Feature/OPED
CBN’s 303rd MPC Meeting: A Technocratic Victory, an Economic Setback, and a Missed Opportunity on Nigeria’s Real Crisis
By Blaise Udunze
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) 303rd Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting arrived at a time of unprecedented tension within the Nigerian economy. The country has not faced a more difficult convergence of challenges for more than a decade in the area of crushing food inflation, unrelenting insecurity, slowing growth, weak purchasing power, a fragile exchange rate, and rapidly eroding business confidence, as these are the current realities.
Yet, against this troubling backdrop, the MPC chose to retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27 percent, kept the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at a record-high 45 percent, held the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30 percent, and adjusted the asymmetric corridor, making it more reflective of technocratic cautions than economic realities
With the tense atmosphere, boldness, contextual sensitivity, and human-centric policymaking are required to douse the challenges. Instead, what Nigeria received was another round of technocratic orthodoxy, at a time when orthodoxy has clearly failed.
Why This MPC Meeting Matters More Than Any in Recent Memory
The importance of the 303rd MPC meeting cannot be overstated. It occurred at a time when:
– Nigeria’s food inflation remains structurally high, driven mainly by insecurity, not excess liquidity.
– Banditry, farmer-herder conflicts, kidnapping, and terrorism have made farming a high-risk activity across the North-East, North-West, North-Central, and increasingly the South, which has created an environment where fear, uncertainty, and instability have become the daily reality for millions of Nigerians.
– Growth has slowed, reflecting a tightening credit environment and collapsing consumer demand, while households spend 70-80 percent of income on food, according to industry surveys.
– Private-sector credit is shrinking, while government borrowing is expanding.
– The naira, though stabilising, remains vulnerable.
Given these realities, the MPC was expected to signal a shift, however modest, toward a more growth-supportive stance. Instead, it doubled down on tight policy.
Many analysts interpret this as a sign that the CBN is more committed to defending the naira and preserving the appearance of stability than responding to the lived experiences of citizens and businesses.
The CBN’s Insecurity Blind Spot: Food Prices Cannot Fall When Farmers Are Running for Their Lives
One of the biggest ironies in Nigeria today is the insistence by some policymakers that food prices are “declining” or that inflation is “moderating,” even as insecurity remains the biggest structural threat to price stability.
This contradiction reveals the central tension of Nigeria’s current economic moment; the macro indicators are improving, but the real economy, especially the food system, is collapsing under insecurity.
Recently, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) issued a stark warning that 35 million Nigerians are projected to face severe food insecurity by the 2026 lean season, which is the highest number ever recorded. Why? Because insurgent attacks are intensifying. Farmers are being killed or kidnapped. Entire communities are paying “harvest taxes” to armed groups.
Today, we witness farmers abandoning thousands of hectares of farmland. Irrigation systems, seeds, and inputs are inaccessible in conflict zones. This creates a vicious cycle as:
– insecurity reduces agricultural production,
– Reduced production pushes food prices up,
– Rising food prices fuel inflation,
– inflation erodes purchasing power,
– poverty deepens,
– insecurity worsens.
Yet the MPC communique did not mention this core driver of inflation in any meaningful way.
Instead, it continued to frame inflation as a monetary problem; something interest rates alone can fix. This is not only analytically flawed; it shows a more dangerous misdiagnosis that will prolong Nigeria’s food crisis.
The Hidden Question: Are Nigeria’s Inflation Numbers Truly Reliable?
A quiet but growing debate is emerging within the financial community about Nigeria’s inflation numbers and macroeconomic figures being massaged.
Dr. Tilewa Adebajo, CEO of CFG Advisory, put it bluntly, “Zero rate cut suggests the CBN MPC may not be totally confident in the NBS recent inflation numbers at 16 percent.”
This suspicion is not unfounded. Considering the recent realities facing the citizens, Nigerians are spending more on food than at any time in the last two generations. Staple prices such as rice, yams, garri, and beans are still high in almost every major market. Transport, rent, fuel, and electricity costs remain on the high side. Businesses report that operating expenses have not declined by any meaningful margin. Yet official inflation fell sharply to 16.05 percent.
It is mathematically difficult for headline inflation to fall significantly when food inflation, which is the most dominant component, continues to rise due to insecurity, logistics disruptions, and energy costs. This mismatch has forced many economists to ask: what exactly is being measured, and is the methodology still credible? For households already on the brink, numbers that suggest “improvement” feel not only inaccurate but insulting.
The Disconnect Between Governance and Lived Experience
This is where Nigeria’s economic narrative collapses, as the statistics may suggest progress, but households feel worse off than ever. This is why growing segments of society describe government optimism as tone-deaf.
A country cannot be “on the right path” when its citizens cannot afford rice, cannot fuel their generators, cannot pay transport fares, and cannot access credit to expand their businesses.
This disconnect exposes what many call the technocratic illusion, which is overly relying on models, spreadsheets, and monetary tenets in a country where insecurity, not excessive demand, is driving inflation. It reflects a divide between governance and reality, data and hunger, stability and survival.
Tight Monetary Policy: A Victory for Banks, a Defeat for the Real Economy
While the CBN insists that its tight stance is essential for price stability, analysts warn that the costs are becoming unbearable. Dr. Muda Yusuf argues that even a small rate cut of 25 to 50 basis points would have signaled a commitment to growth. Instead:
– Lending rates remain between 33 percent and 45 percent, suffocating SMEs.
– Credit to the private sector fell from N75.9 trillion to N72.5 trillion in just one month.
– Government borrowing is rising, crowding out real-sector lending.
– Manufacturers have cut production, citing financing conditions.
– Job creation is slowing, especially in youth-led sectors.
Banks, meanwhile, are reporting stronger margins and higher interest income. The question is no longer whether tight policy fights inflation. The question is whether Nigeria’s economy can survive its side effects.
The Naira: Stability Built on Fragile Foundations
The CBN’s main justification for maintaining the high MPR is to attract foreign portfolio investment (FPI), support the naira, and avoid destabilizing capital outflows. But this stability is fragile. FPIs are temporary “hot money.” They disappear at the slightest global shock.
Nigeria has suffered the consequences of relying on this route in 2014, 2018, 2020, and 2022. A sustainable naira requires:
– More domestic production
– Higher exports
– Better security
– Improved energy supply
– and a functional agricultural sector.
None of these received priority mention in the MPC deliberations.
The Real Test of Reform Is in People’s Lives, Not in Abuja’s Spreadsheets
Nigeria’s macroeconomic gains are being celebrated abroad. But hunger, joblessness, and despair are expanding at home. This is the irony of the current moment:
– Inflation is easing, yet hunger is rising.
– FX reserves are improving, yet insecurity is deepening.
– Subsidies are gone, yet the fiscal space they were meant to create is invisible.
– Reforms have stabilised numbers, but not people.
The World Bank’s October 2025 report warned that Nigeria’s progress means nothing if human welfare remains in decline. The success of reforms must now be measured not by GDP or FX reserves, but by how many Nigerians can afford to eat, work, and live with dignity.
A Missed Opportunity, Again
The 303rd MPC meeting should have been a turning point, a recognition that Nigeria’s inflation crisis is rooted in insecurity and supply shocks, not excess liquidity. Instead, the committee delivered technical caution, policy defensiveness, and an over-reliance on interest rate orthodoxy.
Nigeria needs a monetary policy that understands where the real crisis lies, in the abandoned farmlands, the unsafe highways, the displaced farming communities, and the markets where food prices rise weekly.
Without confronting this, Nigeria will continue to win macroeconomic battles while losing the war for human survival.
The Path Nigeria Must Chart to End Insecurity, Food Inflation, and Economic Stagnation
Nigeria’s 303rd MPC meeting made one thing clear that the country cannot escape its economic turmoil through monetary tightening alone. Interest rates cannot secure farms, rebuild supply chains, or put food on the table. What Nigeria needs now is a decisive, coordinated strategy that goes beyond the narrow lens of inflation targeting.
– First, security must become the cornerstone of price stability.
Food inflation will not recede until farmers can return to their lands without fear. A National Agro-Security Task Force merging military units, agro-rangers, police, intelligence agencies, and vetted community guards must secure farmlands and food corridors. Without safety in the agricultural belt, every other policy becomes cosmetic.
– Second, the CBN must adopt a dual mandate: price stability and growth.
Nigeria’s rigid monetary stance is suppressing credit, killing jobs, and suffocating production. Lowering the CRR to a realistic 25-30 percent and providing targeted single-digit loans to SMEs and manufacturers is essential for economic revival. Monetary policy must support growth, not stifle it.
– Third, Nigeria must rebuild trust in its economic data.
Doubts about inflation figures erode confidence. Modernizing NBS data-collection methods through digital analytics, satellite tools, and transparent audits is crucial. No country can chart a path out of crisis with unreliable statistics.
– Fourth, structural reforms must address cost-push inflation at its root.
Nigeria’s inflation is driven by high production costs despite poor roads, expensive power, weak logistics, and inefficient transport systems. Repairing agricultural roads, expanding rail freight, investing in cold-chain infrastructure, and boosting industrial power supply will reduce costs and unlock productivity.
– Fifth, the country must build an export-driven economy.
Stable exchange rates come from production, not high interest rates. Tax incentives for exporters, fully functional Special Economic Zones, and improvements in customs efficiency will help Nigeria attract stable capital and grow non-oil exports.
– Sixth, social protection must expand to shield vulnerable households.
Targeted food vouchers, transport subsidies, and school feeding programs are necessary to cushion families from economic shocks. Reform without social protection is a recipe for social unrest.
– Finally, Nigeria needs a whole-of-government Economic War Room.
Security agencies, economic ministries, the CBN, the NBS, and the private sector must collaborate in real time to track inflation drivers, coordinate responses, and prevent policy contradictions. Economic management must become proactive, not reactive.
Stability Must Translate to Human Welfare
The 303rd MPC meeting signaled caution, but what Nigeria needs is direction. It needs clarity, boldness, and policies rooted in the lived realities of millions. Monetary tightening has achieved what it can; the next phase requires confronting insecurity, energizing production, restoring data credibility, and building a growth-driven economy.
Nigeria cannot tighten its way out of this crisis. It must reform, secure, produce, and most importantly, protect its people. If not, the nation will continue to win statistical battles while losing the war for human survival.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
Feature/OPED
Why the Future of PR Depends on Healthier Client–Agency Partnerships
By Moliehi Molekoa
The start of a new year often brings optimism, new strategies, and renewed ambition. However, for the public relations and reputation management industry, the past year ended not only with optimism but also with hard-earned clarity.
2025 was more than a challenging year. It was a reckoning and a stress test for operating models, procurement practices, and, most importantly, the foundation of client–agency partnerships. For the C-suite, this is not solely an agency issue.
The year revealed a more fundamental challenge: a partnership problem that, if left unaddressed, can easily erode the very reputations, trust, and resilience agencies are hired to protect. What has emerged is not disillusionment, but the need for a clearer understanding of where established ways of working no longer reflect the reality they are meant to support.
The uncomfortable truth we keep avoiding
Public relations agencies are businesses, not cost centres or expandable resources. They are not informal extensions of internal teams, lacking the protection, stability, or benefits those teams receive. They are businesses.
Yet, across markets, agencies are often expected to operate under conditions that would raise immediate concerns in any boardroom:
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Unclear and constantly shifting scope
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Short-term contracts paired with long-term expectations
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Sixty-, ninety-, even 120-day payment terms
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Procurement-led pricing pressure divorced from delivery realities
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Pitch processes that consume months of senior talent time, often with no feedback, timelines, or accountability
If these conditions would concern you within your own organisation, they should also concern you regarding the partner responsible for your reputation.
Growth on paper, pressure in practice
On the surface, the industry appears healthy. Global market valuations continue to rise. Demand for reputation management, stakeholder engagement, crisis preparedness, and strategic counsel has never been higher.
However, beneath this top-line growth lies the uncomfortable reality: fewer than half of agencies expect meaningful profit growth, even as workloads increase and expectations rise.
This disconnect is significant. It indicates an industry being asked to deliver more across additional platforms, at greater speed, with deeper insight, and with higher risk exposure, all while absorbing increased commercial uncertainty.
For African agencies in particular, this pressure is intensified by factors such as volatile currencies, rising talent costs, fragile data infrastructure, and procurement models adopted from economies with fundamentally different conditions. This is not a complaint. It is reality.
This pressure is not one-sided. Many clients face constraints ranging from procurement mandates and short-term cost controls to internal capacity gaps, which increasingly shift responsibility outward. But pressure transfer is not the same as partnership, and left unmanaged, it creates long-term risk for both parties.
The pitching problem no one wants to own
Agencies are not anti-competition. Pitches sharpen thinking and drive excellence. What agencies increasingly challenge is how pitching is done.
Across markets, agencies participate in dozens of pitches each year, with success rates well below 20%. Senior leaders frequently invest unpaid hours, often with limited information, tight timelines, and evaluation criteria that prioritise cost over value.
And then, too often, dead silence, no feedback, no communication about delays, and a lack of decency in providing detailed feedback on the decision drivers.
In any other supplier relationship, this would not meet basic governance standards. In a profession built on intellectual capital, it suggests that expertise is undervalued.
This is also where independent pitch consultants become increasingly important and valuable if clients choose this route to help facilitate their pitch process. Their role in the process is not to advocate for agencies but to act as neutral custodians of fairness, realism, and governance. When used well, they help clients align ambition with timelines, scope, and budget, and ensure transparency and feedback that ultimately lead to better decision-making.
“More for less” is not a strategy
A particularly damaging expectation is the belief that agencies can sustainably deliver enterprise-level outcomes on limited budgets, often while dedicating nearly full-time senior resources. This is not efficiency. It is misalignment.
No executive would expect a business unit to thrive while under-resourced, overexposed, and cash-constrained. Yet agencies are often required to operate under these conditions while remaining accountable for outcomes that affect market confidence, stakeholder trust, and brand equity.
Here is a friendly reminder: reputation management is not a commodity. It is risk management.
It is value creation. It also requires investment that matches its significance.
A necessary reset
As leadership teams plan for growth, resilience, and relevance, there is both an opportunity and a responsibility to reset how agency partnerships are structured.
That reset looks like:
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Contracts that balance flexibility and sustainability
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Payment terms that reflect mutual dependency
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Pitch processes that respect time, talent, and transparency for all parties
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Scopes that align ambition with available budgets
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Relationships based on professional parity rather than power imbalance
This reset also requires discipline on the agency side – clearer articulation of value, sharper scoping, and greater transparency about how senior expertise is deployed. Partnership is not protectionism; it is mutual accountability.
The Leadership Question That Matters
The question for the C-suite is quite simple:
If your agency mirrored your internal standards of governance, fairness, and accountability, would you still be comfortable with how the relationship is structured?
If the answer is no, then change is not only necessary but also strategic. Because strong brands are built on strong partnerships. Strong partnerships endure only when both sides are recognised, respected, and resourced as businesses in their own right.
The agencies that succeed and the brands that truly thrive will be those that recognise this early and act deliberately.
Moliehi Molekoa is the Managing Director of Magna Carta Reputation Management Consultants and PRISA Board Member
Feature/OPED
Directing the Dual Workforce in the Age of AI Agents
By Linda Saunders
We will be the last generation to work with all-human workforces. This is not a provocative soundbite but a statement of fact, one that signals a fundamental shift in how organisations operate and what leadership now demands. The challenge facing today’s leaders is not simply adopting new technology but architecting an entirely new operating model where humans and autonomous AI agents work in concert.
According to Salesforce 2025 CEO research, 99% of CEOs say they are prepared to integrate digital labor into their business, yet only 51% feel fully prepared to do so. This gap between awareness and readiness reveals the central tension of this moment: we recognise the transformation ahead but lack established frameworks for navigating it. The question is no longer whether AI agents will reshape work, but whether leaders can develop the new capabilities required to direct this dual workforce effectively.
The scale of change is already visible in the data. According to the latest CIO trends, AI implementation has surged 282% year over year, jumping from 11% to 42% of organisations deploying AI at scale. Meanwhile, the IDC estimates that digital labour will generate a global economic impact of $13 trillion by 2030, with their research suggesting that agentic AI tools could enhance productivity by taking on the equivalent of almost 23% of a full-time employee’s weekly workload.
With the majority of CEOs acknowledging that digital labor will transform their company structure entirely, and that implementing agents is critical for competing in today’s economic climate, the reality is that transformation is not coming, it’s already here, and it requires a fundamental change to the way we approach leadership.
The Director of the Dual Workforce
Traditional management models, built on hierarchies of human workers executing tasks under supervision, were designed for a different era. What is needed now might be called the Director of the dual workforce, a leader whose mandate is not to execute every task but to architect and oversee effective collaboration between human teams and autonomous digital labor. This role is governed by five core principles that define how AI agents should be structured, deployed and optimised within organisations.
Structure forms the foundation. Just as organisational charts define human roles and reporting lines, leaders must design clear frameworks for AI agents, defining their scope, establishing mandates and setting boundaries for their operation. This is particularly challenging given that the average enterprise uses 897 applications, only 29% of which are connected. Leaders must create coherent structures within fragmented technology landscapes as a strong data foundation is the most critical factor for successful AI implementation. Without proper structure, agents risk operating in silos or creating new inefficiencies rather than resolving existing ones.
Oversight translates structure into accountability. Leaders must establish clear performance metrics and conduct regular reviews of their digital workforce, applying the same rigour they bring to managing human teams. This becomes essential as organisations scale beyond pilot projects and we’ve seen a significant increase in companies moving from pilot to production, indicating that the shift from experimentation to operational deployment is accelerating. It’s also clear that structured approaches to agent deployment can deliver return on investment substantially faster than do-it-yourself methods whilst reducing costs, but only when proper oversight mechanisms are in place.
To ensure agents learn from trusted data and behave as intended before deployment, training and testing is required. Leaders bear responsibility for curating the knowledge base agents access and rigorously testing their behaviour before release. This addresses a critical challenge: leaders believe their most valuable insights are trapped in roughly 19% of company data that remains siloed. The quality of training directly impacts performance and properly trained agents can achieve 75% higher accuracy than those deployed without rigorous preparation.
Additionally, strategy determines where and how to deploy agent resources for competitive advantage. This requires identifying high-value, repetitive or complex processes where AI augmentation drives meaningful impact. Early adoption patterns reveal clear trends: according to the Salesforce Agentic Enterprise Index tracking the first half of 2025, organisations saw a 119% increase in agents created, with top use cases spanning sales, service and internal business operations. The same research shows employees are engaging with AI agents 65% more frequently, and conversations are running 35% longer, suggesting that strategic deployment is finding genuine utility rather than novelty value.
The critical role of observability
The fifth principle, to observe and track, has emerged as perhaps the most critical enabler for scaling AI deployments safely. This requires real-time visibility into agent behaviour and performance, creating transparency that builds trust and enables rapid optimisation.
Given the surge in AI implementation, leaders need unified views of their AI operations to scale securely. Success hinges on seamless integration into core systems rather than isolated projects, and agentic AI demands new skills, with the top three in demand being leadership, storytelling and change management. The ability to observe and track agent performance is what makes this integration possible, allowing leaders to identify issues quickly, demonstrate accountability and make informed decisions about scaling.
The shift towards dual workforce management is already reshaping executive priorities and relationships. CIOs now partner more closely with CEOs than any other C-suite peer, reflecting their changing and central role in technology-driven strategy. Meanwhile, recent CHRO research found that 80% of Chief Human Resources Officers believe that within five years, most workforces will combine humans and AI agents, with expected productivity gains of 30% and labour cost reductions of 19%. The financial perspective has also clearly shifted dramatically, with CFOs moving away from cautious experimentation toward actively integrating AI agents into how they assess value, measure return on investment, and define broader business outcomes.
Leading the transition
The current generation of leaders are the crucial architects who must design and lead this transition. The role of director of the dual workforce is not aspirational but necessary, grounded in principles that govern effective agent deployment. Success requires moving beyond viewing AI as a technical initiative to understanding it as an organisational transformation that touches every aspect of operations, from workflow design to performance management to strategic planning.
This transformation also demands new capabilities from leaders themselves. The skills that defined effective management in all-human workforces remain important but are no longer sufficient. Leaders must develop fluency in understanding agent capabilities and limitations, learn to design workflows that optimally divide labor between humans and machines, and cultivate the ability to measure and optimise performance across both types of workers. They must also navigate the human dimensions of this transition, helping employees understand how their roles evolve, ensuring that the benefits of productivity gains are distributed fairly, and maintaining organisational cultures that value human judgement and creativity even as routine tasks migrate to digital labor.
The responsibility to direct what comes next, to architect systems where human creativity, judgement and relationship-building combine with the scalability, consistency and analytical power of AI agents, rests with today’s leaders. The organisations that thrive will be those whose directors embrace this mandate, developing the structures, oversight mechanisms, training protocols, strategic frameworks and observability systems that allow dual workforces to deliver on their considerable promise.
Feature/OPED
Energy Transition: Will Nigeria Go Green Only To Go Broke?
By Isah Kamisu Madachi
Nigeria has been preparing for a sustainable future beyond oil for years. At COP26 in the UK, the country announced its commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060. Shortly after the event, the Energy Transition Plan (ETP) was unveiled, the Climate Change Act 2021 was passed and signed into law, and an Energy Transition Office was created for the implementations. These were impressive efforts, and they truly speak highly of the seriousness of the federal government. However, beyond climate change stress, there’s an angle to look at this issue, because in practice, an important question in this conversation that needs to be answered is: how exactly will Nigeria’s economy be when oil finally stops paying the bills?
For decades, oil has been the backbone of public finance in Nigeria. It funds budgets, stabilises foreign exchange, supports states through monthly FAAC allocations, and quietly props up the naira. Even when production falls or prices fluctuate, the optimism has always been that oil will somehow carry Nigeria through the storms. It is even boldly acknowledged in the available policy document of the energy transition plan that global fossil fuel demand will decline. But it does not fully confront what that decline means for a country of roughly 230 million people whose economy is still largely structured around oil dollars.
Energy transition is often discussed from the angle of the emissions issue alone. However, for Nigeria, it is first an economic survival issue. Evidence already confirms that oil now contributes less to GDP than it used to, but it remains central to government revenue and foreign exchange earnings. When oil revenues drop, the effects are felt in budget shortfalls, rising debt, currency pressure, and inflation. Nigerians experienced this reality during periods of oil price crashes, from 2014 to the pandemic shock.
The Energy Transition Plan promises to lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty, expand energy access, preserve jobs, and lead a fair transition in Africa. These are necessary goals for a future beyond fossil fuels. But this bold ambition alone does not replace revenue. If oil earnings shrink faster than alternative sources grow, the transition risks deepening fiscal stress rather than easing it. Without a clear post-oil revenue strategy tied directly to the transition, Nigeria may end up cleaner with the net-zero goals achieved, but poorer.
Jobs need to be considered, too. The plan recognises that employment in the oil sector will decline over time. What should be taken into consideration is where large-scale employment will come from. Renewable energy, of course, creates jobs, but not automatically, and not at the scale oil-related value chains once supported, unless deliberately designed to do so. Solar panels assembled abroad and imported into Nigeria will hardly replace lost oil jobs. Local manufacturing, large-scale skills development, and industrial policy are what make the difference, yet these remain weak links in Nigeria’s transition conversation.
The same problem is glaringly present in public finance. States that depend heavily on oil-derived allocations are already struggling to pay salaries, though with improvement after fuel subsidy removal. A future with less oil revenue will only worsen this unless states are supported to proactively build formidably productive local economies. Energy transition, if disconnected from economic diversification, could unintentionally widen inequality between regions and states and also exacerbate dependence on internal and external borrowing.
There is also the foreign exchange question. Oil export is still Nigeria’s main source of dollars. As global demand shifts and revenues decline, pressure on the naira will likely intensify unless non-oil exports rise in a dramatically meaningful way. However, Nigeria’s non-oil export base remains very narrow. Agriculture, solid minerals, manufacturing, and services are often mentioned, but rarely aligned with the Energy Transition Plan in a concrete and measurable way.
The core issue here is not about Nigeria wanting to transition, but that it wants to transition without rethinking how the economy earns, spends, and survives. Clean energy will not automatically fix public finance, stabilise the currency, or replace lost oil income and jobs. Those outcomes require deliberate and strategic economic choices that go beyond power generation and meeting emissions targets. Otherwise, the country will be walking into a future where oil is no longer dependable, yet nothing else has been built strongly enough to pay the bills as oil did.
Isah Kamisu Madachi is a policy analyst and development practitioner. He writes from Abuja and can be reached via [email protected]
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