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Economic Implications of Introduction of New Naira Notes in Nigeria

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By Otori Emmanuel

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Godwin Emefiele, has issued a statement concerning the institution’s policy to introduce redesigned naira notes by the 15th of December 2022.

This, he said, is a result of the continuous rise in the inability of banks to control the circulation of Nigeria’s naira notes, which poses as incompetence on the side of the banking sector as well as a causative factor to why the naira keeps decreasing in value.

Mr Emeliefe mentioned that, amongst the many other reasons behind this new policy, the mass hoarding of banknotes by members of the public and an increasing shortage of banknotes that are standard and clean, which has heightened the ease in the production of counterfeit currencies in the country are notable reasons for this development.

Although this new policy has been revolted by some top personalities in the country, including the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, saying that she and the ministry were not aware of any plan by the CBN to redesign new banknotes and also complained that it is ill-timed, however, the President has given his support for the plan.

This move by the CBN has been viewed by many to be political, while the institution and others are seeing it from an economic point of view. But the CBN has said that the redesign only applies to denotations like the N200, N500 and N1000 notes. The banknotes (old ones) in circulation now are expected to be submitted to the banks on or before the 31st of January 2023, as after this date, they will be treated as expired currency.

Political Implications of Redesigning the Naira Notes

Just as the 2023 general election is around the corner, this new policy of the CBN seems to be politically motivated. But on the other hand, certain financial and political analysts have come out to say that this move would disrupt the plan of some political parties to use cash stored in different individual vaults in the country to buy votes.

Statistics of the banks have it that over 80% of the nation’s currency is stored in private vaults by corrupt politicians who are involved in one crime or the other and who wouldn’t be able to defend the source of such huge funds if brought to the bank.

This group applauds the CBN for coming up with such a strong plan at such a strategic season in the country when new leaders are selected. This policy, if successful, is likely to guarantee a bribery-free election by 2023, where voters and agencies would not be offered money to vote candidates into power.

Economic Implications of The New Naira Notes

For the banking sector, which has reportedly lost control of over 80% of the money in circulation, it will help them regain it. Mr Emefiele said that, as of September 2022, the CBN had released N3.23 trillion, and N2.73 trillion is said to be outside the bank vault.

This development is a negative one for the banking sector as it weakens her monetary policy. If control is regained, it will go a long way to help curb the inflation rate, which is currently over 20%. Although, between the time of launching the new note, which is the 15th of December, and the expiry date for the old one, after the 31st of January, there is likely going to be a lot of money in circulation when those who hoard money will be forced to spend them on purchasing, and some would also exchange theirs to foreign currency. When this happens, the naira is likely to fall the most, but however, with time, when the CBN takes back control of the money in circulation, the economy will smile again. Some persons have also expressed concerns about the cost of printing this new currency, going by what it cost them to print the ones printed in 2020. Questions have been asked if this is really a good time to do this, considering the various crises surrounding the nation’s economy, including the debt crisis, poor revenue, underfunded government projects, etc.

On average, an alarm has also been raised concerning the effect of this on the price of commodities in the market, especially now that the festive period is around the corner. People are worried and pleading that adjustments are made, or other measures are taken to achieve the same thing other than totally clearing the old currency within such a short time and notice.

In conclusion, there is a need to grow and stabilize the nation’s economy and the even distribution of money, properly monitored by our Central Bank, would play a significant role in achieving this. A policy is to make the life of the people and not worsen it. There is a need for the CBN to take into consideration the plea of the average Nigerian for this new innovation, although Nigerians have over the years grown hard-skin to circumstances, and if swallowing one more pill of suffering during this short time would guarantee a better future, we might as well take it in with a smiling face.

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The Future of Payments: Key Trends to Watch in 2025

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Luke Kyohere

By Luke Kyohere

The global payments landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation. New technologies coupled with the rising demand for seamless, secure, and efficient transactions has spurred on an exciting new era of innovation and growth. With 2025 fast approaching, here are important trends that will shape the future of payments:

1. The rise of real-time payments

Until recently, real-time payments have been used in Africa for cross-border mobile money payments, but less so for traditional payments. We are seeing companies like Mastercard investing in this area, as well as central banks in Africa putting focus on this. 

2. Cashless payments will increase

In 2025, we will see the continued acceleration of cashless payments across Africa. B2B payments in particular will also increase. Digital payments began between individuals but are now becoming commonplace for larger corporate transactions. 

3. Digital currency will hit mainstream

In the cryptocurrency space, we will see an increase in the use of stablecoins like United States Digital Currency (USDC) and Tether (USDT) which are linked to US dollars. These will come to replace traditional cryptocurrencies as their price point is more stable. This year, many countries will begin preparing for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), government-backed digital currencies which use blockchain. 

The increased uptake of digital currencies reflects the maturity of distributed ledger technology and improved API availability. 

4. Increased government oversight

As adoption of digital currencies will increase, governments will also put more focus into monitoring these flows. In particular, this will centre on companies and banks rather than individuals. The goal of this will be to control and occasionally curb runaway foreign exchange (FX) rates.

5. Business leaders buy into AI technology

In 2025, we will see many business leaders buying into AI through respected providers relying on well-researched platforms and huge data sets. Most companies don’t have the budget to invest in their own research and development in AI, so many are now opting to ‘buy’ into the technology rather than ‘build’ it themselves. Moreover, many businesses are concerned about the risks associated with data ownership and accuracy so buying software is another way to avoid this risk. 

6. Continued AI Adoption in Payments

In payments, the proliferation of AI will continue to improve user experience and increase security.  To detect fraud, AI is used to track patterns and payment flows in real-time. If unusual activity is detected, the technology can be used to flag or even block payments which may be fraudulent. 

When it comes to user experience, we will also see AI being used to improve the interface design of payment platforms. The technology will also increasingly be used for translation for international payment platforms.

7. Rise of Super Apps

To get more from their platforms, mobile network operators are building comprehensive service platforms, integrating multiple payment experiences into a single app. This reflects the shift of many users moving from text-based services to mobile apps. Rather than offering a single service, super apps are packing many other services into a single app. For example, apps which may have previously been used primarily for lending, now have options for saving and paying bills. 

8. Business strategy shift

Recent major technological changes will force business leaders to focus on much shorter prediction and reaction cycles. Because the rate of change has been unprecedented in the past year, this will force decision-makers to adapt quickly, be decisive and nimble. 

As the payments space evolves,  businesses, banks, and governments must continually embrace innovation, collaboration, and prioritise customer needs. These efforts build a more inclusive, secure, and efficient payment system that supports local to global economic growth – enabling true financial inclusion across borders.

Luke Kyohere is the Group Chief Product and Innovation Officer at Onafriq

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Ghana’s Democratic Triumph: A Call to Action for Nigeria’s 2027 Elections

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In a heartfelt statement released today, the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) has extended its warmest congratulations to Ghana’s President-Elect, emphasizing the importance of learning from Ghana’s recent electoral success as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections.

In a statement signed by its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Comrade James Ezema, the CNPP highlighted the need for Nigeria to reclaim its status as a leader in democratic governance in Africa.

“The recent victory of Ghana’s President-Elect is a testament to the maturity and resilience of Ghana’s democracy,” the CNPP stated. “As we celebrate this achievement, we must reflect on the lessons that Nigeria can learn from our West African neighbour.”

The CNPP’s message underscored the significance of free, fair, and credible elections, a standard that Ghana has set and one that Nigeria has previously achieved under former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. “It is high time for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a beacon of democracy in Africa,” the CNPP asserted, calling for a renewed commitment to the electoral process.

Central to CNPP’s message is the insistence that “the will of the people must be supreme in Nigeria’s electoral processes.” The umbrella body of all registered political parties and political associations in Nigeria CNPP emphasized the necessity of an electoral system that genuinely reflects the wishes of the Nigerian populace. “We must strive to create an environment where elections are free from manipulation, violence, and intimidation,” the CNPP urged, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to take decisive action to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.

The CNPP also expressed concern over premature declarations regarding the 2027 elections, stating, “It is disheartening to note that some individuals are already announcing that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. This kind of statement not only undermines the democratic principles that our nation holds dear but also distracts from the pressing need for the current administration to earn the trust of the electorate.”

The CNPP viewed the upcoming elections as a pivotal moment for Nigeria. “The 2027 general elections present a unique opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a leader in democratic governance in Africa,” it remarked. The body called on all stakeholders — including the executive, legislature, judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society organisations — to collaborate in ensuring that elections are transparent, credible, and reflective of the will of the Nigerian people.

As the most populous African country prepares for the 2027 elections, the CNPP urged all Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to democratic principles. “We must work together to ensure that our elections are free from violence, intimidation, and manipulation,” the statement stated, reaffirming the CNPP’s commitment to promoting a peaceful and credible electoral process.

In conclusion, the CNPP congratulated the President-Elect of Ghana and the Ghanaian people on their remarkable achievements.

“We look forward to learning from their experience and working together to strengthen democracy in our region,” the CNPP concluded.

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The Need to Promote Equality, Equity and Fairness in Nigeria’s Proposed Tax Reforms

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By Kenechukwu Aguolu

The proposed tax reform, involving four tax bills introduced by the Federal Government, has received significant criticism. Notably, it was rejected by the Governors’ Forum but was still forwarded to the National Assembly. Unlike the various bold economic decisions made by this government, concessions will likely need to be made on these tax reforms, which involve legislative amendments and therefore cannot be imposed by the executive. This article highlights the purposes of taxation, the qualities of a good tax system, and some of the implications of the proposed tax reforms.

One of the major purposes of taxation is to generate revenue for the government to finance its activities. A good tax system should raise sufficient revenue for the government to fund its operations, and support economic and infrastructural development. For any country to achieve meaningful progress, its tax-to-GDP ratio should be at least 15%. Currently, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 11%. The proposed tax reforms aim to increase this ratio to 18% within the next three years.

A good tax system should also promote income redistribution and equality by implementing progressive tax policies. In line with this, the proposed tax reforms favour low-income earners. For example, individuals earning less than one million naira annually are exempted from personal income tax. Additionally, essential goods and services such as food, accommodation, and transportation, which constitute a significant portion of household consumption for low- and middle-income groups, are to be exempted from VAT.

In addition to equality, a good tax system should ensure equity and fairness, a key area of contention surrounding the proposed reforms. If implemented, the amendments to the Value Added Tax could lead to a significant reduction in the federal allocation for some states; impairing their ability to finance government operations and development projects. The VAT amendments should be holistically revisited to promote fairness and national unity.

The establishment of a single agency to collect government taxes, the Nigeria Revenue Service, could reduce loopholes that have previously resulted in revenue losses, provided proper controls are put in place. It is logically easier to monitor revenue collection by one agency than by multiple agencies. However, this is not a magical solution. With automation, revenue collection can be seamless whether it is managed by one agency or several, as long as monitoring and accountability measures are implemented effectively.

The proposed tax reforms by the Federal Government are well-intentioned. However, all concerns raised by Nigerians should be looked into, and concessions should be made where necessary. Policies are more effective when they are adapted to suit the unique characteristics of a nation, rather than adopted wholesale. A good tax system should aim to raise sufficient revenue, ensure equitable income distribution, and promote equality, equity, and fairness.

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