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Economy

Okomu Oil: Compelling Growth Story Despite Weak Earnings

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By Cordros Research

We update on OKOMUOIL following the 2018FY results and our recent discussion with management. After the unimpressive performance in 2018FY, we forecast EPS to grow by 2.3% in 2019 and 24.6% average over 2020-2021E, with a TP of N93.62/s (previously N91.57/s).

Our revised estimate is driven by both the resurgent price of CPO and the expected boost to volume from additional mature plantations coming on stream both in 2020 and 2021, which should offset persisting energy cost challenges.

CPO volume growth will be muted in 2019: We estimate that CPO volume grew by +22.1% in 2018, supported by higher production from oil mills (+8% y/y) as previous acreage areas replanted matured. With no new maturities expected until 2020E, we do not see CPO sales volume exceeding 2018 level in 2019.

Management, in our recent discussion, guided to flattish to marginal CPO volume growth in 2019. However, we look for strong volume growth in 2020 and 2021, with a further 4,500ha of mature plantation expected to come on stream from Extension II each year, according to management.

Overall, we estimate 46,036MTs will be achieved in 2019 (+1.3% y/y), and volume growth to average 19.7% over 2020-2023E.

Higher selling prices will support revenue: Elsewhere, the narrowing glut in the global CPO market (c. 2,464kMT vs. 4,562kMT in 2018) potentially bodes well for CPO prices in 2019.

Given that domestic CPO price tracks global price, we expect that higher international market prices will pass through to domestic prices.

To buttress, while unfavourable weather conditions are expected to weigh on global supply, demand resurgence in India – which accounts for 15% of global consumption – is expected to lift global demand.

By implication, we project mean CPO price to be 5% higher in 2019 vs. 2018.

On the contrary, however, we hold the view that persisting global stock accumulation will continue to weigh on rubber prices, thus limiting the scope for export sales for OKOMUOIL. Overall, we project +6.9% y/y revenue growth in 2019E and 28.8% average over 2020-2021E.

Albeit with limited pass through to gross margin: We revise our gross margin estimate for 2019E 36 bps lower to 73.1%, reflecting continued CoGS pressure. The company reported 74% y/y and 26% y/y expansion in Q4-18 and 2018FY CoGS respectively.

Management attributed the CoGs pressure in 2018 to energy supply challenges (as only 41% vs. target of 60%, of its energy requirements was supplied by BEDC1, with generator set supplying the balance) which (are not under its control and) have not been addressed.

Higher finance charges to cap pre-tax profits: With the one-year moratorium on the N1.95 billion concessionary loan from the Bank of Industry (BOI) ending last year, we expect interest payment to commence in 2019, potentially increasing finance charges by 83% y/y to N537 million, on our estimate.

Estimates and valuation: The net impact of our adjustment translates to growth in PBT and PAT of 5.2% y/y and 2.3% y/y respectively in 2019, and average EPS growth of 24.6% in 2020-2021E.

Our new TP of N93.6/s implies total upside of 21% after incorporating expected dividend yield of 4.0%.

OKOMUOIL currently trades at P/E and EV/EBITDA of 8.89x and 8.06x, significant discounts to its Middle East and Africa peer averages of 16.6x and 18.6x. We upgrade our recommendation to BUY, from HOLD.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

FG Approves Payments to 1,240 Contractors to Ease Liquidity Pressure

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FG contractors protest

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

This news will surely excite local contractors with verified claims of N100 million or less, as the federal government has approved their payments.

This approval for the disbursement was given by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele.

This followed a verification and reconciliation exercise designed to ensure only validated claims qualify for payment.

The beneficiaries cover contractors across multiple ministries, departments and agencies. The release of the funds is expected to enable contractors to return to project sites, pay workers, settle suppliers and meet outstanding financial commitments.

In an announcement on Monday, the Federal Ministry of Finance also said this latest batch of payments would ease liquidity pressure on small businesses and accelerate economic activity nationwide.

It was noted that the payments for verified claims of N100 million below were strategically done to spread economic impact broadly rather than concentrate disbursements among a handful of large firms.

The payments form part of a broader push to clear inherited contractor obligations, with over N700 billion verified in recent months.

“For many beneficiaries, the release of funds represents more than a financial transaction. It provides the certainty needed to sustain operations, preserve jobs, complete ongoing projects, and contribute to economic recovery and growth,” the ministry said in a statement.

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Economy

Excitement as Invest in Lagos Summit 3.0 Kicks Off

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lagos view

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Lagos State is currently agog because of the high-profile guests in the city for the Invest in Lagos Summit 3.0 commencing today, Monday, June 8, 2026.

The programme, which ends tomorrow, is themed Lagos: Business Gateway to Africa. It will feature a line-up of sessions focused on Lagos as Africa’s Global Gateway, the Future of Technology and Innovation, Unlocking Investment, Building the Cities of the Future, Global Partnerships for Growth, Talent, Creativity and Culture, and Energy and Sustainability.

The event is being put together by the Lagos State government and Commonwealth Enterprise and Investment Council (CWEIC).

The venue of the summit, Eko Hotel and Suites, is already lively, with the Lagos State Governor, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu; the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele; the co-chair of the Lagos Finance and Investment Council (LFIC), Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede; and the chief executive of Moniepoint Incorporated, Mr Tosin Eniolorunda, amongst others expected to speak.

The workshop is designed to position Lagos as Africa’s premier destination for investment, trade, innovation, infrastructure development, and economic partnerships.

It is focused on unlocking investment opportunities and accelerating sustainable economic growth. It will bring together high-level participants from across the public and private sectors to explore opportunities in technology, infrastructure, energy, manufacturing, finance, creative industries, and urban development.

According to the Lagos Commissioner for Information and Strategy, Mr Gbenga Omotoso, the programme has been carefully structured to move beyond conversations and focus on actionable outcomes that can stimulate investment inflows into Lagos State.

He said the conference will provide a platform to showcase the state’s investments in transportation, technology, energy, manufacturing, tourism, and urban development, while also highlighting opportunities for local and international investors.

“Invest in Lagos 3.0 is more than a conference; it is a strategic platform designed to connect investors with opportunities, facilitate meaningful partnerships, and showcase Lagos as Africa’s most attractive investment destination.

“Through this summit, we are bringing together government leaders, global investors, development institutions, and business executives to explore opportunities that will unlock growth, create jobs, and accelerate economic development across Lagos and Nigeria,” the Commissioner, who doubles as the Head of the Media Subcommittee, stated.

The gathering will also feature investment pitches by governors, exhibitions by participating organisations, networking opportunities, a gala dinner, and site visits to major infrastructure and industrial projects, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Lagos Free Zone, Lagos Port, and RusselSmith’s advanced manufacturing facility.

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Economy

Nigeria to Frustrate Illegal Fishing Via €59m West Africa Ocean Initiative

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illegal fishing

By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government has expressed readiness to leverage the €59 million West Africa Sustainable Ocean Programme (WASOP) as part of intensified efforts to combat illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing while strengthening sustainable management of its marine resources.

The Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Mr Adegboyega Oyetola, made this known in Abuja during a meeting with the European Union Ambassador to Nigeria, Mr Gautier Mignot, where both sides reaffirmed their commitment to deepening cooperation on maritime security and sustainable ocean governance.

Welcoming the EU Ambassador, Mr Oyetola commended the group for its longstanding partnership with Nigeria, particularly its support for maritime stability in the Gulf of Guinea, a region critical to global shipping and regional economic development.

He noted that the West Africa Sustainable Ocean Programme (WASOP) presents a timely opportunity to strengthen coordinated action against illegal fishing, improve ocean governance, and promote sustainable exploitation of marine resources across West Africa.

He said Nigeria is keen to fully engage with the programme to attract technical and financial support that will enhance enforcement capacity and boost the country’s blue economy ambitions.

The Minister stressed that illegal fishing remains a major threat to the marine ecosystem and coastal livelihoods, warning that IUU fishing continues to deplete fish stocks, undermine food security, and erode the economic well-being of coastal communities.

He said: “Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a direct threat to national security, food sovereignty, and the survival of our coastal communities. We cannot afford to stand by and watch our marine ecosystems be depleted and economic livelihoods eroded.

“We are calling for an era of stronger international collaboration, backed by aggressive monitoring and uncompromised enforcement systems, to permanently dismantle these illicit operations and safeguard our waters.”

Mr Oyetola also highlighted ongoing reforms in Nigeria’s maritime sector under the National Policy on Marine and Blue Economy, which prioritises innovation, private sector investment, and sustainable development of ocean resources.

He referenced key milestones in the sector, including improvements in port operations and logistics, as well as enhanced maritime security.

He further noted that Nigeria is strengthening initiatives aimed at expanding its maritime infrastructure and improving competitiveness in global trade.

The Minister also reiterated the need for broader cooperation beyond piracy control, urging development partners to support Nigeria in addressing environmental crimes, human trafficking, and illegal fishing in a more integrated and coordinated manner.

He sought increased technical assistance from the European Union, particularly in surveillance systems, fisheries monitoring, and enforcement capacity to strengthen Nigeria’s ability to curb IUU fishing across the Gulf of Guinea.

On his part, Mr Mignot reaffirmed the European Union’s commitment to strengthening maritime cooperation with Nigeria and supporting regional efforts to ensure safer and more sustainable oceans.

He highlighted the West Africa Sustainable Ocean Programme (WASOP), a major EU-funded initiative designed to promote integrated ocean governance, sustainable fisheries management, and protection of coastal and marine ecosystems across West African countries.

According to him, the programme will support improved coordination among coastal states, strengthen enforcement mechanisms, and promote a more inclusive and sustainable blue economy in the region.

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