Feature/OPED
A Dangerous Concentration of Power: Is CBN’s Fixed Income Securities Takeover a Ticking Bomb for Nigeria’s Economy?
By Blaise Udunze
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to take full control of government securities issuance has been described by some as a bold move toward transparency and market efficiency. Yet, beneath the surface of this reform lies a web of structural dangers that could tighten credit even further, push interest rates higher, escalate exchange-rate instability, trigger regulatory turf wars, and strangulate the private sector, especially small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that already struggle to survive in Nigeria’s high-cost economy.
The policy shift became more pronounced with the rollout of a new Treasury Bills (T-Bills) auction regime, mandating that all bids be submitted through the CBN’s S4 digital interface. This transition officially bypasses the longstanding Primary Dealer Market Maker (PDMM) framework and represents the clearest sign yet that the apex bank is asserting complete control over how government securities are issued, priced, and distributed. In fact, the first major test of this system will occur with the federal government’s planned N700 billion T-Bills issuance scheduled for November 20, 2025 which is an unprecedented rollout that effectively transfers auction power from market intermediaries directly to the CBN.
Analysts say this shift is not merely operational; it is structural. The S4 interface, which has existed since 2014 but never fully deployed as the primary submission platform, now becomes the exclusive gateway for government securities issuance. All bids, whether retail or institutional must be lodged through S4 between 8:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m., with the CBN maintaining full discretion to adjust the offer amount or reject bids it considers inconsistent with market conditions. Settlement will occur within 24 hours.
According to market expert Tajudeen Olayinka, CEO of Wyoming Capital Partners, the policy “is consistent with the CBN’s signal that it would take charge of the primary segment of the fixed-income market where government securities are issued.” Another veteran dealer put it more bluntly: “With S4, no dealer can see what rate others are quoting. All bids now meet at the same window. This dismantles the old advantage PDMMs enjoyed.”
Although transparency is improved by removing dealers’ visibility over competing bids, concerns have intensified over the broader consequences of the CBN monopolizing the government securities market. The danger is that this reform which is unaccompanied by strong institutional coordination between the CBN, the DMO, and the Ministry of Finance could trigger deeper systemic imbalances.
One of the most pressing fears is the crowding-out effect. If the CBN aggressively issues more government securities as part of its liquidity-management operations, banks, already heavily invested in government debt, will divert even more of their portfolios toward these risk-free instruments rather than lending to the real economy.
Nigeria’s top five banks known as the FUGAZ group (First HoldCo, UBA, GTCO, Access Corp, and Zenith Bank) provide compelling evidence of this shift. Their financial statements show a combined N49.152 trillion investment in securities and Treasury Bills as of September 2025, a sharp rise from N42.204 trillion at the end of 2024. In just nine months, they added nearly N7 trillion to these holdings.
Interest income from these investments surged by 33 percent, hitting N4.8 trillion in the first nine months of 2025 compared to N3.6 trillion in the same period of 2024.
– Access Corporation led the pack with N15.25 trillion in securities holdings,
– followed by UBA with N13.59 trillion,
– Zenith at N9.05 trillion,
– First HoldCo with N6.35 trillion, and
– GTCO at N4.91 trillion.
These investments generated robust returns: Access earned N1.3 trillion; Zenith N1.14 trillion; UBA N1.03 trillion; FBN HoldCo N720 billion; and GTCO N570 billion.
For analysts, these numbers expose a structural vulnerability as Nigerian banks are quickly transforming into large-scale government lenders rather than engines of private-sector credit. As Dr. Muktar Mohammed of Lagos Business School explains, “Banks have found refuge in government instruments because they are safe, liquid, and yield high returns in a volatile economy, but this behaviour constrains credit growth to the real sector.”
Lending data confirms this.
– Zenith Bank’s loan-to-deposit ratio slipped from 43 to 40 percent;
– Access Corporation maintained a flat 41.2 percent despite rising deposits;
– UBA’s ratio dropped to 28.2 percent;
– GTCO’s remained stagnant; and only
– First HoldCo showed notable improvement.
This trend is dangerous. Nigeria’s private sector, especially SMEs is already starved of credit. Lending rates hover between 28 percent and 35 percent, making capital unaffordable for most small businesses.
With the CBN taking full control of securities issuance, the likelihood is high that more liquidity will be absorbed through T-Bills and OMO bills, pushing interest rates further upward. The more attractive government securities become, the less incentive banks will have to lend to SMEs. This is how economies slide into cycles of low productivity, high unemployment, and weak domestic investment.
The implications do not end there. Excessive issuance of government securities could also destabilize the exchange rate. When interest rates remain artificially high to attract foreign portfolio investors into T-Bills, Nigeria becomes dependent on “hot money” which turns out to be short-term foreign inflows that exit the economy at the slightest shock. This pattern has historically triggered sharp naira depreciation, panic in the FX markets, and severe liquidity shortages in the banking sector. If the CBN uses this securities-controlled regime to sustain high yields, Nigeria risks attracting unstable capital inflows that will exit rapidly, putting pressure on the naira.
Beyond monetary and credit risks, there is a troubling regulatory dimension. The CBN’s move to migrate fixed-income trading and settlement from the FMDQ Securities Exchange, which is under SEC oversight to its own Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) and S4 platforms has ignited a full-blown turf war between the CBN and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Under the Investments and Securities Act (ISA) 2025, the SEC holds exclusive authority over trading venues. Critics warn that the CBN’s attempt to operate exchange-like infrastructure violates statutory boundaries and risks destabilizing the market.
Dr. Akin Olaniyan, CEO of Charterhouse Limited, described the move as “a potential recipe for dual regulation and confusion,” arguing that it may undermine investor confidence. Similarly, Dr. Walker Ogogo, pioneer Registrar of the Institute of Capital Market Registrars, noted that since the CBN already owns 16 percent of FMDQ, operating parallel infrastructure creates conflicts of interest that send negative signals to foreign investors.
MoneyCentral reports that the migration could trigger a 67 percent drop in FMDQ’s trading volume, weakening a system that has long supported Nigeria’s fixed-income ecosystem.
Veteran banker Victor Ogiemwonyi stated, “the CBN is not an exchange; it should not be involved in issuing, dealing, and settling securities. Conflating these roles creates unnecessary risk.” His concerns are grounded in the principle that market operators must be independent from regulators to prevent conflicts of interest. The CBN’s dual role as both regulator and operator blurs these lines and may set a dangerous precedent.
The real casualties of these structural conflicts will be SMEs and the broader private sector. These enterprises rely on bank credit to fund inventory, acquire machinery, expand operations, and withstand economic shocks. When banks prefer government securities over lending,
– SMEs face higher rates,
– stricter collateral requirements,
– fewer loan products, and shorter tenors.
– Many will be forced to downsize, lay off workers, or close altogether.
In an economy where SMEs account for over 90% of jobs, this contraction would be disastrous.
Another major overarching risk is that:
– The CBN’s consolidation of securities issuance power without corresponding checks from the DMO and Ministry of Finance creates an unbalanced financial architecture where monetary priorities overshadow fiscal realities and private-sector growth.
– Policies crafted in silos rarely produce macroeconomic stability. They produce distortions, uncertainty, and systemic fragility.
Nigeria stands at a critical junction. Securities issuance can be made transparent without centralizing all power in the CBN. Fixed-income markets can be cleaned up without dismantling the institutional balance that preserves confidence. What the country needs is coordination, not consolidation; collaboration, not domination.
If the CBN continues its takeover without robust guardrails, the result may be a financial system where banks stop lending, SMEs continue to collapse, interest rates remain high, the naira stays volatile, and regulatory conflicts scare away both local and foreign investors.
To avoid the dangerous risks ahead, Nigeria must:
- Strengthen collaboration between CBN, DMO, and Ministry of Finance. Debt issuance must reflect both monetary and fiscal realities not just liquidity needs.
- Prioritize long-term bonds over short-term T-Bills. This reduces rollover risk and provides stable funding at lower long-term cost.
- Implement SME-focused credit interventions through private banks, not direct CBN lending. Monetary policy should not attempt to replace commercial banking.
- Reduce government’s domestic borrowing needs. This requires fiscal reforms, spending discipline, and revenue expansion not more debt.
- Protect private-sector credit allocation. Regulators should discourage excessive bank investment in government securities.
Without these safeguards, the economy risks tilting dangerously toward monetary domination and private-sector suffocation.
The gains of transparency cannot come at the cost of institutional imbalance. Nigeria’s economic recovery depends on a thriving private sector, not an expanding government debt market. The central bank must not become the single most powerful issuer, dealer, regulator, and judge in its own market. That path leads not to stability but to systemic risk, risk that Nigeria’s fragile economy can ill afford.
Meanwhile, it is important for CBN to provide clarity on the economic rationale behind this centralisation of power. The CBN must come forward to justify how this shift will tangibly benefit the economy, particularly in the areas most sensitive to credit availability, financial stability and stability for Nigeria’s broader economy.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional writes from Lagos, can be reached via: bl***********@***il.com
Feature/OPED
Nigeria’s Olodo Uprising: An Assault on Critical Thinking
By Prince Charles Dickson, PhD
A sheep was passing and saw a lion crying inside a cage, trapped and helpless. The lion begged the sheep to rescue him, promising not to kill or eat it. The sheep refused at first, knowing fully well that a lion does not become a vegetarian because of captivity. But after much persuasion, emotional blackmail, and the sheep’s own gullibility, it opened the cage.
Now the lion was very hungry, having stayed in the cage for days without food. It quickly pounced on the sheep and was about to kill and eat it, but the sheep reminded him of his promise.
They were still arguing when other animals came passing. They sought to know what had happened. Both the lion and the sheep narrated their sides of the story, but because of fear, convenience, and a desperate need to gain favour in the lion’s eyes, all the animals took sides with the lion, except the tortoise, who claimed not to understand the whole scenario.
The tortoise asked the lion to show them where exactly he was before the sheep rescued him. The lion pointed at the cage.
The tortoise asked again, “Were you inside or outside when the sheep arrived?”
The lion replied, “I was inside.”
The tortoise then said, “Okay, enter and let us see how difficult it could be inside, because I am not getting the whole scenario.”
The lion entered, and immediately, the tortoise locked the cage. The lion was trapped again.
That story is not just folklore. It is a national diagnosis.
Nigeria today is full of trapped lions, gullible sheep, frightened animals, and very few tortoises. We have many people with opinions, but few with discernment. Many with certificates, but few with comprehension. Many with titles, but few with thought. Many who can quote policy, scripture, law, and ideology, but cannot ask the simple question that prevents disaster: “Wait first, how did we get here?”
That question is the beginning of critical thinking. Sadly, it is becoming an endangered species.
The easiest and most attractive national pastime remains buck-passing, especially with the bunch of leaders we have, some of whom can hardly peel a banana or wash an already white handkerchief. Not many of us want to take responsibility for anything, from personal life to family life, from community life to national life. The blame is always on the system, as if the system descended from the sky and imposed itself on innocent citizens.
We do not need to create demons out of our leaders because, in too many instances, they have behaved like ready-made specimens of public demons. So, we hang our sins on them, sometimes appropriately, sometimes lazily. Unfortunately, their behaviour has made it easy for the critics to descend on them. They shout loudly, lie casually, perform empathy only when cameras are present, and govern as though the people are background noise in their private banquet.
But there is a deeper tragedy. The lion is not our only problem. The sheep, too, must be examined. The other animals must be questioned. Even the silence of the forest must stand trial.
This is where the Olodo Syndrome enters.
In Nigerian street language, “Olodo” is often used to describe a dull person, someone slow to understand, someone who fails where basic reasoning should have saved them. But in this essay, Olodo is not merely the person who did not go to school. No. Nigeria has produced a more sophisticated creature: the educated olodo. The certificated illiterate. The graduate who cannot reason beyond slogans. The public officer who mistakes grammar for intelligence. The citizen who forwards nonsense with confidence. The analyst who mistakes noise for insight. The leader who confuses movement with progress. The voter who sells tomorrow for rice today, then spends four years complaining that the pot is empty.
Olodo, therefore, is not the absence of schooling. It is the failure of judgment.
It is what happens when a nation rewards mediocrity and punishes thought. It is what happens when people who ask serious questions are labelled troublesome, while those who clap for madness are called loyal. It is what happens when dumb, crazy things move the needle, while wisdom is treated like an old man coughing in the corner. It is what happens when unintelligent people do not merely exist, but are celebrated, promoted, defended, and installed as gatekeepers over those who still dare to think.
This is Nigeria’s Olodo Uprising.
It is an uprising not of the poor against the rich, nor of the uneducated against the educated. It is an uprising of shallow thinking against depth. An assault on memory, logic, accountability, and consequence. It is the national habit of refusing to connect action to outcome. We open the cage, release the lion, and then begin a prayer meeting when the lion remembers its appetite.
We talk, write, and discuss the Nigerian myth with a sense of fatalism. “This is Nigeria,” we say, as if that phrase is both an explanation and an excuse. If everyone thought as much about justice and fairness, life would be better. I am a critic, yes, but I am also a critic’s critic. I remain an unrepentant believer that one of the ways to keep the government on its toes is to keep harping on its flaws so that it can improve. But criticism without self-examination becomes entertainment. It becomes pepper soup politics, the kind we enjoy at drinking joints, suya spots, WhatsApp groups, and television studios where every table has a parliament and every loud voice is mistaken for a constitution.
Often, I say I believe the things I write are important for our nation, as they are for other nations. But when it appears to me that Nigerians, especially those in authority, do not react to these issues as people in other lands do, I repeat them in new essays to remind old readers and recruit new ones to participate in the continuing dialogue.
Because repetition, sometimes, is not a lack of creativity. It is the burden of memory in a country addicted to forgetting.
Sadly, this is Nigeria, where nothing works, and no one cares. When it works, it is often because someone’s interest is about to be served or is already being served, not because the people’s interest has suddenly become sacred. We talk about our institutions despairingly. Our leaders do not watch network news except when their faces will appear at their sons’ or daughters’ weddings, birthdays, burials, thanksgiving services, or self-sponsored ceremonies of public praise. They do not need newspapers anymore because too many pages are already full of their lies, paid adverts, and noisy banters dressed as governance.
A country that destroys thinking will eventually be governed by instinct.
That is why the Olodo Syndrome is dangerous. It not only makes people ignorant. It makes them confidently ignorant. It gives stupidity a microphone and asks wisdom to apply for permission to speak. It converts public debate into shouting contests. It turns leadership recruitment into ethnic arithmetic, religious panic, stomach infrastructure, and emotional blackmail. It makes citizens defend their oppressors because the oppressor speaks their language, attends their church, worships in their mosque, comes from their zone, or once gave them transport money.
This is how the other animals sided with the lion.
Not because the lion was right. They knew he was wrong. But fear is a powerful editor of truth. Hunger is a wicked lawyer. Proximity to power is a dangerous intoxicant. In Nigeria, many people do not support injustice because they are confused. They support it because they are calculating. They are asking themselves, “What if the lion remembers me tomorrow? What if I need a favour? What if I condemn him now and he becomes minister, governor, chairman, commissioner, vice chancellor, senator, president?”
So, they betray the sheep.
Government bashing remains a national pastime, and every drinking joint and suya spot has a sitting parliament with an expert on every issue. But we forget that no matter the input, if the politicians and actors on our national scene have questionable lives both at personal and domestic levels, nothing will change. The best government policy cannot change the individual when the policies themselves are formulated on a bad foundation by people with warped thinking.
A corrupt mind cannot midwife a clean system.
When a witch proclaims her presence, and an invalid does not make away, he must have money for sacrifices at home. Nigeria has been warned too many times. We have seen the witch. We have heard the announcement. Yet we remain seated, arguing about who invited her, who offended her, which village she came from, and whether her witchcraft is constitutionally recognised.
This is not merely a leadership failure. It is civic laziness. It is moral cowardice. It is intellectual surrender.
The tortoise in the story represents the rare citizen who does not join the chorus. The one who pauses the noise. The one who asks for sequence, evidence, context, motive, and consequence. The tortoise is not the loudest animal. It is not the strongest. It does not roar. It does not bleat. It thinks.
That is what Nigeria needs now: more tortoises.
Not slow people, but thoughtful people. Not cowards hiding under shells, but citizens who understand that speed without thought is national self-harm. We need people who can ask leaders: Where were you before power? What did you promise? What have you done? Who benefits? Who pays? What happens tomorrow? We need teachers who teach children to question, not merely to cram. We need voters who examine character before currency. We need religious leaders who produce conscience, not crowds. We need journalists who investigate, not decorate. We need institutions that reward competence over loyalty, substance over noise, and courage over convenience.
Because the lion will always be hungry again.
That is the part Nigeria refuses to learn. Appeasing bad leadership does not end its appetite. Excusing mediocrity does not transform it into excellence. Rewarding foolishness does not make it wise. If we allow the lion to eat the sheep today because we are afraid, hungry, tribal, religiously sentimental, or politically invested, we have not solved the hunger problem. We have only postponed our own turn.
In amazement, the other animals asked the tortoise, “why” and the tortoise replied. “If we allow him to eat the sheep today, he will still go hungry tomorrow, and we don’t know what will be eaten tomorrow—May Nigeria win.
Feature/OPED
Stocks vs Forex: Which is Better for Beginners in 2026?
By Onah Ishioma Adaeze
As a beginner, choosing between stocks and forex for your investment goals in 2026 can feel overwhelming. Before investing your hard-earned money, it is important to understand how both markets work.
While both markets present investors with opportunities to grow their wealth, they also differ in terms of volatility, liquidity, market hours, and leverage. Stocks involve owning portions of a company, while forex has to do with trading a base currency against a quote currency.
In this article, we will be going through the basics of stocks and forex, pointing out their differences, and helping you decide which asset better suits your investment journey in 2026.
What is Stock Trading?
When it comes to stock trading, you are buying shares of a company, which makes you a shareholder of that company. As a shareholder, you may be entitled to receive dividends whenever the company decides to pay dividends.
As for those companies that do not pay dividends, there are other benefits a shareholder may enjoy, like being called upon to attend shareholder meetings and having voting rights on certain company matters.
On a global scale, over $100 trillion worth of shares are traded annually. Also, the rising popularity of AI companies and technological innovations continues to drive investor participation and market growth.
If you’re an investor looking to buy and hold capital assets, then stock trading is definitely for you, as it allows for short-term, medium-term and long-term investment goals.
When you buy shares of a company and the company performs well, your shares increase in value. Another benefit of stock trading is access to index funds and ETFs.
These funds consist of companies that are grouped under an index. They are carefully selected and monitored under the fund, sparing the investor the stress of actively tracking the fund.
They can be a way of building a long-term, diversified portfolio, and some of these funds may pay dividends.
What is Forex Trading?
Forex trading has to do with buying one currency and selling another. With a pair like USD/JPY, USD is the base currency being bought against JPY, which is the quote currency.
In order to execute a trade in the forex market, you have to analyse and make predictions based on price movement, as well as pay attention to what’s going on in the global news scene.
The forex market runs twenty-four hours every weekday, with over $9 trillion traded in the market every day. Being the largest financial market in the world, there is very high liquidity.
Forex trading involves buying one currency against another, making predictions based on price movements on the forex charts. Price moves based on the activities of large institutions like hedge funds, big banks, the government, etc.
The forex market runs 24 hours a day, every weekday, with global forex turnover reaching $9 trillion per day in the BIS 2025 survey. Being the largest financial market in the world, there is very high volatility and price fluctuations.
At the same time, there is high liquidity in the market, which means that currency pairs can easily be bought and sold without hassle. Highly liquid instruments that are traded regularly include: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and gold (XAU/USD).
As a retail trader, knowing when to enter and exit the market is important. As easy as it is to make profits from price fluctuations, it is also very easy to lose money if the market moves against you. This is why it is important to set stop losses and take profits. This helps manage your trading capital.
Major Differences Between Stocks and Forex
While investing in stocks and forex can yield great capital gains, there are lots of ways in which they differ.
As a beginner, stock trading provides opportunities for long-term investments, ensuring slow but consistent returns for wealth building. But if you are looking for an active, short-term style of investment, then forex trading is for you, as it allows you to enter and exit the market within a shorter time frame.
Which is Better in 2026?
Choosing an asset to invest in all boils down to personal preference. At the same time, if you are not averse to risk, nor opposed to asset diversification, then it’s okay to invest in both.
For beginner investors in 2026, stock trading is easier to understand and get into, especially because of mutual funds, index funds and ETFs. With those funds, you don’t have to be an expert to start investing. You can just buy a fund that suits your needs and hold it over a long period of time.
If you are an investor who enjoys technical analysis, highly volatile and liquid markets, as well as trading under short time frames, then forex trading is the right pick for you.
Conclusion
You do not need to put all your eggs in one basket. There are investors who invest in both stocks and forex simultaneously. When starting out, you can start investing in stocks while learning forex. Take calculated risks and do not invest above your means. Diversify your investments and remember, when starting out, you should prioritise acquiring knowledge over profits.
Onah Ishioma Adaeze is a finance writer who is passionate about simplifying complex concepts into easily digestible pieces. Her hobbies are reading and watching anime
Feature/OPED
Building 234 Solutions: A Response to Everyday Workforce Challenges
By Owoloye Emmanuel
Every business starts with a problem. For us, that problem was hiding in plain sight.
Across organisations, we kept seeing HR professionals, payroll teams, and business leaders spend significant time navigating processes that should be simpler. Employee records sat across multiple systems, payroll processes required manual intervention, and routine workforce tasks often became more complicated than they needed to be.
As businesses grow, workforce operations naturally become more complex. Yet many organisations still rely on disconnected tools and workflows that create unnecessary friction for both employers and employees.
The consequence is more than operational inefficiency. HR teams spend valuable time managing systems instead of supporting people. Business leaders struggle to access timely workforce insights, while employees experience delays in processes that should be seamless.
These weren’t isolated challenges. They were recurring realities across workplaces, regardless of industry or size.
That observation led us to a simple question: what if workforce management could be easier?
What if HR, payroll, and workforce operations could work together within a single, connected experience?
That question became the foundation for 234 Solutions.
We are building 234 Solutions with a clear belief that workplace technology should reduce complexity, not add to it. Our goal is to help organisations spend less time navigating processes and more time focusing on productivity, growth, and people.
As we prepare for launch, our focus remains simple: building practical solutions for real workplace challenges and helping organisations create better experiences for the people who power them every day.
Owoloye Emmanuel is the founder of 234 Solutions
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