Economy
Stock Analysis: UBA Plc, Upward Revision to 2017F Estimates; BUY

In its recently released H1-17 results, UBA recorded a significant growth in gross earnings (+34.51% y/y), driven by impressive growth across income lines– interest income (+44.25%) and non-interest revenue (+16.01%).
Over H2, we believe the improved yields on interest earning assets (expanded 205 bps to 12.32% in H1-17) – from repricing of loans and elevated yields on investment securities – will remain robust.
Hence, for 2017F, we forecast 50 bps y/y expansion in asset yield to 12.15%, resulting in interest income growth of 22.18% y/y to N322.53 billion.
On NIR, we believe the gains on FX trading (due to fx related gains and derivative transactions) and growth in fixed income securities trading will persist for the rest of the year (albeit marginal over H2), and as a result, we forecast NIR growth of 24.90% y/y to N132.01 billion for 2017F.
Accordingly, we have raised our gross earnings growth forecast higher to 49.44% y/y (previously 30.28%) in 2017F to N470.50 billion.
On funding cost, we have reviewed our 2017F cost of funds estimate 43 bps higher to 4.11%, translating to an interest expense growth of 27.82% y/y to N126.25 billion. Our upward review is driven by the surge in interest charge on borrowings – a development we attribute to the bank’s recently issued USD500 million Eurobond at a yield of 7.875% and a range of bilateral facility secured during the year – and Fed Rates hikes impact on LIBOR linked borrowings.
Note that these drove 38 bps y/y rise in cost of funds to 3.75% in H1-17.
However, we believe the strong yields on interest earning assets will outweigh the expansion in funding cost, thus, we estimate net interest margin to advance 32 bps y/y to 7.02%.
In H1-17, loan loss provision (+104.25% q/q and 8.94% y/y) surged, resulting in 129 bps y/y uptick in cost of risk to 1.93% (NPL came in ahead of 2016 level at 4.20% in H1-17), above management’s 1.5% guidance for 2017F.
The expansion in cost of risk during the period stemmed from an additional N8.57 billion provision for specific credit loss impairment, which we believe relates to exposure to general commerce, manufacturing, oil & gas, and power.
At 4.2% in H1-17, NPL was well-ahead of 2016FY’s 3.90%. For 2017F, we estimate UBA’s NPL to increase to 4.80%, from 3.90% in FY-16, and cost of risk is expected to remain elevated over H2-17, to 2.00% by year end, translating to a credit loss provision of N32.04 billion in 2017F.
Despite the impact of both the change in the treatment of AMCOM levy (which resulted in a one-off charge on other opex) and the increases in personnel expenses and depreciation expense on total opex (37.35% y/y), efficiency measures still improved over H1-17 (supported by the significant growth in operating income), with cost to income ratio contracting 80 bps to 58.60%.
For the rest of the year, we believe cost will moderate across key lines, thus, we forecast 22.22% y/y growth in opex to N186.38 billion, translating to a 593 bps y/y contraction in cost to income ratio to 56.77%, while we expect operational leverage to rise to 5.1x, compared to 4.9x in FY-16.
Overall, we forecast PBT and PAT growth of 74.51% and 14.28% to N109.87 and N82.58 billion respectively, equating to 14.28% expansion in EPS (2017F: N2.28).
UBA’s FX related gains have been largely buoyed by its sizeable FCY position from the issuance of Eurobond and inflows from other FCY borrowings during the year. The balance sheet as at H1-17 reveals that FCY borrowings worth USD405.46 million (Citi Bank Syndicated Facility USD30.46 million, Africa Trade Finance Limited USD75 million and Credit Suisse Tranche A & B USD300 million) are due for maturity between August and December 2017.
As such, we believe PAT growth will be marginal over 2018-2019F, as FX related and revaluation gains taper and NIR contribution to gross earnings contract.
Following the upward adjustment to EPS, we raised our target price by 12.17% to N12.62 (previous: N11.25) and rolled forward our valuation to 2018.
Our current 12-month TP implies upside potential of 31.59% from current levels; consequently, we recommend a BUY on the stock.
UBA is currently trading at 2017F P/BVPS of 0.7x (below the peer average of 0.9x, but in line with the 5-year average of 0.7x) and 2017 FP/E of 4.5x (below the peer average of 5.5x, but above the 5-year average of 3.1x).
Economy
Dangote Pays N402.3bn Tax to Boost Nigerian Economy

By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Over N402.3 billion was paid in taxes in 2024 by Dangote Industries Limited (DIL) as part of its efforts to support the federal government.
The taxes were paid by the subsidiaries of the pan-African conglomerate comprising Dangote Cement, NASCON, Dangote Packaging Limited among others.
Recall that Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) had in late 2024 recognised DIL and its subsidiary, Bluestar Shipping as the most tax compliant organizations in the country during its Special Day at the 2024 Lagos International Trade Fair organised by the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI).
The FIRS is the agency responsible for assessing, collecting and accounting for tax and other revenues accruing to the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The N402.3 billion paid by DIL last year made the company the highest taxpayer in the country.
Speaking during a meeting with some senior media executives in Lagos, the Chief Branding and Communication Officer of Dangote Group, Mr Anthony Chiejina, as a responsible business organisation, DIL and its subsidiaries have never shied away from its obligations either to the government in the form of tax payment at all levels or to host communities in the form of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR).
According to him, the group’s corporate strategy has evolved just as its businesses have grown, matured and diversified into new sectors and regions over the last four decades, noting that Dangote Group has almost single-handedly taken Nigeria to self-sufficiency in cement and refined petroleum products and is expanding rapidly across Africa.
Dangote Group and its subsidiaries were recognised as number one most compliant in tax payment in the country, just as the cement business at another occasion won three awards at the FMDQ Gold Awards in Lagos as the most active business in the Foreign Exchange market.
Dangote Cement Plc was adjudged as the Largest Commercial Paper Quotation on FMDQ and Single Largest Corporate Debt Issue on FMDQ. Also, Dangote Industries Ltd also emerged as the “Most active corporate in the foreign exchange market”.
Economy
AKK, OB3 Projects to Revolutionise Nigeria’s Gas Market—Ekpo

By Adedapo Adesanya
The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Mr Ekperikpe Ekpo, has said that the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) and Obrikom, Obiafu, and Oben (OB3) gas pipelines when completed will change Nigeria’s fortune in the gas market.
He added that this would help the nation’s economy, drive industrialisation and job creation.
Mr Ekpo declared that Nigeria’s gas sector is undergoing a historic transformation under President Bola Tinubu’s administration, with strategic infrastructure projects set to position the country as a leading gas-powered economy.
Speaking recently at the Nigerian International Energy Summit, he stressed that the planned completion of the 614-kilometer AKK gas pipeline this year, will significantly boost gas supply to industrial and commercial hubs.
“The 614-kilometer AKK pipeline, which is scheduled for completion in 2025, will significantly boost gas supply to key industrial and commercial hubs. This project, along with the OB3 pipeline, will stimulate industrialization, create jobs, and attract investments in manufacturing and power generation.
“These projects are a testament to our commitment to positioning Nigeria as a leading gas-powered economy by 2030 under the Decade of Gas Initiative,” Mr Ekpo said.
He noted that several moves and partnerships have been established by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.
“These partnerships have resulted in the establishment of five mini LNG plants—Prime LNG, BUA LNG, Highland LNG, NGML/GasNexus LNG, and LNG Arete—all in Ajaokuta, Kogi State. By liquefying gas from existing pipelines and transporting it to areas in need, these plants will enhance economic growth and energy security, particularly in the Northern region.”
The minister also lauded the Group CEO of NNPC Limited, Mr Mele Kyari, for his commitment to expanding mini LNG projects across all geopolitical zones, aligning with President Tinubu’s vision of using natural gas to drive economic growth.
Mr Ekpo reaffirmed the federal government’s commitment to alternative energy solutions, citing the nationwide Compressed Natural Gas, CNG program as a key initiative.
“With over 100,000 vehicles targeted for conversion and a $200 million investment in CNG infrastructure, this programme is a critical step toward reducing transportation costs and promoting energy sustainability,” he said.
Mr Ekpo emphasized that all these efforts align with Nigeria’s Decade of Gas Initiative, which aims to position the country as a leading gas-powered economy by 2030.
“The federal government is actively attracting investments in LNG, CNG, and gas-to-chemicals to create a business-friendly environment that fosters industrialization, job creation, and energy security.
“These projects are a testament to our commitment to a cleaner and more prosperous future for Nigeria,” he added.
Economy
Haldane McCall to Pay 7 Kobo Dividend to Shareholders April 25

By Dipo Olowookere
Shareholders of Haldane McCall will receive a final dividend of 7 Kobo on Monday, April 7, 2025, for the financial year ended December 31, 2024.
A notice from the firm said the qualification date for this cash reward is Monday, March 31, 2025.
In the disclosure filed to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, the company emphasised that the dividend would be paid only to shareholders who have “completed the e-dividend registration and mandated the registrar to pay their dividends directly into their bank accounts.”
It, therefore, advised shareholders who have yet to complete the e-dividend registration to download the registrar’s e-dividend mandate activation form, complete and submit to the registrar or their respective banks for processing.
In addition, it stated that those with dividend warrants and share certificates that have remained unclaimed, or are yet to be presented for payment or returned for validation, should complete the e-dividend registration or contact the Registrar.
Haldane McCall said the dividend is subject to appropriate withholding tax and approval of shareholders at the forthcoming Annual General Meeting (AGM).
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