Economy

Opportunities in a Bear Market – Two Stocks to Watch

Published

5 years ago

09/09/2019

By FSDH Research

The Nigerian equity market, as measured by the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI), depreciated by 12.42 percent as at the end of August 2019.

Our analysis of the performance of the equity market so far in 2019 shows that the Index recorded the highest depreciation of 7.5 percent in July.

FSDH Research notes that the declining crude oil price and fear of a possible global recession had negative impacts on the equity market.

Despite the current bearish trend in the market, we spot opportunities in the equity market. The two stocks we highlight here are: Zenith Bank and GTBank. Each has a history of good performance and good dividend payment; we believe the short-to-medium term outlook of these stocks are good. Therefore, investors should position in them as their share prices have recently dropped significantly.

Zenith Bank and GTBank are both strong players in the Nigerian banking sector. They both have footprints among the top-quality corporate customers. Both banks have consistent records of good asset quality and earnings.

They focus on low cost deposits from retail customers, therefore their cost of funds are low. This enables them to have good interest margin to drive profitability. They have remained the most profitable banks by absolute profit (Profit Before Tax and Profit After Tax).

The two banks have invested considerably in technology and deploy this service to existing customers and attract new ones. This has also generated a lot of non-interest income for them. Both banks operate a commercial banking licence with international focus.

FSDH Research’s analysis shows that Zenith Bank recorded improvements in both the top-line and bottom-line in Half Year (HY1) 2019 over the corresponding period of last year. The major drivers of the performance are an increase in non-interest income and its cost optimization strategy.

Although the Gross Earnings of GTBank dropped marginally in HY1 2019, it managed to record improved performance in profitability.

We attribute the drop in the gross earning to the decrease in interest income due to a drop in interest rate during the period. The growth in non-interest income and low interest expenses were mainly responsible for the growth in profitability

Our analysis of the latest results shows that GTBank is more efficient than Zenith Bank. Despite that, Zenith Bank is one of the most efficient banks in Nigeria. The efficiency ratio shows that Zenith Bank recorded the following as at HY1 2019; Net Interest Margin 9 percent; Profit Before Tax (PBT) Margin 34 percent; Profit After Tax (PAT) Margin 27 percent; Return on Equity (ROE) 11 percent (annualised to 22 percent) and cost–to–income ratio 53 percent.

GTBank however, recorded Net Interest Margin 10 percent; PBT Margin 52 percent; PAT Margin 45 percent; ROE 16 percent (annualised to 32 percent) and cost–to–income ratio 37.6 percent.

The Trailing Earning Per Share (EPS) for both banks stood at N6.39 as at HY1 2019. The Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio for Zenith Bank stood at 5.3 percent while that of GTBank stood at 6.8 percent and they are among the lowest in the banking industry.

Zenith Bank and GTBank have liquid balance sheets with well-diversified earning assets and sources of funding. Zenith Bank’s total assets as at HY1 2019 stood at N5.9 trillion while GTBank’s total asset stood at N3.6 trillion. Both banks’ assets are largely funded by customers’ deposits, with a strong capital base providing additional buffer for further growth. Loans and advances, and investment in Treasury Bills constitute the bulk of the total assets.

While Zenith Bank may need to create an additional N484 billion in loan assets to enable it meet the new regulatory requirement of minimum loans to deposits ratio of 60 percent, GTBank may need to create additional loan assets of N178 billion.

We recommend that investors with a long-term investment horizon take position in these two stocks at the current prices, which we believe offer significant upside potentials. Although recent global developments may have a short-term negative impact on the performance of the equity market, long-term investors may benefit from the long-term growth that the equity market offers.

The two companies usually give interim and final dividends, therefore, they are good stocks to be included in an asset manager’s portfolio.

The performance of stock prices of Zenith Bank and GTBank have also outperformed that of the NSE ASI in the last five years.

Economy

NASD Bourse Closes Mixed at Midweek as Paintcom Joins

Published

8 hours ago

16/01/2025

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a mixed outcome on Wednesday, January 15 after it welcome a new entrant.

Paintcom Investment Nigeria Plc joined the OTC securities exchange yesterday with shares admitted at a unit price of N10.72 and a market capitalisation of N8.5 billion.

However, when trading activities closed for the session, the alternative stock exchange went down by 0.10 per cent, with the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) depreciating by 3.03 points to 3,093.16 points from the 3,096.19 points recorded in the previous session.

But the value of the trading platform increased by 0.7 per cent or N7.54 billion to settle at N1.068 trillion compared with the preceding day’s N1.061 trillion.

The volume of securities traded in the session went down by 83.2 per cent to 666,494 units from the 3.97 million units recorded in the preceding session, while the value of shares traded during the session jumped by 98.2 per cent to N16.5 million from N8.3 million, with the number of deals going down by 20 per cent to 20 deals from 25 deals.

Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc gained 3 Kobo to close at 30 Kobo per share versus 27 Kobo per share, Mixta Real Estate Plc increased by 23 Kobo to N2.58 per unit from N2.35 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc added N1.15 to settle at N23.20 per share, in contrast to Tuesday’s closing price of N22.15 per share.

Further, Afriland Properties Plc grew by 75 Kobo to N16.25 per unit from N15.50 per unit and Geo-Fluids Plc expanded by 13 Kobo to N4.79 per share from N4.66 per share.

On the flip side, 11 Plc fell by N27.74 to close at N253.10 per unit compared with the previous session’s N280.84 per unit and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc lost 55 Kobo to finish at N38.95 per share versus N39.50 per share.

FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 3.4 million units worth N134.9 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 8.9 million units valued at N43.0 million, and Afriland Properties Plc with 690,825 sold for N11.1 million.

IGI Plc closed the day as the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 23.5 million units sold for N5.3 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 8.9 million units valued at N43.0 million, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 3.4 million units worth N134.9 million.

Economy

Naira Crashes to N1,551/$1 at Official Market Amid Inflationary Pressures

Published

10 hours ago

16/01/2025

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira depreciated on the American currency in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Wednesday, January 15 by 0.09 per cent or N1.45 to close at N1,551.10/$1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,549.65/$1.

It was the fourth straight session the local currency was losing value on the greenback in the official forex market as the deadline to end the access of Bureaux De Change (BDCs) to the official trading platform nears.

Also, Nigeria’s inflation neared a 29-year high as it rose for the fourth straight month to 34.80 per cent in December 2024 spurred by high festive activities.

On the British currency, which is the Pound Sterling, the domestic currency depreciated by N24.79 to wrap the session at N1,904.43/£1 versus the previous day’s N1,879.64/£1 and against the Euro, it weakened by N14.74 to sell for N1,600.79 per Euro versus N1,586.05/€1.

At the parallel market, the Nigerian Naira traded flat against the US Dollar yesterday at N1,650/$1, according to data obtained by Business Post.

In the cryptocurrency market, most of the tokens gained as the anticipation of Mr Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president is building bullish sentiment for the market, which was also encouraged by a highly anticipated CPI inflation data report in the US.

Litecoin (LTC) grew by 17.7 per cent to quote at $119.82, Ripple (XRP) expanded by 9.0 per cent to a six-year high of $3.10, Solana (SOL) appreciated by 7.2 per cent to trade at $202.81, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 5.3 per cent to finish at $0.3789, Ethereum (ETH) increased its value by 4.7 per cent to end at $3,376.28, and Cardano jumped by 3.3 per cent to settle at $1.06, Bitcoin (BTC) gained 2.8 per cent to close at $99,707.22, and Binance Coin (BNB) improved by 1.6 per cent to trade at $710.31, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.

Economy

Oil Market Rallies on US Crude Drop, Russian Sanctions

Published

11 hours ago

16/01/2025

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market rose more than 2 per cent on Wednesday, supported by a large draw in US crude stockpiles and potential supply disruptions caused by new US sanctions on Russia.

Brent crude futures appreciated by $2.11 or 2.64 per cent to $82.03 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude grew by $2.54 or 3.28 per cent to close at $80.04 a barrel.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an inventory dip of 2 million barrels for the second week of the year.

The change estimated by the EIA compared with a modest draw of around 1 million barrels for the previous week, which also saw sizable fuel inventories build that dragged oil prices lower.

For the week to January 10, the EIA estimated an inventory build of 5.9 million in gasoline, with production averaging 9.3 million barrels daily. This compared with a build of as much as 6.3 million barrels for the previous week when production averaged 8.9 million barrels daily. That build was the second sizable weekly one after 2024 ended with a build of 7.7 million barrels in gasoline inventories.

The latest round of US sanctions on Russian oil could disrupt Russian oil supply and distribution significantly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly oil market report.

The Paris-based agency said that the sanctions on Iran and Russia cover entities that handled more than a third of Russian and Iranian crude exports in 2024, adding that the market will be in surplus this year as supply growth led by countries outside the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+ exceeds subdued expansion in world demand.

This aligns with an earlier projection by the EIA which assumes that OPEC+ would roll back its production cuts and that non-OPEC production would continue leaping forward.

Limiting the gains was fresh developments in the Middle East as Israel and Hamas agreed to a deal to halt fighting in Gaza and exchange Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners.

OPEC in its monthly oil report on Wednesday forecast stronger demand growth than the IEA of 1.45 million barrels per day this year and, in its first look at 2026, predicted a similar expansion of 1.43 million barrels per day next year.

OPEC expects global oil demand to rise by 1.43 million barrels per day in 2026, maintaining a similar growth rate to 2025.