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Economy

Oil Jumps 2% on Tighter Supply, Resilient Demand Outlook

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crude oil 1.27 million barrels per day

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices jumped about 2 per cent on Tuesday on a tighter supply outlook and optimism over the resilience of energy demand in major economies by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Brent futures rose $1.42 or 1.6 per cent to settle at $92.06 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by $1.55 or 1.8 per cent to trade at $88.84 per barrel. Both benchmarks closed at their highest levels since November 2022.

In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), OPEC stuck to its forecasts for robust growth in global oil demand in 2023 and 2024, citing signs that major economies are stronger than expected.

Global oil demand for this year was unchanged in its MOMR, at 2.44 million barrels per day, while it forecast world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024.

For August, the group’s production rose modestly, by 113,000 barrels per day, as members not beholden to the cut quotas, such as Iran and Nigeria, lifted production. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Angola, Algeria, and Venezuela were among the countries that saw production declines for August compared to July levels.

Keeping supplies tight, Saudi Arabia and Russia last week extended voluntary supply cuts of a combined 1.3 million barrels per day to year-end.

OPEC member Libya shut four of its eastern oil export terminals due to a deadly storm that has killed more than 5,000 people, while OPEC+ member Kazakhstan reduced daily oil output for maintenance.

These developments further tightened global oil supplies in what analysts say is an already tight market.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected global oil output would rise from 99.9 million barrels per day in 2022 to 101.2 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.9 million barrels per day in 2024.

Meanwhile, world demand will rise from 99.2 million barrels per day in 2022 to 101.0 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.3 million barrels per day in 2024.

EIA also said it expects global oil inventories to decline by almost a half million barrels per day in the second half of 2023, causing oil prices to rise, with Brent averaging $93 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

In the US, EIA projected crude output would rise from 11.9 million barrels per day in 2022 to 12.8 million barrels per day in 2023 and 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024, while liquids consumption would rise from 20.0 million barrels per day in 2022 to 20.1 million barrels per day in 2023 and 20.3 million barrels per day in 2024.

That compares with a record 12.3 million barrels per day of US crude production in 2019 and a record 20.8 million barrels per day of liquids consumption in 2005.

US consumer price index data for August on Wednesday should hint at the outlook for interest rates.

Also, the Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged at a policy meeting next week, though views are split over whether it will raise rates in November.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday.

Looking ahead, oil traders are waiting for supply-demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday and U.S. oil inventory data from the EIA on Wednesday.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

OGUNCCIMA Expresses Displeasure Over 15% Fuel Tariff Suspension

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OGUNCCIMA Niyi Oshiyemi

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The decision of the federal government to suspend the implementation of the 15 per cent import duty on Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and diesel imports has not gone down well with the Ogun State Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (OGUNCCIMA).

The group faulted the federal government’s decision to set aside the policy, warning it could slow down the nation’s progress toward energy independence and weaken investor confidence in the refining sector.

“The suspension of the 15 percent fuel import tariff is disappointing. The policy was a step in the right direction to promote local refining, reduce dependence on imports, conserve foreign exchange, and create a fair competitive environment for domestic producers.

“Its reversal sends a wrong signal to investors who have shown confidence in Nigeria’s energy sector,” the president of OGUNCCIMA, Mr Niyi Oshiyemi, stated.

On Thursday, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) announced the suspension of the controversial policy.

For OGUNCCIMA, this is a setback to Nigeria’s economic reform drive and a missed opportunity to protect local refiners, particularly the Dangote Refinery and other modular refining initiatives.

According to Mr Oshiyemi, the tariff would have helped to stabilize the Naira by curbing excessive demand for foreign exchange used in fuel importation, adding that local refineries need firm policy backing to thrive, warning that continuous reliance on imported fuel would make the economy vulnerable to external shocks.

“The Dangote Refinery alone has the capacity to meet Nigeria’s domestic fuel needs and even export to other African countries. Supporting such investments with protective policies like the import tariff is not just economic common sense; it is a matter of national interest,” he stated.

The OGUNCCIMA leader urged the central government to reconsider its decision and reintroduce the policy after consultations with key stakeholders in the oil and gas industry, emphasising that sustainable industrial growth requires consistency in policy direction, noting that frequent policy reversals discourage private sector participation and hinder long-term development.

While acknowledging the government’s concern about potential short-term price increases, Mr Oshiyemi maintained that the long-term gains including job creation, forex savings, and increased energy security far outweigh any temporary inconvenience, reaffirming the organisation’s commitment to advocating policies that protect local industries and promote economic diversification.

“We believe in reforms that empower Nigerian investors and strengthen our productive base. The 15 percent tariff was one of such reforms, and we urge the government to revisit it in the national interest,” he said.

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Economy

Ogun Eyes N500bn IGR Next Year, N750bn in 2027

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Dapo Abiodun Ethiopian Investors

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

An ambitious N500 billion is being targeted by the Ogun Stte government in the 2026 fiscal year by leveraging its strategic proximity to Lagos State and its vast landmass of over 16,000 square kilometres.

At the Treasury Board meeting on the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and the 2026 Budget, the Governor of Ogun State, Mr Dapo Abiodun, also said by the time he would be leaving office in 2027, the aim is to have reached N750 billion.

At the gathering on Tuesday at the Obas Complex, Oke-Mosan, Abeokuta, he noted that as Nigeria’s industrial hub, Ogun State “has no business generating less than N500 billion a year, and that has to be our target.”

“By the time we are leaving in 2027, Ogun State’s revenue should rise to about N750 billion. That is what ambition looks and feels like,” he declared, specifically tasking the Ogun State Internal Revenue Service (OGIRS) to contribute N250 billion of the total target, while other key revenue-generating agencies—such as the Ogun State Property and Investment Corporation (OPIC), the Bureau of Lands, the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, and the Ministry of Housing—were directed to scale up their efforts.

Mr Abiodun emphasized that every Ministry, Department and Agency (MDA) had a critical role to play in achieving the goal, describing them as “pieces of a jigsaw that must fit together to complete the bigger picture.”

“Our comparative advantage was not fully harnessed by previous administrations. Our strength lies in providing what Lagos cannot offer. I expect every MDA to prepare an ambitious budget—aim for the stars, and if we miss, we’ll at least land on the moon,” he said.

The Governor urged agencies to adopt creativity and innovation in their revenue drive, commending those that had already demonstrated commendable results.

On the deplorable condition of Kara, near Isheri, Governor Abiodun reiterated his administration’s commitment to urban renewal, stressing that the area would be cleared and redeveloped.

“The new Ogun State cannot allow that place to continue to wear that look. You cannot be entering the new Ogun State and what you see first is an eyesore. There is no better time to act than now—we can’t leave it as an albatross for the next administration,” he added.

He revealed that an inter-ministerial team comprising officials from the Ministries of Environment, Physical Planning and Urban Development, the Bureau of Lands, and other relevant agencies had been set up to handle enumeration, compensation, and relocation efforts necessary for the corridor’s transformation.

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Economy

NASD OTC Securities Exchange Rises 1.11% on Strong Investors Appetite

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NASD securities exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

Four securities lifted the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.11 per cent on Wednesday, November 12, with NASD Plc increasing by N5.32 to close at N59.00 per share compared with the previous day’s N53.68 per share.

Further, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc added N3.80 to its value to sell at N42.00 per unit versus Tuesday’s closing price of N38.20 per unit, Lagos Building Investment Company (LBIC) Plc rose by 31 Kobo to end at N3.48 per share versus N3.17 per share, and UBN Property Plc gained 23 Kobo to settle at N2.59 per unit, in contrast to the preceding day’s N2.36 per unit.

The additions recorded by the quartet moved the market capitalisation of the platform higher by N24.10 billion to N2..193 trillion from N2.168 trillion, as the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) soared by 40.27 points to 3,665.36 points from Tuesday’s 3,625.09 points.

The midweek’s trading numbers showed there was a 87,326.8 per cent jump in the volume of securities transacted to 22.1 million units from the 25,278 units transacted in the previous trading session while the value of transactions surged by 155,602.5 per cent to N1.3 billion from N846,210.62, and the number of deals rose by 35.7 per cent to 19 deals from 14 deals.

Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc ended as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 170.3 million units transacted for N8.0 billion, and Air Liquide Plc with 507.4 million units worth N4.2 billion.

InfraCredit Plc was also the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units worth N16.4 billion, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units traded for N419.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc exchanged 536.9 million units for N524.9 million.

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