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Economy

Reactions as JP Morgan Warns Investors Against Nigerian Bonds

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Nigerian bonds

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The decision of JP Morgan to warn investors interested in buying securities from Nigeria to be extra-ordinarily careful is not going down well with some observers, who blamed the federal government for this.

According to the financial institution, it had to downgrade Nigeria, which prides itself as the biggest economy in Africa, from its emerging market sovereign list because the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has not been able to transfer revenue generated from the sale of crude oil to the federation account for three months.

JP Morgan believes the country is undergoing a serious revenue crisis that could affect its ability to pay foreign bondholders, which is why it is alerting investors to probably avoid Nigerian bonds as the government plans to approach the market soon.

“Nigeria’s fiscal woes amid a worsening global risk backdrop have raised market concerns despite a positive oil environment,” the American bank said.

The NNPC has struggled to remit funds to the federal government between January and March 2022 as a result of the payment of subsidies for petrol.

Though Nigeria has crude oil in abundance, it does not refine the commodity. It instead gives the crude oil to refiners and then brings the derivatives into the country, making it difficult for consumers to buy at cheaper rates except the government subsidises the products.

Business Post reports that the fuel subsidies have been on for decades and attempts in the past to remove them have been met with threats from the labour unions.

Despite signing the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) into law recently, making subsidies illegal, the government of President Muhammadu Buhari delayed the implementation of the law till after his tenure.

Many observers saw this move as purely political, especially because it was coming a year before the general elections.

In his report, JP Morgan said Nigeria has not been able to take advantage of the rise in the prices of crude oil on the global scene. Also, the country is not taking advantage of the Russia-Ukraine war to sell its gas to Europe, which is in a dire need of the commodity as it is planning to stop patronising Russian energy.

However, it replaced Nigeria on the list with Serbia due to the country’s high reserves and a fiscally cautious government and also Uzbekistan due to its relatively low debt despite Russian exposure.

The revelation by the US-based lender has triggered questions from Nigerians, who want to know the whereabouts of the funds from crude oil sales.

“JP Morgan Chase, the bankers to NNPC/CBN says not a cent has been deposited into their coffers in 3 months, specifically from January to March 2022.

“So where are the $ proceeds from the sale of Nigerian crude oil during this period?” a financial analyst, Mr Kalu Aja asked in one of his tweets on Twitter on Wednesday.

Economy

Guinness Nigeria Shareholders to Pocket N4.38bn Interim Dividend for Q1’26

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Guinness Nigeria

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Shareholders of Guinness Nigeria Plc will share about N4.38 billion as an interim dividend for the first quarter of 2026, the board has disclosed.

This cash reward amounts to N2.00 per share, as the company has shares outstanding of 2,190,382,819 on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.

The brewer stated that the interim dividend would be paid to investors whose names appear on the register of members as of the close of business on April 20, 2026.

The dividend payout is being proposed following the sustained profitability reflected in the unaudited financial results of the company in the first three months of this year and its “strong performance in FY 2025.”

It would be “paid from distributable profits in accordance with Sections 426–428 of the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) 2020.”

Analysis of the performance of the brewery giant between January and March 2026 showed that revenue grew by 4 per cent on a year-on-year basis to N122.77 billion from N118.34 billion in the same period of last year, while the gross profit contracted to N43.48 billion from N44.52 billion due to prevailing cost pressures within the operating environment.

The company’s operating profit also shrank to N17.18 billion from N18.00 billion in the first quarter of 2025 due to elevated marketing & distribution costs and administrative expenses.

However, the reduction in net finance costs to N1.43 billion from N7.72 billion in Q1 of 2025 helped the organisation to grow its post-tax profit to N10.39 billion in the period under review versus the N7.03 billion recorded in the corresponding period of last year.

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Economy

Right Institutional Structures Critical to Unlocking Sustainable Growth—Kwairanga

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NGX BoI Unlocking Sustainable Growth

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The chairman of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc, Mr Umaru Kwairanga, says enabling entrepreneurship requires more than access to funding.

He said this at a workshop held in Kano under the theme Unlocking Growth – Harnessing the Capital Market for SME Growth.

The event was organisation by the NGX in partnership with the Bank of Industry (BoI) as part of their financing advocacy.

Mr Kwairanga noted that the right institutional structures and market platforms are critical to unlocking sustainable growth.

“Kano provides a fitting backdrop for this engagement, not only as a historic commercial hub but as a gateway to significant untapped potential. The priority is to connect that potential to capital and the frameworks required for long-term growth,” he stated.

The programme was put together to integrate small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) into Nigeria’s formal capital market.

The Kano workshop follows the inaugural edition held in Lagos last year, signalling a more structured push by both institutions to bridge the gap between Nigeria’s SME ecosystem and long-term capital.

Participants were equipped with insights on financing pathways, governance structures, and long-term growth strategies within the capital market.

On his part, the chief executive of NGX Limited, Mr Jude Chiemeka, emphasised the central role of SMEs in strengthening market depth and resilience, noting that recent market performance continues to reflect investor confidence despite macroeconomic pressures.

“Through initiatives like this, we are demystifying the capital market and demonstrating that with the right structure and governance, SMEs can access capital to scale sustainably,” he said.

An Executive Director for MSME at BOI, Mr Oluwatoyin Ahmed Edu, said the bank remains focused on bridging financing gaps for businesses that may not yet meet listing requirements.

“Where viable enterprises require capacity building before accessing the market, BOI is positioned to provide the necessary support to prepare them for that transition,” he noted.

Delivering remarks on behalf of the Emir of Kano, Mr Shehu Muhammed Dankade highlighted the region’s strong entrepreneurial base, particularly the growing participation of women-led businesses, describing it as a signal of resilience and economic potential.

The workshop featured detailed presentations from NGX on listing requirements, corporate governance, and the use of the NGX Growth Board as a platform for raising long-term capital.

It also created space for direct engagement with SME operators across Northern Nigeria, offering insights into their challenges, growth ambitions, and readiness to access structured financing.

The initiative aligns with NGX Group’s broader strategy to position SMEs as a critical engine of economic growth, while strengthening the institutional pathways that enable businesses to transition from informal operations to investment-ready enterprises.

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Economy

Spike in Energy Prices Raises Nigeria’s Inflation to 15.38% in March

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Nigeria's inflation

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s inflation rate increased in March 2026 to 15.38 per cent from 15.1o per cent in February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 135.4 in March 2026, higher than the 130.0 in the preceding month by 5.4 points. The spike was likely stoked by the US-Israeli war on Iran, that’s pushed up the cost of fuel and has had a ripple effect in other areas.

At 15.38 per cent, the inflation numbers beat expectations of analysts at Meristem Research, which projected that the inflation rate in Nigeria for the month should come in at 13.59 per cent, after the price of crude oil on the global market soared as a result of the war in Iran, with prices of items growing in Nigeria.

The March 2026 headline inflation rate showed an increase of 0.32 per cent compared to the February 2026 headline inflation rate. However, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in March 2026 was 4.18 per cent, which was 2.17 per cent higher than the rate recorded in February 2026 at 2.01 per cent.

This means that last month, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level a month earlier.

Food inflation rate in the review month stood at 14.31 per cent on a year-on-year basis versus 25.22 per cent in the same month of last year. However, on a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in March 2026 was 4.17 per cent, which is 0.52 per cent lower than the 4.69 per cent achieved in February 2026.

According to the stats office, “This can be attributed to the rate of change in the average prices of the following products: Yam, Ginger (Fresh), Cassava Tuber, Groundnuts (Shelled), Irish Potatoes, Avenger (Ogbono/Apon) – Dried Ungrinded, Tomatoes (fresh), Cassava Flour sold loose, etc.”

The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending March 2026 over the previous twelve-month average was 18.21 per cent, which was 17.81 per cent lower than the average annual rate of change recorded in March 2025 at 36.02 per cent.

On a year-on-year basis, in March 2026, the urban inflation rate was 14.64 per cent, and 3.16 per cent on a month-on-month basis, which is 0.61 per cent higher than the 2.55 per cent in February 2026.

As for the rural inflation rate, it was 17.22 per cent in the month under consideration and on a month-on-month basis, it stood at 6.73 per cent versus 0.71 per cent a month earlier.

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