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Oil Prices Steady as OPEC+ Cuts Begin

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices continued pointing up for both benchmarks on Friday, May 1 as oil producers embark on record output cuts to tackle glut due to the coronavirus crisis.

This led to the first weekly gain for the market in four weeks.

The international benchmark, Brent crude, was up by 0.64 percent or 17 cents to $26.65 per barrel, while the American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) went up by 85 cents or 4.51 percent to sell at $19.69 per barrel.

Friday marked the first effective day of the output ceiling deal signed by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and other producers, known as OPEC+. Early last month, they agreed to reduce supply by 9.7 million barrels per day.

The 23-country OPEC+ coalition agreed to cut the output by 9.7 million barrels per day for two months from an agreed baseline level starting May 1. These countries will also cut 7.7 million b/d between July and December and 5.8 million b/d from January 2021 to April 2022.

Business Post had reported that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had already commenced cutting back production before Friday.

Norway also recently announced that it would cut oil production by 250,000 barrels per day in June – equating to 13 percent cut. Then after June, Norway is planning on easing those cuts to 138,000 barrels per day, for the remainder of the year.

Although, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, oil demand will fall as much as 9.3 million barrels daily in 2020, there could be a swifter recovery if lockdowns ease quickly, as some countries have reopened their economies.

It has been projected that a reduced lockdown period and a strong economic recovery in the second half of 2020 could limit the annual decline in oil demand to 6.5 million barrels per day or 6 percent from 2019 levels or 30 percent below its central forecast of 9.3 million barrels per day for the year.

Countries like Spain, France, Austria and Switzerland among others have already removed COVID-19 restrictions and that’s going to see demand pick up, hence, the market swinging towards the positive.

A lower-than-expected gain in US crude inventories was the other significant support factor on Friday for the futures.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories rose by 9 million barrels last week to 527.6 million barrels, less than the 10.6 million-barrel rise analysts had forecast.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Tinubu to Present 2025 Budget of N47.9trn to NASS December 17

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2024 Budget Presentation Speech

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

On Tuesday, December 17, 2024, President Bola Tinubu will present the 2025 budget to a joint session of the National Assembly.

The size of the 2025 Appropriation Bill is about N47.9 trillion and would be presented to the parliament for approval.

Speaking at the plenary on Thursday, December 12, 2024, the President of the Senate, Mr Godswill Akpabio, said the presentation by Mr Tinubu would be at the chamber of the House of Representatives.

However, it is not certain if the lawmakers will pass the budget before December 31 to allow for a recent budget cycle of January to December.

Recall that on December 3, the senate approved the Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP) for 2025 to 2027.

This was after the President presented this the National Assembly on November 19 ahead of the consideration of the 2025 budget proposal.

In the MTEF/FSP, the government said it planned to borrow about N9.22 trillion from local and foreign sources to finance the budget deficit.

It pegged the crude oil benchmark at $75 per barrel and a daily oil production of 2.06 million barrels at an exchange rate of N1,400 to $1, and a targeted gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 6.4 percent.

At the plenary today, Mr Akpabio informed his colleagues that, “The President has made his intention known to the National Assembly to present the 2025 budget to the joint session of the National Assembly on December 17, 2024.”

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Economy

Nigeria Adds 150,000 b/d Crude Production in November 2024

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crude oil production

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria added 150,000 barrels per day to its crude production in November 2024 as it continues to pursue an ambitious 2 million barrels per day target.

According to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s oil production rose to 1.48 million barrels per day in November, up from 1.33 million barrels per day the previous month.

In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), OPEC revealed that at 1.48 million barrels per day, it is the continent’s leading oil producer, surpassing Algeria’s 908,000 barrels per day and Congo’s 268,000 barrels per day.

Business Post reports that OPEC doesn’t account for condensates, which Nigeria’s accounts for in its broader 2 million barrels per day target.

Despite the surge in production levels, Nigeria is still under producing its 1.5 million barrels per day output quota under a deal involving OPEC and 10 other producers known as OPEC+.

OPEC said it relied on primary data gotten through direct communication, noting that secondary sources reported 1.417 million barrels per day as Nigeria’s crude production in November — up from 1.4 million barrels per day in October.

The data also shows that OPEC’s total oil production among its 12 members rose by 104,000 barrels per day in the month under review.

According to secondary sources, the total of the 12 OPEC countries’ crude oil production averaged 26.66 million barrels per day in November 2024.

“Crude oil output increased mainly in Libya, Iran, and Nigeria, while production in Iraq, Venezuela, and Kuwait decreased”, OPEC said.

“At the same time, total non-OPEC DoC crude oil production averaged 14.01 mb/d in November 2024, which is 219 tb/d higher, m-o-m. Crude oil output increased mainly in Kazakhstan and Malaysia,” the organisation added.

In a related development, OPEC trimmed its 2024 and 2025 oil demand growth forecasts for the fifth time this year.

Now, the cartel expects the world’s oil demand growth at 1.61 million barrels per day from the previously 1.82 million barrels per day.

For 2025, OPEC says the world oil demand growth forecast is now at 1.45 million barrels per day, a 900,000 barrels per day cut from the previously expected 1.54 million barrels per day.

On the changes, OPEC says that the downgrade for this year owes to more bearish data received in the third quarter of 2024 while the projections for next year relate to the potential impact that will arise from US tariffs.

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Economy

Afriland Properties, Geo-Fluids Shrink OTC Securities Exchange by 0.06%

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Geo-Fluids

By Adedapo Adesanya

The duo of Afriland Properties Plc and Geo-Fluids Plc crashed the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by a marginal 0.06 per cent on Wednesday, December 11 due to profit-taking activities.

The OTC securities exchange experienced a downfall at midweek despite UBN Property Plc posting a price appreciation of 17 Kobo to close at N1.96 per share, in contrast to Tuesday’s closing price of N1.79.

Business Post reports that Afriland Properties Plc slid by N1.14 to finish at N15.80 per unit versus the preceding day’s N16.94 per unit, and Geo-Fluids Plc declined by 1 Kobo to trade at N3.92 per share compared with the N3.93 it ended a day earlier.

At the close of transactions, the market capitalisation of the bourse, which measures the total value of securities on the platform, shrank by N650 million to finish at N1.055 trillion compared with the previous day’s N1.056 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went down by 1.86 points to wrap the session at 3,012.50 points compared with 3,014.36 points recorded in the previous session.

The alternative stock market was busy yesterday as the volume of securities traded by investors soared by 146.9 per cent to 5.9 million units from 2.4 million units, as the value of shares transacted by the market participants jumped by 360.9 per cent to N22.5 million from N4.9 million, and the number of deals increased by 50 per cent to 21 deals from 14 deals.

When the bourse closed for the day, Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units valued at N3.9 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units worth N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 million.

Also, Aradel Holdings Plc, which is now listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited after its exit from NASD, remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units sold for N89.2 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 billion.

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