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Economy

Purchasing Managers’ Index Hits Five-Month High of 53.7

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Purchasing Managers' Index

By Adedapo Adesanya

Stanbic IBTC’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) hit a five-month high of 53.7 points in September, up from 52.3 in August and signalling a solid strengthening in the health of the private sector at the end of the third quarter.

According to the index, the end of the third quarter of 2022 saw growth gather momentum in the Nigerian private sector.

This was corroborated by sharper rises in output, and new orders, while there were emerging signs of capacity pressures. Cost inflation largely remained elevated due to currency weakness while business confidence waned.

The headline PMI rose by 1.4 points to 53.7 points, indicating that the improvement in business conditions was the most marked since May.

Readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration.

In line with the headline figure, both output and new orders increased at sharper rates during the month. Firms often linked higher new business to rising demand, with some reporting that customer referrals had supported growth. In turn, output rose for the third month running and at the fastest pace since April.

Rising new orders, and some reports of difficulties securing the necessary funding, resulted in a renewed increase in backlogs of work during September, the first in 28 months.

Companies also increased their staffing levels and purchasing activity, largely in response to greater new business volumes.

In both cases, however, rates of expansion eased from the previous survey period. Higher purchasing activity fed through to a further accumulation of inventories.

In a statement, the lender noted that, “Purchase costs rose sharply, with anecdotal evidence often linking higher prices to currency depreciation. Meanwhile, staff costs increased at the fastest pace in three months. Panellists reported that efforts to motivate staff and help them with higher living costs had been behind salary increases.

“With overall input costs again rising at one of the sharpest rates since the survey began, Nigerian companies increased their selling prices accordingly. Although marked, the rate of charge inflation slowed sharply and was the joint-weakest in 21 months. Suppliers’ delivery times continued to shorten, often as a result of strong competition among vendors. The latest shortening of lead times was marked and the most pronounced in four months.

“Despite the improving growth picture in September, firms reported waning confidence in the year-ahead outlook. Sentiment remained positive overall but was the lowest since August 2021 and among the weakest on record. Those firms that expressed optimism often mentioned business expansion plans.”

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

NMDPRA Calculations Show 67% Decline in Nigeria’s Petrol Imports

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Petroleum marketers

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has confirmed that the daily importation of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), known as petrol, dropped by 67.04 per cent from 44.6 million litres in August 2024 to 14.7 million litres as of April 13, 2025.

This disclosure was part of revelations made by the chief executive of NMDPRA, Mr Farouk Ahmed, during the Meet-the-Press briefing series organised by the Presidential Communications Team (PTC) at the State House in Abuja on Tuesday.

He explained that the 30-million-litre drop in imports was due to increased contributions from local refineries, revealing that domestic production of petrol surged by 670 per cent during the same period.

He credited the rise to the gradual restart of the Port Harcourt Refining Company in November 2024, along with added output from modular refineries across the country.

“After contributing virtually nothing in August 2024, local plants delivered 26.2 million litres per day in early April, a jump from the 3.4 million litres recorded in September 2024, which was the first month with measurable output,” he said.

He, however, said that in spite the growth in domestic supply, total national supply exceeded the government’s 50 million litres per day consumption benchmark.

“Only twice within the eight-month period—56 million litres in November 2024 and 52.3 million litres in February, 2025.

He added that the month of March 2025 saw a slight dip to 51.5 million litres per day, while the first half of April recorded an even lower average of 40.9 million litres per day.

Mr Ahmed emphasised that the NMDPRA issues import licenses strictly in line with national supply requirements, underscoring the authority’s commitment to balancing imports with growing local production capacity.

He called for a collective national effort in protecting and maintaining Nigeria’s oil and gas infrastructure.

According to him, all stakeholders – including security agencies, political leaders, traditional rulers, youths, and oil companies must work together to secure national energy assets.

“It takes all of us—government, traditional institutions, companies, and the youth—to collaborate and resist criminal activities that threaten our infrastructure,” he said.

The CEO also stressed that local government authorities and international oil companies (IOCs) such as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, as well as indigenous companies, must take responsibility in ensuring that oil assets are protected and maintained.

“Until we all commit to safeguarding these national assets, we should stop pointing fingers,” he added.

Mr Ahmed reaffirmed NMDPRA’s commitment to transparency and accountability in the midstream and downstream sectors.

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Economy

Trump’s Tariffs Will Significantly Affect Nigerian Manufacturers—Ajayi-Kadir

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Beer manufacturers in Nigeria

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has said the US imposition of 14 per cent tariff on imported products may have a significant impact on Nigeria’s trade and industrial landscape.

The Director-General of MAN, Mr Segun Ajayi-Kadir, in a statement noted that the US remained one of Nigeria’s most significant trade partners, accounting for approximately 7 per cent of its non-oil exports.

President Donald Trump had earlier slammed a reciprocal tariff on all trading partners with the US with Nigeria getting a 14 per cent share. Although, it recently made a pause to the tariffs for a 90-day period, the possible impact remains.

Mr Ajayi-Kadir said the new tariff regime directly threatened this trade dynamic, particularly as Nigeria projected an ambitious N55 trillion budget and was experiencing a downward trend in global crude oil prices.

According to him, the hike has come at a vulnerable moment when the country is just recovering from the impact of the government’s policy mix that has had negative effects on the manufacturing sector.

“Nigeria’s manufacturing sector, which contributed 8.64 per cent to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2024, is one of the most predisposed sectors of the economy when it comes to trade policy shifts.

“The imposition of a 14 percent tariff on Nigerian exports significantly undermines the competitiveness of locally manufactured goods in the US market.

“Manufacturers who are exporters in agro-processing, chemicals and pharmaceutical, basic metal, iron and steel, non-metallic mineral products and other light industrial manufacturing rely heavily on the U.S. for market access.

“With increased costs for American buyers due to the tariffs, demand for Nigerian products is expected to decline,” he noted.

Mr Ajayi-Kadir stated that in addition to revenue losses, the new tariffs posed a significant disincentive to firms investing in value-added manufacturing.

He noted that over the past decade, manufacturers had made concerted and strategic efforts to support the country’s transition from exporting raw commodities to semi-processed and finished goods.

“However, higher market-entry costs because of higher tariff on Nigerian products will reduce the profitability of such investments, making it more attractive for firms to revert to exporting raw materials.

“This is counterproductive to Nigeria’s industrialisation agenda and compromises the long-term goal of achieving export diversification under platforms such as the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA),” he said.

The MAN DG added that the implications of the tariff imposition on employment in the manufacturing sector were dire.

He noted that as export revenues fall, many companies may reduce their production scale or downsize their workforce to cut costs.

He added that beyond the manufacturing sector, the Nigerian economy was not insulated from the effects of the U.S. tariff decision with its direct impact on Nigeria’s trade balance.

Mr Ajayi-Kadir said with the country already grappling with a fragile external sector, any significant reduction in exports to the U.S. would erode the current trade surplus, potentially pushing the balance into deficit.

He expressed worry about potential pressure on Nigeria to reciprocate by reducing its own tariffs on U.S. goods.

He noted that while the U.S. may frame this as a step toward “fair trade,” the reality was that lowering tariffs on U.S. imports could flood the Nigerian market with subsidised goods, thereby undermining local producers.

“Nigeria has, in recent years, made commendable strides toward achieving self-sufficiency in several manufacturing segments and diversifying away from oil.

“However, succumbing to external pressures to liberalise trade prematurely would reverse these gains.

“Furthermore, the absence of institutional capacity to engage in sophisticated trade negotiations places Nigeria in a vulnerable position.

“While countries with advanced legal and economic institutions may be able to negotiate favourable terms, Nigeria is at a disadvantage due to capacity constraints,” he said.

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Economy

Nigeria Issues 77 Licenses to Refiners for Robust Oil Market

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Port Harcourt Refinery

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria issued 47 Licenses to Establish (LTE) and 30 Licenses to Construct (LTC) refineries in the last year as it seeks to boost oil production in the country.

The move, according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), marks a significant step towards enhancing Nigeria’s refining capacity and boosting petroleum products availability.

The chief executive of NMDPRA, Mr Farouk Ahmed, during the sixth Meet-the-Press briefing in Abuja on Tuesday, said the 47 issued licenses have a combined refining capacity of nearly three million barrels per day.

Detailing the breakdown of the licenses, Mr Ahmed stated: “We have issued 47 LTE translating to 1.75 million barrels per day and 30 LTC translating to 1.23 million barrels per day. Currently, only four plants hold LTC with a steady output of 27,000 barrels per day.”

Giving a further breakdown, he said the LTC projects included five which were at the commissioning or construction stage, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day while other smaller projects include; AIPCC Energy’s 30,000 barrels per day plant and Waltersmith’s second train with a capacity of 5,000 barrels per day.

Mr Ahmed also highlighted the current state of refining operations in Nigeria, saying six licensed private refineries and four public ones are producing a total of 1.12 million barrels per day.

Other private plants contribute 679,500 barrels per day, led by Dangote’s single-train plant with a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

Other modular refineries include; Aradel (11,000 barrels per day), OPAC (10,000 barrels per day), Waltersmith (5,000 barrels per day), Duport Midstream Limited (2,500 barrels per day), and Edo Refining and Petrochemicals Company Limited (1,000 barrels per day).

He explained further that publicly owned facilities operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited add another 445,000 barrels per day from the refurbished plants in Port Harcourt (150,000 barrels per day), Warri (125,000 barrels per day), Kaduna (110,000 barrels per day), and the old Port Harcourt plant (60,000 barrels per day).

“These developments underline our commitment to reducing dependency on imported refined products.”

He added that ongoing licensing efforts aimed at expanding domestic refining capacity were ongoing to further support economic growth through job creation and energy security.

The NMDPRA’s recent licensing activities also include approvals for modular refineries in Edo, Delta, and Abia states, expected to add an additional 140,000 barrels per day upon completion.

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