Economy
IMF Forecasts 3.3% GDP Growth, 23.6% Inflation for Nigeria in 2024
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Nigeria’s 2024 economic growth forecast from the 3 per cent it had previously estimated to 3.3 per cent while it expects inflation to moderate to 26.3 per cent.
The Washington-based institution, however, revised downwards the country’s 2025 growth projection from 3.1 per cent to 3 per cent.
The fund also stated that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), through its heightened increase in the monetary policy rate, was on the path to rein inflation, as it projected inflation to decline to 23 per cent next year and then 18 per cent in 2026.
The IMF projected in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on Tuesday at the ongoing hybrid spring meetings in collaboration with the World Bank, in Washington DC.
The IMF report titled Steady but Slow: Resilience Amid Dive also stated that in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), it anticipated that growth would increase from approximately 3.4 per cent in 2023, to 3.8 per cent in 2024 and further to 4 per cent in 2025.
That optimistic outlook stemmed from the gradual alleviation of adverse impacts from previous weather disturbances and the gradual resolution of supply challenges.
The growth forecast for SSA in 2024 remained consistent with the January 2024 WEO Update.
IMF stated, “In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to rise from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent in 2024 and four per cent in 2025, as the negative effects of earlier weather shocks subside and supply issues gradually improve.”
The forecast was unchanged for 2024, from the January 2024 WEO Update, as a “downward revision to Angola owing to a contraction in the oil sector is broadly offset by an upward revision to Nigeria.”
Speaking on Nigeria at the WEO media briefing, Division Chief, Research Department, IMF, Mr Daniel Leigh, noted that Nigeria’s economic growth was showing positive signs, with a rise from 2.9 per cent last year to 3.3 per cent this year, driven by the recovering oil sector and improved agriculture.
Mr Leigh stated that inflation had increased due to various factors, including reforms and exchange rate fluctuations. He said reforms were prompting a revision of the inflation projection for this year to 26 per cent.
He noted that with tighter monetary policies and significant interest rate increases, inflation was expected to decline to 23 per cent next year, and further to 18 per cent by 2026, indicating a favourable trajectory for the economy.
“Growth in Nigeria is steady but rising this year from 2.9 per cent last year to 3.3 per cent this year. We have seen an expansion from the recovering oil sector with a better security situation and also improved agriculture benefiting from the better weather conditions and the introduction of dry season farming.
“So there is a broad-based increase also in the financial sector and the IT sector. Inflation has increased, part of this reflects the reforms and the exchange rate and it has passed from imports to other goods. This explains also why we revised our inflation projection for this year to 26 per cent.
“But with the tight monetary policies and the interest rate policy increase and significant interest rate in February and March, we see inflation declining to 23 per cent next year and then 18 per cent in 2026. So, it is in the right direction.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil prices rose more than 2 per cent on Monday after US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was “on life support,” leaving the Strait of Hormuz largely closed with no clear end in sight to the war.
Brent crude futures went up by $2.92 or 2.88 per cent to $104.21 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased by $2.65 or 2.78 per cent to settle at $98.07 a barrel.
President Trump on Monday said the ceasefire with Iran was “on life support,” after dismissing Iran’s response to a US peace proposal as “stupid.”
This came after the US floated a proposal aimed at reopening negotiations with Iran. The Middle East country on Sunday released a response focused on ending the war on all fronts, including one where America’s top ally, Israel, is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants.
Iran also demanded compensation for war damage, emphasised its sovereignty over the strait, and called on the US to end its naval blockade, guarantee no further attacks, lift sanctions and remove a ban on Iranian oil sales.
After this, President Trump dismissed the offer in a social media post as “totally unacceptable.”
He also emphasised that the US continues to monitor Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles via Space Force surveillance and warned of further strikes if a real end to the nuclear issue is not reached.
The war has impacted oil output by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as it declined to its lowest level since 2000, with production falling by 830,000 barrels per day to an average of 20.04 million barrels per day in April, according to a Reuters survey published Monday.
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq all saw significant output decreases as they were forced to shut in production due to the war, which started in late February.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) was the only Gulf member that was able to increase production in April. The UAE was able to leverage the Fujairah terminal on the Gulf of Oman to bypass the bottleneck, allowing it to export more crude than its peers. The Emirate is targeting a production capacity of 5 million barrels per day by 2027 after it exited OPEC and OPEC+ this month.
By Dipo Olowookere
A 2.33 per cent surge recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Monday pushed its year-to-date (YtD) gain to 60.97 per cent.
This means that the local stock market has gained over 60 per cent this year. This performance has been triggered by a strong appetite for domestic equities, especially from investors with hot money.
Yesterday, the All-Share Index (ASI) rose by 5,705.59 points to 250,481.42 points from 244,775.83 points, and the market capitalisation expanded by N3.160 trillion to N160.254 trillion from N157.094 trillion.
Business Post observed that all the key sectors of the bourse ended in green, with the banking index growing by 4.67 per cent. The industrial goods space increased by 4.32 per cent, the consumer goods counter improved by 0.74 per cent, the insurance sector advanced by 0.59 per cent, and the energy segment soared by 0.03 per cent.
Investor sentiment was bullish as Customs Street ended with 57 price gainers and 21 price losers, implying a positive market breadth index.
The quintet of Livestock Feeds, Integrated Energy Insurance, RT Briscoe, FTN Cocoa, and Union Homes REIT chalked up 10.00 per cent each to sell for N8.80, N2.86, N16.50, N9.13, and N77.00, respectively.
On the flip side, Prestige Assurance lost 10.00 per cent to quite at N1.44, University Press declined by 9.09 per cent to N4.00, Tantalizers slumped by 7.69 per cent to N4.20, NPF Microfinance Bank crashed by 6.25 per cent to N6.00, and Mutual Benefits went down by 5.72 per cent to N4.12.
During the session, market participants traded 1.5 billion equities worth N68.5 billion in 94,834 deals versus the 1.1 billion equities valued at N55.0 billion transacted in 69,996 deals last Friday, indicating a rise in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 36.36 per cent, 24.55 per cent, and 35.49 per cent, respectively.
At the close of transactions, Veritas Kapital was the busiest stock with a turnover of 194.6 million units valued at N299.1 million. Access Holdings sold 172.1 million units for N4.2 billion, First Holdco exchanged 132.0 million units worth N9.8 billion, FCMB traded 123.9 million units valued at N1.4 billion, and Champion Breweries transacted 83.0 million units worth N1.3 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Total inflows into the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) fell sharply in April 2026 as geopolitical tensions and weaker participation from both domestic and foreign investors impacted liquidity in the FX market.
Data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange showed that total foreign exchange inflows declined by 30.1 per cent month-on-month to $2.86 billion in April, down from $4.09 billion recorded in March.
The decline was driven by reduced inflows from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), exporters, importers, foreign portfolio investors and non-bank corporates, reflecting growing investor caution amid rising tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict.
Local inflows, which accounted for 42.8 per cent of total market inflows, dropped by 38.7 per cent to $1.22 billion from $2.00 billion in March.
The steepest decline came from the CBN, whose interventions in the market fell by 83 per cent month-on-month. Inflows from exporters and importers declined by 19.3 per cent, non-bank corporates by 18.2 per cent, while inflows from individuals fell by 33.3 per cent.
Foreign inflows, which contributed 57.2 per cent of the total, also weakened by 21.9 per cent to $1.63 billion compared to $2.09 billion in March.
A breakdown of the foreign component showed that foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows dropped by 17.8 per cent, foreign direct investment (FDI) plunged by 78.9 per cent, while inflows from other corporates declined by 54.6 per cent.
Despite the drop in inflows, the local currency posted a modest gain against the US Dollar during the week, appreciating by 1.2 per cent to close at N1,360/$1, supported largely by offshore investor inflows that helped offset domestic demand pressures.
However, the local currency ended the week slightly weaker at the official market, depreciating by 0.22 per cent to N,361.40 per Dollar while gaining 44 basis points at the parallel market to close at N1,363.15/$1.
In the forwards market, the Naira strengthened across all tenors, with the one-month contract appreciating by 1.2 per cent to N1,384.53 to the Dollar, the three-month contract by 1.2 per cent to N1,424.08/$1, the six-month contract by 1.3 per cent to N1,478.39/$1, and the one-year contract by 1.5 per cent to N1,586.56/$1.
Nigeria’s gross external reserves continued their downward trend, declining by $40 million to $48.33 billion as of May 7, 2026. This marked the eighth consecutive week of decline, attributed to sustained CBN interventions, debt service obligations, subdued oil receipts and foreign capital outflows.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices rose in the international market as renewed hostilities between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns over potential supply disruptions.
Brent Crude gained 1.2 per cent to $101.30 per barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 0.5 per cent to $95.28 per barrel.
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