Okomu Oil: Compelling Growth Story Despite Weak Earnings

Image

By Cordros Research

We update on OKOMUOIL following the 2018FY results and our recent discussion with management. After the unimpressive performance in 2018FY, we forecast EPS to grow by 2.3% in 2019 and 24.6% average over 2020-2021E, with a TP of N93.62/s (previously N91.57/s).

Our revised estimate is driven by both the resurgent price of CPO and the expected boost to volume from additional mature plantations coming on stream both in 2020 and 2021, which should offset persisting energy cost challenges.

CPO volume growth will be muted in 2019: We estimate that CPO volume grew by +22.1% in 2018, supported by higher production from oil mills (+8% y/y) as previous acreage areas replanted matured. With no new maturities expected until 2020E, we do not see CPO sales volume exceeding 2018 level in 2019.

Management, in our recent discussion, guided to flattish to marginal CPO volume growth in 2019. However, we look for strong volume growth in 2020 and 2021, with a further 4,500ha of mature plantation expected to come on stream from Extension II each year, according to management.

Overall, we estimate 46,036MTs will be achieved in 2019 (+1.3% y/y), and volume growth to average 19.7% over 2020-2023E.

Higher selling prices will support revenue: Elsewhere, the narrowing glut in the global CPO market (c. 2,464kMT vs. 4,562kMT in 2018) potentially bodes well for CPO prices in 2019.

Given that domestic CPO price tracks global price, we expect that higher international market prices will pass through to domestic prices.

To buttress, while unfavourable weather conditions are expected to weigh on global supply, demand resurgence in India – which accounts for 15% of global consumption – is expected to lift global demand.

By implication, we project mean CPO price to be 5% higher in 2019 vs. 2018.

On the contrary, however, we hold the view that persisting global stock accumulation will continue to weigh on rubber prices, thus limiting the scope for export sales for OKOMUOIL. Overall, we project +6.9% y/y revenue growth in 2019E and 28.8% average over 2020-2021E.

Albeit with limited pass through to gross margin: We revise our gross margin estimate for 2019E 36 bps lower to 73.1%, reflecting continued CoGS pressure. The company reported 74% y/y and 26% y/y expansion in Q4-18 and 2018FY CoGS respectively.

Management attributed the CoGs pressure in 2018 to energy supply challenges (as only 41% vs. target of 60%, of its energy requirements was supplied by BEDC1, with generator set supplying the balance) which (are not under its control and) have not been addressed.

Higher finance charges to cap pre-tax profits: With the one-year moratorium on the N1.95 billion concessionary loan from the Bank of Industry (BOI) ending last year, we expect interest payment to commence in 2019, potentially increasing finance charges by 83% y/y to N537 million, on our estimate.

Estimates and valuation: The net impact of our adjustment translates to growth in PBT and PAT of 5.2% y/y and 2.3% y/y respectively in 2019, and average EPS growth of 24.6% in 2020-2021E.

Our new TP of N93.6/s implies total upside of 21% after incorporating expected dividend yield of 4.0%.

OKOMUOIL currently trades at P/E and EV/EBITDA of 8.89x and 8.06x, significant discounts to its Middle East and Africa peer averages of 16.6x and 18.6x. We upgrade our recommendation to BUY, from HOLD.

Share
Related Stories
Image
29-September-2023

Oil Market Dips on Profit Taking, High Rates Worries

By Adedapo Adesanya The oil market retreated on Thursday, as traders took profits after prices soared recently while the space worried that high interest rates may weigh on demand. During the trading session, Brent futures fell by $1.17 or 1.2 per cent to settle at $95.38 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) declined by $1.97 or 2.1 per cent to close at $91.71 per barrel. The market had reached a 10-month high as some traders worried high oil prices would stoke inflation, encouraging the US Federal Reserve and other central banks to persist with rate hikes.

Image
30-September-2023

NGX Sheds N37bn as Investors Sell Stocks in Panic to Buy FX

By Dipo Olowookere Profit-taking persisted on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, as investors refused to tone down their profit-taking activities. It was observed that the market is gradually entering panic mode due to macroeconomic instability in the country, especially with the exchange rate of the Naira to the Dollar going above N1,000 in the parallel market. A stockbroker with one of the leading brokerage firms in the country, who asked not to be named, said the local bourse was witnessing panic selling due to investors liquidating their shares for Dollars. “This trend will continue for a while

Image
29-September-2023

Erisco Product Reviewer Fights Back, Threatens 500m Suit

By Bliss Okperan A lady who reviewed a product of Erisco Foods Limited, Nagiko Tomato Mix, Mrs Chioma Egodi, has threatened to demand the sum of N500 million from the chief executive of the company, Mr Eric Umeofia, for violating her fundamental human rights. Mrs Egodi said she purchased the product at the market with the intention of using it to cook stew for her family. However, when she tasted it, according to her, it tasted too much sugar, prompting her to post about it on Facebook. It was reported that Erisco was not happy with the negative review. She

Image
30-September-2023

Brent, WTI Shrink on Macroeconomic Worries, Profit Taking

By Adedapo Adesanya The prices of Brent futures and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures went down by about 1 per cent on Friday, due to macroeconomic concerns and sustained profit-taking. Data showed that Brent fell by 7 cents to $95.31 per barrel and WTI depreciated by 92 cents to $90.97. Prices rose about 30 per cent in the third quarter of the year helped by the production cuts by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+). This action squeezed global crude supply. Brent was about 2.2 per cent in the week and 27 per cent

More Stories
Image
14-December-2016

Railway Yet To Get 2016 Budget Allocation

By Dipo Olowookere Managing Director of the Nigeria Railway Corporation (NRC), Mr Fidet Okhiria, has informed the Senate that his agency was yet to receive over N330 million allocated for its capital projects captured in the 2016 budget. Mr Okhiria made this disclosure on Tuesday while addressing members of the Senate Committee on Land Transport. The NRC boss further said the corporation was underperforming because it is not well-funded, pointing out that the agency still works with obsolete machineries and workshop equipment and urged the lawmakers to “come to our assistance as the railway is critical to economic development.” According

Image
02-February-2019

Osinbajo Speaks on Involvement in Kogi Plane Crash

By Modupe Gbadeyanka On Saturday afternoon, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo was involved in an air mishap, which caused a scare. A chopper carrying the nation’s number two citizen crash landed in Kogi State, but those on board the helicopter survived. After incident, Mr Osinbajo confirmed that he was fine and thanked everyone who expressed concern over the incident. “We are safe and sound! Thank you to everyone who has expressed concern and thank you to the crew who managed the situation well. “We believe that God will continue to keep us and Nigeria safe even as we go higher. We

Image
02-September-2016

Nigeria Signs $5.1b Rail Deals With China

By Dipo Olowookere Two contracts worth $1.5 billion have been signed by the Federal Government with the China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation for the construction and modernisation of rail lines in different parts of the country. These are the Kano-Kaduna Segment 3 of the Lagos-Kano rail modernisation project with a contract sum of $1.68 billion, and the Calabar-Port Harcourt Segment 1, which extends to Onne Deep Seaport of the coastal rail project at a cost of $3.4 billion. According to the Minister of Transportation, Mr Rotimi Amaechi, who signed on behalf of the FG, the segmentation of the same contract

Image
13-September-2016

How To Boost Students’ Performance In Maths—Teacher

By Dipo Olowookere A Mathematics teacher in Ogun State named Mr Kolawole Bello has highlighted ways to stem the continuous poor performance of students in Mathematics. Mr Bello, who works at The Ambassador College, Ota in Ogun State, while speaking at the on-going Cowbellpedia Mathematics Television Quiz Show in Lagos, stressed that parents and guardians have a major role to play in sustaining the interest of their children in the subject, which is dreaded by many. According to him, parents must strive to complement the efforts of teachers in encouraging and supporting students’ interest in Mathematics and other science subjects.

Image
01-August-2023

Nigeria Has Saved N1trn from Fuel Subsidy Removal—Tinubu

By Adedapo Adesanya President Bola Tinubu has claimed that his administration has saved N1 trillion after the removal of fuel subsidies, reiterating plans to use the saved money in education, healthcare, and the economy. Giving a national broadcast on Monday night, Mr Tinubu pleaded with Nigerians facing the heat brought about by the regime that had gulped more than N10 trillion in cost, which he said had only benefitted smugglers and fraudsters. He noted that his administration would also funnel some of the saved cost into providing student loans for vulnerable students in tertiary institutions across the country. In his

Image
11-October-2022

Nigeria’s Health Indicators Among Worst in Africa—Report

By Aduragbemi Omiyale A new report by ONE Campaign has revealed that the health sector in Nigeria is woeful, with key indicators showing that urgent steps are needed to put things in order. For example, the report noted that despite the realities of the COVID-19 pandemic, Nigeria’s health budget as a percentage of the total budget is declining, with 13 states reducing their fiscal allocations to the health sector. It was observed that only two states (Kaduna and Sokoto) consistently met the 15 per cent health allocation target between 2020 and 2022, while public health allocations per person have fallen

Image
02-December-2019

International Breweries Gets NSE’s Nod for N164.4bn Rights Issue

By Modupe Gbadeyanka The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) has granted the application filed by the board of International Breweries Plc for the listing of its proposed rights issue on the platform. The breweries giant is planning to raise fresh funds of up to N164.4 billion by selling shares to its existing shareholders at a unit price of N9 per share, N1 lower than N10 it traded on the floor of the NSE on Monday (today). The company had through its stockbroker, Chapel Hill Denham Securities Limited, filed the application to the NSE. The request for approval was admitting the rights

Image
29-August-2023

Naira Gains at Official Market, Falls at P2P, Parallel Market

By Adedapo Adesanya The Naira appreciated against the greenback in the Investors and Exporters (I&E) segment of the foreign exchange (FX) market on Monday by 0.81 per cent or N6.30 to sell at N772.12/$1 compared with last Friday’s closing price of N778.42/$1. Also, in the official market, the Naira improved its value against the Pound Sterling by N3.67 to trade at N973.09/£1 compared to the previously traded rate of N976.76/£1 and appreciated against the Euro by N1.25 to close at N835.73/€1 versus N836.98/€1. The Nigerian currency gained weight on these foreign currencies despite a shortfall in the country’s external reserves

Ad
Ad
Recent Stories
Image
02-October-2023

LCCI Seeks Upward Review of N30,000 Minimum Wage

By Adedapo Adesanya The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has described Nigeria’s minimum wage of N30,000 ($30) for 30 days as extremely poor and called for an urgent upward review of the wage structure. The President of LCCI, Mr Michael Olawale-Cole, during the chamber’s Independence Day message on Sunday, said an appraisal of the past 63 years showed that the Nigerian economy had performed sub-optimally with huge implications on citizens’ welfare and rising uncertainty. It noted that the economy was struggling with difficult conditions including high inflation, weak currency, declining reserves, falling household purchasing power, rising debt burden,

Image
02-October-2023

Kariko, Weissman Win Nobel Medicine Prize for COVID-19 Vaccines Research

By Adedapo Adesanya Scientists Katalin Kariko and Drew Weissman won the 2023 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for discoveries enabling the development of COVID-19 vaccines, the award-giving body said on Monday. The prize, among the most prestigious in the scientific world, is selected by the Nobel Assembly of Sweden’s Karolinska Institute Medical University and also comes with 11 million Swedish crowns (about $1 million). “The 2023 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman for their discoveries concerning nucleoside base modifications that enabled the development of effective mRNA vaccines against COVID-19,” the

Image
02-October-2023

Ecobank Alerts Customers on Rise in SIM Swap Fraud

By Modupe Gbadeyanka Customers of Ecobank Nigeria have been urged to remain on the alert as some scammers are taking advantage of SIM swaps to dupe their unsuspecting victims. The financial institution issued this alert in an email message to customers, urging them not to lose guard. The bank said phone users, who attached their mobile numbers to their bank accounts, to take extra caution when swapping their SIM cards, so as not to be victims of fraudsters. The lender explained to customers that SIM swap fraud occurs when scammers use your phone number to access your accounts. “Scammers impersonate

Image
02-October-2023

Oando-Eni Deal: Workers Threaten to Shutdown Operations

By Adedapo Adesanya  The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) has vowed to down tools and shut down all oil field locations if demands following the acquisition of Nigerian Agip Oil Company (NAOC) are not met. Business Post had reported in September that Oando Plc had acquired a 100 per cent stake in the Nigerian subsidiary of Italian giant, Eni. However, the deal allegedly happened without management addressing the welfare and benefits of the workers and without due process. The development has led to several protests by members of PENGASSAN since the beginning of September 2023.

Image
02-October-2023

Exploring The Capabilities Of The ChatGPT Trading Bot In Today’s Market

Traders Union (TU) recently took an interest in ChatGPT, a chatbot by OpenAI. Think of ChatGPT as a super-smart robot friend who loves to chat about almost anything! It’s famous for giving detailed answers to loads of questions. But, like every friend, it might get things wrong sometimes. There’s a free version everyone can chat with, and a fancier version called ChatGPT Plus for those who want more. Some even call it the “ChatGPT trading bot” because of its extensive knowledge about trading. ChatGPT’s trading capabilities Without a doubt, ChatGPT has carved a niche for itself in the automated trading

Image
02-October-2023

Tinubu Increases Planned Monthly Allowance to N35,000

By Adedapo Adesanya President Bola Tinubu has increased the initially proposed monthly allowance for federal civil servants from N25,000 to N35,000. The money is still to be paid monthly for six months. The increment was announced in a statement by the Minister of Information, Mr Mohammed Idris. This development came less than 24 hours after Mr Tinubu on his first Independence Day broadcast on Sunday morning announced the monthly payment of N25,000 allowance to junior civil servants to cushion the effect of the impact of petrol subsidy removal. He said the allowance would be paid for six months. However, after

Image
01-October-2023

Boosting Website Performance: Tips for Speed and Efficiency

By Rahul Baitha In today’s digital age, where instant gratification is the norm, website performance plays a critical role in delivering a positive user experience. Visitors expect websites to load quickly and respond seamlessly to their interactions. If your website lags or stumbles, you risk losing valuable traffic and potential customers. As a web designer or business owner, optimizing your website’s performance should be a top priority. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll explore essential tips and techniques to boost your website’s speed and efficiency. Understanding Website Performance Before diving into optimization strategies, it’s essential to grasp the fundamentals of website

Image
01-October-2023

NDLEA Nabs Suspected Kingpin in UK Drug Export Bust

By Adedapo Adesanya The National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) has arrested a suspect wanted for attempts to ship illicit drug consignments to the United Kingdom. This was made known in a statement signed by the NDLEA spokesman, Mr Femi Babafemi, on Sunday. He further disclosed arrests made by NDLEA operatives through interdiction operations that led to the seizure of four tons of illicit substances in the past week. According to the agency, the suspect, Mr Obiorah Chigozie, had been on its wanted list since September 15. This, he said, was when a consignment of 1.500kg skunk concealed in flour

Image
01-October-2023

BUA Cement Slashes Ex-Factory Prices to N3,500

By Aduragbemi Omiyale The management of BUA Cement Plc has announced a reduction in the prices of its cement from its factory without the transportation costs to N3,500 per bag (50kg). The cement maker confirmed this development in a statement issued on Sunday, noting that it was part of efforts to make sure customers get the products at cheaper prices. In the statement, BUA Cement disclosed that the slash in cement prices is from Monday, October 2, 2023, urging its distributors not to fleet the end users. The firm said, “All pending, undelivered orders which had been paid for at

Image
01-October-2023

NITDA Opens Applications for Tech Accelerator Fellowship

By Adedapo Adesanya The federal government through the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) has opened applications for a tech startup accelerator fellowship program to empower Nigerians with innovative ideas. The Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, Mr Bosun Tijani, said the preparations for the training commenced in August with a meeting of stakeholders in tech to co-create innovative ways to achieve the target. He added that the meeting was the first in a series of ecosystem engagements to ensure that the government gets the best solutions from within. The new initiative from the NITDA is part of the