Economy
Recession, Fresh Lockdown Fears Plunge Oil Prices by 9%
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices plummeted by about 9 per cent on Tuesday, with the Brent crude losing 9.5 per cent to sell at $102.77 a barrel and the United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude falling by 8.2 per cent to $99.50 a barrel after it returned after America’s Independence day holiday.
Both benchmarks logged their biggest daily percentage decline since March 9 and hit share prices of major oil and gas companies amid growing fears of a global recession and lockdowns in China.
Analysts noted that the world’s largest economy – the US, may have shrunk in the three months from April through June which would be the second straight quarter of contraction, considered the definition of a technical recession.
With inflation at multi-decade highs, the pace of policy-tightening is not expected to let up in the second half of 2022 after top central banks raised interest rates in June than in any month for at least two decades,
Mass COVID-19 testing in China stocked fears of potential lockdowns that threaten to deepen cuts to oil consumption.
Weeks after lifting its lockdown, Shanghai said it would begin new rounds of mass testing of its 25 million residents over a three-day period, following a new bout of an outbreak.
During the testing, people living in the affected districts would be required to show a test taken within the last two days to leave their homes, it said.
City lockdowns and repeated mass testing in China, part of its zero-COVID policy that aims to eradicate all outbreaks, have brought case numbers down but many of the measures have fuelled anger and taken a toll on the economy.
Although China’s most populous city has lifted a two-month-long lockdown of its 25 million residents, it still imposes targeted curbs on movements whenever a COVID case is found outside quarantined areas.
OPEC Secretary-General, Mr Mohammad Barkindo said on Tuesday that the industry was “under siege” due to years of under-investment, adding shortages could be eased if extra supplies from Iran and Venezuela were allowed.
On the other hand, the Norwegian government on Tuesday intervened to end a strike in the petroleum sector that had cut oil and gas output and worsened Europe’s energy troubles.
The strike would have cut daily gas exports by 1,117,000 barrels of oil equivalent or 56 per cent of daily gas exports, while 341,000 barrels of oil would have been lost in a week.
Economy
Investors Eye Investment Opportunities in Dangote Refinery
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The planned listing of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited is already attracting interest from South African investors and others.
The leadership of South Africa’s Government Employees Pension Fund (GEPF), alongside the Public Investment Corporation and Alterra Capital Partners, were recently at the Lagos-based facility.
The chairperson of GEPF, Mr Frans Baleni, said that the refinery stands as evidence that Africa can execute transformational infrastructure projects when backed by visionary leadership, long-term investment and strong technical expertise.
According to him, the significance of the project extends well beyond Nigeria’s borders, noting that it should reshape how Africa thinks about itself.
“The Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals Complex is a powerful demonstration that, with visionary leadership and long-term capital, that perception no longer holds. This is the kind of African-led industrial scale that institutional investors on this continent should be backing,” he said.
Also speaking, the chief executive of PIC, Mr Patrick Dlamini, described the refinery as one of the most transformative industrial projects undertaken on the continent, saying it is reshaping global perceptions about Africa’s industrial capabilities and economic potential.
He said PIC, which manages about $230 billion in assets largely on behalf of South Africa’s Government Employees Pension Fund, is actively seeking long-term partnerships aligned with infrastructure development, industrialisation and economic transformation across Africa.
“There is real strategic alignment between Dangote’s industrial agenda and how we are positioning our portfolio, and we look forward to exploring meaningful avenues for collaboration,” he stated.
While receiving his visitors, the chief executive of Dangote Group, Mr Aliko Dangote, said the proposed listing is designed to democratise wealth creation and give Africans direct access to participate in the continent’s industrial transformation.
“We are opening the doors for investors to participate directly in Africa’s industrial future and the prosperity it will create,” Mr Dangote said, adding that the refinery project reflects the scale of untapped opportunities within Africa’s energy market, particularly as most countries on the continent remain dependent on imported refined petroleum products despite growing industrial demand and rising consumption.
The billionaire industrialist noted that demand for products such as polypropylene, aviation fuel and refined petroleum products has exceeded earlier projections, reinforcing the commercial viability of the refinery and shaping future expansion plans.
Economy
Nigeria’s Oil Exploration Declines 41.7% as Rig Counts Falls to 12 in April
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s oil exploration and drilling activities declined by 41.7 per cent in April 2026, following reduced upstream operations and investment activities.
According to the May 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s rig count, a major indicator of upstream oil and gas activities, dropped to 12 in April 2026 from 17 recorded in March 2026.
The decline came amid persistent upstream investment and operational challenges, according to the latest monthly report released by OPEC.
Earlier data contained in the May 2026 edition of the MOMR also showed that Nigeria’s average rig count declined to 13 in 2025 from 15 recorded in 2024, indicating reduced exploration and drilling activities in the upstream petroleum sector.
The report showed that Nigeria’s rig count fell by five rigs month-on-month, from 17 rigs in March 2026 to 12 rigs in April 2026.
Rig count is widely regarded in the petroleum industry as a key indicator of exploration, field development and investment activities.
The decline comes despite ongoing efforts by the Nigerian government and industry operators to raise crude oil production, boost reserves and attract fresh upstream investments under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA)
Nigeria’s performance contrasted with the broader African trend, where total rig count increased marginally from 42 in March 2026 to 48 in April 2026.
However, Nigeria accounted for a significant share of the continent’s decline in operational rigs during the period.
Within OPEC, Nigeria remained behind major producers such as Saudi Arabia, which recorded 265 rigs in April 2026, the United Arab Emirates with 66 rigs, and Iraq with 19 rigs.
The development also comes at a time when Nigeria is struggling to meet its crude oil production quota allocated by OPEC consistently.
Economy
Nigeria’s Central Bank Holds Rate at 26.50% Despite Heightened Disruptions
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has retained the headline interest rate, the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), at 26.50 per cent.
This was disclosed by the Governor of Nigeria’s central bank, Mr Yemi Cardoso, on Wednesday, after the conclusion of the MPC meeting. He noted that the decision was hinged on Nigeria being largely insulated from external shocks relating to developments in the Middle East.
He also acknowledged that inflation and exchange rate stability were put into consideration during the two-day meeting.
The committee reduced the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points from 27.0 per cent to 26.5 per cent at its 304th MPC gathering in February.
Nigeria’s inflation rose to 15.69 per cent in April 2026, affected by the fallout from the Iran war, which continued to impact the global economy. Noting that year-on-year, the figures show a moderation rather than worry.
The headline inflation rate for April on a month-on-month basis was 2.13 per cent, while the food inflation rate in the review month was 16.06 per cent on a year-on-year basis.
Mr Cardoso noted that the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) was also retained at 45 per cent for commercial Banks, 16 per cent for Merchant Banks, and 75 per cent for non-TSA public sector deposits.
He added that the Standing Facilities Corridor was also held flat at +50 / -450 basis points around the MPR.
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