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How Nigeria, Other African Countries Can Forge an Inclusive Economic Recovery

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Tolu Oyekan Inclusive Economic Recovery

By Tolu Oyekan

As of this writing, the spread of COVID-19 in many African countries has been more contained, and the death toll lower, than some had expected in 2020.

The economic fallout of the pandemic for Africans, however, will be different and could be direr than for the rest of the world.

Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for more than half of the world’s populations living at or below the poverty line. A recent World Bank scenario estimates that COVID-19 could push up to 40 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa into extreme poverty, seriously eroding the progress that African countries have made to reduce deprivation during the past two decades.

When the pandemic was declared in April 2020, BCG counselled African governments to develop comprehensive plans in response to the health care crisis and take on broader economic and societal challenges.

We continue to believe that the best course for African leaders is to accelerate economic policy reforms and investments that accentuate inclusion and position countries for a stronger post-pandemic recovery.

Indeed, Africa’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis depends on how effectively governments will be able to balance urgent actions to stabilize economies with the structural reforms needed to stimulate sustainable economic development initiatives. An inclusive approach to economic recovery can protect the most vulnerable populations in the short term and improve their prospects in the long term. Select initiatives in Nigeria present a case in point.

The Pandemic’s Economic Fallout in Nigeria

Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa and one of four African countries included on BCG’s Middle Billion list of rapidly transforming developing countries where local entrepreneurs attract global investment, especially in emerging tech-driven industries.

Yet, almost 83 million people—40% of the country’s population—live below the country’s poverty line of $381.75 per household, per year, according to the 2018–2019 living standards survey by Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

World Bank 2021 projections for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole warn of protracted economic flux throughout the year. Even with a modest rebound from recession, there is a risk that a steep drop in per capita income could push tens of millions more people into poverty.

South Africa and Nigeria, the continent’s most populous country, face the most severe setbacks, according to the projections. Lower oil prices, combined with pandemic-related factors, add to the strains on Nigeria’s economy and the risks for its most vulnerable citizens.

These concerns prompted the Nigerian government to undertake a wide range of activities to stimulate economic growth with a focus on economic inclusion. Specifically, Nigeria aims to leverage public-private partnerships to create economic opportunities for marginalized populations.

In June 2020, Nigeria’s government revised its economic sustainability plan to double down on stimulus investments and policy interventions in order to revive the growth of bedrock industries (such as oil, tourism, and aviation), and accelerate growth in emerging businesses in other industries (such as small and midsize enterprises and alternative energy) that promote economic inclusion and opportunity.

Specifically, the government is focusing on expanding mobile smartphone service, digital financial services, and home-based solar electricity for low-income households.

Mobile Money and Telcos Connect

Using cash and paying bills in person have historically been the norm, especially among the unbanked populations. This has changed since COVID-19. From the early days of the pandemic, leading contactless payment startups in Nigeria launched initiatives to encourage consumers and merchants to sign up for their services. As BCG has written, financial institutions in Africa were the first to introduce mobile payments.

In Nigeria, the push for cashless transactions has prompted mobile money providers to leverage the networks of telecommunications companies in order to sign up mobile money customers. This is important because most poor Nigerians own a cell phone, but they don’t have a bank account.

The percentage of the adult population with access to financial services in Nigeria grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% from 2008 to 2012 but by only 1% from 2012 to 2018, according to an annual survey by Enhancing Financial Innovation & Access, a financial-sector development organization. This low rate persisted despite meaningful reforms implemented by the Nigerian government before the pandemic to accelerate financial inclusion.

In 2018, for example, the government issued payment services guidelines for financial service providers and telcos seeking to expand their customer bases among the unbanked, especially in rural areas. However, it took some time for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to issue the licenses that telcos need to operate as a payment service bank (PSB).

In August 2020, the CBN licensed three new PSBs, which can now offer high-volume, low-value digital transaction services, such as remittances, microsavings accounts, and withdrawals. Extending the reach of mobile banking services to rural unbanked populations could also allow the government to deliver social welfare benefits directly to those citizens’ bank accounts.

Pay-as-You-Go Solar Service

The Nigerian government is aiming to install new home solar power systems and mini-grids for 5 million low-income households by the end of 2023.

Many of those households—which either rely on small, inefficient generators for electricity or have no power source at all—will need to use PAYGo, an instalment financing option offered with mobile money bank accounts, to purchase the installation kits for these systems. Customers with an existing mobile money account may apply and qualify for a PAYGo loan more easily than others.

Our analysis shows that a PAYGo loan would make solar kits affordable for about half of the 31 million households that do not have reliable electricity and may also be considered to be in a low-income bracket.

What’s more, we found that 3.2 million out of 17 million households currently using kerosene and candles as their lighting source could afford the monthly PAYGo payments based on their current spending on lighting, plus about 10% of their nonfood budget.

We expect that the scaling of mobile money accounts, along with home solar power kits financed with instalment loans, will have a sustained economic impact on low-income populations well beyond any 2021 recovery.

A recent USAID research brief estimates that 15% to 30% of PAYGo solar customers will create a credit history for the first time when they purchase a solar home system with a PAYGo plan. That credit history could, in turn, lead to other loans for large expenses, such as school fees, which can consume up to 40% of a family’s annual income. Credit histories are also a critical driver of growth for small-business enterprises and first-time business entrepreneurs.

The USAID brief also noted advantages for providers: PAYGo solar customers generate more than twice as much revenue per user for a mobile money provider than the average customer.

A Stronger Recovery and Future

While increases in poverty and economic inequality are possible, they are not inevitable. As we see it, the economic hardships caused by the pandemic give governments a chance to examine the strengths and shortcomings of past policies and strategies and address the current structural inequities in their economies.

Linking economic inclusion initiatives across several industries could also have positive, and enduring multiplier effects. Time will tell whether Nigeria’s inclusive recovery plans succeed. All African governments, and the policymakers who are working with them, must look beyond the crisis to ensure that the resources deployed today build a better foundation to achieve a more equitable future.

Tolu Oyekan is a partner in BCG’s Lagos office. He leads the firm’s work on total societal impact across West Africa and is a core member of BCG’s Corporate Finance & Strategy practice

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Nigeria’s Bold Strides Towards a Sustainable Future

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Alex Oware YP4T

By Alex Oware

President Bola Tinubu has firmly established Nigeria as a proactive and visionary leader in the global pursuit of climate action and sustainable development. Recognising that environmental stewardship is intrinsically linked to economic prosperity, his administration has moved beyond viewing climate change as a mere ecological concern, positioning it instead as a pivotal economic opportunity ripe for exploration and investment.

President Tinubu’s emphatic pronouncements at the 2025 Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week and during a high-level virtual dialogue underscored Nigeria’s unwavering commitment to international collaboration, emphasising the critical need for a unified global response to the escalating climate crisis. He astutely highlighted that the realisation of a truly sustainable future necessitates robust global interconnectedness and a shared sense of responsibility amongst all nations.

Nigeria’s comprehensive strategy for tackling the multifaceted challenges of climate change rests upon three fundamental pillars: a decisive shift towards clean energy transition, the building of robust climate resilience, and an overarching commitment to sustainable development. To translate these core principles into tangible realities, the current administration is actively implementing a range of key initiatives designed to wean the nation off its reliance on traditional fossil fuels.

A significant aspect of this endeavor involves the substantial expansion of infrastructure to support the widespread adoption of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and electric vehicles. Simultaneously, the government is strategically focusing on harnessing Nigeria’s abundant solid mineral resources to provide crucial materials for the burgeoning green energy sector.

Complementing these efforts are the implementation of climate-smart agricultural practices, aimed at simultaneously enhancing national food security and minimising detrimental environmental impacts.

Furthermore, the newly introduced National Clean Cooking Policy seeks to promote clean energy solutions at the household level, promising significant environmental, health, and socio-economic benefits for Nigerian citizens.

These ambitious endeavors are meticulously designed to deliver palpable value and positive impact directly to the lives of Nigerians. The diversification of energy sources holds the promise of cleaner air and a significantly healthier environment for communities across the nation.

The active promotion of CNG as a viable alternative fuel is strategically aimed at mitigating the economic and social hardships that have arisen from the removal of fuel subsidies, offering a more affordable and sustainable energy option for transportation and domestic use. The widespread adoption of climate-smart agriculture is paramount for bolstering food security, ensuring a stable and reliable food supply, and safeguarding vulnerable local communities from the increasingly severe adverse effects of climate change, such as droughts and floods.

Moreover, the deliberate expansion of the green energy sector is projected to generate a wealth of new employment opportunities and empower local entrepreneurs, particularly in rural communities that are gaining access to reliable and sustainable electricity for the first time.

In a demonstrably bold move that underscores the administration’s commitment to these overarching goals, President Tinubu’s government has put forward a significant N10 billion solar power project specifically for the Aso Rock Presidential Villa. This ambitious initiative is presented as a crucial step towards establishing a more sustainable and dependable energy future for the entire nation, starting from the highest levels of governance.

Proponents of the project persuasively argue that it aligns seamlessly with global best practices, drawing parallels with the increasing adoption of solar energy in key government institutions worldwide. The Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN) has vigorously defended the project, asserting that it is fully in line with President Tinubu’s broader reforms aimed at fundamentally transforming Nigeria’s energy landscape and decisively tackling the persistent and crippling energy debt crisis.

The ECN further emphasises that solar energy offers inherent efficiency, provides a crucial shield for Nigerians against the volatility of rising tariffs on conventional energy sources, and has the potential to significantly ease the immense pressure currently burdening the national electricity grid.

While the project has understandably sparked public debate and scrutiny regarding its substantial cost and prioritisation in the face of other pressing national needs, the government strategically positions it as an innovative approach that demonstrates leadership by example and a profound commitment to integrating clean energy solutions at the very apex of Nigerian governance.

Beyond these crucial domestic initiatives, President Tinubu has actively and strategically sought robust international collaboration and support for Africa’s complex transition towards a green economy, fully acknowledging that the necessary investments are inherently capital-intensive.

Nigeria has already demonstrated commendable leadership on the continental stage by being the first African nation to successfully launch Sovereign Green Bonds, specifically designed to finance environmentally sustainable projects across various sectors.

Furthermore, the country is actively in the process of developing a comprehensive Global Climate Change Investment Fund, with the primary aim of attracting substantial further investment in critical green infrastructure and innovative clean energy initiatives.

Nigeria remains steadfast in its commitment to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the ambitious target year of 2060 and is actively engaged in the crucial process of updating its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the esteemed UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

The recent finalisation of the Nigeria Carbon Market Activation Policy in March 2025 is projected to unlock a substantial potential of up to $2.5 billion in valuable carbon credit investments by the pivotal year of 2030. This influx of capital is expected to further bolster climate-aligned economic growth and create new avenues for sustainable development.

Moreover, Nigeria is actively collaborating with various United Nations agencies to develop a comprehensive guideline for a just transition towards a fully decarbonised economy. This crucial collaboration ensures that the inevitable shift towards clean energy and climate-resilient solutions is implemented in a manner that leaves no community or economic sector behind, prioritising the creation of green jobs, the development of essential skills, and comprehensive capacity-building initiatives across the nation.

President Tinubu’s overarching strategy underscores a holistic and integrated approach that seamlessly weaves climate action into Nigeria’s broader development agenda, recognising it not as a separate concern but as a fundamental strategic imperative for sustained economic growth and comprehensive national transformation.

By diligently pursuing these comprehensive and interconnected strategies, Nigeria aims not only to effectively address the urgent and pressing challenges posed by climate change but also to unlock significant and lasting economic and social benefits for all its citizens, paving a clear and sustainable pathway towards a resilient, equitable, and prosperous future for generations to come.

Alex Oware is the Regional Director for YP4T

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Navigating the Maze: Solutions for Nigeria’s Flourishing Foodtech Industry

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Diana Tenebe food security challenges in Nigeria

By Diana Tenebe

Nigeria’s foodtech sector holds immense promise to transform our nation’s food production, distribution, and consumption systems. However, this burgeoning industry currently navigates a complex maze of challenges that could significantly hinder its progress.

While innovation and entrepreneurial drive are abundant, a confluence of infrastructural deficits, economic headwinds, technological disparities, and logistical complexities casts a shadow on the sector’s long-term viability.

Understanding and addressing these multifaceted hurdles is paramount for foodtech companies aspiring to thrive and contribute meaningfully to Nigeria’s food security.

One of the most significant impediments to the foodtech sector’s advancement is Nigeria’s persistent infrastructural weaknesses. The unreliable power supply, a well-known constraint for businesses nationwide, directly threatens food preservation, increasing spoilage risks and driving up operational costs for companies reliant on refrigeration and consistent processing.

Similarly, the often-deteriorated state of our road networks complicates logistics and transportation, hindering the efficient movement of goods from farms to consumers and across the supply chain.

Furthermore, limited access to clean water exacerbates operational challenges, particularly for maintaining food processing and hygiene standards. Collectively, these infrastructural shortcomings inflate operational expenses and introduce vulnerabilities throughout the food supply chain.

Economic constraints add another layer of intricacy. Fluctuations in currency exchange rates create instability in pricing and procurement, especially for businesses dealing with imported technologies or ingredients. Persistent inflation erodes consumer purchasing power and increases the cost of essential inputs, squeezing profit margins for startups.

Moreover, limited access to credit and investment capital makes it difficult for emerging foodtech companies to secure the necessary funding to invest in crucial technology, infrastructure, and expansion efforts. This financial constraint can stifle innovation and prevent promising ventures from reaching their full potential.

The digital divide also poses a unique challenge for foodtech companies aiming to leverage online platforms and digital solutions. While mobile phone usage is widespread in Nigeria, disparities in digital literacy and access to reliable internet connectivity can restrict the widespread adoption of online food ordering and delivery services, particularly in rural and underserved communities. This necessitates creative and inclusive strategies to bridge the digital gap and reach a broader consumer base.

Inefficiencies within the supply chain represent a critical bottleneck in the Nigerian food system. Fragmented agricultural supply chains, characterised by numerous intermediaries and a lack of transparency, contribute to alarmingly high post-harvest losses.

Inadequate storage facilities and inefficient transportation infrastructure further compound these issues, leading to significant waste and price volatility. Addressing these systemic weaknesses is crucial for ensuring a stable and affordable food supply for all Nigerians.

Navigating Nigeria’s regulatory landscape can also be a daunting task for foodtech businesses. The presence of multiple regulatory agencies, coupled with often bureaucratic and time-consuming processes for obtaining licenses and permits, can create significant hurdles for startups. Clear, consistent, and streamlined processes within the regulatory framework are essential to foster a more enabling environment for innovation and growth.

Building consumer trust and acceptance for new food technologies requires overcoming inherent skepticism and unfamiliarity. Concerns regarding food safety, quality, and the security of online transactions can hinder the adoption of novel food products and digital platforms. Transparent communication, robust quality control measures, and consistent consumer engagement are vital for building confidence and fostering widespread acceptance.

Finally, a notable talent gap exists within the Nigerian foodtech ecosystem. A shortage of professionals possessing specialised skills in food science, technology, business management, and logistics can limit the growth and innovation capacity of companies in this sector. Addressing this skills deficit through targeted training and development initiatives is crucial for long-term success.

Despite these significant challenges, promising pathways forward can be forged through innovative and context-specific approaches. Investing in localised infrastructure solutions, such as independent power generation and efficient localised logistics networks, can mitigate the impact of broader infrastructural deficiencies.

Exploring diverse funding avenues beyond traditional banking, including angel investors, government grants, crowdfunding, and revenue-based financing, can alleviate financial constraints.

Adapting to the digital divide by leveraging basic mobile technology and employing offline strategies like local agent networks can expand reach and inclusivity. Building resilient supply chains through direct farmer relationships, investing in aggregation centres, and utilising technology for farm management offer tangible solutions to logistical inefficiencies.

Proactive engagement with regulatory bodies and advocating for clearer, more supportive policies are crucial for navigating the regulatory landscape effectively. Building consumer trust necessitates transparent sourcing practices, clear communication about product benefits and safety, and active engagement with consumer feedback.

Finally, investing in talent development through collaborations with educational institutions and in-house training programs can bridge the critical skills gap.

Foodstuff Store is emerging as a business with a clear vision to directly confront several of these challenges. We are actively developing a decentralised network of businesses supported by strategically located distribution hubs across target states. This approach will directly address the limitations imposed by poor road networks, ensuring more localised access to our food products.

Furthermore, the establishment of regional storage facilities, including a state-of-the-art solar-powered cold storage, directly tackles infrastructural deficiencies related to food preservation and ensuring a consistent supply.

Foodstuff Store’s ambition for end-to-end management of the food supply chain, encompassing in-house production, direct sourcing, advanced storage solutions, and efficient distribution, offers a powerful solution to existing supply chain inefficiencies.

This integrated approach promises enhanced quality control, significant reductions in post-harvest losses, and a more reliable supply of both perishable and non-perishable goods for our customers.

Our aspiration to become the “Amazon for Food Products” is a clear and ambitious goal underpinned by a technology-driven approach to all aspects of our operational management. Foodstuff Store’s vision underscores a business model strategically designed to overcome significant hurdles within the Nigerian foodtech sector, offering a beacon of potential and a pathway to a more secure and efficient food system in a challenging yet remarkably promising landscape.

By Diana Tenebe is the Chief Operating Officer of Foodstuff Store

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President’s Katsina State Visit Exposes Disconnect from People’s Needs

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tinubu in katsina

By Abba Dukawa

The recent visit by the President Bola Tinubu to Katsina State has sparked concerns about the disconnect between the government’s priorities and the people’s needs. The visit exposed the hypocritical approach to the need of their people, states and the northern Nigeria as whole. The quality of leadership in the region has been questioned, with allegations of self serving  interest, ineptitude, and a lack of vision.

This is in spite of the fact that northern Nigeria as a whole faces numerous challenges that threaten its stability and development. Some of the key issues include insecurity, poverty, education, economic hardship, inequality and social and cultural challenges. The visit has been seen as an opportunity missed to engage with the state’s residents, listen to their concerns, and chart a way forward for development.

While the visit was marked by displays of pageantry and entertainment, the state’s pressing issues such as insecurity, poverty, and economic hardship, seemed to take a backseat.  Critics argue that the government’s focus on superficial events rather than addressing the root causes of the state’s challenges is a clear indication of a disconnect from the people’s needs.

The introduction of Rarara’s wife to the President by the Katsina State Governor, contravening cultural and religious norms, raise questions about leaders’ priorities and values.

Current leaders in the north seem more focused on personal interests and political survival than advocating for the northern Nigeria improvement.

Regardless of the challenges in the region the Governors  keep  praise for the President’s economic reforms, notwithstanding the region’s struggles, is concerning. economic reforms should lift people out of poverty, create jobs, and stimulate growth. If not yielding tangible benefits, they need reevaluation.

The north needs leaders prioritizing regional development and working towards a brighter future. Leaders understanding our region’s problems and committed to tackling them head-on are crucial. It’s time for a shift in approach, prioritizing people’s needs over personal interests.

As we move forward, we must demand more from our leaders. We need leaders who will stand up for the north and work tirelessly to find solutions. Anything less is a disservice to the region and its people.

We need leaders who cultivate a culture of good governance, prioritizing accountability and transparency to address insecurity and promote development.

The north needs a visionary leaders who prioritize all citizens’ needs, regardless of tribe or religion, are crucial for unity and stability.

Leaders who accelerate economic development, create jobs, and provide essential services like education and healthcare can reduce poverty and insecurity.

We require leaders who will combat corruption and promote social justice, reducing inequality and fostering stability.

In northern Nigeria, effective security reforms are necessary, including modernizing security agencies, enhancing intelligence gathering, and addressing insecurity’s root causes to ensure public safety.

To bridge the gap between the government and the people, there is a need for leaders who understand the intricacies of the state’s problems and are committed to tackling them head-on. By prioritizing the people’s needs and working towards sustainable development, the government can build trust and foster a sense of ownership among its citizens

May God guide Nigeria towards true development and prosperity.

Dukawa, a concerned Nigerian, can be reached at abbahydukawa@gmail.com

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