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Economy

Oil Prices Mixed on Eased Middle East Tensions, US Crude Stockpiles

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Oil Prices fall

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday amid signs tensions in the Middle East could be easing and uncertainty about US oil inventories, with Brent futures falling by 5 cents to $82.47 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures held steady at $78.26.

Analysts warned that the war premium is going away as it is looking more likely that there will not be a disruption in supply in the Middle East.

Oil has fallen sharply since mid-October as the Israel-Hamas war risk premium evaporated and doubts set in about the demand outlook, before rising in the three days through Monday.

US President Joe Biden said he was holding daily discussions to secure the release of hostages held by the Hamas militant group and believes it will happen.

The White House said President Biden’s top Middle East adviser, Mr Brett McGurk, is heading to the region for talks with officials in Israel, the West Bank, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other nations.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) boosted its demand growth forecasts and the US Dollar fell on data showing inflation was slowing in the world’s biggest economy.

The Paris-based agency said global oil markets won’t be as tight as expected this quarter, with production growth in the US and Brazil beating forecasts.

This came after an assessment from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that highlighted robust growth trends and healthy fundamentals.

OPEC boosted its forecast for 2023 global oil demand growth and stuck to its relatively high projection for 2024.

Market analysts note that the differing views from the two bodies will likely keep oil markets on edge on demand concerns, although OPEC+ supply policy will be key.

Crude oil inventories in the United States rose again this week, adding 1.335 million barrels into inventory for the week ending November 10, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API), after an 11.9-million-barrel rise in crude inventories in the week prior, API data showed. Analysts had expected a 1.4 million barrel build.

API data now shows a net build in crude oil inventories in the United States of 11.9 million barrels so far this year.

Official data will be released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) later on Wednesday after not publishing last week.

Also, a soft US inflation outcome on Tuesday could see the US Federal Reserve start cutting interest rates by mid-2024, aiding the longer-term outlook for oil consumption and sending the Dollar tumbling.

A weaker Dollar can boost oil demand by making crude cheaper for buyers using other currencies.

However, data from China pointed to near-term demand weakness, with refining activity dropping to the lowest since July last month on weak margins.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Otedola’s 40% Acquisition Triggers Strong Appetite for First HoldCo Shares

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first holdco

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Shares of First HoldCo Plc are currently being on high demand at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited after information got out that serial entrepreneur, Mr Femi Otedola, is now in control of about 40 per cent of the financial services provider.

On Wednesday, the company was the busiest equity on Customs Street, selling 10.5 billion units valued at N324.5 billion.

The off-market block trading was executed through negotiated deals as the transactions were privately arranged between parties and then reported to the bourse.

It was learned that 17 separate deals took place involving First Securities Ltd as the buyer with CardinalStone Securities Limited, Meristem Stockbrokers Limited, Renaissance Capital (Rencap) Securities Limited, Regency Asset Management Limited, United Capital Securities Limited, Stanbic IBTC Stockbrokers Limited, and First Securities Limited also as sellers in some deals.

According to reports, the former chairman of First HoldCo, Mr Oba Otudeko, gave up more than 20 per cent of his stake in the organisation to his rival, Mr Otedola, who increased his shareholding from 15 per cent to 40 per cent, putting him in almost total control of the firm, which operates the flagship First Bank of Nigeria Limited.

It was gathered that Mr Otedola bought the 5 per cent equity stake belonging to another long term shareholder; the Hassan-Odukales, after voluntarily quitting the company.

Business Post observed that on Thursday, investors are jostling to take position in the company because of the latest acquisitions by Mr Otedola, who they believe could bring stability to the fold.

At the time of filing this report at midday trading, shares of FirstHoldCo were up by 9.94 per cent to N35.40 per unit from the N32.20 per unit they closed at midweek.

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Economy

CBN Begins 301st MPC Meeting for July 21 as Analysts Eye Rate Cuts

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Cardoso MPC meeting

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced that its 301st Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled to take place on Monday, July 21 and Tuesday, July 22, 2025.

The MPC meeting, which will be held at the MPC Meeting Room located within the CBN Headquarters in Abuja, is one to watch as inflation eased again last month.

At the last meeting in May, which coincided with the 300th session, the team retained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.50 per cent, the second consecutive hold in 2025.

This second pause in rates came after six consecutive hikes recorded in 2024

The CBN also retained the asymmetric corridor around the MPR at +500/-100 basis points, the Cash Reserve Ratio of Deposit Money Banks at 50.00 per cent, and that of Merchant Banks at 16.00 per cent, while keeping the Liquidity Ratio unchanged at 30.00 per cent.

The MPC based the decision on improvements in macroeconomic indicators at the time.

Now, analysts say the MPC may consider cutting interest rates since inflation has slowed for yet another month in June 2025.

On Wednesday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate moderated for the third consecutive month to 22.22 per cent in June 2025 from 22.97 per cent in May 2025. It was 23.71 per cent in April 2025, down from 24.23 per cent in the prior month.

According to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the bureau, the year-on-year figure reflects a 0.75 percentage point decline from the previous month and a significant 11.97 percentage point drop when compared to June 2024, which recorded an inflation rate of 34.19 per cent.

The food inflation rate stood at 21.97 per cent year-on-year in June, a sharp drop from 40.87 per cent recorded in June 2024. This significant fall is attributed largely to the base year effect.

On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose to 3.25 per cent in June, up from 2.19 per cent in May, driven by price increases in staples such as tomatoes, pepper, dried green peas, crayfish, shrimps, meat, plantain flour, and ground pepper.

The decision next week will hinge on the ability of the county to navigate economic challenges including inflationary pressures, foreign exchange volatility, and the global economic outlook.

Despite these, many quarters including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have lauded reforms introduced by the federal government aimed at boosting local production and reducing demand for forex, noting that such moves would help dampen inflationary pass-through.

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Economy

NASD OTC Exchange Closes Flat on Weak Investors’ Appetite

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NASD OTC securities exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange closed flat on Wednesday, July 16, on weak investors’ appetite after the market resumed from a break in honour of the late former Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari on Tuesday.

At the close of trading yesterday, the market capitalisation remained unchanged at N2.033 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) was intact at 3,472.84 points.

The bourse was not operational the previous day because of the public holiday to commemorate the demise of the late Nigerian leader, who died on Sunday in London and was buried in his hometown of Daura on Tuesday.

Business Post reports that the share prices of all stocks on the trading platform remained unchanged at midweek.

However, the activity chart witnessed movements, with the volume of transactions going down by 99.9 per cent to 90 units from the 1.3 million units recorded on Monday.

Also, the value of trades by the market participants declined by 99.9 per cent to N5,850 from the N9.9 million achieved in the previous trading day, and the number of deals went down by 84 per cent to four deals from the 25 deals executed in the preceding session.

Impresit Bakolori Plc remained the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with the sale of 536.9 million units for N524.8 million, the second spot was taken by Air Liquide Plc with 507.2 million units valued at N4.2 billion, and the third position was claimed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 272.3 million units worth N493.4 million.

Okitipupa Plc ended the trading day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with a turnover of 153.8 million units valued at N4.9 billion, Air Liquide Plc occupied the second spot with 507.2 million units traded for N4.2 billion, and the third position was taken by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 42.3 million units worth N1.8 billion.

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