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Nigerian Pension Funds Outperform Bench Mark Index

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By Quantitative Financial Analytics

Nigerian pension funds once again recorded another year of brilliant performance in 2016 roundly beating the NSE Pension Index by wide margins.

The NSE Pension index ended the year 2016 at 810.04 points from its 2015 value of 815.16 points, thereby ending the year down by 5.13 points or -0.63%.

Savings Retirement Accounts (RSA):

Except for APT Pension Retirement Saving Account which ended the year with a negative performance of 22.96%, having lost N0.65 on the unit price of the RSA, every other RSA ended the year with positive performance of 8% or greater. The highest return of 12.67% came from AXA Mansard Pension Retirement Savings Account, followed by Future Unity Glanvills (FUG) RSA with 11.93%

Retiree Accounts:

The performance of the Retiree Accounts followed closely that of the RSA but unlike the RSAs, the Retiree Accounts did much better with no losses recorded by any one of them. Trust Pension Fund Retiree Account led the performance league with 14.68%. All the Retiree Accounts but one, recorded double digit positive return in 2016.

Asset Allocation is Everything

Asset allocation has been said to be responsible for most of the investment fortunes in history. That too can be rightly said about Nigerian pension funds. The implication of asset allocation is that it matters how a portfolio is divided between Bond, Equities, Cash, Money Market and other asset classes. Most Pension funds in Nigeria allocate at least 75% of their Asset Under Management (AUM) to fixed income securities (Government Bonds, Treasury Bills and corporate bonds). The interest rate on those assets has been on the increase over time and the CBN has signaled that it does not plan to reduce the rates any time soon. Though there is an inverse relationship between interest rate (yield) and bond prices, the increasing yield environment especially at the shorter end of the yield curve implies that matured bonds or treasury bills are being reinvested at higher yields and lower prices which benefits the pension funds. By having much of their AUM in fixed income securities, these PSAs tend to be insulated from the downside pressure of the stock market.

Asset Characteristics too

Another pointer to the performance of the Pension funds can be seen by looking at how they behave in relationship to the entire stock market. All the Pension funds have Betas of less than 1 indicating that they do not move in tandem with the stock market. This indication is also supported by the low R-Squared of the pension funds. All these relatively low statistics derive from the fact that majority of the pension fund assets are held in fixed income and money market instruments whose correlation with the market is relatively low.

A beta of 1 indicates that the security’s price moves in tandem with the market but a beta of less than 1 means that the security is imperially less volatile than the market while a beta of greater than 1 indicates that the security’s price is theoretically more volatile than the market. R-Squared on the other hand is a measure of the percentage of a portfolio’s or security’s performance that is attributable to the performance of its bench mark.

The implication of this is that for risk averse investors planning and saving for their retirement, it may be more prudent to overweight on pension fund assets by making additional voluntary contributions rather than investing same in the regular stock market.

Risk Adjusted Performance

Though the RSAs and other Retiree accounts are expectedly and comparatively less risky than similar products like Fixed Income Mutual Funds (as evidenced by their standard deviation of returns), their performance is not as mouthwatering as they seem when analyzed on a risk adjusted basis. Most of the pension funds have negative Alpha and negative Sharpe ratio, according to research by Quantitative Financial Analytics.

Alpha is a measure of the return on an investment compared to a suitable market index such that an alpha of 1% means the investment’s return over a period was 1% better than the market during that same period while an alpha of -1 means the investment underperformed the market. Sharpe ratio measures the risk adjusted performance of an asset or portfolio taking into consideration the prevailing risk-free rate.

The major reason for the negative alpha and Sharpe ratio is that the risk-free rate in Nigeria is quite high, (a risk-free rate of 15% was used for this analysis). Granting the low risk characteristics of the pension funds and the rising interest environment in Nigeria and compared to the performance of other asset classes, it will be appropriate to say Bravo to the pension fund managers for a job well done in 2016.

Contacts: info@mutualfundsnigeria.com

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via dipo.olowookere@businesspost.ng

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Economy

Nigeria’s 12-Month Treasury Bills Stop Rate Clears at 5.5%

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Treasury Bills CBN Sold

By Dipo Olowookere

The stop rates of treasury bills were further increased by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) at the primary market on Wednesday.

The apex bank had in recent time been raising the annual interest rate of the financial asset, resulting in renewed interest from investors, who waste no time to pounce on any available risk-free investment tool with high yields.

Yesterday, the bank offered N128.3 billion worth of T-bills to investors via the PMA across three tenors, with N20.4 billion auctioned for the 91-day bill, N55.9 billion for the 182-day bill and N52.0 billion for the 364-day bill.

Business Post reports that much of the bids were tilted towards the longer-tenor, with lower interest in the short-term and mid-term maturities. In fact, the mid-term bill was undersubscribed.

The results of the exercise showed that N27.6 billion was staked on the 91-day tenor, N40.1 billion was staked on the 182-day tenor, while N124.4 billion was staked on the 364-day tenor, amounting to N192.1 billion.

However, the central bank allotted N24.2 billion for the 3-month bill, N32.7 billion for the 6-month bill and N90.4 billion for the 12-month bill, totalling N147.3 billion, N19 billion more than it brought to the market.

For the stop rates, the CBN sold the 91-day bill at 2.00 per cent, higher than the previous 1.00 per cent. The 182-day bill cleared at 3.5 per cent, higher than the previous 2.00 per cent, while the 364-day instrument cleared at 5.50 per cent, higher than the previous 4.00 per cent.

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Economy

Stocks Gain 0.14% as Zenith Bank Dividend News Buoys Interest

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Pricing Methodology for stocks

By Dipo Olowookere

The renewed interest in Nigerian stocks continued on Wednesday, contributing to the 0.14 per cent growth seen at the market during the session.

The news that Zenith Bank has proposed the payment of N2.70 final dividend on Tuesday has continued to make investors take a good look at Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).

Business Post reports that at the close of transactions yesterday, Zenith Bank was the most traded stock, transacting 154.6 million units worth N4.1 billion.

GTBank exchanged 48.8 million shares for N1.5 billion, FBN Holdings transacted 25.3 million equities worth N185.6 million, Transcorp traded 25.1 million stocks for N23.4 million, while United Capital sold 22.0 million shares for N136.8 million.

At the close of business, a total of 469.6 million shares worth N7.1 billion were traded in 5,470 deals compared with the 338.0 million stocks worth N3.9 billion transacted in 5,232 deals the preceding session, indicating a rise in the trading volume, value and number of deals by 38.94 per cent, 84.15 per cent and 4.55 per cent respectively.

The energy sector was the biggest riser by sector, gaining 0.79 per cent, followed by the banking space, which rose by 0.77 per cent and the industrial goods sector, which appreciated by 0.22 per cent.

However, the insurance counter depreciated by 1.87 per cent, while the consumer goods index declined by 0.32 per cent.

When trading activities were wrapped up for the day, the All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 56.44 points to settle at 40,221.30 points in contrast to 40,164.86 points of the previous day, while the market capitalisation gained N29 billion to close at N21.044 trillion versus Tuesday’s N21.015 trillion.

On the price movement chart, news that a shareholder obtained a court order to free Oando Plc from the claws of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) buoyed its share price by 10.00 per cent to N3.41 per share.

ABC Transport gained 9.38 per cent to settle at 35 kobo per unit, Japaul rose by 9.23 per cent to 71 kobo per share, Royal Exchange grew by 8.70 per cent to 25 kobo per unit, while Academy Press appreciated by 7.89 per cent to 41 kobo per share.

On the flip side, Lasaco Assurance continued its downward trend with a 9.49 per cent loss to finish at N1.24 per share and was followed by Consolidated Hallmark Insurance, which fell by 8.33 per cent to trade at 33 kobo per unit.

Cornerstone Insurance went down by 7.81 per cent to 59 kobo per share, Flour Mills lost 6.94 per cent to finish at N28.85 per unit, while Wapic Insurance fell by 6.90 per cent to 54 kobo per share.

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Economy

Naira Loses 0.05% to Trade N408.80/$1 at I&E FX  Window

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Naira BDC Segment

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira gave up some gains made on the US Dollar at the previous session on Wednesday, February 24 at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window of the foreign exchange market.

At the previous session, after a constant plunge, the domestic currency rose to N408.60/$1 but gave up 0.05 per cent or 20 kobo of this yesterday to quote at N408.80/$1.

This happened as the demand for FX overpowered the local currency as transactions worth $212.43 million were recorded, $89.06 million or 72.2 per cent higher than the $123.37 million recorded at the preceding session.

However, at the parallel market, the domestic currency maintained its stability against the greenback on Wednesday to trade at N480/$1.

But at the same unregulated segment of the market, the Nigerian currency depreciated by N5 against the Pound Sterling to close at N670/£1 in contrast to N665/£1 it was sold on Tuesday and gained N2 against the Euro to close at N580/€1 compared to the previous trading rate of N582/€1.

At the interbank segment of the market, the value of the Naira against the Dollar still remained unchanged on Wednesday at N379/$1. It also traded flat against the American currency at the Bureaux De Change (BDC) window at N395/$.

Meanwhile, in the cryptocurrency market, which had some recorded losses recently, things are beginning to look again as all the seven digital coins tracked by Business Post closed positive.

The largest surge was recorded by Dash (DASH), which gained 30.6 per cent to sell at N169,800. It was followed by Ethereum (ETH), which made a 16.4 per cent jump to sell at N1,088,988.00, while Tron (TRX) recorded a 13.7 per cent strengthening to sell at N31.90.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw its value rise by 9.8 per cent to trade at N31,900,699, Litecoin (LTC) appreciated by 5.5 per cent to trade at N116,000, the US Dollar Tether (USDT) rose by 7.9 per cent to trade at N650.55, while Ripple (XRP) recorded a 3.4 per cent growth to trade at N301.02.

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Economy

CSCS Buoys Bulls’ Return to NASD by 0.94%

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CSCS Stocks

By Adedapo Adesanya

After closing in the negative territory for four consecutive trading days, the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange finished bullish on Wednesday.

Business Post reports that the unlisted securities market closed higher by 0.94 per cent at the midweek session on the back of the gains recorded by Central Securities Clearing Systems (CSCS).

The share price of the company appreciated by N1 or 6.5 per cent to settle at N16.50 per unit compared to N15.50 per unit it finished at the previous session.

This positive price movement boosted the market capitalisation of the exchange by N4.79 billion to N512.24 billion from the previous N507.45 billion.

Also, it increased the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 6.67 points to 713.91 points from 707.24 points it finished on Tuesday.

It was not all rosy at the market yesterday as the share price of FrieslandCampina WAMCO Nigeria Plc depreciated by 22 kobo or 0.2 per cent to trade at N119.43 per share in contrast to N119.65 per share of the preceding session.

Yesterday, the volume of trades dipped by 82.5 per cent as 41,100 units of securities were transacted by investors as against 234,152 units of securities traded on Tuesday.

Equally, the value of transactions went down by 46.9 per cent to N4.29 million from N8.1 million, while the total number of deals went up by 33.3 per cent to four deals from three deals.

These deals were performed on FrieslandCampina WAMCO Nigeria Plc, which accounted for three, and CSCS, which accounted for one.

Again, UBN Property Plc remained as the most active stock by volume (year to date) for trading 15.5 million units valued at N16.8 billion. CSCS Plc has exchanged 4.7 million units worth N73.2 million, while FrieslandCampina has transacted 2.3 million units worth N284.2 million.

Also, FrieslandCampina was the most traded stock by value (year-to-date) for transacting 2.3 million units valued at N284.2 million. Niger Delta Exploration and Production (NDEP) Plc has traded 603,911 units worth N195.9 million, while CSCS has traded 4.7 million units worth N73.2 million.

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Economy

Brent Trades $67/Barrel Despite High Crude Inventories

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brent crude oil

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Brent crude jumped to $67 per barrel on Wednesday despite a surprising report that showed a build in crude inventories in the United States, the largest oil-producing country in the world.

During the trading session, the global benchmark, which many country use to price their crude, appreciated by 2.8 per cent or $1.85 to trade at $67.22 per barrel, while the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, gained $1.78 or 2.9 per cent to sell at $63.45 per barrel.

Crude oil prices went on steroids after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a crude oil inventory build of 1.3 million barrels for the week to February 19. The build was much lower than the one the American Petroleum Institute (API) had estimated a day earlier.

The report came a day after the API estimated an oil stock build of over 1 million barrels. It also compared with analyst expectations of a 5.372-million-barrel draw for the reported week and a 7.3-million-barrel inventory draw the EIA reported for the previous week.

Last week’s frigid weather in the American state of Texas will likely keep oil prices higher for some time as production restarts slowly, and reports suggest that some of it may not return at all as companies have decided to halt production.

The bullish sentiment around the black gold could be attributed to the renewal of hopes from banks and traders, especially after Goldman Sachs said it expected prices to hit $70 and top it by the summer.

Also, confidence that a meaningful demand rebound will accompany widening vaccination availability by soon has supported prices and the production outages in the US only served to strengthen it further.

Key players in the oil market have been talking up the rising prices in the coming months, with some even floating the prospect of $100 crude in the next year or two as the global economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Still, market participants continue to observed events leading to next week’s meeting between the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting and its allies (OPEC+).

This meeting, set for March 4, is likely to set the tone into the second quarter of the year as they decide on whether to bump up production or seek even higher prices before the pick-up in demand has started to fully materialize.

Back in December, the group decided to restore 500,000 barrels a day as part of the gradual process, which was paused in January, to push the remaining 7 million withheld barrels a day back into the market.

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Economy

Confusion Over Fresh Court Order on Suspended Oando AGM

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Oando SEC crisis

By Dipo Olowookere

There seems to be confusion over a fresh court order secured by a shareholder of Oando Plc concerning the suspension of the company’s Annual General Meeting (AGM).

In 2019, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) suspended the yearly shareholders’ meeting of Oando, preventing the energy firm from meeting its obligations of filing financial statements to the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).

But on Tuesday, February 23, 2021, one Mr Patrick Ajudua claimed he obtained an order from Justice O. A Musa of the High Court of the FCT, Abuja, declaring the action of SEC, the apex regulator in the nation’s capital market, as illegal and unconstitutional.

It was reported that the court held that Mr Ajudua, as a member and shareholder of Oando, has a right and freedom of association and assembly with other shareholders and the right to receive information at the AGM.

Also, it was reported that a letter dated May 31, 2019, by SEC to Oando sanctioning its management was declared unconstitutional, null and void by the court because it was in violation of Mr Ajudua’s fundamental right to a fair hearing and his human right to receive information on the affairs of Oando and his interest and shares in Oando.

According to reports, the court set aside the directive of SEC suspending/postponing indefinitely the AGM of Oando because it was in violation, breach, and contravention of Mr Ajudua’s right and freedom of association and assembly with other shareholders and right to information from other shareholders and Oando Plc;

The shareholder was said to have obtained an order from the court restraining SEC and Oando from interfering with, disrupting, and or interfering with his constitutional right of association, assembly and right to receive information from other shareholders and members of Oando Plc at the postponed 2019 AGM.

He further received an order of injunction restraining SEC from acting and/or taking any steps pursuant to its letter of May 31, 2019, or interfering in any manner whatsoever with directors lawfully appointed him.

Also, Mr Ajudua was said to have secured an order directing Oando to convene and hold AGM within 90 days of the order of the court in compliance with the provisions of CAMA.

But SEC, in a statement made available to Business Post on Wednesday said it was not aware of the case or the judgment.

“The attention of the commission has been drawn to several publications in the social media, where it is reported that a shareholder of Oando Plc, purportedly obtained a judgment from the Federal Capital Territory High Court against the commission.

“The commission wishes to inform the general public that it was never at any time served with court processes with respect to the purported matter at the FCT High court.

“The commission will consequently take all necessary steps to verify and set aside the purported decision of the said court,” the statement signed by the management disclosed.

However, Mr Ajedua has described his action as “a win” for him and “all shareholders,” noting that, “The lingering delay in resolution of the conflict has brought untold hardship, financial difficulty and loss of capital appreciation on our investments.”

“Therefore, we receive this judgement with humility and the pray that with all hands on deck, we can move the company forward.

“We plead with the regulators to give peace a chance and allow for a harmonious resolution to the conflict.

“The shareholder community will continue to protect our investments by ensuring high compliance with the code of corporate governance and the integrity of the company’s operations in the capital market,” he added.

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