadership, strengthened systems, and a committed workforce, Nigeria’s upstream sector can overcome years of instability,” the statement reads in part.
This comes as the country targets an ambitious production level of 2 million barrels per day by 2027 and 3 million by 2030, with the statement claiming that, “NEPL’s delivery brings them closer to reality.”
Speaking on the development, Mr Bashir Bayo Ojulari, the Group CEO of NNPC Limited pointed out that the milestone is proof that Nigeria’s energy revival is not a dream; it is already happening.
“By showing its ability to exceed its own production benchmarks, NEPL confirms that the essential building blocks for scaling national output are being firmly established. The achievement signals that the machinery of production—equipment, processes, capabilities, and partnerships—can be driven with commercial discipline to produce real and positive outcomes,” Mr Ojulari stated.
The NNPC helmsman noted that the achievement reinforces confidence nationally and across the global energy landscape, assuring partners and investors that Nigeria is committed to reaffirming its role as a dependable energy supplier.
Also speaking, Mr Udy Ntia, the Executive Vice President of upstream operations at the state oil company, observed that the milestone goes beyond the 355,000 barrels per day figure.
“In a sector where shortcuts can yield short-term wins but long-term damage, NEPL is making a different point: sustainable progress must rest on responsible operations. This ensures that scaling production does not compromise worker safety, community wellbeing, or environmental protection. It reinforces a shift away from extraction at any cost towards sustainable value creation—a core requirement for any modern energy company seeking global relevance,” he added.
Adding his input, Mr Nicolas Foucart, MD, NEPL also noted that NEPL’s record-setting performance mirrors the broader transformation unfolding across NNPC Limited.
“This is a story shaped by leadership that charts a clear course; by partnerships built on alignment and accountability; and by a workforce whose hard work is turning goals into measurable progress. Our people, our processes, and principles are the real engines behind this success. We are building for tomorrow, not just celebrating today.”
“For Nigerians, this accomplishment means far more than increased barrels; it translates into greater national revenue, stronger energy security, and a more resilient economic foundation. NEPL has not only produced more hydrocarbons; it has reignited belief in what Nigeria’s energy sector can achieve with the right systems, culture, and dedication,” he added.
Economy
Helios to Acquire Frigoglass’ Stake in Beta Glass for Up to €100m
By Adedapo Adesanya
Beta Glass Plc, a leading manufacturer of glass packaging solutions in West and Central Africa, will soon have a new major shareholder as Frigoglass Group has agreed to sell its entire stake in the company to Helios Investment Partners for up to €100 million.
The agreement covers the sale of Frigoglass’ shareholding in Frigoinvest Nigeria Holdings B.V., the parent company of Beta Glass Plc and Frigoglass Industries Nigeria Limited. The business units include glass container manufacturing, plastic crates, and metal crown production.
The deal is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to conclude in the first quarter of 2026.
According to a statement, during the transition period, Beta Glass will continue to work closely with its current owners and partners to ensure smooth operations.
Speaking on this, Mr Gagik Apkarian, founder and Managing Director of Tetrad Capital Partners and Chairman of the Frigoglass Group, described the transaction as the culmination of a three-year transformation programme for the company.
According to him, Beta Glass’ strong financial performance and growth potential attracted “significant interest from domestic and international buyers,” with Helios ultimately emerging as the preferred investor.
Mr Apkarian noted that Helios’ investment is expected to accelerate the company’s future growth, adding that Beta Glass’ 50-year legacy makes it an attractive platform for further value creation.
Also, speaking on the development, Mr Alex Gendis, the chief executive of Beta Glass, welcomed Helios Investment Partners, saying the move aligns with the long-term strategic vision for the business.
He said the transaction “is testament to the underlying growth potential” of Beta Glass and credited Frigoglass for its guidance and support during the company’s transformative years.
Mr Gendis also assured customers, suppliers, and stakeholders that business operations will continue uninterrupted throughout the transition.
The transaction marks a significant shift for Frigoglass, which is divesting from its Nigerian glass operations after a period of intensive restructuring and growth optimisation. It comes a few months after Beta Glass completed the revamp of its DF1 Furnace at Ughelli Plant in 48 days.
Economy
FG Prohibits Cash Transactions at MDAs, Adopts Electronic Payments
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government has banned the use of physical cash for revenue payments and directed all Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) to deploy Point of Sale (PoS) terminals within 45 days, as part of a sweeping shift toward full electronic revenue collection.
The directive was contained in four separate treasury circulars issued by the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation (OAGF) late last month.
In the documents, the Accountant-General, Mr Shamseldeen Ogunjimi, ordered that all payments to the federal government must now be made electronically and routed through platforms approved by the treasury.
According to the first circular, dated November 24, 2025, the government expressed concern over the persistent acceptance of physical cash at MDA revenue points, noting that it contradicts existing policies on e-payment and the Treasury Single Account (TSA). It warned that continued cash collection undermines the integrity of federal electronic payment systems.
The OAGF therefore prohibited the receipt of cash “in Naira or any other currency” for government revenues and mandated MDAs to immediately sensitise staff and the public. Revenue points are to display notices such as “NO PHYSICAL CASH RECEIPT” and “NO CASH PAYMENT.”
It added that MDAs still collecting cash must install functional POS machines or other approved electronic tools within 45 days, with accounting officers held accountable for breaches.
A second circular, dated November 25, 2025, addressed the Treasury’s concern over widespread unauthorised deductions carried out through customised MDA payment platforms. It noted that some MDAs were using front-end applications linked to Payment Solution Service Providers (PSSPs) that deducted charges before remitting balances to the TSA. The OAGF said this has resulted in significant revenue leakages.
The circular ordered MDAs to stop all direct deductions at source and remit revenues in full to designated TSA or Sub-TSA accounts. Any service-related fees must be paid directly by the Treasury rather than through automated deductions.
It also directed that all MDA portals and PSSPs be regularised with the OAGF by December 31, 2025, warning that non-compliance could lead to suspension from GIFMIS and TSA access.
A third circular, issued on November 26, 2025, announced the introduction of a unified Federal Treasury e-Receipt (FTe-R), which will serve as the only valid proof of payment for federal transactions from January 1, 2026. The receipt will be issued via the Revenue Optimisation platform and delivered electronically through channels selected by each MDA.
The fourth circular, dated November 27, 2025, outlined guidelines for the rollout of the new Revenue Optimisation (RevOP) platform, which the government has adopted as the central system for automating billing, reconciliation, and monitoring of MDA accounts.
The platform will integrate with TSA, GIFMIS, the Central Bank of Nigeria, NIBSS, FIRS, and collecting banks, ensuring real-time visibility over government revenues.
MDAs are required to nominate three officers as RevOP focal persons within seven working days, integrate their existing financial systems, and ensure that only CBN-licensed and NITDA-recommended PSSPs approved by the OAGF are used. All PSSPs currently engaged by MDAs must connect to RevOP for immediate harmonisation of federal collections. The Treasury also directed MDAs to submit details of all local and foreign currency accounts within 60 days.
These reforms represent some of the most significant changes to federal revenue administration since the introduction of the TSA. Earlier in March 2025, The PUNCH reported the launch of the Treasury Management & Revenue Assurance System, aimed at streamlining federal revenue and payment processes. The system’s first phase covers naira-denominated transactions, while the second phase—scheduled for June 1, 2025—will expand to foreign currency transactions and integration with MDA enterprise resource platforms.
The Treasury maintained that the new measures are designed to strengthen transparency, curb leakages, and modernise Nigeria’s public financial management framework.
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