Tinubu’s Policy Reforms Will Lead to Economic Growth—Morgan Stanley
By Adedapo Adesanya
An American investment management services company, Morgan Stanley, has lauded some of the recent policy reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu, saying they could create a potential uptick in economic growth.
In its recent advisory report titled Tales From the Emerging World: Nigeria’s New Dawn? seen by Business Post, the firm drew several policies distinction between the two-month-old administration of President Tinubu and the eight years of his predecessor, Mr Muhammadu Buhari.
“Nigeria suffered eight years of economic stagnation under the administration of the previous president, Muhammadu Buhari, a former general who had promised to tackle corruption,” but added that Mr Tinubu’s recent moves could reposition Africa’s biggest economy on track for recovery.
It chastised Mr Buhari’s failure to remove fuel subsidies and the implementation of foreign currency controls hobbled the private sector, while a lack of economic growth exacerbated the level of extreme poverty.
“Today, some 71 million people live below $1.90 a day, a significant jump from 61 million in 2016. By contrast, most countries have reduced their poverty levels significantly – India saw a decline from 74 million people in poverty to 44 million.
“During Buhari’s tenure, the average Nigerian saw their annual income shrink by nearly one-third, from $3,222 to $2,200, one of the steepest declines recorded by any country over that time span, while Kenyans saw their incomes rise by more than 40%,” the note read.
It agreed that while Mr Tinubu’s removal of fuel subsidies has led to higher fuel prices, the advisory company warned that cheap petrol prices were detrimental to the economy and that scrapping the regime that cost the country $10 billion (N4.3 trillion) alone last year was the surest bet.
“The removal of subsidies is likely to prove painful in the near term, especially as it will likely erode consumer confidence, send inflation higher, and hurt consumption,” the report said.
“We believe Tinubu’s actions could potentially mark a turning point and deliver medium-term growth, which will spur the emergence of a mass consumer market in one of the fastest growing populations in the world.”
It also lauded the reunification of the exchange rate and the removal of the CBN Governor, Mr Godwin Emefiele, who it called the architect of the multiple exchange rates.
“The new administration’s challenge is to devise sound policies to unleash the potential of Nigeria’s human capital, perhaps its greatest asset. The reforms are a positive step, but more needs to be done to ensure momentum is not lost.
“Tinubu and his team of technocrats have a unique opportunity to free up the economy and attract foreign investors looking for sustained growth,” it concluded.
