Economy
OPEC Revises Oil Demand Growth to 95.89mb/d in 2021
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2021 as a result of uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic despite the roll-out of vaccines in several countries.
The oil cartel in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) forecast that demand will total 95.89 million barrels per day next year in contrast to its previous forecast of 96.26 million barrels per day.
The downward revision reflects the uncertainty surrounding the impact of COVID-19 on transportation fuels in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies in the first half of next year.
OPEC estimates their recovery to be capped at 2019 levels and forecasts for a mild winter in the northern hemisphere are pressuring the outlook for middle distillates demand.
Economic growth next year and the related impact on oil demand recovery depends on uncertainties surrounding the pandemic, policies of the incoming US administrations, Brexit and trade negotiations, the cartel said.
Recent news regarding vaccination programmes in most major economies provides upside to next year’s GDP growth forecast of 4.4 per cent.
The UK became the first country to start rolling out the COVID-19 vaccine that US firm Pfizer has developed with Germany’s Biontech earlier this month.
The organisation assumes vaccines will be gradually available globally by the second half of 2021. It said, “Earlier availability would allow a faster-than-anticipated move towards normalisation,” the report said.
Lower transportation fuel demand in the US and OECD Europe led to a downward revision in OPEC’s demand forecast for 2020, which is now pegged at 89.99 million barrels per day, 9.77 million barrels per day lower than 2019. In November, the OPEC report predicted a 9.75 million barrels per day drop in this year’s consumption.
On the supply side, non-OPEC liquids have been revised lower for this year and for 2021. Non-OPEC supply is now expected to average 62.67 million barrels per day this year, down by 2.5 million barrels per day from 2019.
Last month’s report estimated a 2.43 million barrels per day drop to 62.73 million barrels per day. This change reflects lower-than-expected output in the fourth quarter of 2020, mainly in the US, partially offset by revisions to output in Russia and Canada.
Non-OPEC supply is forecast to rebound by 850,000 b/d to average 63.52 million barrels per day next year, a slower pace of growth than the 950,000 barrels per day increase predicted in last month’s MOMR.
“This is mainly due to downward revisions to Russia, following the new decision taken at the recent ministerial meeting of the OPEC and Non-OPEC countries participating in the declaration of co-operation,” the report said.
The trimmed Non-OPEC supply forecast for this year has resulted in an upward revision to the call on OPEC members’ own crude, which is now estimated at 22.2 million barrels per day in 2020, down by 7.1 million barrels per day from 2019. But the forecast call on OPEC crude for next year has been revised down by almost 200,000 barrels per day from last month’s report, to 27.17 million barrels per day.
OPEC crude production averaged 25.11 million barrels per day in November, up by 707,000 barrels per day from October.
Economy
Peter Obi Raises Eyebrows Over Tinubu’s $11.6bn Debt Servicing Plan
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 general elections, Mr Peter Obi, has expressed worry over plans by the administration of President Bola Tinubu to spend about $11.6 billion on debt servicing.
In a post on his social media platform on Monday, the opposition politician criticised this move, saying it is not good for the country.
He also said this action “should concern anyone interested in the country’s economic future and long-term development.”
The former Governor of Anambra State kicked against the penchant of the government to borrow from various sources without anything to show for it.
“There is nothing inherently wrong with borrowing when it is guided by prudence and directed toward productive investment, he noted, stressing that countries such as Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, and Indonesia are all heavily indebted, yet their borrowings are largely channelled into education, healthcare, infrastructure, and innovation – sectors that generate long-term economic returns and sustain repayment capacity.”
According to him, “despite high debt levels, their obligations remain more manageable because they are tied to measurable productivity.”
He said, “Nigeria’s situation, however, is markedly different. A huge proportion of past borrowing has been directed toward consumption, with limited visible or sustainable developmental outcomes to justify the scale of indebtedness.”
“It is also important to note that a huge portion of the debt currently being serviced was accumulated under the Tinubu administration itself, while borrowing has continued at a significant pace. The administration’s recent external borrowing alone includes about $6 billion (from First Abu Dhabi Bank in the UAE—$5 billion, and UK Export Finance via Citibank London—$1 billion), a further $1.25 billion under consideration from the World Bank, and an additional $516 million arranged through Deutsche Bank, bringing the latest known external loan commitments to roughly $7.8 billion. In addition, domestic borrowing through monthly bond issuances continues to add to the overall debt stock,” the businessman also stated.
“Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s 2026 budget shows that health is N2.46 trillion, education is N2.56 trillion, and poverty alleviation is N865 billion, giving a combined total of about N5.885 trillion for these three critical sectors.
“By comparison, debt servicing at about $11.6 billion (approximately N17–N18 trillion, depending on exchange rate assumptions) is almost three times higher than the total allocation to health, education, and social protection combined. This imbalance highlights a troubling fiscal reality in which debt obligations increasingly crowd out investment in human capital and poverty reduction.
“Moreover, even within the limited allocations to these sectors, funds may not be fully released, and a significant portion of what is eventually released could be misappropriated,” he further stated.
Mr Obi said, “The central issue is not borrowing itself, but whether borrowed funds are being converted into measurable productivity, inclusive growth, and improved living standards. Without this, debt servicing shifts from being a temporary fiscal obligation to a long-term structural burden that constrains development and deepens economic vulnerability.”
Economy
Pathway Advisors Closes Fresh N16.76bn Oversubscribed Veritasi Homes CP
By Adedapo Adesanya
Pathway Advisors Limited, an issuing house and financial advisory firm, has announced the successful completion of the Series 2 Commercial Paper issuance for Veritasi Homes & Properties Plc.
The Series 2 offer, issued under Veritasi Homes’ newly registered N20.00 billion Commercial Paper Programme, raised N16.76 billion, significantly above its initial N12.00 billion target on the back of strong institutional demand.
This issuance builds on the company’s track record in the Nigerian debt capital market and follows the recently concluded N10 billion 3-year 20 per cent Series 1 Fixed Rate Bond Issuance, further reinforcing investor confidence in Veritasi Homes’ strong credit profile.
The 364-day tenor instrument attracted robust participation from a diverse pool of institutional investors, underscoring sustained confidence in the Company’s financial strength, operating model, and governance standards.
Commenting on the deal, the Founder/CEO of Pathway Advisors Limited, Mr Adekunle Alade (MBA, FCA, M.CIod), noted that the outcome further validates investor appetite for well-structured transactions in the Nigerian capital market.
“The strong oversubscription speaks to the market’s confidence in Veritasi Homes’ performance, governance, and repayment track record. We are pleased to continue supporting issuers with strong fundamentals in accessing efficient funding.’’
He further highlighted that Veritasi Homes’ consistent market activities since 2022, including successful issuances and full redemption of matured obligations, continue to strengthen its reputation among institutional investors.
“Pathway Advisors Limited remains committed to maintaining its leadership position within Nigeria’s capital markets through the origination and execution of transformative, value-driven, and commercially viable transactions by deploying innovative financial solutions and facilitating strategic capital formation across critical sectors.
“We are committed to supporting credible corporates in accessing efficient short-term and long-term financing solutions within the Nigerian capital market,” he said in a statement on Monday.
Speaking on the transaction, the Managing Director/CEO of Veritasi Homes & Properties Plc, Mr Nola Adetola, described the outcome as a strong endorsement of the company’s fundamentals.
“This result reflects the resilience of our business model, our growing market reputation, and the continued trust of the investment community. We are grateful to all institutional investors for their confidence in Veritasi Homes.”
He added that the proceeds from the issuance will be deployed to support the company’s working capital requirements, enhance liquidity, and complete the ongoing development activities across its real estate portfolio.
Mr Adetola also commended Pathway Advisors Limited for its advisory and arranging role in the successful execution of the transaction.
Economy
SEC Okays Migration to T+1 Settlement Cycle for Capital Market Transactions
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the transition to the T+1 settlement cycle for capital market transactions from June 1, 2026.
This is coming some months after Nigeria moved from the T+3 settlement cycle to the T+2 settlement cycle.
The T+ settlement cycle is the number of working days required to complete a capital market transaction, such as the trading of securities, shares, and others, from the first day the trade was executed by an investor.
In a notice on Monday, the SEC, which is the apex capital market regulator in Nigeria, said it was authorising the new system to “promote an efficient, fair, and transparent capital market.”
Under the new arrangement, equities and commodities traded by investors at the market would be cleared and settled by the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) within one day.
The agency noted that the migration to a T+1 settlement cycle forms part of its ongoing market modernisation initiatives aimed at enhancing market efficiency and strengthening risk management. reducing counterparty exposure, improving liquidity, and aligning the Nigerian capital market with international standards and global best practices.
“Accordingly, all eligible trades executed in the Nigerian capital market shall settle one business day after the trade date (T+1),” a part of the statement noted.
It was stressed that “Friday, May 29, 2026, shall be the final trading day under the existing T+2 settlement cycle. Trades executed on Friday, May 29, 2026, and Monday, June 1, 2026, shall both settle on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. All trades executed from Monday, June 1, 2026, onward shall be subject to the T+1 settlement cycle.”
SEC tasked all capital market operators, securities exchanges, clearing and settlement infrastructure providers, custodians, registrars, issuers, and other relevant stakeholders to take all necessary measures to ensure full operational readiness and compliance with the new settlement framework.
“Market participants are expected to review and align their systems, processes, controls, and operational workflows ahead of the implementation date,” it further stated, promising to continue to engage stakeholders and monitor the implementation process to ensure an orderly and seamless transition.
The regulator said it remains committed to strengthening market integrity, enhancing investor confidence, and fostering the development of a modern. resilient and globally competitive Nigerian capital market.
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