By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria is considering reforms to its crude allocation and pricing framework to ease feedstock supply constraints facing local refiners, including the 700,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery, according to the Crude Oil Refinery-owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN).

The proposed reforms are expected to be discussed this week as the Nigerian Upstream Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reviews the implementation of the domestic crude supply obligation, which requires oil producers to supply Nigerian refineries before exporting crude.

According to CORAN spokesperson, Mr Eche Idoko, one proposal would allow producers within an international oil company’s network to deliver crude directly to nearby refineries, with the volumes reconciled later at the terminal.

Mr Idoko said the arrangement would reduce reliance on trunklines and bring crude closer to refiners, potentially lowering logistics costs and improving supply efficiency.

Another proposal would allow refiners that lift crude directly from production facilities to receive a discount reflecting freight and handling costs incorporated into Brent-linked pricing but not actually incurred by the buyers.

“This could be a win-win for both the producers and refiners,” Mr Idoko said, as per Reuters.

The proposed changes come amid concerns over the cost and availability of domestic crude for Nigerian refiners. Dangote Refinery has previously said Nigeria’s pricing structure adds about $3 to $4 per barrel to its feedstock costs because crude purchases are routed through producers’ trading arms.

Analysts have identified pricing, rather than physical crude availability, as the main constraint affecting domestic crude transactions.

The reforms could help improve operations at the Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest, which has at times faced constraints in securing sufficient crude supplies locally.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) released on Monday showed that producers’ compliance with the domestic crude supply framework increased to more than 90 per cent, from below 43 per cent in the previous quarter.

The regulator said the figure measures actual crude deliveries against volumes allocated by the commission, rather than the proportion of refinery demand that has been met.

Under the framework, producers are required to offer allocated crude volumes to local refineries, with transactions conducted on a willing-buyer, willing-seller basis.

Markets reward opportunity, but they also punish poor preparation. A trader can have a strong market view and still lose money simply because the position was too large, leverage was excessive, or there was no clear plan for what to do when the market moved in the opposite direction.

This becomes especially important when trading leveraged instruments such as forex and CFDs. Before opening an account, traders should understand not only the markets they intend to trade but also the conditions offered by different providers. Independent comparison resources such as IamForexTrader Top can be useful for reviewing CFD broker options, trading conditions and available platforms before moving on to the equally important question: how much risk should be taken on each trade?

That is where trading risk management begins.

Why Risk Management Matters More Than Predicting Every Trade

New traders often spend most of their time looking for better entry signals. They study charts, indicators, economic news and market forecasts, hoping to increase the percentage of trades that finish profitably.

But even a good trading strategy can fail when risk is poorly controlled.

Trading is fundamentally a game of uncertain outcomes. No technical pattern, analyst forecast or economic indicator can guarantee where a market will move next. Risk management accepts that uncertainty instead of trying to eliminate it.

Good risk management is not about avoiding every loss. It is about making sure one bad decision does not become an account-ending event.

The objective is therefore not to make every trade profitable. It is to keep individual losses manageable enough that the trader can continue operating when a strategy inevitably experiences an unfavorable period.

The Core Elements of Trading Risk Management

A practical risk framework does not need to be complicated. Most of it comes down to controlling a few variables before entering a position.

These elements are closely connected. Changing one can significantly change the overall risk of a trade.

Start With Position Size, Not the Profit Target

One of the most useful changes a trader can make is to stop asking, “How much can I make from this trade?” and start asking, “How much could I lose if I am wrong?”

Imagine a hypothetical trading account with $5,000. Suppose the trader has decided, as part of a personal risk plan, that the maximum acceptable loss on a particular trade is $50.

That $50 becomes the starting point.

The trader can then consider:

• where the trade idea would logically be invalidated;
• how far that level is from the planned entry;
• what position size corresponds to that distance;
• whether market volatility makes the trade reasonable;
• and whether other open positions increase total exposure.

The key idea is simple: position size should adapt to the risk of the trade rather than the trader forcing every trade into the same position size.

A wider stop may require a smaller position. A narrower stop may allow a larger position while keeping the planned monetary risk similar.

Understand What Leverage Actually Changes

Leverage is one of the main reasons risk management is especially important in forex and CFD trading.

It allows traders to control market exposure that is larger than the cash committed to the position. This can make capital more efficient, but it also means relatively small market movements can produce disproportionately large changes in account equity.

The availability of high leverage should therefore not be confused with the amount of leverage a trader needs to use.

For example, a trading platform may technically provide enough margin to open a much larger position. That does not automatically make the position appropriate.

A useful principle is:

Available buying power is a technical limit. Risk tolerance should determine the actual position size.

This distinction becomes particularly important during periods of unusual volatility, when prices can move faster than under normal market conditions.

Build the Trade Before Clicking Buy or Sell

A structured trader should be able to describe the trade before entering it.

A basic pre-trade plan may include:

1. Entry: What price or market condition triggers the trade?
2. Invalidation: At what point is the original idea no longer valid?
3. Position size: How much market exposure fits the predefined risk?
4. Exit: Where will losses be limited?
5. Target: Where could profits reasonably be taken?
6. Event risk: Is important economic or corporate news approaching?
7. Portfolio exposure: Does this position duplicate risk already taken elsewhere?

Writing these points down can also reduce impulsive decisions.

Without a predefined plan, traders are more likely to make decisions while a position is already moving rapidly — exactly when emotions tend to have the greatest influence.

Do Not Ignore Correlated Positions

Risk is not always obvious when looking at trades individually.

Suppose a trader opens several positions that appear to be different. One involves a currency pair, another an equity index and another a commodity. On the screen, they are three separate trades.

Economically, however, they may all depend on the same broader market theme.

If all three positions benefit from the same direction in the US dollar, interest-rate expectations or global investor sentiment, the trader may have created one large concentrated bet without realizing it.

This is why portfolio-level exposure matters.

Before adding another trade, ask:

• Does this position increase an exposure I already have?
• Would the same economic event negatively affect several positions?
• Am I diversified, or have I simply expressed one idea through several instruments?

Risk management works at both the trade level and the portfolio level.

Volatility Changes the Meaning of Risk

A strategy that behaves comfortably during quiet market conditions may become much harder to manage during major economic announcements, unexpected political developments or sudden changes in market liquidity.

The same position size can therefore represent different practical levels of risk at different times.

When volatility rises, price movements often become larger and faster. Traders may need to reconsider whether their normal position size, stop distance or trading frequency still makes sense.

This is another reason rigid trading habits can be dangerous. Risk controls should reflect current market conditions rather than being applied mechanically.

The Risk/Reward Ratio Is Useful — But Not Enough

Risk/reward analysis compares the potential amount lost if a trade fails with the potential gain if it succeeds.

Consider two hypothetical trades:

At first glance, Trade C appears most attractive.

But this does not automatically make it the best trade. The probability of reaching the profit target also matters.

A strategy targeting three units of profit for every unit of risk may sound excellent, but not if the target is reached only very rarely. Conversely, a strategy with smaller targets may still work if its successful trades occur frequently enough.

Risk/reward should therefore be evaluated together with the historical behavior and logic of the trading strategy.

Keep a Trading Journal

One of the simplest risk-management tools requires no sophisticated software at all.

Record each trade.

Useful information includes:

• instrument;
• date and time;
• entry and exit;
• position size;
• planned risk;
• reason for entering;
• result;
• whether the original rules were followed;
• and any emotional or impulsive decisions.

After dozens of trades, patterns often become easier to identify.

For example, a trader might discover that most losses come from trades entered immediately after another loss, from positions opened during major news events, or from increasing size after several winning trades.

Without records, these patterns can remain invisible.

Watch for the Psychological Side of Risk

Risk management is usually discussed as mathematics, but psychology is equally important.

A trader may have perfectly reasonable rules and still abandon them under pressure.

Common examples include:

• increasing position size to recover a previous loss;
• refusing to close a losing position;
• moving a stop-loss because the trader “still believes” in the trade;
• taking unnecessary trades because the market feels exciting;
• becoming overconfident after several wins;
• or abandoning a strategy after a small number of losses.

The solution is not to eliminate emotion. That is unrealistic.

Instead, traders can reduce the number of decisions that must be made under emotional pressure. Position size, invalidation level and maximum acceptable risk can all be determined before the trade begins.

Common Trading Risk Management Mistakes

Several mistakes appear repeatedly among inexperienced market participants.

1. Taking Larger Positions After Losses

Trying to recover money quickly can turn one manageable loss into a sequence of increasingly risky trades.

2. Using Maximum Available Leverage

A broker’s maximum permitted leverage is not a recommendation for how much exposure should be used.

3. Entering Without an Exit Plan

A trader who knows where to enter but has no clear point for admitting the idea was wrong has only half a strategy.

4. Moving Risk Limits During the Trade

Changing a stop simply because price is approaching it can dramatically increase the loss originally accepted.

5. Focusing Only on Individual Trades

Several seemingly small positions can create substantial combined exposure when they react to the same market factors.

6. Ignoring Trading Costs

Spreads, commissions and overnight financing can affect the economics of a strategy, particularly when trades are frequent or held for longer periods.

A Simple Pre-Trade Risk Checklist

Before placing a trade, a trader should be able to answer these questions:

• Why am I entering this position?
• Where is my analysis proven wrong?
• What is the maximum planned loss?
• Is the position size consistent with that loss?
• What is the potential reward relative to the risk?
• Are there major events that could increase volatility?
• Do I already have similar market exposure?
• Am I following my trading plan or reacting emotionally?

If several answers are unclear, waiting may be more rational than entering immediately.

Risk Management Is a Process, Not a Setting

There is no single risk-management formula that works for every trader, instrument or market environment.

A short-term currency trader faces different conditions from someone holding an index CFD for several days. A highly volatile instrument behaves differently from a relatively stable one. Account size, strategy, trading frequency and individual risk tolerance all influence the appropriate framework.

What remains consistent is the process:

identify the downside, define the exposure, plan the exit and only then consider the potential return.

That order matters.

Final Thoughts

Markets will always contain uncertainty. Traders cannot control economic announcements, price gaps, sudden volatility or whether the next trade becomes a winner.

They can, however, control how much exposure they take.

That is the central purpose of trading risk management.

A disciplined trader does not need to predict every market movement. Instead, the goal is to create a framework in which individual mistakes and losing trades remain manageable. Broker selection, trading costs, position sizing, leverage, diversification and emotional discipline all form part of that framework.

Ultimately, successful risk management is less about finding a clever formula and more about consistently answering one question before every trade:

If this idea is wrong, what happens next?

For traders who can answer that question before entering the market, uncertainty becomes something to manage rather than something to fear.

Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment or financial advice. Leveraged trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for every investor.

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

To unlock about $50 billion in deep offshore investment, President Bola Tinubu has signed the Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Projects Incentives (Tax Remission) Order, 2026, stressing that the aim is “to make Nigeria Africa’s regional hub for deep offshore project execution.”

In a statement personally signed by him on Wednesday, the Nigerian leader disclosed that he approved the executive order to create a clear and predictable framework for the sector.

According to him, the approval has already attracted approximately $10 billion for the Bonga South West project.

He stated that for projects accessing the supplementary incentives, the Order requires activities to be performed in Nigeria, subject to clearly defined exceptions and Nigerian content requirements.

The President noted that this part was included because “I want the work to come home to Nigeria. I want our engineers involved, our fabrication yards working, Nigerian marine and technical service companies securing contracts, and our young people acquiring world-class skills.”

“For me, the real measure of $50 billion will be what Nigerians see from it: good jobs, stronger Nigerian businesses, greater production, more revenue for the Federation and capabilities built here at home. Our natural resources must work harder for our people,” he added.

Mr Tinubu stated that this order is the tenth major policy directive of his administration targeted specifically at the oil and gas sector.

“We have been deliberate about removing the constraints holding back investment, production and value creation.

“For too long, some of our biggest offshore opportunities have remained stalled. We cannot afford to leave that opportunity beneath our waters for another decade. Capital moves, countries compete for it, and investors committing billions of dollars over many years need certainty,” he disclosed.

According to him, “We are providing that certainty, with a clear window for existing deep offshore leases to reach Final Investment Decision by 31 December 2029 and qualify for the full standard incentive.”