Economy
Nigeria’s Growth Prospects Attractive Despite Dollar Scarcity—Moody’s

By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A latest report by global ratings firm, Moody’s, has stressed that while subdued US dollar supply in the context of prolonged lower oil prices remains a key challenge for corporates in Nigeria, especially those companies constrained by foreign exchange restrictions on certain imports, growth prospects over the next three years are attractive.
This was revealed in a report published Wednesday on Moody’s website titled ‘Corporates — Nigeria: US Dollar Scarcity Remains Key Challenge to Improvement in the Corporate Sector’ and it is available on www.moodys.com.
Moody’s subscribers can access this report via the link at the end of this press release. The report is an update to the markets and does not constitute a rating action.
“Nigeria is still undergoing a severe economic realignment to adjust to lower oil prices and the knock-on effect on its US dollar oil exports, which have led to reduced US dollar supply and lower GDP growth,” said Aurélien Mali, a Moody’s Vice President and local market analyst for the Government of Nigeria.
“The naira’s depreciation by nearly 60% in June partially cleared accumulated US dollar demand and stabilised foreign currency reserves. However, access to US dollars through official channels remains challenging for some companies.” said Douglas Rowlings, a Moody’s Assistant Vice President and the report’s co-author.
Foreign capital inflows into Nigeria are unlikely to rebound strongly as the existence of a parallel market acts as a deterrent. Investors are hesitant to invest capital into Nigeria as long as there is uncertainty around the propensity for a further devaluation of the naira versus the US dollar.
Moody’s expects foreign investment inflows to continue to be constrained until the parallel market Naira per US dollar exchange rate moves closer to the official exchange rate.
The supply of US dollars will improve over time as real growth rates pick up, which will be supported by investment by multinational corporates wishing to further strengthen their domestic position in Nigeria or establish a presence in the country. This, in turn, should be underpinned by improving GDP growth.
The foreign exchange limitation continues to pose challenges for corporates’ day-to-day operations, capital expenditure (capex) and financing activities.
Corporates servicing US dollar debt commitments will continue to have priority access to US dollars but will need to issue requests at least three months in advance to be assured of requisite availability, while corporates requiring US dollars for their purposes, such as capex outside Nigeria, will continue to face difficulties in obtaining sufficient US dollars.
Another source of US dollars through a rebound in oil production could support the reserves in the future, but it is hypothetical at this stage. If such a development were to occur at the current exchange rate, it could balance supply and demand for US dollars in Nigeria.
This, in turn, would lead to the eclipsing of the parallel market, which would encourage net portfolio inflows and should ensure that the official US dollar supply meets the total demand from Nigeria’s economy.
Looking ahead, growth prospects remain attractive for corporates over the next three years.
Although Moody’s expects Nigerian consumers’ purchasing power to remain under pressure over the next 18 months, both domestic and foreign investment is expected to take advantage of Nigeria’s compelling economic fundamentals and are likely to rebound once the economy has fully stabilised.
Nigeria remains the largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa on a purchasing power parity basis, offering a sizeable market for corporates. A growing middle class – both in percentage and absolute terms – and increasing consumer wealth levels will continue to support higher levels of discretionary income expenditure.
The report is available to Moody’s subscribers at http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1044666
Economy
Brent Falls Below $72 as Hormuz Shipping Reassures Oil Markets
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude prices fell by more than 3 per cent on Friday as oil tankers kept exiting the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply concerns the day after a cargo vessel was hit near Oman.
Brent crude futures settled at $71.99 a barrel, down $3.27 or 4.34 per cent, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) finished at $69.23 a barrel, down $2.69 or 3.74 per cent. Week-on-week, the Brent benchmark fell 10.86 per cent while the US WTI fell 9.62 per cent.
Prior to the agreement on a 60-day ceasefire, markets worried supplies would fall short of demand, but those fears seem to be passing.
Crude transits through the Strait of Hormuz rose to the highest weekly tally since the onset of the US-Iran conflict this week, with more than 16 million barrels passing through the waterway this Wednesday-Thursday, raising hopes of a full, gradual reopening.
This happened despite Iran firing at a Taiwanese cargo ship, raising fears that Hormuz transit could be choked off again. Iran’s IRG fired several drones at the Taiwan-owned Ever Lovely cargo ship, reportedly attempting to cross the Hormuz through “unauthorised routes,” damaging the vessel’s bridge some 7 miles off the Omani coast on Thursday.
The attack on the ship prompted the United Nations’ shipping agency to pause its voluntary evacuation scheme to enable hundreds of stranded ships and thousands of seafarers to sail out of the Gulf through the strait.
On Friday, Iran reasserted its right to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and warned Gulf states against siding with the US.
Many ships have been switching on their public automatic identification system (AIS) tracking transponders, but some may have gone undetected due in part to major disruption of AIS signals, as well as ships not showing their movements through the strait. That makes it difficult to estimate the complete volume of shipments.
Chinese crude oil imports this month are on course to book an even weaker month than May, according to Kpler data, which sees the daily average at just 6.4 million barrels.
According to media reports, Iraq has considered leaving the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) if the oil group does not allow it to significantly increase its crude production quotas, currently at 4.378 million barrels per day, a claim which the Iraqi Oil Ministry subsequently denied and called ‘premature’.
Economy
Odu’a Investment Eyes N1trn Asset Base by 2030, Posts N23.58bn Pre-Tax Profit
By Adedapo Adesanya
Odu’a Investment Company Limited has unveiled an ambitious plan to grow its asset base to N1 trillion by 2030, following a record financial performance that saw the conglomerate post a N23.58 billion Profit Before Tax (PBT) for the 2025 financial year.
The target was announced at the company’s 44th Annual General Meeting (AGM), held on Friday at the newly redeveloped Premier Hotel in Ibadan, where shareholders, representatives of the six South-West states and other stakeholders also witnessed the conclusion of the four-year tenure of the chairman, Mr Bimbo Ashiru.
Presenting the 2025 financial results, Mr Ashiru said the group had been strategically repositioned despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, laying a solid foundation for its long-term growth ambitions.
According to the results, operating revenue increased by 78 per cent to N20.22 billion from N11.34 billion recorded in 2024, while profit before tax surged by 410 per cent to N23.58 billion from N4.62 billion in the previous year.
The impressive earnings were largely driven by N18.81 billion in fair value gains on investment properties and strong gains from the bullish performance of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), where it trades its stock.
Mr Ashiru described the year as one of significant strategic milestones that have permanently repositioned the investment group.
Among the highlights was the completion of the extensive redevelopment of the historic Premier Hotel, Ibadan, which was commissioned on the eve of the AGM and is expected to commence full operations in the fourth quarter of 2026.
The organisation also marked the 60th anniversary of Cocoa House in July 2025, reinforcing its commitment to preserving iconic assets while unlocking greater commercial value.
In another milestone, Agusto & Co. upgraded Odu’a Investment’s credit rating from A+ to Aa- with a stable outlook, reflecting the company’s improved financial discipline and treasury management.
Speaking at the AGM, the Managing Director, Mr Abdulrahman Yinusa, disclosed that the company has commenced the process of obtaining its first international credit rating from a leading global rating agency, adding that the move would enhance access to international debt capital markets and attract foreign direct investment as part of the group’s long-term growth strategy.
The company also presented its first fully consolidated financial statements, providing shareholders with a comprehensive view of the financial position of the holding company and all its subsidiaries.
The AGM also marked a leadership transition as Mr Ashiru completed his four-year tenure as Group Chairman.
In his valedictory address, he reflected on the transformation achieved between 2022 and 2026, noting that Odu’a Investment had evolved from being “asset rich, cash poor” into a strategy-driven organisation that is both asset and cash-rich.
He thanked the governors of the six South-West states, members of the Board, past and present Group Managing Directors, subsidiary boards and management, and staff for their support throughout his tenure.
Although stepping down as chairman, Mr Ashiru will remain on the board as a director until 2028, providing continuity as the group pursues its vision of building a N1 trillion asset portfolio by 2030.
Economy
Nigeria Accesses $1.5bn from UAE Lender’s $5bn Swap Deal
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria has received the first tranche of its $5 billion derivatives financing arrangement with the First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), the United Arab Emirates’ largest lender.
According to a Bloomberg report published on Friday, the federal government drew about $1.5 billion over the past two weeks through a Total Return Swap (TRS) transaction with the lender.
The report stated that Nigeria will provide naira-denominated securities valued at 133.3 per cent of the loan amount as collateral for the transaction, while international financial institutions continue to express concerns about the risks associated with such derivative-based financing structures.
The financing is expected to support the government’s debt management strategy by replacing more expensive borrowings while helping finance the country’s fiscal deficit.
The first tranche is priced at 395 basis points above the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), rising to SOFR plus 400 basis points thereafter.
The transaction further expands Nigeria’s financial relationship with First Abu Dhabi Bank, which had earlier provided about $1.2 billion to support the construction of a section of the ongoing Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway.
The swap deal has come with much scrutiny from critics and international organisations. Recall that the International Monetary Fund (IMF), after a consultation visit, warned Nigeria against the deal, noting that such transactions are often opaque and complex.
“Our view is that the transactions in these types of structures carry risks. Usually they are opaque, so the terms are not always very transparent when we reviewed these instruments across countries,” according to the IMF’s mission chief in Nigeria, Mr Christian Ebeke.
Mr Ebeke said Nigeria could instead issue eurobonds to finance its deficits or other means to raise funding, including on concessional terms.
The Senate in April gave its approval to the agreement put forward by President Bola Tinubu, who said his administration intends to use proceeds from the total return swap to refinance expensive debt and pay for infrastructure.
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