Economy
Petrol, Electricity Subsidies Will Gulp 3% of Nigeria’s GDP—IMF
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned the Nigerian government the payment of subsidies on petrol and electricity could take up to 3 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024.
The IMF stated this in a statement released on Monday on the completion of its 2024 Article IV Mission to Nigeria.
The lender said that the recent improvements in revenue collection and oil production are encouraging, as “low revenue mobilization constrains the government’s ability to respond to shocks and to promote long-term development.”
But it emphasised that, “The capping of fuel pump prices and electricity tariffs below cost recovery could have a fiscal cost of up to 3 per cent of GDP in 2024.”
Recall that during his inaugural speech in May last year, President Bola Tinubu announced that “The fuel subsidy is gone,” adding that the 2023 budget by his predecessor, Mr Muhammadu Buhari, made no provision for fuel subsidy and more so, subsidy payment was no longer justifiable.
The removal has tripled the price of petrol across major cities from less than N200 per litre to about N700 per litre. This has also led to a huge increase in the costs of goods and services, further worsening the economic situation for millions of citizens.
However, current trajectories indicate that prices should be higher but it has not moved based on the removal of the caps. This, according to experts, can only point to continued payment of subsidies of up to N1 trillion per month.
The Bretton Wood institution warned that the continuous payment of subsidies would affect the government, especially at a time when it is struggling to feed its citizens.
It said about 8 per cent (about 18.6 million Nigerians) are food insecure, and urged the federal government to tackle rising food insecurity as its immediate priority.
Despite this, it welcomed the FG’s approval of an “effective and well-targeted social protection system,” the government’s release of grains, seeds, and fertilizers, as well as the introduction of dry-season farming.
“The recently approved targeted social safety net program that will provide cash transfers to vulnerable households needs to be fully implemented before the government can address costly, implicit fuel and electricity subsidies in a manner that will ensure low-income households are protected,” it, however, said.
The IMF said it supports the decision of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) decision to further tighten monetary policy by hiking the policy rate by 400 basis points to 22.75 per cent, as it believes, “should help contain inflation, which reached 29.9 per cent year-on-year in January 2024, and put pressures on the Naira.”
On the country’s growth prospects, the IMF said — “Nigeria’s economic outlook is challenging. Economic growth strengthened in the fourth quarter, with GDP growth reaching 2.8 per cent in 2023.
“This falls slightly short of population growth dynamics. Improved oil production and an expected better harvest in the second half of the year are positive for 2024 GDP growth, which is projected to reach 3.2 per cent, although high inflation, Naira weakness, and policy tightening will provide headwinds.”
Economy
NGX Group Advances Investor Education Drive with Digital Retail Engagement Initiative
Nigerian Exchange Group has intensified its investor education drive through a digital engagement initiative aimed at improving financial literacy and deepening retail participation in the Nigerian capital market.
The Group recently hosted an X Space session themed Follow the Fundamentals: A Beginner’s Guide to the Stock Market, reaching over 5,000 users, largely young Nigerians, first-time investors, and retail market participants seeking to better understand investment opportunities in the capital market.
Featuring social media investment influencer Omiete Inko-Tariah, alongside representatives from Nigerian Exchange Limited and NGX Regulation Limited, the session demystified key concepts around market operations, investor protection, and safe participation. Beyond education, it served as an open forum where retail investors engaged directly with market stakeholders on issues of confidence, transparency, and accessibility.
Speaking on the initiative, Clifford Akpolo, Head, Group Communications and Partnerships at NGX Group, said: “Deepening retail participation is critical to building a more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable capital market. At NGX Group, we believe financial literacy is not just an educational responsibility; it is a strategic imperative for strengthening investor confidence, improving market accessibility, and expanding long-term wealth creation opportunities for Nigerians. Through digital platforms like this, we are leveraging innovation to connect with the next generation of investors and democratize access to market knowledge.”
The initiative forms part of NGX Group’s broader sustainability agenda under its Community pillar, which focuses on advancing financial literacy, inclusion, and economic empowerment through education-driven and stakeholder-focused programmes.
Following the success of this edition, NGX Group plans to sustain similar engagements as part of its ongoing commitment to strengthening investor confidence, deepening retail participation, and building a more resilient and inclusive investment ecosystem.
Economy
NGX Posts Turnover of 7.772 billion Equities Worth N374bn in Five Days
By Dipo Olowookere
A total turnover of 7.772 billion equities worth N374.040 billion in 402,945 deals was recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited last week compared with the 7.075 billion equities worth N324.351 billion traded in 474,436 deals a week earlier.
Data from the stock exchange showed that the financial services industry led the activity chart with 4.774 billion shares valued at N196.352 billion in 153,515 deals, contributing 61.43 per cent and 52.49 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
The ICT segment followed with 1.118 billion stocks worth N57.825 billion in 44,622 deals, and the services sector transacted 601.745 million equities for N6.984 billion in 27,653 deals.
First Holdco, UBA, and Chams accounted for 2.195 billion shares worth N99.820 billion in 30,056 deals, contributing 28.24 per cent and 26.69 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
Berger Pains led the gainers’ chart after gaining 55.57 per cent to trade at N168.95, SCOA Nigeria improved by 45.92 per cent to N33.05, DAAR Communications expanded by 42.41 per cent to N2.25, Fidson rose by 32.52 per cent to N136.50, and Learn Africa grew by 32.32 per cent to N10.85.
On the flip side, Zichis led the losers’ table after it gave up 11.78 per cent to settle at N29.43, The Initiates declined by 10.03 per cent to N32.30, NPF Microfinance Bank depreciated by 10.00 per cent to N5.76, NCR Nigeria shed 10.00 per cent to quote at N179.10, and Custodian Investment crashed by 9.52 per cent to N81.25.
At the close of transactions in the five-day trading week, 74 equities appreciated versus 69 equities in the previous week, 24 stocks depreciated versus 36 stocks a week earlier, and 48 shares closed flat versus 41 shares of the preceding week.
Last week, the All-Share Index (ASI) gained 2.27 per cent to finish at 250,330.92 points, and the market capitalisation chalked up 2.13 per cent to end at N160.444 trillion.
Similarly, all other indices finished higher apart from the energy, sovereign bond, and commodity indices, which fell by 1.19 per cent, 0.08 per cent and 0.80 per cent, respectively.
Economy
CPPE Warns CBN Against Further Rate Hikes as MPC Meeting Kicks Off
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has urged policymakers to adopt a cautious approach to further interest rate hikes, warning that rising political spending ahead of the 2027 elections and growing geopolitical tensions could complicate monetary policy decisions.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the central bank will hold its 305th meeting starting Monday, May 19 (today) to Tuesday, May 20, after which the monetary policy decisions will be announced.
The centre said while inflation control remains critical, excessive monetary tightening could weaken credit growth, discourage private investment and slow Nigeria’s fragile economic recovery.
Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the country’s inflation increased to 15.69 per cent in April amid the impact of the continued tension in the Middle East.
According to the chief executive of CPPE, Mr Muda Yusuf, the MPC will need to carefully weigh domestic economic realities alongside global developments before taking any decision on rates.
He stated that geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran were already fueling uncertainty in the global energy market, with rising crude oil prices expected to increase domestic energy, logistics and production costs, noting that the global developments could further intensify inflationary pressures within the Nigerian economy.
On the domestic front, Mr Yusuf said signs of rising liquidity linked to preparations for the 2027 general elections are becoming more evident, explaining that political spending by candidates and parties, combined with increasing allocations from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) to state governments, could create fresh liquidity management and inflation challenges for monetary authorities.
“Indications of increased liquidity related to the upcoming 2027 elections are becoming more prominent. Political spending from candidates and parties, coupled with enhanced disbursements from FAAC to state governments, presents important considerations for liquidity management and inflation control,” he said.
Mr Yusuf stated that, given the current environment, there is a strong possibility that the MPC may either retain the current policy stance or opt for only moderate tightening.
The CPPE warned that sustained high interest rates could hurt economic growth, weaken industrial productivity and undermine job creation and acknowledged the need to manage inflation expectations
The centre argued that Nigeria’s inflation challenges are largely supply-driven, particularly due to high energy costs, logistics bottlenecks and structural inefficiencies, limiting the effectiveness of aggressive monetary tightening.
According to Mr Yusuf, monetary tightening is generally more effective in tackling demand-pull inflation than supply-side inflation.
He stressed that higher interest rates could increase borrowing costs for businesses, reduce manufacturing competitiveness, constrain small and medium-scale enterprises and discourage investment at a time when the economy requires stronger productivity growth.
The CPPE also warned that elevated rates could heighten the risk of loan defaults and place additional pressure on businesses already struggling with high operating costs.
Mr Yusuf advocated a more balanced and development-focused monetary policy framework suited to the realities of emerging economies like Nigeria, where infrastructure gaps, weak productive capacity, unemployment and financing constraints remain major challenges.
He maintained that sustainable disinflation in Nigeria would depend more on supply-side reforms, energy security, improved logistics, stable exchange rates and increased domestic refining capacity than solely on aggressive monetary tightening.
“The primary focus should be on fostering investor confidence, encouraging productive investments, enhancing output growth and improving the economy’s supply-side capacity while remaining attentive to inflation management,” he said.
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