Economy
Oil Down as US Inflation Signals Weak Crude Demand
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil was down on Thursday as inflation data in the United States implied a softening of the world’s biggest economy that could weaken crude demand.
Brent futures went down by 6 cents to $83.62 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures depreciated by 28 cents to $78.26 a barrel.
The US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, showed January inflation in line with economists’ expectations.
The index rose 0.3 per cent last month, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said. Data for December was revised lower to show the PCE price index gaining 0.1 per cent instead of the previously reported 0.2 per cent. Goods prices fell 0.2 per cent as the cost of energy dropped 1.4 per cent, offsetting a 0.5 per cent rise in food prices.
This development means a June interest rate cut on the table after reports on consumer and producer prices earlier in February signalled sticky inflation which prompted investors to push back expectations of rate cuts to June from March.
Data from some of the region’s biggest economies in Eurozone showed that inflation dipped further this month, strengthening the case for the European Central Bank (ECB) to start easing interest rates later this year.
High-interest rates have served many major Western economies to curb inflation, potentially reducing economic growth and oil demand.
On the supply side, crude inventories in the US, the world’s top producer, have risen for a fifth consecutive week, increasing by 4.2 million barrels, official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday.
An extension to voluntary oil output cuts from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+ producer group was also on the table.
The group agreed in November 2023 to voluntary cuts totalling about 2.2 million barrels per day for the first quarter this year, led by Saudi Arabia rolling over its voluntary cut.
OPEC pumped 26.42 million barrels per day this month, up 90,000 barrels per day from January, a Reuters survey found as Libyan output rose month-on-month by 150,000 barrels per day.
However, the Middle East conflict showed few signs of abating, with both Israel and Hamas playing down prospects for a truce in their war in Gaza with Qatari mediators saying the core issues remain unresolved.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government has begun assessing the potential economic implications of the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and adjusting policies to shield Nigeria from possible disruptions.
This was disclosed by the Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun, as the Economic Management Team (EMT) convened to evaluate the risks posed by the US-Israel-Iran standoff to global energy routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz.
He said Nigeria’s robust 4.07 per cent real GDP growth in Q4 2025 positions the country to weather looming oil market shocks from Iran tensions.
Mr Edun, who chairs the EMT, in a statement issued on Tuesday by the Assistant Director for Information and Public Relations in the ministry, Uloma Amadi, said the government was closely monitoring developments and remained committed to safeguarding Nigeria’s economic stability.
The EMT moved to review the potential impact of the unfolding crisis on the Nigerian economy.
Mr Edun also chaired a Naira-for-Crude policy coordination meeting to evaluate developments in the global energy market and their possible domestic implications.
The government noted that the situation remained fluid, with global markets already showing signs of uncertainty amid concerns about potential disruptions to critical energy supply routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz.
Such disruptions, it said, could lead to volatility in crude oil prices and financial markets worldwide.
Given Nigeria’s integration into global commodity and financial markets, the government identified three major channels through which the crisis could affect the domestic economy.
These include crude oil and gas prices, capital flows and financial market conditions, as well as global logistics and supply costs.
The statement noted that volatility in global energy markets was already pushing up the prices of key commodities, with possible implications for domestic fuel, diesel, cooking gas, and fertiliser costs.
It added that heightened geopolitical risks could also lead to a shift by global investors toward safe-haven assets, potentially affecting capital inflows into emerging markets, including Nigeria.
In addition, disruptions to major shipping and energy supply routes could increase international freight and logistics costs, thereby exerting upward pressure on domestic prices.
The Minister of Finance noted that, beyond these immediate effects, sustained instability in the region could lead to higher prices for goods and services, further intensifying inflationary pressures and the cost of living.
During the EMT meeting, ministers provided sector-specific updates on the evolving situation, with discussions focusing on the likely scale of impact on Nigeria depending on the duration and intensity of the conflict.
Particular attention was placed on how developments in the global oil market could influence Nigeria’s fiscal outlook and external reserves.
The government said the Economic Management Team is closely monitoring key macroeconomic indicators, including global crude oil prices, exchange rate developments, and their potential impact on domestic prices.
It is also tracking capital flows, financial market conditions and broader implications for Nigeria’s fiscal position.
Despite global uncertainty, the Federal Government said Nigeria is entering the period from a position of strengthened economic fundamentals.
It cited recent economic data showing that the country recorded a real Gross Domestic Product growth of 4.07 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, one of the strongest quarterly performances in more than a decade.
According to the statement, the growth reflects the impact of ongoing economic reforms and improved macroeconomic coordination.
The government said it remains committed to protecting these gains and ensuring that recent progress in economic stabilisation and revenue mobilisation is not undermined by external shocks.
To achieve this, the Economic Management Team is maintaining close coordination across fiscal, monetary and energy policy institutions.
Policy options are also being kept under continuous review to mitigate potential volatility and protect households and businesses from the possible spillover effects of the global crisis.
Mr Edun emphasised that careful policy calibration would remain central to the government’s response to evolving global developments.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange faced south on Tuesday, March 10, by 0.64 per cent, with the market capitalisation dropping N16.25 billion to close at N2.540 trillion versus the preceding session’s N2.556 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) shrinking by 27.15 points to 4,245.97 points from 4,273.12 points.
The red team had more members than the green team yesterday, with the former comprising four and the latter three.
Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc depreciated by N2.43 to sell at N80.00 per share versus N83.78 per share, Afriland Properties Plc lost N1.90 to trade at N17.60 per unit versus N19.50 per unit, Geo-Fluids Plc declined by 30 Kobo to N3.00 per share from N3.30 per share, and Acorn Petroleum Plc declined by 2 Kobo to N1.33 per unit from N1.35 per unit.
Conversely, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by N2.85 to N136.70 per share from N133.85 per share, Lagos Building Investment Company (LBIC) Plc added 25 Kobo to sell at N4.00 per unit compared with Monday’s price of N3.75 per unit, and First Trust Mortgage Bank Plc gained 1 Kobo to settle at N1.91 per share versus N1.90 per share.
The volume of securities surged during the session by 1,253.2 per cent to 14.9 million units from 1.1 million units, the value of securities jumped 180.7 per cent to N132.7 million from N47.3 million, and the number of deals increased by 61.1 per cent to 58 deals from 36 deals.
The most active stock by value (year-to-date) was CSCS Plc with 38.1 million units exchanged for N2.4 billion, Okitipupa Plc occupied the second spot with 6.3 million units worth N1.1 billion, and the third place was taken by MRS Oil Plc with 3.4 million units valued at N507.8 million.
The most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) was Resourcery Plc with 1.05 billion units sold for N408.7 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 130.6 million units transacted for N503.8 million, and CSCS Plc with 38.1 million units worth N2.4 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira further weakened against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, March 10.
Yesterday, the local currency depreciated against the greenback by N8.14 or 0.58 per cent to sell at N1,401.40/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,393.26/$1.
In the same vein, the domestic currency tumbled against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N22.67 to trade at N1,885.73/£1 versus Monday’s closing price of N1,863.06/£1, and lost N19.37 against the Euro to settle at N1,631.51/€1, in contrast to the preceding day’s N1,612.14/€1.
Similarly, the Naira crashed against the US Dollar in the black market during the trading day by N5 to close at N1,420/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,415/$1, but gained N3 at the GTBank forex counter to end at N1,416/$1 versus N1,419/$1.
With the latest level, the Naira hit a two-month low despite improvements in externalities that could offer enough backing for the local currency, including a stabilisation of oil prices to levels that could strengthen the current account balance and improve FX liquidity.
The last time the exchange rate hit the N1,400/$1 region was January 27, when the local currency traded at N1,401.2 against the American currency.
Inflows into the FX market have strengthened in recent weeks, but likewise, the US Dollar has strengthened at the international market due to recent upheaval involving the United States, Israel and Iran.
Meanwhile, in the cryptocurrency market, the price of the top 1o coins rallied as easing fears of an oil supply shock, helped by the move toward a possible release of emergency reserves, lifted risk sentiment across global markets.
The gainers were led by Dogecoin (DOGE) which chalked up 1.7 per cent to trade at $0.0926, Cardano (ADA) jumped 0.5 per cent to $0.2599, TRON (TRX) added 0.3 per cent to sell at $0.2867, Bitcoin (BTC) appreciated by 0.2 per cent to $69,619.49, and Ripple (XRP) grew by 0.1 per cent to $1.38.
On the flip side, Ethereum (ETH) crashed by 0.3 per cent to $2,022.42, Solana (SOL) slid 0.2 per cent to $86.57, and Binance Coin (BNB) lost 0.1 per cent to finish at $640.29, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 apiece.
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