Economy
Nigeria’s Revenue-to-GDP Ratio Too Low for Economic Growth—IMF
By Dipo Olowookere
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said Nigeria’s revenue–to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of about 9 per cent was too low to trigger the economic growth projected by President Bola Tinubu in his Renewed Hope Agenda.
Addressing journalists at its last press briefing for 2023 on Thursday, the global lender said the administration of Mr Tinubu must boost the government’s revenue to have funds to achieve his goals.
On May 29, 2023, Mr Tinubu took over from Mr Muhammadu Buhari, promising to jump-start the economy and work tirelessly to address food security, end hunger, eradicate poverty, create jobs, and help the most vulnerable members of society
To kick start, he removed the payment of subsidies for petrol and adopted a foreign exchange liberalisation policy, though the exchange rate between the official and the black markets remains wide (N843.07/$1 at NAFEM and N1,180/$1 at the black market.)
At the briefing yesterday, the IMF Director for Communications Department, Ms Julie Kozak, praised Mr Tinubu for the “two bold and important reforms shortly.”
However, she stressed that the revenue-to-GDP ratio must be improved to “create fiscal space for social and development spending.”
“Raising revenue from the very current low revenue to GDP ratio of 9 per cent is essential to create fiscal space for social and development spending.
“Nine per cent of GDP is a very low revenue-to-GDP ratio, and it is not high enough to be able to support strong social safety nets and development spending, to help protect vulnerable households and also to meet Nigeria’s development needs.
“The 2024 budget aims to reduce the fiscal deficit while also creating space for these priority spendings, both on the social side and also on the development side,” she said.
While commenting on the rising inflation in the country, Ms Kozak said the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may have to raise the monetary policy rate (MPC) at its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Recall that last month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said inflation in October 2023 increased by 27.33 per cent, while the MPC at its last meeting in July pegged the benchmark interest rate at 18.75 per cent.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited suffered a 0.25 per cent hair cut on Friday after investors offloaded some stocks, including Tantalizers, which topped the losers’ chart.
The company was the worst-performing equity during the session after it shed 9.85 per cent to settle at N2.93, Jaiz Bank lost 9.72 per cent to trade at N3.25, Neimeth declined by 9.45 per cent to N2.49, Dangote Sugar tumbled by 7.76 per cent to N35.05, and Lasaco Assurance shrank by 5.96 per cent to N2.68.
On the flip side, Royal Exchange gained 10.00 per cent to finish at 88 Kobo, Linkage Assurance soared by 9.57 per cent to N1.26, Guinea Insurance appreciated by 9.52 per cent to 69 Kobo, Enamelware inflated by 9.05 per cent to N25.30, and Red Star Express rose by 8.41 per cent to N5.80.
Business Post reports that the market breadth was negative on the last trading session of the week, with 24 depreciating shares and 22 appreciating share, showing a weak investor sentiment.
Apart from the insurance index, which closed higher by 0.12 per cent, and the commodity space, which closed flat, every other sector crumbled.
The consumer goods counter deflated by 1.08 per cent, the banking industry went down by 0.22 per cent, the energy sector fell by 0.18 per cent, and the industrial goods counter retreated by 0.03 per cent.
At the close of trades, the All-Share Index (ASI) decreased by 265.81 points to 105,955.13 points from 106,220.94 points and the market capitalisation dropped N166 billion to end at N66.352 trillion compared with Thursday’s value of N66.518 trillion.
A total of 750.6 million stocks worth N11.1 billion exchange hands in 10,584 deals during the session versus the 341.7 million stocks valued at N16.7 billion transacted in 11,233 deals a day earlier, implying a rise in the trading volume by 119.67 per cent, and a decline in the trading value and number of deals by 33.54 per cent and 5.78 per cent apiece.
Champion Breweries topped the activity chart with 350.4 million units worth N1.4 billion, Tantalizers sold 53.1 million units for N157.1 million, Custodian Investment traded 51.1 million units valued at N1.0 billion, Lasaco Assurance transacted 36.5 million units worth N97.7 million, and Access Holdings exchanged 30.7 million units valued at N723.0 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
There was a 0.6 per cent decline at NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Friday, March 14, with the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) dropping 20.44 points to close at 3,363.74 points, in contrast to the previous trading day’s 3,384.18 points and the market capitalisation of the bourse losing N11.81 billion at session to settle at N1.942 trillion compared with the preceding day’s N1.954 trillion.
Yesterday, Okitipupa Plc went down by N30.00 to close at N300.00 per share compared with Thursday’s value of N330.00 per share, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc shrank by 31 Kobo to trade at N21.69 per unit versus the previous day’s N22.00 per unit, and Geo Fluids slid by 31 Kobo to trade at N2.84 per share, in contrast the N3.15 per share it was traded a day earlier.
However, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc rose by N2.66 to N38.23 per unit from N35.57 per unit, Afriland Properties Plc expanded by 30 Kobo to N23.20 per share from its previous rate of N22.90 per share, and AG Mortgage Bank Plc increased by 5 Kobo to close at 53 Kobo per unit versus 48 Kobo per unit.
During the session, the volume of securities traded at the bourse fell by 72.6 per cent to 652,237 units from the 3.9 million units recorded on Thursday.
But the value of securities traded went up by 40.5 per cent to N33.1 million from the N23.6 million quoted at the preceding session and the number number of deals increased by 11.7 per cent to 37 deals from 17 deals.
Impresit Bakolori Plc was the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 533.9 million units sold for N520.9 million, the second position was occupied by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 13.0 million units valued at N502.4 million, and the third spot was taken by Afriland Properties Plc with 17.4 million units worth N356.2 million.
The most active stock by volume (year-to-date) was also Impresit Bakolori Plc with 533.9 million units valued at N520.9 million, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 69.9 million units sold for N23.7 million, and Afriland Properties Plc with 17.4 million units valued at N356.2 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira recorded its first gain against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) this week on Friday, March 14, firming up by 1.19 per cent or N18.31 to close at N1,522.37/$1 compared with the preceding day’s N1.540.68/$1.
This was supported by the injection of FX into the market by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Over the last few sessions, the local currency had depreciate following recent pressures in the market as interventions have failed to ease pressure welling in the market with the country’s foreign reserves losing over $2 billion in the last month.
However, there were fresh injections at the session, which boosted the value of the local currency in the official market.
Equally, the domestic currency appreciated against the British Pound Sterling at NAFEM yesterday by N25.93 to sell at N1,640.20/£1 versus the previous day’s N1,990.13/£1 and improved its value against the Euro by N22.30 to quote at N1,653.78/€1, in contrast to the preceding session’s value of N1,676.08/€1.
In the parallel market, the value of the Nigerian Naira remained unchanged against the US Dollar during the trading day at N1,590/$1.
As for the cryptocurrency market, sellers of risk assets took a breather yesterday, with crypto markets posting sizable gains after risk appetite returned to markets.
Solana (SOL) jumped by 6.7 per cent to trade at $133.10, Ripple (XRP) gained 4.1 per cent to finish at $2.39, Cardano (ADA) went up by 3.8 per cent to settle at $0.7356, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 2.5 per cent to sell at $0.1723, Bitcoin (BTC) grew by 2.3 per cent to end at $83,987.28, Litecoin (LTC) added 3.0 per cent to quote at $91.48, Binance Coin (BNB) appreciated by 1.8 per cent to $590.92, and Ethereum (ETH) improved its value by 1.4 per cent to sell at $1,919.80, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
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