Economy
Rewane Explains Implications of CBN Naira 4 Dollar Scheme
By Adedapo Adesanya
Last week, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shocked Nigerians when it launched a new initiative tagged Naira 4 Dollar Scheme.
The scheme was part of efforts to incentivize senders and recipients of international money transfer. Under the campaign, all recipients of diaspora remittances through licensed International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) will be paid N5 for every $1 received as remittance inflows.
This has sent many Nigerians wondering what the new policy meant for the Nigerian currency, which has faced headwinds in the last few months.
Speaking on the likely implications of the currency promo, a renowned economist and the Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company, Mr Bismarck Rewane, during a chat with Business Morning on Channels TV on Monday, explained that the initiative from the CBN was a promo designed to increase the country’s awareness and the inflows of Nigeria’s diaspora into the country’s financial system.
He, however, noted that it was rare for the government to use such promotional schemes to promote inflows into the country.
“What is challenging here is that it is very unusual for policies to be tied around promos or gimmicks. Usually, promos and gimmicks are used by manufacturers to launch or push products, or airlines when they have low sales. So, they tie this kind of promo to buy one get one free or to revamp stagnant sales. So, it’s very unusual and peculiar for governments to engage in gimmicks or promos,” he noted.
He further said that the apex bank tailored the actions towards reducing the cost of remittances from the current cutthroat rates charged by the IMTOs.
The Governor of the central bank, Mr Godwin Emefiele, had recently explained that the models had been applied in Pakistan and Bangladesh. He said both South Asian countries had introduced reimbursement schemes to support inflows.
In the CBN chief’s words, “In Pakistan, the scheme, which is known as free send, has enabled record amount of inflows of over $2 billion a month even during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Bangladesh introduced its own scheme in June 2019, which is a two per cent rebate on remittance inflows. Following this action, they have also seen a 20 per cent boost in remittance inflows.”
Breaking it down further, Mr Rewane noted that the current diaspora inflows to Nigeria are estimated between $5 million and $7 million per day and that the central bank aims to increase to $30 million per day.
“In other words, 30 times 20 working days, you will get maybe $600 million. Well, that is not the point. The point is that it is an effective depreciation of 1 per cent of the currency because ever since this year, the Investors and Exporters’ (I&E) window rate had gone from N390 to N411. So, if you add N5, it is another 1 per cent.
“Nominally, the exchange rate is unchanged, but in reality, it is a depreciation of 1 per cent de facto.”
He noted that there a lot of risks associated with the policy because some people will round trip the policy using arbitrage. Arbitrage is the simultaneous purchase and sale of the same asset in different markets in order to profit from tiny differences in the asset’s listed price.
“So, people will try to use arbitrage on the system. But the fact is that Nigeria is number six in the world in terms of diaspora and workers remittances. It is estimated at about $20 to $25 billion [annually].
“The current pandemic and unemployment rates in the US, Canada, the European Union and the United Kingdom are also going to affect the ability of Nigeria to remit money in.
“These two trends have actually dropped sharply because of vaccination certificates and all sorts of the pandemic effect. So, basically, in the end, I think it’s a gimmick. It is a promo, the central bank will fully understand in the end that there’s no other way of managing an exchange rate than converging them, having one rate so that people don’t stop exploiting it.
“In any case, you collect cash, and you take it to the parallel market or autonomous sources to sell the Naira, and then come back and you get the N5. What could happen is that you could turn $1,000 back again to your brother, who will bring it back.
“So, what could happen is that there could be what I call playing with neurons, the same money turning around the velocity of separation increasing, whilst the quantity supplied into the market will not increase.
“So, but again, heavy innovation leads to some kind of creativity and will help. But in the end, let me put it this way, the price mechanism, the exchange rate has to be market-determined.
“Policymakers will intervene, to preserve to ensure that we don’t suffer from shocks, but it’s a work in progress, and then we’ll wait and see what happens.”
The promo is expected to run from March 8 through the next two month till May 8.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Food Concepts Plc neutralized the gains recorded by three securities, returning the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange into the negative territory with a 0.27 per cent loss on Thursday, December 4.
Yesterday, the share price of the parent company of Chicken Republic and PieXpress declined by 34 Kobo to sell at N3.15 per unit compared with the previous day’s N3.49 per unit.
This shrank the market capitalisation of the OTC bourse by N5.72 billion to N2.136 billion from N2.142 trillion and weakened the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 9.57 points to 3,571.53 points from 3,581.10 points.
Business Post reports that Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went down by 50 Kobo to N38.50 per share from N38.00 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc gained 29 Kobo to sell at N55.79 per unit versus N55.50 per unit, and Geo-Fluids Plc added 5 Kobo to close at N4.60 per share compared with Wednesday’s closing price of N4.55 per share.
Trading data indicated that the volume of securities recorded at the session surged by 6,885.3 per cent to 4.3 million units from the 61,570 units posted a day earlier, the value of securities increased by 10,301.7 per cent to N947.2 million from N3.3 million, and the number of deals went up by 146.7 per cent to 37 deals from the 15 deals achieved in the previous trading session.
At the close of business, Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc was the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with the sale of 5.8 billion units for N16.4 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 170.4 million units worth N8.0 billion, and Air Liquide Plc with 507.5 million units valued at N4.2 billion.
InfraCredit Plc also finished the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units transacted for N16.4 billion, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.2 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units traded for N524.9 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The upward trend witnessed at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited in recent sessions continued on Thursday as it further improved by 0.10 per cent.
This was despite investor sentiment turning bearish after the local equity market ended with 23 price gainers and 28 price gainers, indicating a negative market breadth index.
UAC Nigeria gained 10.00 per cent to finish at N88.00, Morison Industries appreciated by 9.94 per cent to N3.54, Ecobank rose by 8.53 per cent to N36.90, and Coronation Insurance grew by 8.47 per cent to N2.56.
On the flip side, Ellah Lakes depreciated by 10.00 per cent to N13.14, Eunisell Nigeria also shed 10.00 per cent to finish at N72.90, Transcorp Hotels slipped by 9.95 per cent to N157.50, Omatek shrank by 9.23 per cent to N1.18, and Guinea Insurance dipped by 8.46 per cent to N1.19.
Yesterday, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 152.28 points to 145,476.15 points from 145,323.87 points and the market capitalisation chalked up N97 billion to finish at N92.726 trillion compared with the previous day’s N92.629 trillion.
Customs Street was bubbling with activities on Thursday, though the trading volume and value slightly went down, according to data.
A total of 1.9 billion stocks worth N19.2 billion exchanged hands in 23,369 deals during the session versus the N2.3 billion valued at N21.0 billion traded in 21,513 deals a day earlier.
This showed that the number of deals increased by 8.63 per cent, the volume of transactions depleted by 17.39 per cent, and the value of trades decreased by 8.57 per cent.
For another trading day, eTranzact led the activity chart with 1.6 billion units sold for N6.4 billion, Fidelity Bank traded 31.0 million units worth N589.3 million, GTCO exchanged 28.3 million units valued at N2.5 billion, Zenith Bank transacted 27.1 million units for N1.6 billion, and Ecobank traded 21.9 million units worth N744.3 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira marginally depreciated against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Thursday, December 4 amid renewed forex pressure associated with December.
At the official market yesterday, the Nigerian currency lost 0.01 per cent or 18 Kobo against the Dollar to close at N1,447.83/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,447.65/$1.
It was not a different scenario with the local currency in the same market segment against the Pound Sterling as it further shed N15.43 to sell for N1,930.97/£1 versus Wednesday’s closing price of N1,925.08/£1 and declined against the Euro by 20 Kobo to finish at N1,688.74/€1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,688.54/€1.
Similarly, the Nigerian Naira lost N5 against the greenback in the black market to quote at N1,465/$1 compared with the previous day’s value of N1,460/$1 but closed flat against the Dollar at the GTBank FX counter at N1,453/$1.
Fluctuations in trading range is expected to continue during the festive season as traders expect the Nigerian currency to be stable, supported by intervention s by to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)in the face of steady dollar demand.
Support is also expected in coming weeks as seasonal activities, particularly the stylised “Detty December” festivities, will see inflows that will give the Naira a boost after it depreciated mildly last month, according to a new report.
“As the festive Detty December season intensifies, inbound travel, tourism spending, and diaspora inflows are expected to provide moderate support for FX liquidity,” analysts at the research unit of FMDA said in its latest monthly report for November.
Traders cited by Reuters expect that the Naira will trade within a band of N1,443-N1,450 next week, buoyed by improved FX interventions by the apex bank.
Meanwhile, the crypto market was down as the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, likely rose in September—moving in the wrong direction. However, volatility indices show no signs of major turbulence.
If the actual figure matches estimates, it would mark 55 straight months of inflation above the US central bank’s 2 per cent target. The sticky inflation would strengthen the hawkish policymakers, who are in favour of slower rate cuts.
Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 4.5 per cent to $2.08, Solana (SOL) went down by 3.8 per cent to $138.11, Litecoin (LTC) shrank by 3.1 per cent to $83.23, Dogecoin (DOGE) slid by 2.5 per cent to $0.1463, Cardano (ADA) declined by 2.1 per cent to $0.4368, Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.9 per cent to $91,975.45, Binance Coin (BNB) crumbled by 0.9 per cent to $899.41, and Ethereum (ETH) dropped by 0.7 per cent to $3,156.44, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 apiece.
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