Economy

PZ Cussons: Earnings to Recover After Bumpy Start to 2018

Published

8 years ago

09/10/2017

Cordros Research

Guidance from our recent discussion with the management of PZ is for flat to slight earnings growth in 2018F. The consumer environment is expected to remain challenging and competition intense.

Outlook for prices is dovish (there has been a marginal price cut this year for Electrical goods, wherein increase was higher last year), yet volumes are unlikely to recover strongly. Dollar liquidity has improved, outlook is positive, and likewise, the expected impact on business performance.

From the loss in Q1 (discussed in our first glance released on Tuesday), we expect PZ will return to profit in the coming quarters, and close 2018F with N3.52 billion net profit (vs. N3.69 billion in 2017FY). The assumptions driving our forecast are (1) continued revenue growth, (2) modest margin recovery, and (3) higher opex (ratio of revenue to increase by 70 bps) and effective tax rate (to increase by 448 bps).

After contracting in 2018F, we expect earnings to grow from 2019F and reach the N5 billion mark (last attained in 2014FY) in 2021F.

Latest economic data (rising PMI, consumer confidence, and business expectation) suggest that the pressure that Nigerian consumers face may be over-exaggerated.

With prices largely stable and economic activities improving, we think consumers are actually better-off now, compared to a year ago. For PZ, we expect earlier recovery in the Home Care division (volume was down by only 3% in 2017FY), given the essential nature and affordability of products in that category.

A number of initiatives, including distribution expansion and new product launches, will hasten recovery in the Personal Care division (where volume was down by 15% in 2017FY).

Although recovery in the Electrical division is expected to lag the others, both the price cut and improved dollar liquidity are expected to impact positively on sales.

For hindsight, the 16% q/q contraction in PZ’s Q1-18 revenue is by far less than the 37% average q/q decline recorded during the same period, since 2012 (within available data).

We think the 24% gross margin guidance given by management, consistent with our forecast, is attainable. We refer to subdued pressure from the external environment (as relates to forex) and internal efficiency measures derivable from the recently launched SAP project as enabling drivers.

That said, margin recovery will remain modest even after 2018F on continued consumers sensitivity to price points.

The stock has accumulated 67% YtD, supported by the same positive investor sentiment that has driven both the broader and consumer goods indices up by 31.6% and 28.3% respectively YtD.

Following the upward review of our estimates, we have increased our 2018F TP slightly higher to N14.86 (previously N14.26).

While we remain constructive of PZ, we believe the stock has outrun the level supportive of its fundamentals. SELL.

Economy

NBA Demands Suspension of Controversial Tax Laws

Published

13 hours ago

24/12/2025

Modupe Gbadeyanka

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The federal government has been asked by the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) to suspend the implementation of the controversial tax laws.

In a reaction to the tax reform acts, the president of the group, Mr Afam Osigwe (SAN), the suspension of the laws would allow for a proper investigation into allegations of alterations in the gazetted and harmonised copies.

A member of the House of Representatives, Mr Abdussamad Dasuki, alleged that some parts of the laws passed by the parliament were different from the gazetted copy.

To address the issues raised, the NBA said it is “imperative that a comprehensive, open, and transparent investigation be conducted to clarify the circumstances surrounding the enactment of the laws and to restore public confidence in the legislative process.”

“Until these issues are fully examined and resolved, all plans for the implementation of the Tax Reform Acts should be immediately suspended,” the association declared.

It noted that the controversies “raise grave concerns about the integrity, transparency, and credibility of Nigeria’s legislative process.”

“These developments strike at the very heart of constitutional governance and call into question the procedural sanctity that must attend lawmaking in a democratic society,” it noted.

“Legal and policy uncertainty of this magnitude has far-reaching consequences. It unsettles the business environment, erodes investor confidence, and creates unpredictability for individuals, businesses, and institutions required to comply with the law. Such uncertainty is inimical to economic stability and should have no place in a system governed by the rule of law.

“Nigeria’s constitutional democracy demands that laws, especially those with profound economic and social implications, emerge from processes that are transparent, accountable, and beyond reproach. Anything short of this undermines public trust and weakens the foundation upon which lawful governance rests.

“We therefore call on all relevant authorities to act swiftly and responsibly in addressing this controversy, in the overriding interest of constitutional order, economic stability, and the preservation of the rule of law,” the organisation stated.

Economy

MRS Oil, Two Others Raise NASD Bourse Higher by 0.52%

Published

15 hours ago

24/12/2025

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

Demand for hot stocks, including MRS Oil Plc, buoyed the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.52 per cent on Tuesday, December 23.

The energy company was one of the three price gainers for the session as it chalked up N19.69 to sell at N216.59 per share versus the previous day’s value of N196.90 per share.

Further, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc gained N2.95 to close at N56.75 per unit versus N53.80 per unit and Golden Capital Plc appreciated by 84 Kobo to N9.29 per share from Monday’s N8.45 per share.

Consequently, the market capitalisation went up by N10.95 billion to N2.125 trillion from N2.125 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) rose by 18.31 points to 3,570.37 points from 3,552.06 points.

Yesterday, the NASD bourse recorded a price loser, the Central Securities Clearing System Plc (CSCS), which gave up 17 Kobo to close at N33.70 per unit against the previous trading value of N33.87 per unit.

The volume of securities traded at the session went down by 97.6 per cent to 297,902 units from the previous day’s 12.6 million units, the value of securities decreased by 98.5 per cent to N10.5 million from N713.6 million, and the number of deals remained flat at 32 deals.

By value, Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc ended as the most actively traded stock on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units exchanged for N16.4 billion. This was followed by Okitipupa Plc, which traded 178.9 million units valued at N9.5 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.

In terms of volume, also on a year-to-date basis, InfraCredit Plc led the chart with a turnover of 5.8 billion units traded for N16.4 billion. Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc ranked second with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.7 million, while Impresit Bakolori Plc followed with the sale of 536.9 million units valued at N524.9 million.

Economy

NGX All-Share Index Soars to 153,354.13 points

Published

16 hours ago

24/12/2025

Dipo Olowookere

By Dipo Olowookere

It was another bullish trading session for the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited as it closed higher by 0.59 per cent on Tuesday.

The market further rallied due to continued interest in large and mid-cap stocks on the exchange by investors rebalancing their portfolios for the year-end.

Yesterday, Aluminium Extrusion sustained its upward trajectory after it further appreciated by 9.96 per cent to N14.90, as Austin Laz gained 9.81 per cent to close at N2.91, Custodian Investment improved by 9.69 per cent to N38.50, and First Holdco soared by 9.35 per cent to N50.30.

Conversely, Royal Exchange declined by 7.22 per cent to N1.80, Champion Breweries shrank by 6.57 per cent to N15.65, NASCON lost 5.36 per cent to trade at N105.05, Sovereign Trust Insurance depreciated by 5.28 per cent to N3.77, and Japaul went down by 4.51 per cent to N2.33.

At the close of business, 29 shares ended on the gainers’ table and 27 shares finished on the losers’ log, representing a positive market breadth index and bullish investor sentiment.

This raised the All-Share Index (ASI) by 895.06 points to 153,354.13 points from 152,459.07 points and lifted the market capitalisation by N579 billion to N97.772 trillion from the previous day’s N97.193 trillion.

VFD Group finished the day as the busiest stock after it recorded a turnover of 192.0 million units worth N2.1 billion, GTCO exchanged 63.5 million units valued at N5.6 billion, Access Holdings traded 49.8 million units for N1.0 billion, First Holdco sold 45.8 million units valued at N2.3 billion, and Secure Electronic Technology transacted 38.3 million units worth N28.4 million.

In all, market participants bought and sold 677.4 million units valued at N20.8 billion in 27,589 deals compared with the 451.5 million units worth N13.0 billion traded in 33,327 deals on Monday, showing an improvement in the trading volume and value by 50.03 per cent and 60.00 per cent apiece, and a shortfall in the number of deals by 17.22 per cent.