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How Inflation is Changing Consumer Behaviour

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Consumer Behaviour

By Timi Olubiyi, PhD

Small businesses and consumer goods firms are facing heavy disruption in their supply chain and operational costs due to inflation, currency risk, removal of fuel subsidies leading to a significant increase in energy costs, and scarcity of foreign exchange (FOREX).

In recent times revenues and business forecasts are set to suffer short-term pressures, declines and low or no profits. Because the Nigerian economy is largely import-driven, the unstable foreign exchange rate continues to generate higher import bills for many of these companies.

Consequently, this results in a significant rise in the expenses associated with production and manufacturing in the country, and we have noticed the ongoing constraints on consumer spending and business continuity amidst the rising inflation.

Apart from the challenges above, power, restocking cost, and transportation are among other key factors contributing to the high expenses incurred by all forms of businesses in the country, be it micro, small or big companies at this time.

In fact, small businesses are struggling, and many are on the brink of collapse. Even big companies such as Nigerian Breweries have posted losses and released their audited results for the period ended December 31, 2023, revealing a net loss of N106 billion during the year, largely induced by the impact of the devaluation of the naira on its foreign exchange transactions.

Multinational companies in the country, such as GlaxoSmithKline Plc, Nestle MTN, and Unilever, are also posting losses, and the list of these companies reporting losses continues to grow. These companies may be unable to pay year 2023 dividends to their shareholders based on this status, which is a concern.

If these challenges persist, many of these multinational companies will hold extremely high foreign-currency-denominated debts, which may significantly strain their business continuity and job security for the teeming employees. Because inflation is still rising, new price levels and the high cost of producing goods and services have continued to be the trend.

Due to this inflation, purchasing power is weakening and the ability to buy goods and services has significantly decreased. Nigeria’s headline inflation has reached its highest levels in over 18 years at 29.90 per cent in January 2024, according to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

But the real inflation rate in the country occasioned by the food inflation could be well above that. The upward trend in the prices of basic food items continues to disrupt the spending pattern of consumers and citizenry, and individuals are refraining from spending on other households’ needs, products and services. Consumption and spending are currently weak in the country, which should ordinarily be the economy’s primary driver.

Therefore, to stem the current tides, companies may need to adopt strategic measures to cushion the effect of these challenges, particularly the volatile foreign exchange and harsh business environment.

One key way of managing businesses at this time is through cost-saving measures, and one of them is through technology adoption, particularly for service-oriented businesses. Business survival and continuity at this time depend largely on the ability to manage operational costs. If operational cost continues to increase and these businesses cannot transfer these costs to the customers, the businesses will be at risk and in a vulnerable position.

The use of technology may be helpful at this time because it will allow the automation of common processes in business, such as distribution, sales, after-sales service, and inventory management. The marketplace for business transactions will be extended beyond traditional boundaries with the adoption of technology through e-commerce.

The necessary shopping, bargaining, and transactions can take place anywhere, and businesses can be accessible everywhere and anywhere in Nigeria with the adoption.

This strategy’s adoption will provide customer convenience that will enhance and reduce shopping costs. Transactional and operational costs of online transactions are lower; therefore, business operators can showcase, transact and sell anything, even perishable items, such as fresh tomatoes, chicken, and so on these platforms.

In essence, it will reduce huge transportation costs, and e-commerce will provide the platform for businesses, irrespective of their size or number of employees, to thrive beyond borders and geographical location and build reputations. If a country has businesses that produce goods and services that can be sold in the international market, then there is a great likelihood that its currency will be strong.

Companies should strive to achieve this at this time and connect with their high-net-worth customers and business partners promptly and efficiently nationwide and internationally.

Commercial activities are aided faster online, and effective usage of e-commerce can provide this. Likewise, it is convenient for clients to transact online because it will save them the stress of transportation and other logistic cost. By adopting e-commerce, businesses benefit from increased revenues and sales, improved market reach, access to new markets globally and cost savings on marketing and communication expenditures.

Therefore, the ability to quickly and flexibly incorporate new strategies such as e-commerce will set business operators apart during this period, including young entrepreneurs, women in business, agriculturalists, manufacturers and business executives. It will change shopping and consumer behaviour.

How may you obtain advice or further information on the article? 

Dr Timi Olubiyi is an Entrepreneurship & Business Management expert with a PhD in Business Administration from Babcock University, Nigeria. He is a prolific investment coach, adviser, author, seasoned scholar, Member of the Institute of Directors, Chartered Member of the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI), and Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) registered capital market operator. He can be reached on the Twitter handle @drtimiolubiyi and via email at [email protected], for any questions, reactions, and comments. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author- Dr Timi Olubiyi and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of others.

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The Future of Payments: Key Trends to Watch in 2025

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Luke Kyohere

By Luke Kyohere

The global payments landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation. New technologies coupled with the rising demand for seamless, secure, and efficient transactions has spurred on an exciting new era of innovation and growth. With 2025 fast approaching, here are important trends that will shape the future of payments:

1. The rise of real-time payments

Until recently, real-time payments have been used in Africa for cross-border mobile money payments, but less so for traditional payments. We are seeing companies like Mastercard investing in this area, as well as central banks in Africa putting focus on this. 

2. Cashless payments will increase

In 2025, we will see the continued acceleration of cashless payments across Africa. B2B payments in particular will also increase. Digital payments began between individuals but are now becoming commonplace for larger corporate transactions. 

3. Digital currency will hit mainstream

In the cryptocurrency space, we will see an increase in the use of stablecoins like United States Digital Currency (USDC) and Tether (USDT) which are linked to US dollars. These will come to replace traditional cryptocurrencies as their price point is more stable. This year, many countries will begin preparing for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), government-backed digital currencies which use blockchain. 

The increased uptake of digital currencies reflects the maturity of distributed ledger technology and improved API availability. 

4. Increased government oversight

As adoption of digital currencies will increase, governments will also put more focus into monitoring these flows. In particular, this will centre on companies and banks rather than individuals. The goal of this will be to control and occasionally curb runaway foreign exchange (FX) rates.

5. Business leaders buy into AI technology

In 2025, we will see many business leaders buying into AI through respected providers relying on well-researched platforms and huge data sets. Most companies don’t have the budget to invest in their own research and development in AI, so many are now opting to ‘buy’ into the technology rather than ‘build’ it themselves. Moreover, many businesses are concerned about the risks associated with data ownership and accuracy so buying software is another way to avoid this risk. 

6. Continued AI Adoption in Payments

In payments, the proliferation of AI will continue to improve user experience and increase security.  To detect fraud, AI is used to track patterns and payment flows in real-time. If unusual activity is detected, the technology can be used to flag or even block payments which may be fraudulent. 

When it comes to user experience, we will also see AI being used to improve the interface design of payment platforms. The technology will also increasingly be used for translation for international payment platforms.

7. Rise of Super Apps

To get more from their platforms, mobile network operators are building comprehensive service platforms, integrating multiple payment experiences into a single app. This reflects the shift of many users moving from text-based services to mobile apps. Rather than offering a single service, super apps are packing many other services into a single app. For example, apps which may have previously been used primarily for lending, now have options for saving and paying bills. 

8. Business strategy shift

Recent major technological changes will force business leaders to focus on much shorter prediction and reaction cycles. Because the rate of change has been unprecedented in the past year, this will force decision-makers to adapt quickly, be decisive and nimble. 

As the payments space evolves,  businesses, banks, and governments must continually embrace innovation, collaboration, and prioritise customer needs. These efforts build a more inclusive, secure, and efficient payment system that supports local to global economic growth – enabling true financial inclusion across borders.

Luke Kyohere is the Group Chief Product and Innovation Officer at Onafriq

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Ghana’s Democratic Triumph: A Call to Action for Nigeria’s 2027 Elections

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ghana election 2024

In a heartfelt statement released today, the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) has extended its warmest congratulations to Ghana’s President-Elect, emphasizing the importance of learning from Ghana’s recent electoral success as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections.

In a statement signed by its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Comrade James Ezema, the CNPP highlighted the need for Nigeria to reclaim its status as a leader in democratic governance in Africa.

“The recent victory of Ghana’s President-Elect is a testament to the maturity and resilience of Ghana’s democracy,” the CNPP stated. “As we celebrate this achievement, we must reflect on the lessons that Nigeria can learn from our West African neighbour.”

The CNPP’s message underscored the significance of free, fair, and credible elections, a standard that Ghana has set and one that Nigeria has previously achieved under former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. “It is high time for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a beacon of democracy in Africa,” the CNPP asserted, calling for a renewed commitment to the electoral process.

Central to CNPP’s message is the insistence that “the will of the people must be supreme in Nigeria’s electoral processes.” The umbrella body of all registered political parties and political associations in Nigeria CNPP emphasized the necessity of an electoral system that genuinely reflects the wishes of the Nigerian populace. “We must strive to create an environment where elections are free from manipulation, violence, and intimidation,” the CNPP urged, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to take decisive action to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.

The CNPP also expressed concern over premature declarations regarding the 2027 elections, stating, “It is disheartening to note that some individuals are already announcing that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. This kind of statement not only undermines the democratic principles that our nation holds dear but also distracts from the pressing need for the current administration to earn the trust of the electorate.”

The CNPP viewed the upcoming elections as a pivotal moment for Nigeria. “The 2027 general elections present a unique opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a leader in democratic governance in Africa,” it remarked. The body called on all stakeholders — including the executive, legislature, judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society organisations — to collaborate in ensuring that elections are transparent, credible, and reflective of the will of the Nigerian people.

As the most populous African country prepares for the 2027 elections, the CNPP urged all Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to democratic principles. “We must work together to ensure that our elections are free from violence, intimidation, and manipulation,” the statement stated, reaffirming the CNPP’s commitment to promoting a peaceful and credible electoral process.

In conclusion, the CNPP congratulated the President-Elect of Ghana and the Ghanaian people on their remarkable achievements.

“We look forward to learning from their experience and working together to strengthen democracy in our region,” the CNPP concluded.

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The Need to Promote Equality, Equity and Fairness in Nigeria’s Proposed Tax Reforms

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tax reform recommendations

By Kenechukwu Aguolu

The proposed tax reform, involving four tax bills introduced by the Federal Government, has received significant criticism. Notably, it was rejected by the Governors’ Forum but was still forwarded to the National Assembly. Unlike the various bold economic decisions made by this government, concessions will likely need to be made on these tax reforms, which involve legislative amendments and therefore cannot be imposed by the executive. This article highlights the purposes of taxation, the qualities of a good tax system, and some of the implications of the proposed tax reforms.

One of the major purposes of taxation is to generate revenue for the government to finance its activities. A good tax system should raise sufficient revenue for the government to fund its operations, and support economic and infrastructural development. For any country to achieve meaningful progress, its tax-to-GDP ratio should be at least 15%. Currently, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 11%. The proposed tax reforms aim to increase this ratio to 18% within the next three years.

A good tax system should also promote income redistribution and equality by implementing progressive tax policies. In line with this, the proposed tax reforms favour low-income earners. For example, individuals earning less than one million naira annually are exempted from personal income tax. Additionally, essential goods and services such as food, accommodation, and transportation, which constitute a significant portion of household consumption for low- and middle-income groups, are to be exempted from VAT.

In addition to equality, a good tax system should ensure equity and fairness, a key area of contention surrounding the proposed reforms. If implemented, the amendments to the Value Added Tax could lead to a significant reduction in the federal allocation for some states; impairing their ability to finance government operations and development projects. The VAT amendments should be holistically revisited to promote fairness and national unity.

The establishment of a single agency to collect government taxes, the Nigeria Revenue Service, could reduce loopholes that have previously resulted in revenue losses, provided proper controls are put in place. It is logically easier to monitor revenue collection by one agency than by multiple agencies. However, this is not a magical solution. With automation, revenue collection can be seamless whether it is managed by one agency or several, as long as monitoring and accountability measures are implemented effectively.

The proposed tax reforms by the Federal Government are well-intentioned. However, all concerns raised by Nigerians should be looked into, and concessions should be made where necessary. Policies are more effective when they are adapted to suit the unique characteristics of a nation, rather than adopted wholesale. A good tax system should aim to raise sufficient revenue, ensure equitable income distribution, and promote equality, equity, and fairness.

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