Feature/OPED
Conflicts/Insecurity in Africa and Achike Chudi’s Solution
By Jerome-Mario Utomi
It was at a recent gathering organised by one of the Catholic churches in Lagos aimed at creating new awareness to assist parishioners to keep abreast with the fuelling factors and possible steps that will cushion the socioeconomic impact of nagging insecurity in the country.
The gathering had as a theme Heightening Insecurity in the Country: Exploring Ways to Mitigate Hardship, with Achike Chudi, a public affairs commentator and Vice President Joint Action Front (JAF) as the keynote speaker.
On that day, at that time and in that place, while Achike examined the multiple layers of formal and informal political leadership in post-colonial Africa, the primary holders, controllers and distributors of power and resources in a particular institution and/or territory, he argued that contemporary African leaders operate in an environment constrained by colonial legacies and instability and submitted that leadership in Nigeria/Africa as a continent is characteristically neo-patrimonial, featuring presidentialism, clientelism, the use of state resources and the centralization of power.
Separate from providing sustainable roadmaps/solutions to the nagging challenge of conflict/insecurity in Nigeria and Africa as a whole, there are in fact more inherent reasons why we must not allow Achike’s latest intervention to go with political winds.
First, he started by stating without doubt that the problem of the Nigerian nation is rooted in our past, just as the foundation of every state is in the education of its youth and the beauty of a building traced to the construction of its foundation that will stand the test of time.
He used carefully prepared power points, properly framed arguments, vivid evidence and emotional match with the audience, to demonstrate that the way in which a government or institution at an international or societal level addresses conflict between individuals, groups or nations can determine whether the parties to the conflict will resort to violence.
He argued that State weakness can create the conditions for violent conflict, noting that political institutions that are unable to manage differing group interests peacefully, to provide adequate guarantees of group protection, or to accommodate growing demands for political participation, can fracture societies. There is a degree of consensus that there is a U-shaped relationship between levels of democracy and the likelihood of violent conflict, he concluded.
On the causes of conflict and insecurity, Achike has this to say; “there is no single cause of conflict. Rather, conflict is context-specific, multi-causal and multidimensional and can result from a combination of the following factors. Political and institutional factors: weak state institutions, elite power struggles and political exclusion, breakdown in social contract and corruption, identity politics.
“Socioeconomic factors: inequality, exclusion and marginalization, absence or weakening of social cohesion, poverty. Resource and environmental factors: greed, scarcity of national resources often due to population growth leading to environmental insecurity, unjust resource exploitation.”
Each of these factors he argued may constitute a cause, dynamic and/or impact of conflict. New issues will arise during the conflict which perpetuates the conflict. Identifying and understanding the interactions between various causes, dimensions, correlates and dynamics of conflict – and the particular contexts in which conflict arises, is essential in determining potential areas of intervention; and designing appropriate approaches and methods for conflict prevention, resolution and transformation
While mature democracies are able to manage tensions peacefully through democratic inclusion, stark autocracies are able to repress violence and manage conflict through force. The most vulnerable states are those in a political transition. Uncertainty and collective fears of the future, stemming from state weakness, clientelism and indiscriminate repression may result in the emergence of armed responses by marginalized groups and nationalist, ethnic or other populist ideologies.
Is democratization the best way to promote peace?
He again argues that the world would probably be safer if there were more mature democracies but, in the transition to democracy, countries become more aggressive and war-prone. The international community should be realistic about the dangers of encouraging democratization where the conditions are unripe. The risk of violence increases if democratic institutions are not in place when mass electoral politics are introduced.
Away from the usefulness of democracy to what causes ethnic conflict, and why does it escalate? He responded thus; intense ethnic conflict is usually caused by collective fears for the future. It presents a framework for understanding the origins and management of ethnic conflict and recommends how the international community can intervene more effectively.
Three key factors contribute to the development of ethnic conflict: Information failure, when individuals or groups misrepresent or misinterpret information about other groups; Problems of credible commitment, when one group cannot credibly reassure another that it will not renege on or exploit a mutual agreement; and Security dilemmas when one or more disputing parties has an incentive to use pre-emptive force. When these factors take hold, groups become apprehensive, the state weakens, and conflict becomes more likely.
The domination of access to state structures and resources by any one leader, group or political party to the exclusion of others exacerbates social divisions. It may provide incentives for excluded leaders to mobilise groups to protest and engage in violent rebellion. In contrast, inclusive elite bargains that seek to address social fragmentation and integrate a broad coalition of key elites can reduce the chances of violent rebellion.
Continuing, he said; a social contract is a framework of rules that govern state-society relations and the distribution of resources, rights and responsibilities in an organised society. How a government spends public revenue, regardless of whether it comes from taxes or from natural resources, is significant.
If it spends it equitably on social welfare and satisfying basic needs, conflict is less likely to occur if these resources are spent judiciously than when appropriated for corrupt or fractional purposes. Corruption undermines public trust in government, deters domestic and foreign investment, exacerbates inequalities in wealth and increases socio-economic grievances.
Equally, the inability of states to provide basic services, including justice and security, to all its citizens reduces state legitimacy and trust in state institutions, weakening or breaking the social contract.
Still, on the factor promoting insecurity/conflict, he told the bewildered gathering that in some cases, ruling groups may resort to violence to prolong their rule and maintain opportunities for corruption. This can in turn provoke violent rebellion by marginalized groups. In other situations, research has found that “buying off” opposition groups and belligerents may facilitate transitions to peace – The North and the importation of belligerents in anticipation of the 2015 elections
Moving away from elite power struggles and political exclusion, Achike raised another point relevant to the present security temperatures in the country and Africa.
In his words, colonialism and liberation struggles in Africa, the Middle East and Asia have left various legacies, including divisive and militarized politics and fierce struggles for power and land. Post-liberation leaders in some countries have sustained these dynamics, retaining power through neo-patrimonial networks, state capture, militarization and coercion.
Studies have shown that in some cases, they have promoted ideologies of ‘Us versus Them’, excluding and marginalising other groups. The domination of access to state structures and resources by any one leader, group or political party to the exclusion of others exacerbates social divisions. It may provide incentives for excluded leaders to mobilise groups to protest and engage in violent rebellion. In contrast, inclusive elite bargains that seek to address social fragmentation and integrate a broad coalition of key elites can reduce the chances of violent rebellion.
Sub-Saharan Africa, he said is the world’s most conflict-intensive region. But why have some African states experienced civil war, while others have managed to maintain political stability? This paper argues that the ability of post-colonial states in Sub-Saharan Africa to maintain political stability depends on the ability of the ruling political parties to overcome the historical legacy of social fragmentation.
On the way forward, he observed that creating inclusive elite bargains can bring stability while exclusionary elite bargains give rise to trajectories of civil war, promotion of inclusive political settlements. Most importantly, the nation must facilitate the further goals of (i) addressing causes of conflict and building resolution mechanisms; (ii) developing state survival functions; and (iii) responding to public expectations. Support across all four of these interrelated areas is necessary to help create a positive peace- and state-building dynamic, he concluded.
What does all this say to us in Nigeria? The answer in my view is in the womb of time.
Jerome-Mario Utomi is the Programme Coordinator (Media and Public Policy), Social and Economic Justice Advocacy (SEJA), Lagos. He could be reached via je*********@***oo.com/08032725374.
By Sani Abdulrazak, PhD
The late Sir Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna of Sokoto and Premier of Northern Nigeria, envisioned that the true measure of a society’s progress lay not just in the roads it built, the markets it opened or the wealth it accumulated, but in the education of its people.
A philosophy it was, born from the conviction that the most enduring obelisk any generation can leave behind is not one hewn in stones, but one etched into the minds of its children. Decades later, that timeless belief still resonates across Northern Nigeria, a reminder that every investment in education is, unquestionably, an investment in today and tomorrow.
Truth is, failure to educate a child is synonymous with condemning the next generation; it is amplifying an already debilitating multidimensional poverty, it is fuelling the flames of insecurity. Governor Uba Sani of Kaduna state shares this belief, and three years later under his watch, the state’s education sector tells a promising story that gives every resident of the state reason to hope…to believe.
A school is indeed more than bricks and mortar; it is a place where the future is quietly assembled. Sadly, countless classrooms across Kaduna reflected neglect rather than hope. Governor Uba Sani’s administration chose to change that narrative. Within three years, 736 new classrooms have been constructed and 2,326 renovated, while 30,742 pupils’ desks and 3,704 teachers’ tables and chairs have been supplied.
The government also completed 62 new secondary schools, with another 50 under construction. Through the School Access Project, between 102 and 104 additional schools are being established so that no child travels more than one kilometre to access education. Furthermore, six science secondary schools that had remained abandoned for over a decade have been completed and reopened by the present administration. Today, they provide quality science education to over 2,000 students.
Rising tuition fees by the previous administration had placed higher education beyond the reach of many families in Kaduna and beyond. The administration responded with a 50 per cent reduction in tuition fees across Kaduna State-owned tertiary institutions, including Kaduna State University and Nuhu Bamalli Polytechnic, reportedly increasing enrolment by over 200%. Kaduna State Government also paid approximately ₦407.94 million, equivalent to 247,235.84 United States dollars, to settle outstanding tuition for Kaduna-sponsored students studying abroad, while investing over ₦1 billion in scholarships, student loans and educational support programmes.
It is indeed true that education is only as strong as its custodians, the teachers. Recognising this, the administration recruited 10,000 teachers and trained more than 33,000 education personnel in modern teaching methods and digital learning. These investments are already yielding results, with students obtaining five credits and above in WAEC, NECO and NABTEB examinations increasing from 54 per cent to 67 per cent.
Nothing illustrates the measure of progress of this administration’s investment in education better than the decline in out-of-school children. Through expanded school access, improved infrastructure, tuition support and enhanced security, the number reportedly fell from about 580,000 to approximately 182,000, giving hundreds of thousands of children another chance at education.
Believing that education must ready young people for employment and enterprise, Kaduna State Government established three Institutes of Vocational Training and Skills Development in Soba, Rigachikun and Samaru Kataf, offering practical skills in ICT, renewable energy, mechatronics, welding, plumbing, fashion design, carpentry and automotive technology. The administration has also advanced inclusion through the nearly completed Special School for Gifted Children and the expansion of the Tsangaya Bilingual Schools Project with specialised teacher training.
Binding these educational reforms together is sustained investment. Between 2024 and 2026, Kaduna consistently allocated between 25 and 26.14 per cent of its annual budget to education, making it the state’s highest-funded sector. More than a budgetary decision, it is a declaration that Kaduna’s future will be built not only with roads and buildings, but with educated minds.
There is an African proverb that says, “The child who is carried on the back today may carry the nation on his shoulders tomorrow.” Make of that what you will, but only education will give the child the shoulders to do so. Generational chapters and eras are defined by battles won or lost, sometimes by monuments raised or conceived.
However, the most discerning write their legacy upon the minds via education, for no monument endures longer than an educated generation. Who’d better write us this chapter than the proverbial Lannister of our time, Governor Uba Sani? A leader elected because the people of Kaduna State knew he would be a reformist, and now he is shifting the tectonic plates of education…of governance in the state.
Even though a lot of work remains unfinished, the road ahead is anything but smooth. What is beyond doubt is the direction the state is heading towards. Should these reforms endure under the SUSTAIN Agenda, Kaduna may one day look back on Uba Sani’s first three years not merely as an era of educational reforms, but as the moment when the state chose to invest in the one sphere that time cannot diminish: the education of its people.
Feature/OPED
How Governor Uba Sani’s Sustain Agenda is Rewriting Kaduna’s Agricultural Metamorphosis
By Sani Abdulrazak, PhD
Governance ascends into telos when the hands that feed the nation work with sustained hope rather than uncertainty. The farmer is indeed relieved when he no longer gauges the farming season through the prism of survival or rising cost of fertiliser, but by the promise of a better harvest and a pathway to prosperity. Truth is, rural communities are only fundamentally satisfied when their fertile lands marry deliberate government intervention. This government intervention in agriculture is not in mere promises, speeches, or ceremonies, but in flourishing fields, fuller warehouses and improved livelihoods. At the very core of Governor Uba Sani’s SUSTAIN agenda is strengthening the bedrock upon which food security and economic prosperity are built: agriculture. His approach has been less of bombast and more of stewardship, allowing the sector to emerge from years of uncertainty into one of resurgence.
The agricultural sector of Kaduna State over the past three years reveals a government that has chosen investment over rhetoric. Pinpointing agriculture as the oxygen of the state’s economy, the administration has committed unprecedented resources to this very pertinent sector. The agricultural budget rose from barely ₦1.48 billion in 2023 to ₦74.2 billion in 2025, before exceeding ₦100 billion in the 2026 budget, making Kaduna one of the few states committing over 10 per cent of its annual expenditure to agriculture. These allocations represent an explicit declaration that meaningful agricultural transformation begins with deliberate investment. They equally reflect the prudence and resolve to position Kaduna not merely as a producer of crops but as an agricultural colossus. What once appeared a distant aspiration is gradually taking the shape of a tangible renaissance, built not on ephemeral promises but on carefully hewn policies and enduring commitments.
The most conspicuous manifestation of this administration’s intervention has been its direct support for farmers. Admittedly, farming has become increasingly expensive across the country lately, yet Kaduna state responded with one of the largest agricultural support programmes by distributing 15,000 metric tonnes of fertiliser, equivalent to about 500 truckloads, free of charge to over 120,000 farmers across the 23 local government areas. Through the “Tallafin Noma programme”, an additional 69,000 smallholder farmers received improved maize seeds and agrochemicals to increase productivity. These interventions have reduced production costs for thousands of farming households while strengthening food production at a time when food security remains a national concern. Such interventions are not mere statistics; they are a bulwark against rural poverty, a catalyst for productivity and a harbinger of renewed confidence. For many farmers, government support has become the linchpin upon which an abundant harvest now rests.
Governor Uba Sani understands that the true promise of modern agriculture lies not only in cultivation but also in the value created after the harvest. The commencement of the Kaduna Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zone marks an important shift from exporting raw produce to processing agricultural commodities within the state. Complementing this is the construction of Northern Nigeria’s first Agricultural Quality Assurance Centre, designed to certify agricultural produce for local and international markets. Together, these initiatives promise to reduce post-harvest losses, attract private investment, create employment opportunities and improve the competitiveness of Kaduna’s agricultural products beyond Nigeria’s borders. They equally represent a conscious effort to build an agricultural ecosystem, a lasting edifice of productivity whose impact will reverberate far beyond the present generation. The vision is transformative as it is audacious, replacing dependence with self-sufficiency and creating a confluence where farming, industry and commerce intersect.
Mechanisation and rural agricultural support have also received renewed focus. The procurement of tractors and farm implements, the provision of irrigation pumps, power tillers, fertilisers, and crop protection chemicals to farmer cooperatives, alongside continued investment in rural and farm-to-market roads, shows an understanding that productivity improves when farmers are supported with the right tools and infrastructure. Easier access to markets not only reduces transportation costs but also minimises post-harvest losses, ensuring that farmers reap greater value from their labour. These investments have become the fulcrum upon which rural prosperity increasingly turns, replacing archaic practices with innovative solutions and galvanising communities to embrace modern agriculture. They stand as an obelisk of thoughtful governance, a testament to the belief that development flourishes where opportunity is deliberately cultivated.
Superlatives are in short supply when describing Governor Uba Sani’s three years in office, and even more so when one attempts to capture the magnitude of his agricultural revolution. Among the promises he made was to revive agriculture as the engine of Kaduna’s economy, and, as always, he has kept his promise. We’ve always known he would; the challenges, though, are far from over, but every meaningful reform must navigate its own labyrinth of challenges. Yet the administration’s trajectory remains steadfast, its achievements too palpable to dismiss even to the staunch critics. It would be germane to etch in our minds that history, that impartial arbiter of leadership, may ultimately remember this administration as one that rekindled the state’s agricultural zenith and restored dignity to farming for generations to come.
Sani Abdulrazak, PhD, is a writer, researcher and public affairs analyst based in Zaria, Kaduna State
Feature/OPED
The Role of the Stock Market in Nation Building: Imperatives for an Inclusive Capital Economy
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s stock market has crossed a milestone that demands attention. With total market capitalisation reaching N151.327 trillion as at June 2026, the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) has not only consolidated its position as Africa’s second-largest bourse, but it has also demonstrated something more consequential: that domestic capital, when properly mobilised, is a credible engine of national development.
Nation building is rarely a singular act. It accumulates through institutions that function, capital that circulates, and citizens who believe the system works for them. Few institutions make that case as visibly as a thriving stock exchange. The market is no longer just a barometer of investor sentiment. It is an active participant in Nigeria’s development.
The quality of any capital market ultimately reflects the quality of the companies it hosts. Markets create national wealth most effectively when they provide long-term capital to productive enterprises that expand industrial capacity, create jobs, deepen local supply chains and generate enduring shareholder value.
Earlier in the year, President Bola Tinubu had commended the NGX Group, corporate Nigeria, market operators and investors for propelling NGX past the historic N100trn market capitalisation mark, describing the milestone as a strong indicator of renewed investor confidence and economic recovery.
He said: “The Nigerian capital market stands at the heart of our ambition to build a one-trillion-dollar economy. It is the engine through which long-term finance must be mobilised to power critical sectors – from infrastructure to housing, technology, energy and industrial growth.”
Nigeria has increasingly demonstrated this through home-grown corporate champions such as the Dangote Group, whose decades-long investments across strategic sectors illustrate how patient enterprise-building and capital market development can reinforce one another. Strong companies strengthen strong markets, and strong markets, in turn, provide the capital needed to build even stronger companies.
But numbers, however impressive, are only part of the story. The more compelling narrative lies in who is now participating and how. The explosion in retail participation over the past two years is inseparable from digital infrastructure.
Data by the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) shows 151,749 new brokerage accounts were opened in just the first five months of 2025. Between 2019 and November 2025, over 2.1 million new retail investment accounts were established, the strongest growth in seven years. This is not incidental. It is the direct result of deliberate technological positioning by market operators and regulators, and one of the more underappreciated contributions to national economic inclusion, the companies on the stock market.
Nigeria’s investing demographic is shifting, and the market must shift with it. A largely young, mobile-first population does not respond to traditional channels. They discover financial products on social media, transact via apps, and make decisions based on peer influence as much as professional advice. The 56 per cent year-on-year increase in retail equity investment to N981 billion in the first seven months of 2025 reflects this generational pivot.
Yet gaps remain. Women, smallholder entrepreneurs and low-income earners across tier-2 and tier-3 cities are underrepresented. Instruments like the Federal Government Savings Bond, accessible from as little as N5,000, demonstrate that appetite exists beyond the traditional investor class. The challenge now is sustained financial literacy, culturally relevant messaging, and last-mile digital infrastructure that meets these segments where they are. Broadening that base is not just good market development; it is nation-building in its most practical form.
Sustaining confidence in the capital market requires a functioning compact between four critical actors. Regulators must maintain the credibility they have worked on to rebuild. Reforms, including foreign exchange unification, banking recapitalisation, and NGX demutualisation, have restored institutional trust. That momentum cannot be squandered.
Financial institutions must do more than offer products; they must offer pathways. Education, simplified onboarding, and genuinely accessible advisory services are not optional add-ons. They are the infrastructure of a participatory economy.
Listed companies have a responsibility that extends beyond quarterly earnings. They must consistently demonstrate transparency, sound corporate governance, operational excellence and long-term value creation. Companies that invest patiently in productive assets while rewarding shareholders over time help deepen confidence in the market and encourage wider public participation. The experience of leading Nigerian enterprises, including companies within the Dangote Group, shows that sustained investment in the real economy can simultaneously create industrial capacity, support national development and deliver enduring value to investors.
At $117 billion, NGX’s capitalisation represents only about 35 per cent of GDP. Mature markets typically exceed 100 per cent. Closing that gap will require more quality listings, particularly from the productive sectors of the economy, where long-term capital can translate into long-term national growth.
Finally, technology providers must treat financial inclusion as a design constraint, not an afterthought. Connectivity gaps, low digital literacy, and transactional friction are not user problems. They are product problems.
Domestic investors now account for 77.79 per cent of total market activity, a structural shift that makes the market less exposed to global sentiment swings and more reflective of domestic economic conviction. That is a nation beginning to fund its own future.
As Nigeria seeks to build a more inclusive capital economy, the objective should not simply be to increase the number of investors. It should be to increase the number of successful Nigerian businesses capable of attracting long-term investment. Every globally competitive indigenous company that chooses transparency, governance and broad-based ownership strengthens both the capital market and the country’s economic resilience. The relationship is mutually reinforcing: vibrant companies deepen the market, while a vibrant market empowers the next generation of national champions.
The foundation exists. What comes next depends on whether all stakeholders can sustain the coordination that has made this growth possible and go further. A participatory capital economy is not an aspirational language. In Nigeria today, it is an unfinished project moving steadily in the right direction.
