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Economy

Oil Rises 3% as Tight Supply Outweighs Demand Worries

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil settled sharply higher on Thursday, rebounding from steep losses the previous two sessions, as investors returned their focus to tight supply despite nagging fears of a potential global recession.

The price of the Brent crude futures went up by $3.96 or 3.9 per cent during the session to $104.65 per barrel as the US WTI crude futures climbed $4.20 or 4.3 per cent to $102.73 a barrel.

Following a volatile start to the week that saw prices fall to their lowest in over two months, traders shrugged off recession fears and turned their focus back to the undersupply issues.

Market analysts said that with Russian oil supplies set to drop as the year progresses and it runs out of Western parts to maintain fields, and with the rest of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) uninvested in maintaining production capacity, prices will remain in the three digits.

More supply disruption is expected as traders are bracing for oil supply disruptions at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which has been told by a Russian court to suspend activity for 30 days.

Exports via the CPC handle about one per cent of global oil supplies.

The United States tightened sanctions on OPEC member, Iran, on Wednesday, pressuring the Middle East oil producer as it seeks to revive a 2015 Iran nuclear deal and unleash its exports.

The US Treasury Department said in a statement that a network of people and entities used a web of Gulf-based front companies to facilitate the delivery and sale of hundreds of millions of dollars in petroleum products from Iranian firms to China and elsewhere in East Asia.

In Doha, Qatar last week, indirect talks between both countries ended without a breakthrough over how to salvage the deal, under which Iran had reined in its atomic programme.

Meanwhile, US crude oil stockpiles rose by 8.2 million barrels last week, driven by an increase in inventories and as refiners cut output, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday.

Also, the country witnessed an uptick in the petroleum product supplied, the best pointer for US consumer demand as it rose to 20.5 million barrels per day in the most recent week.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Oyetola Orders Dibursement of Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund

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Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Mr Adegboyega Oyetola, has instructed the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) to initiate the long-awaited disbursement process for the Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (CVFF).

This directive marks a significant shift from over two decades of administrative stagnation and ushers in a new era of strategic repositioning of Nigeria’s indigenous shipping.

The CVFF, established under the Coastal and Inland Shipping (Cabotage) Act of 2003, was designed to empower Nigerian shipping companies through access to structured financing for vessel acquisition. However, successive administrations failed to operationalize the fund—until now.

According to the Minister, the disbursement of the CVFF will represent not just the release of funds, but a profound commitment to empowering Nigerian maritime operators, bolstering national competitiveness, and fostering sustainable economic development.

“This is not just about disbursing funds. It’s about rewriting a chapter in our maritime history,” said Mr Oyetola. “For over 20 years, the CVFF remained a dormant promise. Today, we are bringing it to life—deliberately, transparently, and strategically,” he stated.

NIMASA, in alignment with the Minister’s directive, has already issued a Marine Notice inviting eligible Nigerian shipping companies to apply.

Qualified applicants can access up to $25 million each at competitive interest rates to acquire vessels that meet international safety and performance standards.

The fund will be administered in partnership with carefully selected and approved Primary Lending Institutions (PLIs), ensuring professional and efficient disbursement.

“We are not merely funding vessels; we are investing in a future where Nigerian shipping companies can stand shoulder-to-shoulder with their international counterparts,” Mr Oyetola said.

“This is a turning point—one that affirms our commitment to local content, economic resilience, and maritime sovereignty,” he added.

The disbursement of the CVFF is anticipated to yield far-reaching benefits. It will enable the growth of a stronger, self-sufficient shipping fleet, generate employment opportunities, stimulate local shipbuilding and repair industries, and significantly reduce capital flight associated with foreign vessel chartering.

“We are doing what should have been done years ago—because our vision is clear.”

“A strong indigenous fleet is not just a matter of pride; it is a strategic national asset. Through this intervention, we will be securing jobs, strengthening our economy, and redefining our place in the global maritime economy,” said Mr Oyetola.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Jumps to 24.23% in March 2025

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s inflation rate edged up to 24.23 per cent in March, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on  Tuesday. 

It was the first time since the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen since it was rebased in January by the stats office, which made the base year 2024 from the previous 2009.

The new rate indicates an upward movement of 1.05 per cent from the 23.18 per cent reported in February 2025, signalling a return to levels (24.48 per cent) recorded in the beginning of the year after the CPI rebasing.

This latest figures came at a time that the United States President, Mr Donald Trump, has unleashed a trade war that has triggered a sharp selloff in the price of oil, Nigeria’s main export and led to the weakening of the Naira, which will push up import costs, though this should reflect in the next CPI numbers next month.

Although the US administration announced a 90 per cent day pause on the 14 per cent reciprocal tariffs last week, its felt impact remains, as it continues to fight China.

The Nigerian government have announced plans to boost its non-oil imports to tackle the blowbacks from the trade war, which will heavily impact the global economy.

The rise in inflation will also present a challenge to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) regarding interest rates, which it paused at its last meeting.

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Economy

Fitch Sees Nigeria’s External Debt at $5.2bn, Maintains Stable Outlook

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Fitch Ratings

By Adedapo Adesanya

Fitch Ratings has projected Nigeria’s external debt service to reach $5.2 billion this year from $4.7 billion in 2024, though it maintained a stable outlook for the country in its latest rating.

The agency also cited a minor delay in the payment of a Eurobond coupon due on March 28, 2025, as a reflection of persistent challenges in public finance management.

The rating firm had upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, with a stable outlook.

The $5.2 billion in debt service, according to Fitch, includes $4.5 billion in amortisation payments and a $1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November.

The development highlights the growing pressure on public finances despite ongoing economic reforms by the federal government.

Fitch noted, “The government external debt service is moderate but expected to rise to $5.2 billion in 2025 (with $4.5bn of amortisations, including a $1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November 2025), from $4.7 billion in 2024, and fall to $3.5 billion in 2026.”

It warned that although Nigeria’s external debt service remains within manageable levels, high-interest costs, weak revenue performance, and limited fiscal space remain significant concerns, adding that general government debt was expected to remain at about 51 per cent of GDP in 2025 and 2026.

However, it expressed concerns over the government’s revenue position, noting that interest payments will consume a substantial portion of income.

“We expect general government revenue-to-GDP to rise but to remain structurally low (averaging 13.3 per cent in 2025–2026), largely accounting for a high general government interest/revenue ratio, above 30 per cent, with federal government interest/revenue ratio of nearly 50 per cent,” it stated.

The company observed that Nigeria’s gross reserves rose to $41 billion at the end of 2024, before declining to $38 billion due to debt service payments.

Despite this, Fitch expects the country’s reserves to average five months of current external payments over the medium term, above the median for similarly rated economies, adding that recent policy reforms had contributed to increased foreign exchange inflows and better monetary stability, with inflation projected to average 22 per cent in 2025.

“Net official FX inflows through the CBN and autonomous sources rose by about 89 per cent in Q4 2024. We expect continued formalisation of FX activity to support the exchange rate, although we anticipate modest depreciation in the short term,” a part of the report stated.

It commended the government’s commitment to economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies, liberalisation of the exchange rate, and tightening of monetary policy, noting that these steps had improved policy credibility and strengthened Nigeria’s ability to absorb shocks.

However, the agency warned that risks to Nigeria’s external and fiscal position remained, particularly if oil prices fall or policy implementation slows down.

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