By Adedap0 Adesanya

Nigerian businessman, Mr Femi Otedola, has dismissed reports suggesting he has a stake and financed the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, describing the allegation as completely false.

The billionaire, who is a close ally of Mr Aliko Dangote, the owner of the $20 billion oil facility, clarified in a statement on Monday that those behind such claims were spreading misinformation and attempting to create division among leading Nigerian business figures.

His clarification came a day after the Dangote Group addressed viral claims suggesting a financing rift between its president, Mr Dangote, and fellow businessman, Mr Tony Elumelu.

He wrote, “Let’s set the record straight. Reports claiming that Femi Otedola funded the Dangote Petroleum Refinery are completely and utterly false. He has not invested a single kobo, not one dollar, not one naira.”

He added that, “The real story, which those peddling these lies conveniently ignore, is that Mr Otedola has actually been requesting a special allocation to participate in the refinery’s forthcoming public offer.”

Mr Otedola further explained that Mr Dangote did not request financial support from Mr Elumelu, Mr Mike Adenuga, or himself, a statement that aligns with a clarification issued by the Dangote Group’s Chief Branding and Communications Officer, Mr Anthony Chiejina.

The company also warned individuals, organisations, and platforms involved in creating, publishing, or disseminating such false content to desist immediately.

Mr Otedola said, “I can categorically state that at no point did Alhaji Dangote request financing from Mr Elumelu, Mr Adenuga and me. The Dangote Group is a well-structured organisation that is well-versed in raising structured capital for its operations.

“This is calculated mischief and a deliberate attempt to create rifts and sow discord within Nigeria’s closely knit and respected private sector leadership. These are men who have built businesses, created jobs, and invested in this nation for decades. They deserve better than to be used as props in a social media fabrication.”

“To those behind this: desist immediately.. And to everyone else, social media is not a tool for manufactured drama. Nigeria deserves truth, not lies dressed up as insider information,” Mr Otedola warned.

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s oil revenue reportedly surged above its 2026 benchmark by an estimated N5.13 trillion in March and April as global crude prices spiked amid Middle East tensions, but only a fraction of the windfall is reaching government coffers.

Since the war started, oil prices have continued to soar, selling for above $120 at some point. The 2026 budget is anchored on daily oil production of 1.8 million barrels per day, a benchmark oil price of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the Dollar.

The revenue surge followed a sharp rally in the global oil market after tensions between the United States and Iran disrupted supply expectations and drove crude prices far above Nigeria’s budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel.

The calculation puts Nigeria’s expected daily oil revenue at about N163.42 billion.

However, actual earnings in March and April came in far above that level as global prices climbed, offsetting weaker production and delivering a strong fiscal boost to the federal government.

This does not translate to the entirety entering the country’s purse, because a large share of Nigeria’s crude is produced under Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) and Joint Ventures (JVs) with international oil companies. Cost recovery and profit-sharing formulas mean only a fraction of incremental price gains accrues to the state after operators deduct capital and operating expenditures.

Beyond these, structural inefficiencies further limit actual inflows. Oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and persistent underproduction reduce the volume of crude available for sale, weakening revenue performance despite favourable prices. Additionally, before funds are distributed, multiple deductions, including operational costs, debt servicing obligations tied to oil-backed loans, and other statutory charges, are applied, shrinking what eventually reaches the Federation Account.

Nigeria also has to contend with exchange rate dynamics as Dollar-denominated earnings are subject to conversion challenges, further diluting the real fiscal impact in Naira terms.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that March crude production averaged 1.55 million barrels per day, below budget, but stronger oil prices lifted average daily revenue to about N201.8 billion, creating an estimated surplus of N1.19 trillion for the month.

In April, production improved to about 1.7 million barrels per day, while average crude prices climbed further, pushing daily revenue to about N294.84 billion and generating an additional N3.94 trillion above budget expectations.

Combined, both months delivered a revenue upside of N5.13 trillion, with the bulk of the gain driven by higher crude prices rather than stronger production performance.

The sharp rise in earnings has given the government short-term fiscal relief, but it has also exposed the economy’s continued dependence on external oil market shocks, where gains in public revenue often come with direct pressure on domestic energy costs.

That pressure is already showing in the downstream market, with refined fuel prices rising sharply as crude costs climbed. Gantry prices at Dangote Refinery rose to about N1,275 per litre, while petrol retail prices increased to between N1,310 and N1,400 per litre in several parts of the country.

The development has renewed concerns over inflation, transport costs and household spending, as higher crude prices continue to boost government earnings while increasing the cost of living for consumers.