Economy
Prices Drop as OPEC Sees Decline in Global Oil Demand
By Adedapo Adesanya
Prices of crude oil went southwards on Wednesday as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised down its 2021 forecast for global oil demand.
At the market yesterday, the Brent crude dropped 60 cents or 0.94 per cent to trade at $63.54 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped $1.22 or 2.01 per cent to sell at $59.33 per barrel.
The Joint Technical Committee (JTC) of the producers’ alliance at the beginning of the monthly OPEC+ meetings to decide how to proceed with the production cuts in May revised down its global demand for oil by 300,000 barrels per day.
The most recent edition of OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report projected a growth of 5.1 per cent in 2021, while world oil demand is estimated to rise by 5.9 million barrels per day. However, the JTC’s base-case scenario now forecasts demand growth of 5.6 million barrels per day, down by 300,000 barrels per day.
There are also expectations that the global oil supply will rise by 1.6 million barrels per day this year, 200,000 barrels per day higher than its previous supply growth estimate.
The decision is coming in light of the renewed lockdowns in Europe amid a third wave of the pandemic.
Market participants are expecting the decision from Thursday’s meeting in which the group will continue its effort to rebalance the market through its cuts. There has been a solace in the fact that Saudi Arabia is seeking to extend current OPEC+ production cuts over May and June and also keep cutting one million barrels per day in oil output unilaterally.
Another such decision being expected is from Russia, the co-Chair of the alliance. Reports indicate that it is favouring a rollover of the cartel’s oil production cuts, but it is seeking a slight increase for itself to meet higher domestic seasonal demand.
The uncertainty around this made the market overlook the surprise draw in crude inventories in the United States as the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 900,000 barrels.
The report comes a day after the American Petroleum Institute reported an estimated build of 3.9 million barrels in crude oil and compared with a more moderate build of 1.9 million barrels per day that the EIA reported for the previous week.
Analysts had expected an even more modest inventory build for last week, at 400,000 barrels.
Lockdowns in Europe are also adding to the bearish environment for the black gold as France announced a nationwide four-week lockdown, closing schools and business. It joined Italy and Germany, which extended their partial shutdowns well into April.
The resurgence in the region’s outbreak is a setback for governments, whose plans to get life back to normal and revive their economies have already been drawn back by a slow vaccine rollout across the European Union.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s crude oil production slipped slightly to 1.422 million barrels per day in December 2025 from 1.436 million barrels per day in November, according to data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
OPEC in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), quoting primary sources, noted that the oil output was below the 1.5 million barrels per day quota for the nation.
The OPEC data indicate that Nigeria last met its production quota in July 2025, with output remaining below target from August through December.
Quarterly figures reveal a consistent decline across 2025; Q1: 1.468 million barrels per day, Q2: 1.481 million barrels per day, Q3: 1.444 million barrels per day, and 1.42 million barrels per day in Q4.
However, the cartel acknowledged that despite the gradual decrease in oil production, Nigeria’s non-oil sector grew in the second half of last year.
The organisation noted that “Nigeria’s economy showed resilience in 2H25, posting sound growth despite global challenges, as strength in the non-oil economy partly offset slower growth in the oil sector.”
According to the report, cooling inflation, a stronger Naira, lower refined fuel imports, and stronger remittance inflows are improving domestic and external conditions.
“A stronger naira, easing food prices due to the harvest, and a cooling in core inflation also point to gradually fading underlying pressures”, the report noted.
It forecast inflation to decelerate further on the back of past monetary tightening, currency strength, and seasonal harvest effects, though it noted that monetary policy remains restrictive.
“Seasonally adjusted real GDP growth at market prices moderated to stand at 3.9%, y-o-y, in 3Q25, down from 4.2% in 2Q25. Nonetheless, this is still a healthy and robust growth level, supported by strengthening non-oil activity, with growth in that segment rising by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%, y-o-y. Inflation continued to decelerate in November, with headline CPI falling for an eighth straight month to 14.5%, y-o-y, following 16.1%, y-o-y, in October”.
OPEC, however, stated that while preserving recent disinflation gains is important, the persistently high policy rate – implying real interest rates of around 12% – risks weighing on aggregate demand in the near term.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday revealed that inflation rate for December 2025 stood at 15.15 per cent compared with the 14.45 per cent it put the previous month.
However, it recalculated the November 2025 inflation rate at 17.33 per cent after using a 12-month index reference period where the average consumer price index (CPI) for the 12 months of 2024 is equated to 100. This is a departure from the single-month index reference period, in which December 2024 was set to 100, which would have produced an artificial spike in the December 2025 year-on-year inflation rate.
The NBS had earlier informed stakeholders a few days ago that it was changing its methodology for inflation to reflect the economic reality. This is coming after the organisation changed the base year from 2009 to 2024 earlier in 2025.
In its report released today, the stats agency explained that this process was in line with international best practice as contained in the Consumer Price Index Inter-national Monetary Fund (IMF) Manual, specifically in Section 9.125 and the ECOWAS Harmonised CPI Manual, which address index reference period maximisation, following a rebasing exercise.
On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in December 2025 was 0.54 per cent, lower than the 1.22 per cent recorded in November 2025.
The NBS also revealed that on a year-on-year basis, the urban inflation rate for last month stood at 14.85 per cent versus 37.29 per cent in December 2024, while on a month-on-month basis, it jumped to 0.99 per cent from 0.95 per cent in the preceding month.
As for the rural inflation rate in December 2025, it stood at 14.56 per cent on a year-on-year basis from 32.47 per cent in December 2024, and on a month-on-month basis, it declined to -0.55 per cent from 1.88 per cent in November 2025.
It was also disclosed that food inflation rate in December 2025 was 10.84 per cent on a year-on-year basis from 39.84 per cent in December 2024, while on a month-on-month basis, it declined to -0.36 per cent from 1.13 per cent in November 2025 (1.13%).
This was attributed to the rate of decrease in the average prices of tomatoes, garri, eggs, potatoes, carrots, millet, vegetables, plantain, beans, wheat grain, grounded pepper, fresh onions and others.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Companies operating in Lagos State have been reminded of their obligations to file their annual tax returns for the 2025 financial year on or before January 31, 2026.
This reminder was given by the Lagos State Internal Revenue Service (LIRS) in a statement made available to Business Post on Thursday.
In the notice signed by the chairman of the tax agency, Mr Ayodele Subair, it was stressed that filing the tax returns is an obligation as stipulated in the Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA) 2025.
He explained that employers are required to file detailed returns on emoluments and compensation paid to their employees, as well as payments made to their service providers, vendors and consultants, and to ensure that all applicable taxes due for the year 2025 are fully remitted.
Mr Subair emphasised that filing of annual returns is a mandatory legal obligation, and warned that failure to comply will result in statutory sanctions, including administrative penalties, as prescribed under the new tax law.
According to Section 14 of the NTAA, employers are required to file detailed annual returns of all emoluments paid to employees, including taxes deducted and remitted to relevant tax authorities. Such returns must be filed and submitted not later than January 31 each year.
“Employers must prioritise the timely filing of their annual income tax returns. Compliance should be part of our everyday business practice.
“Early and accurate filing not only ensures adherence to the law as required by the Nigerian Constitution, but also supports effective revenue tracking, which is important to Lagos State’s fiscal planning and sustainability,” he noted.
The LIRS chief disclosed that electronic filing via the organisation’s eTax platform remains the only approved and acceptable mode of filing, as manual submissions have been completely phased out. This measure, he said, is aimed at simplifying and standardising tax administration processes in the state.
Employers are therefore required to submit their annual tax returns exclusively through the LIRS eTax portal: https://etax.lirs.net.
Dr Subair described the channel as secure, user-friendly, accessible 24/7, and designed to provide employers with a convenient and efficient means of fulfilling their tax obligations, advising firms to ensure that the tax identification number (Tax ID) of all employees is correctly captured in their filings, noting that employees without a Tax ID must generate one promptly to avoid disruptions during the filing process.
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