Economy
Stock Analysis: Nestle Nigeria Q1-18 EPS Behind Expectation; SELL
By Cordros Research
Nestle Nigeria Plc recently published Q1-18 result showing EPS grew by a marginal 3% y/y to NGN10.86, which is behind what the market expects for the period by 15%.
Compared to our estimate, the achieved EBIT was short by 1% while EPS missed by 25%, owing to significant variation (-161%) on the net finance cost line.
In-line revenue; 2018E estimate unchanged:
Q1-18 revenue grew by 10.3%, consistent with our 10% growth estimate for the period. Annualized, the achieved revenue is behind market expectation by only 2%. A 15% q/q revenue growth suggests volume recovered strongly from the slack in the Oct-Dec period of last year, although we estimate volume may have grown at low single digit relative to Q1-17. Food revenue grew by 7% y/y while Beverages –benefiting from a low base volume in our view – grew by a bigger 17% y/y.
Compared to Q4-17, both segments recorded 16% and 11% top-line growth respectively. Thus far from our routine checks, prices have been stable for most of NESTLE’s products compared with end-2017 levels, and although early – but we observed the gradually reducing on-the-shelve prices of consumer products across major outlets – reemphasizes our view on volume-led growth in 2018.
Our 10% revenue growth estimate for 2018E is unchanged.
Low Q1 gross margin; forming a trend?
Gross margin of 38.2% was achieved in Q1-18, slightly below the 39% we estimated for the period. Gross margin in Q1-17 was equally low (at least compared to Q4-16’s 45%) at 38.4%, before recovering to 42% average between Q2-Q4 of 2017.
We retain our 42% gross estimate for 2018E (vs. 41% in 2017FY), suggesting we expect recovery in subsequent quarters. Our estimate is in sync with the 41% gross margin the company had achieved historically before the bump to 45% in 2015FY. The major risks to our gross margin estimate are (1) lower selling price and (2) the increase we have observed thus far this year in the price of local maize. Although the risks are tempered by the (1) relatively lesser competition, given the strong loyalty that NESTLE’s brands enjoy, (2) stable and even improving currency exchange rate, and (3) softer prices of other raw material inputs such as sorghum, sugar, and dairy.
Q1-18 EBIT margin was lower by 8 bps y/y, driven majorly by the lower gross margin, and also because opex as a ratio of revenue only declined by a marginal 14 bps. We have 23% EBIT margin in our model for 2018E (the same 23% EBIT margin as in 2017FY), while noting that upside risks are almost the same as downsides.
Surprisingly high finance costs risk earnings growing below expectation:
The interest expense of NGN521 million (5% y/y and 158% q/q) and FX loss of NGN639 million (-38% y/y and 3118% q/q) reported in Q1-18 are both high in our view, considering NESTLE’s much reduced borrowings and the stable FX. We have consequently revised our finance cost estimate for 2018E higher by 105%, given that the amount reported in Q1 alone is more than half our prior estimate for the year. We should note that the expectation of a much lower finance cost carries significant weight both in our view, and the market’s of NESTLE’s earnings growth in 2018E. Gross loans as at end-march was NGN18.11 billion (vs. NGN48.7 billion in Mar, 2017 and NGN24.2 billion in Dec. 2017), the lowest since 2009FY.
Earnings estimate and valuation:
Compared to our previous estimate, we revise 2018E net profit lower by 6% to reflect the changes on the net finance cost line. On 2017FY results, our revised net profit estimate is higher by 37% (previously 46%). On our revised estimates, we have a DCF-based TP of NGN851.48 (previously NGN851.92) for NESTLE and maintain SELL rating. The stock is trading at forward (2018E) P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples of 27.4x and 18.3x respectively, at premium to Middle East and Africa peer averages of 18.7x and 12.4x.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
In a bid to help investors recover about N270 billion in unclaimed dividends in the capital market, a nationwide enlightenment campaign has been launched by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
This initiative involves town hall meetings that would go around the country to sensitise Nigerians on the need to claim these fallow funds.
The Director General of SEC, Mr Emomotimi Agama, speaking at a town hall meeting in Lagos, said the regulator is not happy that investors, who worked hard to purchase shares in the stock market, have not claimed their profits for many years, making unclaimed dividends pile up.
“The commission considers this situation unacceptable. Funds belonging to investors should ultimately find their way back to their rightful owners,” the SEC chief, represented at the event by the Director of Registration and Exchanges, Market Infrastructure Department, Ms Hafsat Rufai, stated.
He said during this campaign Nigerians would be informed of the unclaimed monies, the role of the National Investor Protection Fund (NIPF), and the procedures for verifying and recovering legitimate claims, stressing that SEC is committed to ensuring that investors’ funds are returned to their rightful owners.
The DG stated that unclaimed monies administered by the NIPF include return funds from public offers, scheme consideration arising from mergers, acquisitions and corporate restructuring transactions, as well as other capital market-related funds that have remained dormant.
He disclosed that the town hall meetings would be held in the six geopolitical zones and the Federal Capital Territory.
In addition, electronic and social media platforms would be used to broaden public awareness on this issue, with efforts to be made to address the transmission of securities following the death of an investor, noting that many families were either unaware that their deceased relatives owned shares or lacked knowledge of the legal and administrative procedures required to transfer such investments to rightful beneficiaries.
“As a result, valuable investments and returns on investments sometimes remain inaccessible for many years, thereby denying beneficiaries the financial benefits intended for them,” he said, urging investors to maintain proper records of their investments and encouraging families to take proactive steps to preserve inherited wealth.
By Dipo Olowookere
The decision of investors to book profit after the previous session’s gains pulled back Customs Street by 0.09 per cent on Thursday.
The selling pressure was mainly on BUA Cement, which put the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited off-balance during the session.
Analysis of the trading data showed that the industrial goods sector was the sole decliner, losing 2.85 per cent, as a result of the poor performance of BUA Cement at the market yesterday.
The other key sectors of the bourse were bullish, with the banking space up by 2.87 per cent. The consumer goods index appreciated by 0.30 per cent, the insurance counter improved by 0.16 per cent, and the energy segment rose by 0.08 per cent.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) went down by 221.14 points to 242,145.61 points from 242,366.75 points, and the market capitalisation decreased by N32 billion to N156.207 trillion from N156.239 trillion.
Eunisell crashed by 10.00 per cent to N189.00, BUA Cement lost 9.99 per cent to quote at N275.60, CAP declined by 9.61 per cent to N142.45, Royal Exchange slipped by 9.55 per cent to N1.42, and Guinea Insurance tumbled by 5.38 per cent to 88 Kobo.
Conversely, First Holdco soared by 9.96 per cent to N87.25, McNichols gained 8.00 per cent to trade at N5.40, UBA appreciated by 7.93 per cent to N44.25, Veritas Kapital jumped by 6.85 per cent to N1.56, and Jaiz Bank chalked up 4.07 per cent to settle at N8.95.
It was observed that the market breadth index was positive after the exchange closed the session with 22 price losers and 27 price gainers, representing strong investor sentiment.
A total of 498.5 million shares valued at N34.9 billion were traded in 39,484 deals on Thursday, in contrast to the 476.3 million shares worth N29.6 billion transacted in 40,992 deals on Wednesday. This indicated that the trading volume grew by 4.66 per cent, the trading value increased by 17.91 per cent, and the number of deals depreciated by 3.68 per cent.
Japaul ended the day as the busiest equity after trading 77.7 million units for N231.5 million, Access Holdings sold 41.2 million units valued at N1.0 billion, First Holdco exchanged 38.8 million units worth N3.4 billion, UBA transacted 31.5 million units for N1.4 billion, and Fidelity Bank traded 23.8 million units worth N495.0 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices settled about 1 per cent lower on Thursday even as the Iran war escalated, with the Middle East oil producer asking Yemen’s Houthi movement to be prepared to close the Red Sea oil export route.
Brent crude futures fell by 72 cents or about 0.9 per cent to trade at $84.23 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures depreciated by 65 cents or 0.8 per cent to close at $78.95 a barrel.
Iran has instructed Yemen’s Houthi movement to stand ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the vital gateway to the Red Sea, if the US follows through on threats to strike Iranian power infrastructure.
Market analysts warned that with the Strait of Hormuz already closed, the latest threat raises the serious risk of both of the Middle East’s primary oil export routes being disrupted at the same time.
About 7.4 million barrels of petroleum transited Bab el-Mandeb per day in June, about 7 per cent of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million barrels per day last year.
This week, US President Donald Trump repeated oft-stated threats to strike Iranian power plants and bridges.
According to senior Iranian sources, the Islamic Republic’s leadership has discussed the idea with Iran’s Houthi allies, with the rebel forces now awaiting definitive orders to begin targeting maritime traffic.
In a sign of escalating tensions in the region, the Houthis fired missiles at Saudi Arabia after accusing the kingdom of bombing an airport under their control on Monday, breaking a four-year truce in the conflict between the kingdom and the group.
This comes as Saudi Arabia is currently evaluating a massive infrastructure expansion to permanently upgrade the capacity of its western pipeline and terminal networks.
Any additional disruptions could force international shipping firms to redirect vessels around Africa, inflating transit costs and worsening the global energy crisis.
On Wednesday, the US struck Iran’s coastal defences and missile sites after reimposing a naval blockade of its ports, while the two countries exchanged intensified fire on Thursday, which kept pressure on prices upward.
However, weighing on prices was Iran’s release of a US citizen, which could point toward a path to avert the resumption of all-out war.
