Economy
Seplat Plc: Will the Bulls Crossover?
By ARM Research
Following our last note, Seplat Plc – Revision to Forecast published on Nov 7th, Seplat has returned 20.5% with YTD return of 57%.
Much of the early gains was underpinned by the lifting of force majeure on the Trans-Forcados Pipeline (TFP) which drove a marked rebound in performance in the third quarter of 2017 with the company posting profit after tax (PAT) of $22.3million, after realizing losses in six consecutive quarters.
Particularly, oil revenue at $115million almost doubled from the prior quarter, anchored by higher production of 26.4kbpd while gas sales remained resilient posting $31.5 million (+7.5% QoQ) as gross daily gas output touched a high of 352Mscfd (working interest: 111Mscfd).
At the latter, it was a play of cheap valuation and bargain hunting. In sync with our investment case for Seplat which tilts towards 2018 wherein we had projected a substantial upside in earnings hinged on balance sheet deleveraging as well as improved and more stable P&L.
Our view was premised on the company’s return to past production levels and de-risked earnings via the addition of a new export route to existing two routes.
Consequently, we had earlier forecasted a 90-day downtime in 2018 with working interest production forecast of 45.5bopd and over four-fold increase in PAT to $108.6 million (2017E: $19.4 million). In line with this adjustment, Seplat remained well positioned to relatively outperform its larger peers, trading at a 2018 P/CF of 1.7x compared to African peers’ and FTSE 350 Oil & Gas index of 5.5x and 12.05x respectively. As it stands, the stock is currently trading at a premium of 130bps to our last communicated FVE of N588.11.
So how does it look from here?
Beyond our earlier views on higher production, lower all-in cost, balance sheet deleveraging and deceleration in Capex which should drive cash-flow and ROE improvement, the recent rally in crude oil prices (Brent) and Seplat’ s tax allowance provision (estimate: $98 million) provides fresh upside to earnings.
Riding the oil price upswing. As a pure E&P play, Seplat’s earnings are more sensitive to oil prices. Consequently, we run a scenario analysis of 2018 key financial metrics at varying crude oil prices while keeping our production forecast intact. From our analysis, every $5/bbl. increase in Brent crude prices could lift 2018 earnings by ~25%; while every $5/bbl increase in long-term oil price could raise our FVE by about N45/share or 8%.
We have now raised our 2018 earnings by 26% in FY 2018, in line with the accelerated rebalancing in the crude oil market and house views on 2018 Brent price (base case of $60/bbl.). However, crude oil prices below $40/bbl. and a reappearance of insecurity in the Niger delta may trigger a downward review to earnings.
Balance sheet should de-leverage significantly. We think net debt to free cash flow will fall sizably from the current level of 1.7x to 1.2x by FY 18. Seplat is expected to rake in stronger operating cash flows of c.$300million over 2018 well above capital spending (estimate: $20 million capex). With the significant deleveraging in the balance sheet based on our estimates, there is clear capacity for enhanced shareholder return via resumption of dividend payments in 2018. Furthermore, while Seplat has no explicit dividend policy, we find that full-year dividend per share (DPS) has displayed strong correlation to its operating cash flow per share. Thus, with earnings and operating cash flow expected to rebound in FY 2018 on higher oil prices and production, we assume that DPS in FY 2018 will be $0.05.
Key Risks. Lower-than-expected oil prices and production are the key risks. The most apparent near-term driver for such a scenario would be an increase in US crude oil supply as well as the risk of OPEC falling apart. Upside risk would stem from the contrary, if oil prices increase above projected levels. Also, return of security concerns in the Niger Delta in the run-up to election is another key risk to earnings. However, with three alternative export routes, Seplat is in a better position than prior year.
Valuation is more compelling. We raise our FVE from N588.11 to N663.85 after reviewing our model and considering the possibility of higher crude oil prices. Our revised target equates to 2018 P/E and P/CF of 5.0x and 1.4x compared with African peers of 14.4x and 3.5x respectively.
Source: ARM Securities Limited
“All rights reserved. This publication or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of ARM Securities Limited.”
Economy
SEC Advances Fintech Innovation With Seven New ARIP Approvals
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has cleared seven new fintech and digital asset firms for admission into its Accelerated Regulatory Incubation Programme (ARIP), granting them Approval-in-Principle (AIP) to operate within the programme’s regulatory sandbox as part of efforts to promote innovation while protecting investors.
The commission said the move reinforces its commitment to fostering responsible innovation that deepens Nigeria’s capital market without compromising market integrity.
The seven firms set for admission into the programme are Bitbarter Technologies Limited, Luno Fintech Nigeria Limited, GetEquity Limited, Koinkoin Global Network Limited, Wrapped CBDC Ltd, Trovotech Ltd and Blockvault Custodian Ltd.
According to the SEC, the Approval-in-Principle permits the firms to operate within the defined scope of the programme, subject to conditions stipulated by the Commission.
It clarified that the approval is not a final operating licence but confirms that each entity has satisfied the admission requirements for ARIP.
“An Approval-in-Principle confirms that an entity has satisfied the Commission’s admission requirements for the Programme. It is not a final licence and remains conditional on the entity’s continued compliance with all applicable regulatory, operational, and supervisory obligations,” the Commission stated.
The ARIP is a controlled regulatory environment established by the SEC to accelerate the onboarding of digital asset and other investment service providers, including Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) and tokenised product platforms.
The programme enables the Commission to evaluate emerging business models and financial technologies under regulatory supervision before they are offered to the investing public.
According to the commission, the initiative is designed to ensure that adequate safeguards are in place to protect investors while preserving the integrity of Nigeria’s capital market.
The SEC reiterated its commitment to supporting innovation that enhances efficiency, transparency, financial inclusion and sustainable growth in the capital market through initiatives such as ARIP.
It also urged members of the public to verify the regulatory status of individuals or organisations promoting investment products or services through its official channels before committing funds.
Economy
FG Denies IMF Allegation of 2% GDP Off-Budget Expenditure
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian government has dismissed claims by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that it spent about two per cent of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) outside the approved budget.
The widely reported claim was made by the IMF’s Resident Representative in Nigeria, Mr Christian Ebeke, last week. He alleged that the country failed to record public spending equivalent to about two per cent of its GDP in recent official budgets, amounting to about N8 trillion.
But in a statement issued on Sunday, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, said the federal government does not operate a “shadow budget” or spend public funds outside the constitutional and statutory framework governing public finance, and described the reports as a misrepresentation of Mr Ebeke’s comments.
He explained that sections 80–83 and 162 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) provide that public funds can only be withdrawn and spent in accordance with the Constitution and laws enacted by the National Assembly.
According to him, all FG spending is backed by duly enacted Appropriation Acts, Supplementary Appropriation Acts or other statutory authorisations approved by the National Assembly.
Mr Oyedele added that multi-year capital projects, which span several budget cycles, are implemented in line with existing laws and approved capital rollover provisions where applicable.
“These are recognised features of public financial management and should not be misconstrued as expenditures outside the budget,” he said.
He described as inaccurate suggestions that trillions of naira were secretly spent without legislative approval, arguing that such allegations should identify the specific projects allegedly executed without appropriation or legal authority and provide credible evidence to support the claims.
“To be meaningful, assertions of this magnitude must be supported by verifiable facts rather than conjecture.
“For the purpose of public education, it is important to distinguish between appropriation, expenditure authorisation, financing and fiscal reporting,” he added.
Mr Oyedele said Nigeria’s public finance framework includes several statutory transfers, first-line charges and intervention mechanisms established by Acts of the National Assembly.
These, he said, include statutory allocations to development commissions and other agencies created by law, cost of collection and administration retained by designated revenue-collecting agencies, capital expenditure approved under separate budgets for some agencies and the Federal Capital Territory, special interventions for national priorities such as security, infrastructure and disaster response, as well as debt service obligations and other statutory transfers.
The minister maintained that the expenditures are neither secret nor illegal, stressing that they are established by law, disclosed in official fiscal reports and subject to oversight, audit and accountability mechanisms.
“Their treatment for reporting purposes may differ from their presentation in the annual Appropriation Act, particularly under international statistical and reporting standards adopted by the Federal Government. Such classification differences should not be misrepresented as evidence of unlawful expenditure,” he said.
Mr Oyedele also rejected claims that the reported amount represented an increase in Nigeria’s budget deficit.
“A fiscal deficit is determined by the relationship between total government revenues and total government expenditures. Whether a capital project is financed through annual appropriations, supplementary appropriations, statutory transfers, approved intervention mechanisms, or other lawful financing arrangements does not, by itself, increase the fiscal deficit,” he said.
He further explained that the IMF’s observation related primarily to the comprehensiveness, timing and presentation of Nigeria’s fiscal reporting rather than the legality of government expenditure.
According to him, Nigeria, like many other countries, is working to improve the alignment between its budget presentation and international fiscal reporting standards as part of ongoing public financial management reforms.
Mr Oyedele recalled that President Bola Tinubu had, during the presentation of the 2026 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of the National Assembly on December 19, 2025, urged lawmakers to end the practice of operating multiple and overlapping budgets and instead adopt a single, harmonised budget framework.
He said the federal government remains committed to prudent fiscal management, transparency and accountability, adding that recent reforms have strengthened budget credibility, revenue administration, treasury management and the digitalisation of government financial processes.
According to him, these reforms have been acknowledged by the IMF, other multilateral institutions, international credit rating agencies, investors and major global media organisations.
While describing public debate as essential in a democracy, Mr Oyedele urged commentators to base their arguments on facts and a proper understanding of Nigeria’s constitutional and fiscal framework.
“Mischaracterising technical observations as evidence of unlawful expenditure neither advances informed public discourse nor strengthens democratic accountability,” he said.
He added that the federal government would continue to uphold the rule of law, ensure transparency in the management of public resources and work with the National Assembly, oversight institutions, development partners and Nigerians to further strengthen fiscal governance in line with international best practices
Economy
Ahimie to Position CIS as Key Contributor to Capital Market, National Economy
By Dipo Olowookere
The 14th president and chairman of the council of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS), Ms Fiona Ahimie, has promised to position the organisation as a leading professional body contributing meaningfully to the growth and development of the Nigerian capital market and the national economy.
She made this commitment during her swearing-in ceremony on Thursday, June 25, 2026, as the first female leader of the 34-year-old institute.
Ms Ahimie also pledged to strengthen professional excellence, deepen stakeholder engagement, expand financial literacy, promote youth and women’s development, and drive innovation and digital transformation.
The event, which was attended by several capital market stakeholders, was also used as a send-off ceremony for Ms Ahimie’s predecessor, Mr Oluropo Samuel Dada, in recognition of his exemplary leadership and dedicated service to the organisation over the past two years.
Present were Nigeria’s Vice President, Mr Kashim Shettima, represented by the Special Adviser to the President on Economic Affairs, Mr Tope Fasua; the Minister of Women Affairs & Social Development, Ms Imaan Sulaiman-Ibrahim; the Governor of Ekiti State, Mr Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji; the Governor of Lagos State, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu, represented by the Commissioner for Finance, Mr Abayomi Oluyomi; the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Olayemi Cardoso, represented by the Director of Financial Policy & Regulations at the CBN, Ms Rita Ijeoma Sike; the Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Mr Emomotimi Agama; the Chairman of First Holdco, Mr Femi Otedola, represented by the chief executive First Holdco, Mr Adebowale Oyedeji; the former DG of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), formerly known as the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), Ms Ndi Okereke-Onyiuke; and the chairman of NGX Group, Mr Umaru Kwairanga, amongst others.
-
Feature/OPED6 years agoDavos was Different this year
-
Travel/Tourism10 years ago
Lagos Seals Western Lodge Hotel In Ikorodu
-
Showbiz4 years agoEstranged Lover Releases Videos of Empress Njamah Bathing
-
Banking8 years agoSort Codes of GTBank Branches in Nigeria
-
Economy3 years agoSubsidy Removal: CNG at N130 Per Litre Cheaper Than Petrol—IPMAN
-
Banking3 years agoSort Codes of UBA Branches in Nigeria
-
Banking3 years agoFirst Bank Announces Planned Downtime
-
Sports3 years agoHighest Paid Nigerian Footballer – How Much Do Nigerian Footballers Earn


