Economy

Nigeria’s Borrowing Spree, Any Cause for Worry?

Published

9 years ago

04/07/2017

By Afrinvest

A new report by Afrinvest has taken a look into the recent borrowings by the Federal Government through the sale of bonds.

Afrinvest, in its weekly update, noted that much has been said on Nigeria’s aggressive borrowing spree from domestic and international capital markets since 2016, and deservedly so.

Since the start of a prolonged global oil price drop in H2:2014, the Nigerian economy has recorded a significant downturn in performance as plummeting government revenues and the resultant FX crisis dragged the economy into its first recession in 25 years.

As a result, an expansionary budget of N6.1tn was adopted in the 2016 fiscal year to boost growth and fund more capital projects, with a deficit of N1.8tn estimated for the period. No thanks to the resumption of oil militancy in February 2016 and substantial underperformance of non-oil revenue relative to projections, actual FGN retained revenue was 18.0% short of target, thus deficit widened further. In order to plug this deficit, the Federal Government embarked on an aggressive borrowing spree and this has been sustained into 2017.

To this end, the Debt Management Office (DMO) decided to alter the public debt mix by leveraging on relatively underexplored foreign currency borrowing capacity.

Multilateral loans were sought from the AFDB (US$646.6m) in addition to bi-lateral loans from the China EXIM Bank, France AFD and Japan JICA.

Following improvements in domestic investment landscape at the turn of the year, Nigeria returned to the International capital market after a 3-year hiatus, successfully raising US$1.5bn via Eurobonds and US$300.0m in diaspora bond.

On the domestic front, the DMO has continued with its monthly bond auctions and took it a step further by introducing atypical bonds such as the Savings Bond and a N100.0bn Sukuk offering closing today.

The 2017 budget is projecting another record expenditure year, with fiscal deficit estimated at N2.4tn – domestic borrowing accounting for 53.0% (N1.3tn) of the total while foreign borrowing was projected at N1.1tn.

Whilst the deficit funded expansionary fiscal policy pursued in 2016 had a positive impact of growth – as seen in GDP by expenditure numbers in 9M:2016 – it has come at a cost as public debt profile has remained on the uptrend over the years.

According to the DMO, FGN total debt stood at N10.9tn as of year-end 2015 but has risen an astonishing 48.1% in 15 months to N16.2tn in Q1:2017.

The rising debt profile is not surprising given the widening budget deficit and large depreciation of the Naira; however, the cost of servicing the mounting obligations took up more than 60.0% of revenue in H1:2016 and has become a major source of concern on debt sustainability.

The major argument for increased deficit spending is that the economy is underleveraged with a debt to GDP ratio of 20.0%, but also hard to ignore is the offsetting low non-oil revenue to GDP ratio. Nigeria’s Tax/GDP ratio is 6.0%, which is relatively low when compared to SSA peers – South Africa (26.2%) and Kenya (15.4%).

The nation’s tax collection and administration system is still deemed inefficient with multiple tax system and a high tax evasion & avoidance rate.

Despite the recent drive to increase tax revenue, not much has changed in terms of actual results. In fact, federally collected Non-oil revenue fell 4.4% in FY:2016 to N3.0tn. To their credit, fiscal authorities have doubled down on tax reforms including the recently launched Voluntary Asset and Income Declaration Scheme (VAIDS) which grants taxpayers a time-limited opportunity to regularise their tax status without penalty.

However, with the economy challenged, the odds of significantly boosting Tax revenue in the near term is slim and we expect budget deficits to remain high for the next 2-3 years. What does this imply for medium term debt sustainability? Our opinion on this is a bit nuanced. The structure of Nigeria’s public debt is heavily tilted towards the domestic market (up to 77.9% of aggregate debt) and this easier to deal with in the event of a credit crisis.

Foreign debt obligations are also mostly multilateral and bilateral in nature (78.0% of total foreign debts) which are typically long tenured and granted at concessionary rate.

Thus, we do not expect a debt crisis in the near term but policymakers will need to further diversify revenue base or start deleveraging to avert one in the medium term.

Source: Afrinvest

Economy

Tax Filing: NRS Offices to Operate Saturdays till June 27

Published

43 minutes ago

08/05/2026

Modupe Gbadeyanka

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has announced that from Saturday, May 9, 2026, to Saturday, June 29, 2026, its offices across the country will operate at weekends.

In a statement signed by its chairman, Mr Zacch Adedeji, on Thursday, the organisation said this is in anticipation of a rush in filing of tax returns during this period.

It was disclosed that the offices would open their doors to taxpayers on Saturdays from 10:00 am – 3:00 pm, urging taxpayers “to take advantage of this opportunity to resolve any tax- related matters, seek guidance, and ensure timely compliance with their obligations.”

The extended Saturday operations, according to the NRS, will provide additional assistance to taxpayers requiring support with the new system, facilitate seamless compliance during the June peak Companies Income Tax (CIT) filing period, and improve access to tax services outside regular weekday hours.

Recently, the tax agency launched a new tax administration platform known as Rev360. Taxpayers are still navigating their way around this initiative.

To provide additional support and service delivery to taxpayers on the rollout of the Rev360 Phase I Tax Administration System for medium and emerging taxpayers, NRS came up with the Saturday services.

In yesterday’s statement, the organisation said it remains dedicated to delivering efficient, transparent, and taxpayer-focused services.

Economy

FrieslandCampina Drives 0.21% Growth on NASD OTC Stock Exchange

Published

1 hour ago

08/05/2026

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria influenced the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange to record its fourth consecutive growth this week by 0.21 per cent on Thursday, May 7.

The manufacturer of the popular Peak Milk and Three Crowns gained N10.26 during the session to quote at N127.06 per share compared with the previous day’s N116.80 per share.

This boosted the market capitalisation of the NASD OTC stock exchange by N5.26 billion to N2.459 trillion from N2.454 trillion, and raised the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 8.80 points to 4,110.38 points from Wednesday’s 4,101.58 points.

Business Post reports that the bourse recorded two price losers yesterday, led by Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, which dipped by N2.92 to N73.08 per unit from N76.00 per unit, and UBN Property Plc lost 3 Kobo to sell at N2.20 per share compared with midweek’s closing price of N2.23 per share.

On Thursday, the volume of securities transacted by investors fell by 26.4 per cent to 372,916 units from 506,651 units, the value of securities slid by 31.8 per cent to N30.6 million from N44.8 million, and the number of deals decreased by 27.0 per cent to 27 deals from 37 deals.

When trading activities closed for the day, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc was the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, trailed by CSCS Plc with 60.5 million units traded for N4.1 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units exchanged for N1.9 billion.

GNI Plc also finished the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units transacted for N1.2 billion.

Economy

Naira Strengthens to N1,355/$1 at Official Market, BTC Trades Below $80,000

Published

1 hour ago

08/05/2026

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The positive performance of the Naira against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) was extended on Thursday, May 7.

During the trading day, the Nigerian currency further improved against the greenback by N1.49 or 0.11 per cent to N1,355.85/$1 from the previous day’s N1,357.34/$1.

It was a similar situation for the Naira against the Pound Sterling in the official market. It gained N2.02 to trade at N1,845.18/£1 versus Wednesday’s closing rate of N1,847.20/£1, and against the Euro, it appreciated by N1.74 to sell for N1,593.26/€1, in contrast to midweek’s rate of N1,595.00/€1.

But at the black market, the domestic currency traded flat at N1,380/$1, and at the GTBank FX desk, it remained unchanged at N1,375/$1.

The local currency has gained weight in the past trading sessions as a result of improved forex liquidity, especially from foreign portfolio investors, exporters ‌and oil companies, amid moderate demand. Nigerian yields are still attractive for foreign investors, serving as a basis for more (FX) flows coming to Nigeria.

While continued confidence in the FX reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and improved liquidity conditions continue to support the Naira, the external reserves have been on a downward trend. Available data showed that it dropped $7.73 million, from $48.33 billion to $48.32 billion, as of May 6, 2026.

As for the cryptocurrency market, prices were largely pointing south due to renewed US-Iran tensions, but it remains higher on the week alongside mostly resilient global risk assets.

Funding rates for Bitcoin (BTC) futures have been negative for 67 straight days, creating a powerful setup for a potential short squeeze, with the digital coin losing 1.7 per cent to sell at $79,667.70.

Further, Dogecoin (DOGE) fell by 4.2 per cent to $0.1062, Ethereum (ETH) declined by 2.2 per cent to $2,279.71, Ripple (XRP) slipped by 1.8 per cent to $1.38, Cardano (ADA) depreciated by 1.7 per cent to $0.2619, Binance Coin (BNB) slid by 1.1 per cent to $639.32, and Solana (SOL) went down by 0.4 per cent to $88.22.

However, TRON (TRX) increased its value by 0.9 per cent to $0.3449, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.