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OPEC Revises Oil Demand Growth to 95.89mb/d in 2021

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Worsening Oil Demand

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2021 as a result of uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic despite the roll-out of vaccines in several countries.

The oil cartel in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) forecast that demand will total 95.89 million barrels per day next year in contrast to its previous forecast of 96.26 million barrels per day.

The downward revision reflects the uncertainty surrounding the impact of COVID-19 on transportation fuels in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies in the first half of next year.

OPEC estimates their recovery to be capped at 2019 levels and forecasts for a mild winter in the northern hemisphere are pressuring the outlook for middle distillates demand.

Economic growth next year and the related impact on oil demand recovery depends on uncertainties surrounding the pandemic, policies of the incoming US administrations, Brexit and trade negotiations, the cartel said.

Recent news regarding vaccination programmes in most major economies provides upside to next year’s GDP growth forecast of 4.4 per cent.

The UK became the first country to start rolling out the COVID-19 vaccine that US firm Pfizer has developed with Germany’s Biontech earlier this month.

The organisation assumes vaccines will be gradually available globally by the second half of 2021. It said, “Earlier availability would allow a faster-than-anticipated move towards normalisation,” the report said.

Lower transportation fuel demand in the US and OECD Europe led to a downward revision in OPEC’s demand forecast for 2020, which is now pegged at 89.99 million barrels per day, 9.77 million barrels per day lower than 2019. In November, the OPEC report predicted a 9.75 million barrels per day drop in this year’s consumption.

On the supply side, non-OPEC liquids have been revised lower for this year and for 2021. Non-OPEC supply is now expected to average 62.67 million barrels per day this year, down by 2.5 million barrels per day from 2019.

Last month’s report estimated a 2.43 million barrels per day drop to 62.73 million barrels per day. This change reflects lower-than-expected output in the fourth quarter of 2020, mainly in the US, partially offset by revisions to output in Russia and Canada.

Non-OPEC supply is forecast to rebound by 850,000 b/d to average 63.52 million barrels per day next year, a slower pace of growth than the 950,000 barrels per day increase predicted in last month’s MOMR.

“This is mainly due to downward revisions to Russia, following the new decision taken at the recent ministerial meeting of the OPEC and Non-OPEC countries participating in the declaration of co-operation,” the report said.

The trimmed Non-OPEC supply forecast for this year has resulted in an upward revision to the call on OPEC members’ own crude, which is now estimated at 22.2 million barrels per day in 2020, down by 7.1 million barrels per day from 2019. But the forecast call on OPEC crude for next year has been revised down by almost 200,000 barrels per day from last month’s report, to 27.17 million barrels per day.

OPEC crude production averaged 25.11 million barrels per day in November, up by 707,000 barrels per day from October.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

NASD OTC Exchange Inches Up 0.03% as CSCS Outshines Four Price Decliners

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Nigerian OTC securities exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc bested four price decliners on the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Monday, April 27. The alternative stock market opened the week bullish during the session with a 0.03 per cent uptick.

According to data, the security depository company added N2.61 to its share price to close at N76.26 per unit compared with the preceding session’s N78.87 per unit.

As a result, the market capitalisation of the platform increased by N820 million to N2.425 trillion from N2.424 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) gained 1.38 points to finish at 4,053.97 points compared with the 4,052.58 points it ended last Friday.

The four price losers were led by NASD Plc, which slumped by N3.80 to sell at N34.70 per share versus N38.50 per share. FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc fell by N1.45 to N98.10 per unit from N99.55 per unit, Food Concepts Plc slid by 27 Kobo to N2.43 per share from N2.70 per share, and Geo-Fluids Plc dipped by 9 Kobo to N2.91 per unit from N3.00 per unit.

The value of securities transacted by market participants went down by 82.0 per cent to N7.4 million from N41.3 million units, the volume of securities declined by 28.5 per cent to 319,831 units from 447,403 units, and the number of deals dropped by 34.1 per cent to 29 deals from 44 deals.

Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc was the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 59.6 million units sold for N4.0 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units exchanged for N1.9 billion.

Also, GNI Plc was the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with a turnover of 400 million units worth N1.2 billion.

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Economy

Naira Opens Week Weaker at N1,364/$ at NAFEX After N5.80 Loss

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NAFEX Rate

By Adedapo Adesanya

The first trading day of the week in the currency market was bearish for the Naira in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, April 27.

Yesterday, it lost N5.80 or 0.43 per cent against the United States Dollar to trade at N1,364.24/$1, in contrast to the N1,358.44/$1 it was traded last Friday.

In the same vein, the Nigerian currency depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N13.70 to close at N1,847.72/£1 versus the preceding session’s N1,834.02/£1, and slumped against the Euro by N11.56 to sell at N1,602.29/€1 versus N1,590.73/€1.

Also, the Nigerian Naira tumbled against the greenback during the trading day by N5 to quote at N1,385/$1 compared with the previous rate of N1,380/$1, and at the GTBank FX desk, it traded flat at N1,370/$1.

The poor performance of the domestic currency could be attributed to liquidity shortage at the official currency market on Monday, which came amid surging demand for international payments. At $76.50 million, interbank liquidity printed higher across 79 deals, up from the $43.572 million reported on Friday.

Nigeria’s gross external reserves declined to $48.45 billion amid a month-long decline in inflows, amid uncertainties in the global commodity market. The depletion of foreign reserves could be partly attributed to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s intervention in the FX market.

The market remains perturbed by persistent concerns over liquidity constraints, policy transparency, and weakening confidence in Nigeria’s FX market, while boosters, including oil prices, continue to look rocky due to stalled discussions and unclear ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran.

A look at the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) has been rejected near $79,000 three times in eight sessions, leaving the level as the de facto ceiling of its current trading range even as major cryptocurrencies trade lower over the past day. It lost 0.9 per cent to sell at $77,003.61.

Analysts say that upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decisions and top tech firms’ earnings this week could provide the catalyst to push bitcoin decisively above $80,000.

The market also continued to weigh Iran’s interim deal proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which failed to advance over the weekend. The White House said US officials were discussing the latest Iranian proposal but maintained “red lines” on any deal to end the eight-week war.

Solana (SOL) dropped 1.8 per cent to $84.25, Ripple (XRP) went down by 1.6 per cent to $1.39, Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 1.3 per cent to $2,290.00, Binance Coin (BNB) declined by 0.5 per cent to $625.18, and Cardano (ADA) fell by 0.2 per cent to $0.2480.

However, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 2.0 per cent to $0.1002, and TRON (TRX) appreciated by 0.2 per cent to $0.3242, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.

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Economy

NASCON Targets Deeper Cost Optimisation, Accelerated Digital Transformation, Others

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NASCON AGM shareholders

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

One of the leading salt makers in Nigeria, NASCON Allied Industries Plc, has set its eyes on some strategies aimed to deliver more value to shareholders.

The chief executive of the company, Mrs Aderemi Saka, said efforts are being made to surpass the performance of last year.

In the 2025 financial year, the organisation recorded a 27 per cent growth in revenue, while post-tax profit grew by over 100 per cent to N33.5 billion, with the earnings per share (EPS) expanding by 115 per cent to N12.41 from N5.77 Kobo in the previous year.

The impressive performance, attributed to a clear strategic vision, disciplined execution and sustained focus on cost-saving initiatives across production, logistics and fleet management, resulted in a 200 per cent increase in dividend payout to shareholders to N6 per share.

Mrs Saka, at the firm’s Annual General Meeting (AGM) in Lagos, said the strategic priorities for the coming year include deeper cost optimisation, expanded market penetration, strengthened energy diversification and sustainability initiatives, as well as accelerated digital transformation and process automation.

Earlier, the chairman of NASCON, Mr Olakunle Alake, informed shareholders that the achievements for last year were due to improved operational efficiency, strict cost management and the dedication of the company’s workforce.

“The operating environment in 2025 was characterised by economic volatility, persistent inflation and structural changes across key sectors. Yet, NASCON remained resilient and strategically focused, delivering outstanding value to shareholders,” Mr Alake said.

He noted that operational sustainability remains a core pillar of the organisation’s strategy, stressing that during the year, NASCON introduced Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) trucks into its logistics fleet to reduce fuel costs and minimise exposure to diesel price volatility.

In addition, the company’s state-of-the-art salt refinery, its largest production facility, now runs entirely on natural gas, significantly boosting efficiency while reinforcing NASCON’s commitment to environmental sustainability.

A director in the organisation, Mrs Tonya Lawani, emphasised that the firm remains firmly committed to the principles that have driven its excellent performance, noting that NASCON approaches the new financial year from a position of strength, with further opportunities for growth and improvement.

Speaking on behalf of shareholders, Mr Faruk Umar expressed strong confidence in the company’s trajectory, citing NASCON’s rising share price, which recently crossed the N100 mark, and projecting further appreciation.

He commended the quality of the Board and management team, noting that strong leadership and recent executive appointments have positioned the entity to deliver even greater value to all stakeholders.

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