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Only Three States Can Survive Without Federal Allocation—BudgIT

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By Adedapo Adesanya  

Only three of the 36 states of the federation can finance their recurrent expenditure without depending on the monthly allocation from the federal government, a report from Nigeria’s civic tech organization, BudgIT, has said.

This report published under the title State of States 2019, showed that only Lagos, Rivers, and Akwa-Ibom States can finance themselves without the disbursement from the Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC).

The report, released in Abuja on Wednesday, confirmed that if the allocation from the federal government were to be affected by any event such as fluctuations in oil prices, many states would be at risk.

The State of States report revealed that the fiscal sustainability of Nigerian states is anchored on three key indices; Index A: states’ ability to meet their recurrent expenditures independently of the Federal Government (weighted average of 0.35 per cent), Index B: the state’s ability to meet their recurrent expenditures with both its internally generated revenue (IGR) and federal allocations (weighted average of 0.50 per cent), and Index C: how long it would take states to pay off their total debt stock (weighted average of 0.15 per cent).

The report also showed that considering the ability of states to meet up with their recurrent expenditure obligation with their IGR, Value Added Tax (VAT), 13 percent share of oil derivation paid to oil-producing states, states like Lagos with index 0.48 sits at the top, followed by Rivers with 0.73 and Akwa Ibom with 0.91 in third.

In its analysis, BudgIT said it was a recurring development to see states in the South-South region running high recurrent bills, mainly driven by the high revenues earned as a result of the 13 percent derivation principle.

The firm said it was also interesting to see states such as Cross River with a high budget of N1.04 trillion spend less than N93 billion on an annual basis.

Speaking on the outcome of the report, the Lead Researcher, BudgiT, Mr Orji Uche, said only 19 states out of 36 could meet their expenditure with internally generated revenue and federal allocation.

“We discovered states, such as Delta, running huge recurrent expenditure reaching N200 billion. Bayelsa, despite its size and population, has a high recurrent bill as high as N137 billion, compared with Ebonyi with a recurrent bill of N30 billion, Sokoto N38 billion, Jigawa N43 billion, Yobe N35 billion etc,” he said.

BudgIT recommended that Nigeria needs to create incentives for states to expand growth and earning potential, thereby activating resources needed to improve the state of health, education, and access to opportunity.

It further recommended states to invest in their unique resources to boost their income by keeping their recurrent costs lean to free up more spending for social and economic infrastructure.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Coronation Sees February 2026 Inflation Cooling to 14.12%

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Analysts at Coronation Research are projecting the inflation rate for February 2026 to moderate by 0.98 per cent to 14.12 per cent from the 15.10 per cent recorded in the preceding month.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the inflation numbers today, Monday, March 16, 2026.

In a note released over the weekend, Coronation Research disclosed that the fall in the average prices of goods and services for last month would be impacted by a decline in the prices of food items.

“Our projection is supported by favourable base effects, easing food price pressures, and slight appreciation of the Naira,” a part of the report sighted by Business Post read.

The organisation revealed that the ongoing government interventions in the agricultural sector to improve food supply conditions are beginning to ease pressures within the food component of the consumer basket.

It further stated that “appreciation of the Naira to N1,363.40/1$ from N1,386.55/1$ in January is expected to reduce the cost of imported food items.”

However, it stressed that the ongoing US/Israel-Iran war was capable of reversing the deflationary trends because of the rising global energy prices.

“Also, the $200 million financing approved by the African Development Bank (AfDB) Group to scale up priority agricultural investments is expected to be disbursed in March, but its impact is likely to materialise in the medium to long term, with limited immediate effects on food supply and prices,” it said.

Coronation Research also disclosed that the recent energy market developments could keep core inflation sticky in the near term, as average Bonny Light crude oil prices rose to $72.33 per barrel in February 2026 from $68.04 per barrel in January.

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Economy

SERAP Calls for Investigation into NNPC’s N5.9bn Rebranding

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) has called on President Bola Tinubu to order an investigation into the alleged N5.9 billion rebranding cost of the old Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation into the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.

In a Sunday statement, SERAP urged Mr Tinubu to direct the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Mr Lateef Fagbemi, alongside anti-corruption agencies, to look into the matter.

The group further urged the President to direct the panel to identify and invite officials who authorised the payment and contractors who handled the project for questioning.

“We’ve urged President Bola Tinubu to urgently direct the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Mr Lateef Fagbemi, SAN, and appropriate anti-corruption agencies to promptly investigate the alleged expenditure of about ₦5.9 billion reportedly spent on the rebranding of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).

“We also urged him to direct the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) to identify the officials who approved and paid the amount, and the contractor(s) who collected the money, and to invite them for questioning,” the organisation stated.

SERAP further alleged that the NNPC reportedly paid N2.9 billion for incorporation expenses from petroleum product proceeds, while the National Petroleum Investment Management Services (NAPIMS) also charged N2.9 billion against crude oil revenue for the same purpose.

The group argued that the total cost was valued at about N5.9 billion, which was spent by the NNPCL for the rebranding.

“There ought to be full transparency and accountability regarding the reported ₦5.9 billion spent on rebranding NNPC to NNPCL.”

SERAP emphasised that Nigerians have the right to know who approved the expenditure, who received the money, and whether due process was followed.

“Any investigation into the rebranding project should determine whether the N5.9 billion represents value for money, lawful spending of public funds, and compliance with transparency and accountability requirements,” the statement concluded.

Business Post reports that NNPC became a limited liability company on July 1, 2022, under the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) in line with the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which was signed into law on August 16, 2021, by late President Muhammadu Buhari.

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Economy

NASD Market Falls 1.18% to Extend Losing Streak

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended its stay in the south for the fourth consecutive session after it shed 1.18 per cent on Friday, March 13.

The unlisted securities market recorded a loss despite closing without a price decliner, and ending with two price gainers led by Geo Fluids Plc, which gained 1o Kobo to sell at N3.10 per share compared with the previous day’s N3.00 per share. Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc appreciated during the session by 2 Kobo to trade at 54 Kobo per unit versus Thursday’s closing price of 52 Kobo per unit.

When the market closed for the day, the market capitalisation lost N29.83 billion to close at N2.489 trillion compared with the N2.519 trillion it finished a day earlier, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) crashed by 49.84 points to 4,160.46 points from 4,210.31 points.

Market activity improved yesterday, as the volume of transactions rose 179.5 per cent to 10.4 million units from 3.7 million units, but the value of trades declined by 68.4 per cent to N29.9 million from N95.0 million, while the number of deals weakened by 11.5 per cent to 46 deals from 52 deals.

Central Securities Clearing Systems (CSCS) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 38.4 million units worth N2.4 billion, Okitipupa Plc followed with 6.4 million units traded at N1.1 billion, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc transacted 6.3 million units for N584.3 million.

Resourcery Plc ended the trading session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.6 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 130.8 million units valued at N504.5 million, and CSCS Plc with 38.4 million units worth N2.4 billion.

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