Economy
Stock Analysis: UBA Plc, Upward Revision to 2017F Estimates; BUY
In its recently released H1-17 results, UBA recorded a significant growth in gross earnings (+34.51% y/y), driven by impressive growth across income lines– interest income (+44.25%) and non-interest revenue (+16.01%).
Over H2, we believe the improved yields on interest earning assets (expanded 205 bps to 12.32% in H1-17) – from repricing of loans and elevated yields on investment securities – will remain robust.
Hence, for 2017F, we forecast 50 bps y/y expansion in asset yield to 12.15%, resulting in interest income growth of 22.18% y/y to N322.53 billion.
On NIR, we believe the gains on FX trading (due to fx related gains and derivative transactions) and growth in fixed income securities trading will persist for the rest of the year (albeit marginal over H2), and as a result, we forecast NIR growth of 24.90% y/y to N132.01 billion for 2017F.
Accordingly, we have raised our gross earnings growth forecast higher to 49.44% y/y (previously 30.28%) in 2017F to N470.50 billion.
On funding cost, we have reviewed our 2017F cost of funds estimate 43 bps higher to 4.11%, translating to an interest expense growth of 27.82% y/y to N126.25 billion. Our upward review is driven by the surge in interest charge on borrowings – a development we attribute to the bank’s recently issued USD500 million Eurobond at a yield of 7.875% and a range of bilateral facility secured during the year – and Fed Rates hikes impact on LIBOR linked borrowings.
Note that these drove 38 bps y/y rise in cost of funds to 3.75% in H1-17.
However, we believe the strong yields on interest earning assets will outweigh the expansion in funding cost, thus, we estimate net interest margin to advance 32 bps y/y to 7.02%.
In H1-17, loan loss provision (+104.25% q/q and 8.94% y/y) surged, resulting in 129 bps y/y uptick in cost of risk to 1.93% (NPL came in ahead of 2016 level at 4.20% in H1-17), above management’s 1.5% guidance for 2017F.
The expansion in cost of risk during the period stemmed from an additional N8.57 billion provision for specific credit loss impairment, which we believe relates to exposure to general commerce, manufacturing, oil & gas, and power.
At 4.2% in H1-17, NPL was well-ahead of 2016FY’s 3.90%. For 2017F, we estimate UBA’s NPL to increase to 4.80%, from 3.90% in FY-16, and cost of risk is expected to remain elevated over H2-17, to 2.00% by year end, translating to a credit loss provision of N32.04 billion in 2017F.
Despite the impact of both the change in the treatment of AMCOM levy (which resulted in a one-off charge on other opex) and the increases in personnel expenses and depreciation expense on total opex (37.35% y/y), efficiency measures still improved over H1-17 (supported by the significant growth in operating income), with cost to income ratio contracting 80 bps to 58.60%.
For the rest of the year, we believe cost will moderate across key lines, thus, we forecast 22.22% y/y growth in opex to N186.38 billion, translating to a 593 bps y/y contraction in cost to income ratio to 56.77%, while we expect operational leverage to rise to 5.1x, compared to 4.9x in FY-16.
Overall, we forecast PBT and PAT growth of 74.51% and 14.28% to N109.87 and N82.58 billion respectively, equating to 14.28% expansion in EPS (2017F: N2.28).
UBA’s FX related gains have been largely buoyed by its sizeable FCY position from the issuance of Eurobond and inflows from other FCY borrowings during the year. The balance sheet as at H1-17 reveals that FCY borrowings worth USD405.46 million (Citi Bank Syndicated Facility USD30.46 million, Africa Trade Finance Limited USD75 million and Credit Suisse Tranche A & B USD300 million) are due for maturity between August and December 2017.
As such, we believe PAT growth will be marginal over 2018-2019F, as FX related and revaluation gains taper and NIR contribution to gross earnings contract.
Following the upward adjustment to EPS, we raised our target price by 12.17% to N12.62 (previous: N11.25) and rolled forward our valuation to 2018.
Our current 12-month TP implies upside potential of 31.59% from current levels; consequently, we recommend a BUY on the stock.
UBA is currently trading at 2017F P/BVPS of 0.7x (below the peer average of 0.9x, but in line with the 5-year average of 0.7x) and 2017 FP/E of 4.5x (below the peer average of 5.5x, but above the 5-year average of 3.1x).
Economy
Selective Buying in Bellwether Stocks Further Raises NGX by 1.28%
By Dipo Olowookere
The decision of investors to cherry-pick stocks with sound fundamentals across categories further lifted the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited by 1.28 per cent on Wednesday.
This selective buying of equities was inspired by the earnings season, as companies that have already released their 2025 financial statements have impressed market participants.
However, the insurance sector experienced profit-taking yesterday, causing its index to go down by 0.84 per cent at the close of business.
But this loss was offset by the 2.33 per cent growth achieved by the banking index, with the other remaining sectors also closing in green. The energy industry appreciated by 1.52 per cent, the industrial goods landscape expanded by 1.20 per cent, and the consumer goods counter improved by 1.09 per cent.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 2,128.61 points to 168,030.18 points from 165,901.57 points and the market capitalization rose by N1.366 trillion to N107.861 trillion from the previous day’s N106.495 trillion.
Yesterday, 53 equities ended on the advancers’ chart and 26 equities finished on the laggards’ table, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
DAAR Communications led the gainers’ group after it surged by 10.00 per cent to sell for N1.87, Berger Paints appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N66.00, Fortis Global Insurance advanced by 10.00 per cent to 22 Kobo, RT Briscoe also jumped by 10.00 per cent to N10.45, and First Holdco improved by 9.92 per cent to N48.75.
Conversely, Red Star Express led the losers’ gang after it went down by 9.97 per cent to N17.15, Deap Capital also fell by 9.97 per cent to N6.86, Union Homes REIT slipped by 9.95 per cent to N69.25, McNichols dipped by 9.93 per cent to N6.53, and eTranzact lost 9.89 per cent to trade at N16.85.
At the midweek’s session, traders transacted 694.8 million shares worth N20.6 billion in 42,095 deals compared with the 736.4 million shares valued at N24.7 billion traded in 46,026 deals a day earlier, showing a shortfall in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 5.65 per cent, 16.60 per cent, and 8.54 per cent, respectively.
Chams ended the day as the busiest stock after trading 57.4 million units worth N256.3 million, Universal Insurance transacted 56.2 million units valued at N88.8 million, First Holdco exchanged 35.3 million units for N1.7 billion, Deap Capital traded 26.8 million units valued at N187.0 million, and Wema Bank sold 26.7 million units worth N674.6 million.
Economy
Oil Prices Climb 3% on US-Iran Talk Jitters
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices surged about 3 per cent on Wednesday after it was reported that planned talks between the United States and Iran on Friday could collapse.
Brent futures grew by $2.13 or 3.16 per cent to $69.46 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained $1.93 or 3.05 per cent to trade at $65.14 per barrel.
The US and Iran had agreed to meet on Friday in Istanbul, with other Middle Eastern countries participating as observers.
However, the Iranians said on Tuesday that they wanted to move the talks to Oman and hold them in a bilateral format, to ensure that they focused only on nuclear issues and not other matters like missiles that are priorities for the US and countries in the region.
US officials were at first open to the request to change the location but then rejected it.
Later, the talks scheduled for Friday were back on, after several Middle Eastern leaders urgently lobbied the Trump administration on Wednesday afternoon not to follow through on threats to walk away.
The talks will be held in Muscat, the capital of Oman, on Friday.
The tensions between the US and Iran and heightened fears of potential disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply passes through.
Members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait.
Recall that the US military on Tuesday shot down an Iranian drone that aggressively approached a US aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. Separately, a group of Iranian gunboats approached a US-flagged tanker north of Oman.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude stocks fell last week as a winter storm gripped large swaths of the country.
US crude oil inventories fell by 3.5 million barrels to 420.3 million barrels last week, as oil output slid to the lowest level since November 2024, the EIA said.
The EIA’s data release follows figures by the American Petroleum Institute (API) that were released a day earlier, which suggested that crude oil inventories fell by a colossal 11.1 million barrels.
Economy
Dangote Refinery Denies Importing Petrol, Diesel into Nigeria
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has described reports making the rounds that it was importing finished petroleum products like premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, diesel, and others into Nigeria as false and misleading.
In a chat with newsmen on Wednesday, the company clarified that what it brought into the country were merely intermediate or semi‑processed materials, which it emphasized is a standard practice within the global refining industry.
Intermediate materials—such as naphtha, straight‑run gas oil, vacuum gas oil (VGO), reformate, alkylate and isomerate—serve as feedstock for additional refining into finished fuels like petrol and diesel, as well as petrochemicals.
The chief executive of the facility, Mr David Bird, told journalists in Lagos that as a state‑of‑the‑art and large‑scale merchant refinery, DPRP refines crude oil and processes intermediate feedstocks into premium petroleum products and petrochemicals that meet the highest international standards, noting that this practice does not amount to importing finished petroleum products.
Mr Bird highlighted that Dangote Refinery operates using a European and Asian merchant refinery model, which integrates advanced refining, blending and trading systems designed to meet modern quality and environmental benchmarks.
“DPRP produces high‑quality fuels aligned with international environmental and health standards. Our gasoline is lead‑free and MMT‑free with 50 parts per million sulphur, while our diesel meets ultra‑low sulphur specifications. These standards help reduce emissions, protect engines, and safeguard public health,” the chief executive stated.
Mr Bird reaffirmed that the Dangote Refinery supplies only fully refined, market‑ready products, adding that semi‑finished fuels are unsuitable for vehicles and are therefore not released into the Nigerian market. Samples of both intermediate feedstocks and fully refined products were displayed to journalists during the briefing.
He further noted that the refinery was established to end years of exposure to substandard fuel in Nigeria by providing products that meet stringent global standards, adding that DPRP’s products are now exported to international markets, highlighting their quality and competitiveness.
The refinery chief stressed the company’s commitment to transparency in its operations and engagements with regulators, urging the media to help properly educate the public on the clear distinction between intermediate products and finished fuel.
“It is unfortunate that some individuals are deliberately spreading misleading narratives about a refinery that has transformed Nigeria and the West African region from a dumping ground for substandard fuels into a hub for high‑quality products,” he said, adding that the refinery’s flexible design allows it to process a diverse mix of crude oils and intermediate feedstocks into premium finished fuels.
Mr Bird assured Nigerians of sustained product availability, noting that the refinery has contributed significantly to easing fuel scarcity, stabilising the naira, and reducing pressure on foreign exchange.
On his part, the Chief Brand and Communications Officer of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Anthony Chiejina, urged journalists to be precise in their choice of terminology, warning that inaccurate reporting could misinform the public and create unnecessary panic.
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