Feature/OPED
2019 Presidential Poll: Is Atiku’s Defeat Testament That Power is Transient?
By Omoshola Deji
Power is transient. Owning it doesn’t mean it’ll always be yours. Aiming for it doesn’t mean you’ll get it.
Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s onetime second citizen and candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), again failed to secure the first spot – on his fourth attempt. His first shot at the top job was on the platform of the Social Democratic Party in 1992. He came third in the presidential primaries, behind Babagana Kingibe and Moshood Abiola. Atiku, whose regular loss at the polls has earned him the title ‘veteran contestant’ and ‘serial loser’ was defeated by incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2019 presidential election. The loss dashed Atiku’s hopes of realizing his 27 year ambition.
Against the predictions of notables like Dele Momodu and prominent institutions such as Williams and Associates, and The Economist, the writer foretold Atiku’s defeat and it came to pass. Buhari garnered 15,191,847 votes, to conquer Atiku who scored 11,262,978 votes. Why did Atiku lose?
Atiku has not been arraigned or convicted by any court, but the weighty corruption allegations against him has destroyed his reputation and diminished peoples trust in him. The corruption burden largely made him lose the election, having contested against Buhari who is widely adjudged honest. Atiku’s vow to privatize the inefficient Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) was largely construed as a ploy to enrich cronies, like he allegedly did when he, as Vice President, supervised the privatization of national assets. Atiku’s outburst made the moguls profiting from NNPC’s ineptness work hard for Buhari’s reelection.
Atiku’s focal campaign promise of restructuring the country was widely interpreted as an anti-North agenda by his people. Although the policy amplified his popularity in the less voting populated regions in the South, it incredibly diminished his popularity in the major voting populated North. Atiku also failed to win the minds of voters during campaign. He underutilized the opportunity of using the rallies to draw people’s attention to Buhari’s shortcomings and how he would address them, if elected. Atiku’s campaign was not informative and revealing as expected from an opposition candidate. The PDP stalwarts preoccupied themselves with calumny, ideas bereft, non-issues based campaigns, exchanging insults with Buhari’s men.
Atiku is popular, but his popularity and acceptance is incomparable to that of Buhari. The PDP’s unimpressive performance in the North handed Buhari and APC an easy win. Atiku lost his polling unit and majority of the key northern states by a wide margin. One thing’s for certain, the election must have enlightened Atiku that the mammoth crowd at the rallies are not votaries; they are fun-seekers any candidate desirous of electoral victory must not rely on.
Power is a transient, temporary phenomenon. Atiku, a once very powerful time is now reduced. The ex-Vice President was sometimes ago the ‘commandant’ of the northern political elites. He called the shot. The power blocs sung his song and danced to his beat. He was so powerful to the extent that he almost dethroned his former boss, ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo. It is broadly whispered that Obasanjo allegedly kowtow before Atiku allowed the northern power blocs support their reelection as president and vice in 2003. Today, most of the power blocs under Atiku’s control then have switched allegiance to Buhari. They worked against Atiku, fervidly criticized him, and made him lose the 2019 presidential election.
Most of the notables that worked against Atiku were either discovered or groomed during the Obasanjo-Atiku presidency. Garba Shehu, the Senior Special Assistant, Media and Publicity to Buhari was Atiku’s former media adviser. He fed from Atiku’s purse for over a decade. Shehu was one of the trusted aides Atiku donated to Buhari’s team when the latter won the APC presidential ticket in 2015. Before then, Shehu’s vivaciousness to the emergence of an Atiku presidency had no equal. The reverse is the case now. The same voice Shehu praise Atiku with is the one he is using to demean him now.
During the presidential election campaign, Shehu severally and unapologetically disparaged Atiku in order to convince the Aso Rock cabal that he is not a mole. Shehu’s loyalty shift and pivotal role in the destruction of the Atiku project he once lived for is a lesson to everyone that: like life, human loyalty is temporal and everyone has a price.
Shehu is not the only one. The former Governor of Lagos State and national leader of the APC, Bola Tinubu was once in Atiku’s camp. Both have a time-honored relationship. The amity between them made Atiku work against the interest of his party, the PDP, in 2003, despite being the Vice President at the time. He softened pedals to ensure the political machineries that enthroned PDP in the Southwest states did not capture Lagos. Both men later teamed up to strategize on how to rule Nigeria in 2007. Tinubu allowed Atiku contest for President on the platform of the defunct Action Congress, a party he singly controlled.
The former Lagos Governor apparently backed Atiku with the hope that the latter would hand over power to him after his tenure, but he lost the election. Tinubu still has his eyes on the nation’s top job. His political enmity with Atiku rests on the calculation that the APC is his shortest and strongest link to being President.
Tinubu has a lot to learn from Atiku. The first of such lesson is: power is transient. The political godsons Tinubu has today may also turn against him tomorrow and hinder him from getting his most desired. The powers he has today, he will in due time have them no more. His boys would either switch allegiance or oust him. No man has reigned forever; Tinubu’s political dynasty would sooner or later be ruined by one of his disciples. The handwriting on the wall is clear, but has concealed meaning like that of Daniel 5:25. Only the gifted can see and understand it.
President Buhari’s Ministers of Labour and Agriculture, Chris Ngige and Audu Ogbeh, were once Atiku’s faithful. They teamed up to frustrate Obasanjo’s third term agenda. During difficult times, Atiku supported Ogbeh, particularly when Obasanjo allegedly forced him to resign as the PDP National Chairman. But in the just concluded election, Ogbeh worked against Atiku in favor of his principal, Buhari. The pioneer Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Nuhu Ribadu, is also one of Atiku’s erstwhile beneficiaries that worked against his win. Atiku championed Ribadu’s appointment as EFCC Chairman, a position that ushered him into limelight.
The former FCT Minister and incumbent governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, was once Atiku’s henchman. Atiku was instrumental to his appointment and political development. He secured him an appointment as the Director General of the Bureau of Public Enterprises and later a Minister. El-Rufai likes to prove his loyalty through show offs. He would, at the time, do anything for Atiku. He hurriedly kneels to greet him at every given opportunity. No one thought the day would come when El-Rufai would work against Atiku.
But lo and behold, Atiku lost El-Rufai’s loyalty when he needed it most. Things took a turn for the worse when Atiku’s vice presidential tenure ended and he lost his presidential bid in 2007. El-Rufai faithfulness would have provided Atiku the much needed succumb when he fell on hard times and was struggling for political survival. But El-rufai was nowhere to be found; he had made new contacts and moved on. He is today’s Atiku prominent critic. His unparalleled dedication to Buhari’s reelection made Atiku lose the presidential poll in Kaduna State.
Don’t be deceived by people’s flattery and worship; they may be the first to throw you stones when you fall on hard times. Once you lose that success, beauty, money, fame or power that is attracting people to you, almost everyone will desert and disappoint you when it matters most. They will quickly find a replacement or pally with whoever is occupying your position. They would forget about you before sunset! You would not only be forgotten, most of the people you fed and clothed will vilify you and dine with your enemy. Senate President Bukola Saraki would be the best person to speak on this in a few months. That aside, how many beneficiaries of Abiola’s kind heartedness are standing by his family now?
Take a quiet time and look inwards, the power you have may be that which is commanding people’s loyalty. Lose the power, go broke, or contract a deadly disease and you’ll see peoples natural behavior. If Atiku had won the APC ticket and emerged president in 2015, the likes of Shehu and El-Rufai would have remained in his team, screaming they love him more than God. Do these persons love Buhari or they just love his power? Where were they when Buhari was losing election serially? Would those shouting ‘sai baba’ now stand by him when the chips are down? One could only hope that Buhari is not only celebrating his victory, but preparing to take Nigeria to the next level, and not drowning in the praise singings of his supporters and handlers.
It must not be left unsaid that Atiku himself is unrighteous. His disloyalty made him fall out with his former boss, ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo. Buhari is his self-inflicted, well deserved nemesis. Atiku immensely sponsored the campaign of the Buhari he’s struggling to defeat now in 2015. His insatiable thirst for power made him play a lead role in pulling PDP down 2015, despite being one of her greatest beneficiaries. He should be grateful that the party was kind enough to offer him her presidential ticket, which many people thinks he doesn’t deserve. He is a serial defector that only stays with any party that is ready to offer him ticket. His desperation for power is dwindling his electoral value and he may never achieve his dream of becoming Nigeria’s President.
While going ahead to challenge his lose at the tribunal, someone should remind Atiku that the seeming politically motivated suspension of Chief Justice Walter Onnoghen is not for nothing. Buhari too should be reminded that power is transient. That he has it today doesn’t mean it’s his forever. He should be conscious of his place in history and treat others the way he would like to be treated when power change hands.
Omoshola Deji is a political and public affairs analyst. He wrote in via [email protected]
By Blaise Udunze
When the federal government approved the write-off of about $1.42 billion and N5.57 trillion in legacy debts owed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) to the Federation Account, it was rightly described as a landmark decision. After years of disputes, reconciliations, and contested figures, Nigeria’s most important revenue institution was, at least on paper, given a cleaner slate.
The approval, contained in a report prepared by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and presented at the last year November meeting of the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), effectively wiped out 96 percent of NNPC’s dollar-denominated obligations and 88 percent of its naira liabilities accumulated up to December 31, 2024. It resolved long-standing balances arising from crude oil liftings, joint venture royalties, production-sharing contracts, and related arrangements.
Judging it critically, the decision carries both promise and peril, but can be viewed from the perspective of a country desperate to restore confidence in public finance management. It offers an opportunity to reset relationships, clean up accounting records, and move forward under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). Yet, it also exposes deep structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s oil revenue governance, weaknesses that, if left unaddressed, could turn today’s debt relief into tomorrow’s fiscal regret.
Context matters. The debt write-off comes not during a period of revenue abundance, but at a time when Nigeria’s upstream revenue performance is under severe strain. According to the same NUPRC document, the commission missed its approved monthly revenue target for November 2025 by N544.76 billion, collecting only N660.04 billion against a projected N1.204 trillion.
Royalty receipts, the backbone of upstream revenue, tell an even starker story. It is alarming that against an approved monthly royalty projection of N1.144 trillion, only N605.26 billion was collected, leaving a shortfall of N538.92 billion. Cumulatively, by the end of November 2025, the revenue gap stood at N5.65 trillion, with royalty collections alone falling short by N5.63 trillion. These figures underscore how fragile Nigeria’s fiscal position remains, even as trillions of naira in historical obligations are being written off.
To be fair, the debts forgiven were not incurred overnight. They are the product of years of disputed remittances, lacking transparent accounting practices, and overlapping institutional roles, particularly under the pre-PIA regime. As petroleum economist Prof. Wumi Iledare has repeatedly observed, the former Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation combined regulatory, commercial, and operational functions, making revenue reconciliation cumbersome and frequently contested.
That legacy continues to haunt the system, as witnessed with the ongoing dispute between NNPC Ltd and Periscope Consulting, the audit firm engaged by the Nigeria Governors’ Forum, over an alleged $42.37 billion under-remittance between 2011 and 2017, which illustrates how unresolved the past remains. Though NNPC insists all revenues were properly accounted for as claimed, Periscope maintains that significant gaps persist, forcing FAAC to mandate yet another reconciliation exercise. This recurring pattern of audits, counterclaims, and stalemates has weakened trust in the federation revenue system and eroded confidence among states that depend on oil proceeds for survival.
Crucially, the debt write-off does not mean NNPC has turned a corner financially. Statutory obligations incurred between January and October 2025 remain on the books, amounting to about $56.8 million and N1.02 trillion. Although part of the dollar component was recovered during the period under review, the accumulation of new liabilities so soon after reconciliation raises uncomfortable questions about whether old habits are being replaced with genuine fiscal discipline.
More troubling still is what NNPC’s own audited financial statements reveal about its internal financial health. Despite recording a profit after tax of N5.4 trillion on revenues of N45.1 trillion in 2024, the company’s inter-company debts ballooned to N30.3 trillion, representing a 70 per cent increase within a single year. This is not debt owed to external creditors but largely obligations between NNPC and its subsidiaries, effectively the company owing itself.
Records show that of 32 subsidiaries, only eight are debt-free, and the rest, particularly the refineries, trading arms, and gas infrastructure units, remain heavily indebted to the parent company. There was a recurring cycle where profitable units subsidise chronically underperforming ones, and accountability steadily erodes because cash that should fund maintenance, expansion, and efficiency improvements is instead trapped in internal receivables.
The refineries offer a stark illustration whereby the Port Harcourt Refining Company alone owed N4.22 trillion in 2024, more than double its 2023 figure, while Kaduna and Warri refineries followed closely, with debts of N2.39 trillion and N2.06 trillion respectively. Despite the repeated failed turnaround maintenance with many years of rehabilitation spending, none have operated sustainably at commercially viable levels. Their continued dependence on financial support from the parent company highlights the cost of postponing difficult restructuring decisions.
And, for this reason, international observers have long warned about these structural weaknesses. One of the critics, the World Bank, has repeatedly flagged NNPC as a major source of revenue leakages. It further noted that the persistent gaps between reported earnings and actual remittances to the Federation Account. Even after the removal of petrol subsidies, the bank observed that NNPC remitted only about 50 per cent of the revenue gains, using the rest to offset past arrears. Such practices, while perhaps defensible in internal cash management terms, undermine fiscal transparency and weaken Nigeria’s macroeconomic credibility.
This is why the central issue is not the debt write-off itself, but what follows it because debt forgiveness is not reform. Without firm safeguards, it risks entrenching the very behaviours that created the problem in the first place. As Prof. Omowumi Iledare has warned, the scale and pace of the inter-company debt build-up represent a governance test rather than a mere accounting anomaly. Allowing subsidiaries to operate indefinitely without settling obligations is incompatible with the idea of a commercially driven national oil company.
The fact remains that if NNPC wants to function as a true commercial holding company under the PIA, it must enforce strict settlement timelines, restructure or divest non-viable subsidiaries, while clearly separating legacy debts from new obligations. With this, it holds subsidiary leadership accountable for cash flow and profitability. Independent, real-time audits and transparent reporting must become routine features of governance, not emergency responses triggered by controversy.
There is also a broader national implication. At a time when Nigerians are being asked to accept higher taxes, reduced subsidies, and fiscal tightening, large-scale debt write-offs without visible accountability risk undermining the legitimacy of the entire revenue system. Citizens cannot be expected to bear heavier burdens while systemic inefficiencies in the country’s most strategic sector persist.
Of a truth, the cancellation of NNPC’s legacy debts could mark a turning point in Nigeria’s fiscal governance, but only if it is not treated as its conclusion but the beginning of reform.
If discipline, transparency, and commercial accountability follow, the decision may yet help reposition NNPC as a profitable, credible, and PIA-compliant institution. If not, today’s clean slate will simply defer the reckoning until the next reconciliation, the next audit dispute, and the next fiscal crisis.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
By Dr Austin Orette
The grandiosity of Nigerians when they discuss events and situations can be very funny. If the leaders use this kind of creativity in proffering solutions, we may be able to solve some of the problems that plague Nigeria perennially.
There seems to be a sublime affectation for new lingos when the system is being set to punish Nigerians. It is a kind of Orwellian speak.
Recently, there was no electricity throughout the country. The usual culprit and government spoke; people came out to tell us the power failure was due to the collapse of the National grid. Does it really matter what is collapsing? This is just an attempt by some government bureaucrats to sound intelligent.
Intelligence is becoming a borrowed commodity from the IMF or World Bank. What does it mean when you tell Nigerians that the national grid collapsed? Is that supposed to be a reassurance, or it is said to give the assurance that they know something about the anemic electricity, and we should get used to the darkness. This is a language that is vague and beckons the consumer to stop complaining. Does that statement mean anything to Nigerians who pay bills and don’t see the electricity they paid for? If they see it, it comes with an irregular voltage that destroys their newly purchased appliances. Just tell or stay quiet like in the past.
Telling us that a grid collapse is a lie. We have no national grid. Do these people know how silly their language sounds? Nigeria produces less than 10,000 megawatts of electricity for a population of 200 million people. How do you permutate this to give constant electricity to 200 million people? It is an insult to call this low output a national grid. What is so national about using a generator to supply electricity to 200 million people? It is simple mathematics. If you calculate this to the minute, it should not surprise you that every Nigerian will receive electricity for the duration of the blink of an eye. They are paying for total darkness, and someone is telling them they have an electricity grid.
If you can call the 10,000-megawatt national grid collapsed, it means you don’t have the mind set to solve the electricity problem in Nigeria.
To put it in perspective is to understand the basic fact that the electrical output of Nigeria is pre-industrial. Without acknowledging this fact, we will never find solutions as every mediocre will come and confuse Nigeria with lingos that make them sound important.
It is very shameful for those in the know to always use grandiose language to obfuscate the real issues.
South Africa with a population of sixty million produces about 200,000 megawatts of electricity daily. Nigeria produces less than 10,000 megawatts. Why South Africa makes it easy to lift the poor from poverty, Nigeria is trying to tax the poor into poverty.
The architects of the new tax plan saw the poor as rich because they could afford a generator.
A non-existent subsidy was removed, and the price of fuel went through the roof. Now the government says they are rich. What will they get in return for this tax extraction? Why do successive Nigerian governments always think the best way to develop Nigeria is to slap the poor into poverty? What are the avenues for upward mobility when youth corps members are suddenly seen as rich taxpayers? Do these people know how difficult it is to start a business in Nigeria?
After all the rigmarole from Abuja to my village, I cannot get a government certificate without a-shake down from government bureaucrats and area boys. The government that is so unfriendly to business wants to tax my non-existing businesses. Are these people in their right state of mind? Why do they think that taxing the poor is their best revenue plan? A plan like this can only come from a group of people who have no inkling of what Nigerians are going through. People can’t eat and the government is asking them to share their meager rations with potbellied people in Abuja.
Teach the people how to fish, then you can share in their harvest. If an individual does what the government is doing to Nigerians, it will be called robbery, and the individual will be in prison. When the government taxes people, there is a reciprocal exchange. What is being done in Nigeria does not represent fair exchange.
Nigerians have never gotten anything good from their government except individual wealth that is doled out in Abuja for the selected few.
The question is, will Nigerians have a good electricity supply? NO. Will they have security of persons and properties? No. Will they have improved health care? NO. Will there be good roads? No. Will they have good schools and good education? No.
Taxation is not good governance. A policy like this should never be rushed without adequate studies. Once again, our legislators have let us down. They have never shown the people the reason they were elected and to be re-elected. They are not playing their roles as the watchdog and representatives of the people. Anyone who voted for this tax bill deserves to lose their positions as Senators and Members of the House of Representatives.
We are not in a military regime anymore. Nigerians must start learning how to exercise their franchise. This taxation issue must be litigated at the ballot box. The members of the National Assembly have shown by their assent that they don’t represent the people.
In a normal democracy, taxation without representation should never be tolerated. They must be voted out of office. We have a responsibility and duty to use our voting power to fight unjust laws. Taxation without representation is unjust. Those voted into power will never respect the citizens until the citizens learn to punish errant politicians by voting them out of office. This responsibility is sacred and must be exercised with diligence.
Dr Austin Orette writes from Houston, Texas
For many Nigerian families, GOtv has become more than a television service. It is part of the daily routine. It is what people unwind with after a long day, what keeps children entertained on quiet weekend mornings, and what brings households together during football matches, movie nights, and festive celebrations. Over the years, GOtv has blended naturally into these everyday moments, shaping the way Nigerians enjoy entertainment at home.
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The beauty of GOtv is its range. Children enjoy their cartoons and animated shows, parents relax with movies and telenovelas, sports lovers stay connected to live games and highlights, and music and lifestyle channels keep the energy lively. Whether it is catching up on the news, finding something light after work, or choosing a family movie for the weekend, GOtv fits naturally into everyday Nigerian life.
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GOtv understands the way Nigerians watch television. Weeknights come with easy to follow entertainment, weekends offer longer movies and marathons, and festive seasons arrive with special programming that brings everyone together. The schedule is practical, familiar, and aligned with the pace of Nigerian homes.
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