Economy
Opportunities in a Bear Market – Two Stocks to Watch
By FSDH Research
The Nigerian equity market, as measured by the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI), depreciated by 12.42 percent as at the end of August 2019.
Our analysis of the performance of the equity market so far in 2019 shows that the Index recorded the highest depreciation of 7.5 percent in July.
FSDH Research notes that the declining crude oil price and fear of a possible global recession had negative impacts on the equity market.
Despite the current bearish trend in the market, we spot opportunities in the equity market. The two stocks we highlight here are: Zenith Bank and GTBank. Each has a history of good performance and good dividend payment; we believe the short-to-medium term outlook of these stocks are good. Therefore, investors should position in them as their share prices have recently dropped significantly.
Zenith Bank and GTBank are both strong players in the Nigerian banking sector. They both have footprints among the top-quality corporate customers. Both banks have consistent records of good asset quality and earnings.
They focus on low cost deposits from retail customers, therefore their cost of funds are low. This enables them to have good interest margin to drive profitability. They have remained the most profitable banks by absolute profit (Profit Before Tax and Profit After Tax).
The two banks have invested considerably in technology and deploy this service to existing customers and attract new ones. This has also generated a lot of non-interest income for them. Both banks operate a commercial banking licence with international focus.
FSDH Research’s analysis shows that Zenith Bank recorded improvements in both the top-line and bottom-line in Half Year (HY1) 2019 over the corresponding period of last year. The major drivers of the performance are an increase in non-interest income and its cost optimization strategy.
Although the Gross Earnings of GTBank dropped marginally in HY1 2019, it managed to record improved performance in profitability.
We attribute the drop in the gross earning to the decrease in interest income due to a drop in interest rate during the period. The growth in non-interest income and low interest expenses were mainly responsible for the growth in profitability
Our analysis of the latest results shows that GTBank is more efficient than Zenith Bank. Despite that, Zenith Bank is one of the most efficient banks in Nigeria. The efficiency ratio shows that Zenith Bank recorded the following as at HY1 2019; Net Interest Margin 9 percent; Profit Before Tax (PBT) Margin 34 percent; Profit After Tax (PAT) Margin 27 percent; Return on Equity (ROE) 11 percent (annualised to 22 percent) and cost–to–income ratio 53 percent.
GTBank however, recorded Net Interest Margin 10 percent; PBT Margin 52 percent; PAT Margin 45 percent; ROE 16 percent (annualised to 32 percent) and cost–to–income ratio 37.6 percent.
The Trailing Earning Per Share (EPS) for both banks stood at N6.39 as at HY1 2019. The Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio for Zenith Bank stood at 5.3 percent while that of GTBank stood at 6.8 percent and they are among the lowest in the banking industry.
Zenith Bank and GTBank have liquid balance sheets with well-diversified earning assets and sources of funding. Zenith Bank’s total assets as at HY1 2019 stood at N5.9 trillion while GTBank’s total asset stood at N3.6 trillion. Both banks’ assets are largely funded by customers’ deposits, with a strong capital base providing additional buffer for further growth. Loans and advances, and investment in Treasury Bills constitute the bulk of the total assets.
While Zenith Bank may need to create an additional N484 billion in loan assets to enable it meet the new regulatory requirement of minimum loans to deposits ratio of 60 percent, GTBank may need to create additional loan assets of N178 billion.
We recommend that investors with a long-term investment horizon take position in these two stocks at the current prices, which we believe offer significant upside potentials. Although recent global developments may have a short-term negative impact on the performance of the equity market, long-term investors may benefit from the long-term growth that the equity market offers.
The two companies usually give interim and final dividends, therefore, they are good stocks to be included in an asset manager’s portfolio.
The performance of stock prices of Zenith Bank and GTBank have also outperformed that of the NSE ASI in the last five years.
Economy
LCCI Raises Eyebrow Over N15.52trn Debt Servicing Plan in 2026 Budget
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has noted that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing in the 2026 budget remains a significant fiscal burden.
LCCI Director-General, Mrs Chinyere Almona, said this on Tuesday in Lagos via a statement in reaction to the nation’s 2026 budget of N58.18 trillion, hinging the success of the 2026 budget on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.
She noted that the budget was a timely shift from macroeconomic stabilisation to growth acceleration, reflecting growing confidence in the economy.
She lauded its emphasis on production-oriented spending, with capital expenditure of N26.08 trillion, representing 45 per cent of total outlays, and significantly outweighing non-debt recurrent expenditure of N15.25 trillion.
According to Mrs Almona, this composition supports infrastructure development, industrial expansion, and productivity growth.
However, she explained that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing underscored the need for stricter borrowing discipline, enhanced revenue efficiency, and expanded public-private partnerships to safeguard investments that promote growth.
She added that a further review of the 2026 budget revealed relatively optimistic macroeconomic assumptions that may pose fiscal risks.
“The oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, although lower than the $75.00 benchmark in the 2025 budget, appears optimistic when compared with the 2025 average price of about $69.60 per barrel and current prices around $60 per barrel.
“This raises downside risks to oil revenue, especially since 35.6 per cent of the total projected revenue is expected to come from oil receipts.
“Similarly, the oil production benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day is significantly higher than the current level of approximately 1.49 million barrels per day.
“Achieving this may be challenging without substantial improvements in security, infrastructure integrity, and sector investment,” she said.
Mrs Almona said the exchange rate assumption of N1,512 to the Dollar, compared with N1,500 in the 2025 budget and about N1,446 per Dollar at the end of November, suggests expectations of a mild depreciation.
She said while this may support Naira-denominated revenue, it also increases the cost of imports, debt servicing, and inflation management, with broader macroeconomic implications.
The LCCI DG added that the inflation projection of 16.5 per cent in 2026, up from 15.8 per cent in the 2025 budget and a current rate of about 14.45 per cent, appeared optimistic, particularly in a pre-election year.
She also expressed concern about Nigeria’s historically weak budget implementation capacity, likely to be further strained by the combined operation of multiple budget cycles within a single year.
Looking ahead, Mrs Almona identified agriculture and agro-processing, manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, and human capital development as key drivers of growth in 2026.
She said that unlocking these sectors would require decisive execution—scaling irrigation and agro-value chains, reducing power and logistics costs for manufacturers, and aligning education and skills development with private-sector needs.
The LCCI head stressed the need to resolve issues surrounding the Naira for crude, increase the supply of oil to local refineries to boost local refining capacity and conserve the substantial foreign exchange used for fuel imports.
“Overall, the 2026 Budget presents a credible opportunity for Nigeria to transition from recovery to expansion.
“Its success will depend less on the size of allocations and more on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.
Economy
Customs Street Chalks up 0.12% on Santa Claus Rally
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited witnessed Santa Claus rally on Wednesday after it closed higher by 0.12 per cent.
Strong demand for Nigerian stocks lifted the All-Share Index (ASI) by 185.70 points during the pre-Christmas trading session to 153,539.83 points from 153,354.13 points.
In the same vein, the market capitalisation expanded at midweek by N118 billion to N97.890 trillion from the preceding day’s N97.772 trillion.
Investor sentiment on Customs Street remained bullish after closing with 36 appreciating equities and 22 depreciating equities, indicating a positive market breadth index.
Guinness Nigeria chalked up 9.98 per cent to trade at N318.60, Austin Laz improved by 9.97 per cent to N3.20, International Breweries expanded by 9.85 per cent to N14.50, Transcorp Hotels rose by 9.83 per cent to N170.90, and Aluminium Extrusion grew by 9.73 per cent to N16.35.
On the flip side, Legend Internet lost 9.26 per cent to close at N4.90, AXA Mansard shrank by 7.14 per cent to N13.00, Jaiz Bank declined by 5.45 per cent to N4.51, MTN Nigeria weakened by 5.21 per cent to N504.00, and NEM Insurance crashed by 4.74 per cent to N24.10.
Yesterday, a total of 1.8 billion shares valued at N30.1 billion exchanged hands in 19,372 deals versus the 677.4 billion shares worth N20.8 billion traded in 27,589 deals in the previous session, implying a slump in the number of deals by 29.78 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and value by 165.72 per cent and 44.71 per cent apiece.
Abbey Mortgage Bank was the most active equity for the day after it sold 1.1 billion units worth N7.1 billion, Sterling Holdings traded 127.1 million units valued at N895.9 million, Custodian Investment exchanged 115.0 million units for N4.5 billion, First Holdco transacted 40.9 million units valued at N2.2 billion, and Access Holdings traded 38.2 million units worth N783.3 million.
Economy
Yuletide: Rite Foods Reiterates Commitment to Quality, Innovation
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigerian food and beverage company, Rite Foods Limited, has extended warm Yuletide greetings to Nigerians as families and communities worldwide come together to celebrate the Christmas season and usher in a new year filled with hope and renewed possibilities.
In a statement, Rite Foods encouraged consumers to savour these special occasions with its wide range of quality brands, including the 13 variants of Bigi Carbonated Soft Drinks, premium Bigi Table Water, Sosa Fruit Drink in its refreshing flavours, the Fearless Energy Drink, and its tasty sausage rolls — all produced in a world-class facility with modern technology and global best practices.
Speaking on the season, the Managing Director of Rite Foods Limited, Mr Seleem Adegunwa, said the company remains deeply committed to enriching the lives of consumers beyond refreshment. According to him, the Yuletide period underscores the values of generosity, unity, and gratitude, which resonate strongly with the company’s philosophy.
“Christmas is a season that reminds us of the importance of giving, togetherness, and gratitude. At Rite Foods, we are thankful for the continued trust of Nigerians in our brands. This season strengthens our resolve to consistently deliver quality products that bring joy to everyday moments while contributing positively to society,” Mr Adegunwa stated.
He noted that the company’s steady progress in brand acceptance, operational excellence, and responsible business practices reflects a culture of continuous improvement, innovation, and responsiveness to consumer needs. These efforts, he said, have further strengthened Rite Foods’ position as a proudly Nigerian brand with growing relevance and impact across the country.
Mr Adegunwa reaffirmed that Rite Foods will continue to invest in research and development, efficient production processes, and initiatives that support communities, while maintaining quality standards across its product portfolio.
“As the year comes to a close, Rite Foods Limited wishes Nigerians a joyful Christmas celebration and a prosperous New Year filled with peace, progress, and shared success.”
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