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Inflation Bites: Soaring Food Costs, Health Care and Consumer Spending

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Inflation Bites Timi Olubiyi

By Timi Olubiyi, PhD

The current economic situation of many Nigerians, be they unemployed, employed or small business operators is, to say the least, perplexing and confusing. Inflation continues to worsen the cost of living of the populace, eroding the purchasing power of citizenries with no succour in sight.

Even though inflation is a concept that affects all of us, most importantly, high inflation is hostile to even the economy. With persistent inflation, businesses and households will continue to perform poorly, and we will continue to pay more for the same goods and services. The consequence and impact of inflation (price instability) in recent times in Nigeria cannot be over-emphasized.

We have witnessed job losses, an increase in malnutrition, declines in social status,  food insecurity, high levels of different forms of begging from family, neighbours and friends and so on.

Likewise, most Nigerians in small businesses are struggling to survive daily because of low sales, accelerating inflation and worsening living conditions. It may even result in a higher mortality rate in the short term because when health care is expensive and unaffordable, it will widen the inequality that already exists.

More lower-income earners are likely to replace healthier food options with what is available, which could be toxic and detrimental to health. Because the cost of living crisis affects more than just our bank accounts, it hurts and affects mental health as it increases worry and anxiety.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the headline inflation rate for May 2023 was 22.41% and  22.79 % for June 2023.

The same inflation rate was 15.68% in 2016 and 9.01% in 2015. Currently, the inflation rate in Nigeria is the highest in the last 17 years, and this is a cause for concern. Though cost-of-living and inflation crises are typically global, the impact is more on the African continent.

For instance, inflation in Ghana reached 42.50% in July 2023, the highest level in two decades. Ghana has over 100% increase in food prices and transportation costs. The energy cost costs have risen dramatically.

Inflation is running at 44.81% for Sierra Leone as of June 2023, the highest in recent times,  driven by food and fuel inflation and the depreciation of the leone. Inflation has risen to 36 years high in Congo and many African countries are under growing pressure of high inflation and an unbearable cost of living.

Even though is a global phenomenon at this time the inflation the steady inflation in most African countries has been largely driven by the effects of the war in Ukraine, food, fuel and energy costs.

In Nigeria, Forex unification, government policies, public debt and recently reviewed fuel costs are the main causes. Importantly, when prices of energy, food, commodities, goods, and services go up, purchasing power usually goes down. The persistent rise in the inflation rate may continue to erode the value of  African currency against the dollar and continue to cause general price instability and this is a concern.

Based on the aforementioned and from the inflationary perspective, to achieve adequate price stability, the government needs to adopt significant structural policy reforms and tight monetary and fiscal policies to maintain stronger growth rates in terms of improved Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and to stabilize tide of inflationary pressures on our economy.

The stipulated palliative of 500 Billion to poor households by the federal government of Nigeria is laudable. However, it is expedient to consider support for the structured small-scale businesses that are priorities for economic growth, job creation and social cohesion.

Recent empirical studies show that SMEs contribute to over 60% of GDP and over 70% of total employment in low-income countries, while they contribute over 95% of total employment and about 70% of GDP in middle-income countries.

So, it is my opinion that to stimulate the Nigerian economy substantial part of the 500 billion palliatives can be considered as loans at 0% interest to structured, traceable and collateralized SMEs with repayment within five years. As such, it will improve working capital and stimulate businesses through technology adoption, asset acquisitions and business growth.

The SME sector can play a major role in economic growth at this point through poverty reduction and job creation. The sector is labour-intensive and can provide a reasonable reduction in the level of unemployment rate in the country but the government needs to provide an adequate enabling environment and palliative. It is further advocated that political leaders should minimize avoidable public spending, strengthen the judicial system, stiffen the anti-corruption drive, address insufficient infrastructure, and build strong and effective institutions.

Furthermore, institutions and individuals have the opportunity to beat inflation by accelerating the preservation of capital and strengthening purchasing power with income addition. This can be done by acquiring investments, particularly assets such as real estate, because they usually keep up with inflation.

Remember, one million naira (N1,000,000) today will not acquire the same value of goods and services in 10 years, mainly due to inflation. Therefore, investing is key to hedge against a sharp inflation impact because it erodes the value of savings if funds are just left in the bank accounts.

Conclusively, it is imperative to consider investing in other currencies, diversify your investment portfolio internationally if you can, and consider inflation-protected securities with potential for higher growth, like equities, Gold Shares ETF, or mutual funds. These can earn more interest returns per year than the inflation rate; therefore, the options are reasonable.

It is also possible to start a business, cultivate passive income generation, and/or even reduce unnecessary expenditures to increase the propensity to save. You might need to reach out using the details below for the necessary advice or for any further information you may require. Good Luck!

Dr Timi Olubiyi is an Entrepreneurship and Business Management expert with a PhD in Business Administration from Babcock University Nigeria. A prolific investment coach, columnist, author, adviser, seasoned scholar, Chartered Member of the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI), Member of the Institute of Directors, and Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) registered capital market operator. He can be reached on the Twitter handle @drtimiolubiyi and via email: [email protected], for any questions, reactions, and comments. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, Dr Timi Olubiyi, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of others.

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The Future of Payments: Key Trends to Watch in 2025

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Luke Kyohere

By Luke Kyohere

The global payments landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation. New technologies coupled with the rising demand for seamless, secure, and efficient transactions has spurred on an exciting new era of innovation and growth. With 2025 fast approaching, here are important trends that will shape the future of payments:

1. The rise of real-time payments

Until recently, real-time payments have been used in Africa for cross-border mobile money payments, but less so for traditional payments. We are seeing companies like Mastercard investing in this area, as well as central banks in Africa putting focus on this. 

2. Cashless payments will increase

In 2025, we will see the continued acceleration of cashless payments across Africa. B2B payments in particular will also increase. Digital payments began between individuals but are now becoming commonplace for larger corporate transactions. 

3. Digital currency will hit mainstream

In the cryptocurrency space, we will see an increase in the use of stablecoins like United States Digital Currency (USDC) and Tether (USDT) which are linked to US dollars. These will come to replace traditional cryptocurrencies as their price point is more stable. This year, many countries will begin preparing for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), government-backed digital currencies which use blockchain. 

The increased uptake of digital currencies reflects the maturity of distributed ledger technology and improved API availability. 

4. Increased government oversight

As adoption of digital currencies will increase, governments will also put more focus into monitoring these flows. In particular, this will centre on companies and banks rather than individuals. The goal of this will be to control and occasionally curb runaway foreign exchange (FX) rates.

5. Business leaders buy into AI technology

In 2025, we will see many business leaders buying into AI through respected providers relying on well-researched platforms and huge data sets. Most companies don’t have the budget to invest in their own research and development in AI, so many are now opting to ‘buy’ into the technology rather than ‘build’ it themselves. Moreover, many businesses are concerned about the risks associated with data ownership and accuracy so buying software is another way to avoid this risk. 

6. Continued AI Adoption in Payments

In payments, the proliferation of AI will continue to improve user experience and increase security.  To detect fraud, AI is used to track patterns and payment flows in real-time. If unusual activity is detected, the technology can be used to flag or even block payments which may be fraudulent. 

When it comes to user experience, we will also see AI being used to improve the interface design of payment platforms. The technology will also increasingly be used for translation for international payment platforms.

7. Rise of Super Apps

To get more from their platforms, mobile network operators are building comprehensive service platforms, integrating multiple payment experiences into a single app. This reflects the shift of many users moving from text-based services to mobile apps. Rather than offering a single service, super apps are packing many other services into a single app. For example, apps which may have previously been used primarily for lending, now have options for saving and paying bills. 

8. Business strategy shift

Recent major technological changes will force business leaders to focus on much shorter prediction and reaction cycles. Because the rate of change has been unprecedented in the past year, this will force decision-makers to adapt quickly, be decisive and nimble. 

As the payments space evolves,  businesses, banks, and governments must continually embrace innovation, collaboration, and prioritise customer needs. These efforts build a more inclusive, secure, and efficient payment system that supports local to global economic growth – enabling true financial inclusion across borders.

Luke Kyohere is the Group Chief Product and Innovation Officer at Onafriq

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Ghana’s Democratic Triumph: A Call to Action for Nigeria’s 2027 Elections

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ghana election 2024

In a heartfelt statement released today, the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) has extended its warmest congratulations to Ghana’s President-Elect, emphasizing the importance of learning from Ghana’s recent electoral success as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections.

In a statement signed by its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Comrade James Ezema, the CNPP highlighted the need for Nigeria to reclaim its status as a leader in democratic governance in Africa.

“The recent victory of Ghana’s President-Elect is a testament to the maturity and resilience of Ghana’s democracy,” the CNPP stated. “As we celebrate this achievement, we must reflect on the lessons that Nigeria can learn from our West African neighbour.”

The CNPP’s message underscored the significance of free, fair, and credible elections, a standard that Ghana has set and one that Nigeria has previously achieved under former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. “It is high time for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a beacon of democracy in Africa,” the CNPP asserted, calling for a renewed commitment to the electoral process.

Central to CNPP’s message is the insistence that “the will of the people must be supreme in Nigeria’s electoral processes.” The umbrella body of all registered political parties and political associations in Nigeria CNPP emphasized the necessity of an electoral system that genuinely reflects the wishes of the Nigerian populace. “We must strive to create an environment where elections are free from manipulation, violence, and intimidation,” the CNPP urged, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to take decisive action to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.

The CNPP also expressed concern over premature declarations regarding the 2027 elections, stating, “It is disheartening to note that some individuals are already announcing that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. This kind of statement not only undermines the democratic principles that our nation holds dear but also distracts from the pressing need for the current administration to earn the trust of the electorate.”

The CNPP viewed the upcoming elections as a pivotal moment for Nigeria. “The 2027 general elections present a unique opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a leader in democratic governance in Africa,” it remarked. The body called on all stakeholders — including the executive, legislature, judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society organisations — to collaborate in ensuring that elections are transparent, credible, and reflective of the will of the Nigerian people.

As the most populous African country prepares for the 2027 elections, the CNPP urged all Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to democratic principles. “We must work together to ensure that our elections are free from violence, intimidation, and manipulation,” the statement stated, reaffirming the CNPP’s commitment to promoting a peaceful and credible electoral process.

In conclusion, the CNPP congratulated the President-Elect of Ghana and the Ghanaian people on their remarkable achievements.

“We look forward to learning from their experience and working together to strengthen democracy in our region,” the CNPP concluded.

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The Need to Promote Equality, Equity and Fairness in Nigeria’s Proposed Tax Reforms

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tax reform recommendations

By Kenechukwu Aguolu

The proposed tax reform, involving four tax bills introduced by the Federal Government, has received significant criticism. Notably, it was rejected by the Governors’ Forum but was still forwarded to the National Assembly. Unlike the various bold economic decisions made by this government, concessions will likely need to be made on these tax reforms, which involve legislative amendments and therefore cannot be imposed by the executive. This article highlights the purposes of taxation, the qualities of a good tax system, and some of the implications of the proposed tax reforms.

One of the major purposes of taxation is to generate revenue for the government to finance its activities. A good tax system should raise sufficient revenue for the government to fund its operations, and support economic and infrastructural development. For any country to achieve meaningful progress, its tax-to-GDP ratio should be at least 15%. Currently, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 11%. The proposed tax reforms aim to increase this ratio to 18% within the next three years.

A good tax system should also promote income redistribution and equality by implementing progressive tax policies. In line with this, the proposed tax reforms favour low-income earners. For example, individuals earning less than one million naira annually are exempted from personal income tax. Additionally, essential goods and services such as food, accommodation, and transportation, which constitute a significant portion of household consumption for low- and middle-income groups, are to be exempted from VAT.

In addition to equality, a good tax system should ensure equity and fairness, a key area of contention surrounding the proposed reforms. If implemented, the amendments to the Value Added Tax could lead to a significant reduction in the federal allocation for some states; impairing their ability to finance government operations and development projects. The VAT amendments should be holistically revisited to promote fairness and national unity.

The establishment of a single agency to collect government taxes, the Nigeria Revenue Service, could reduce loopholes that have previously resulted in revenue losses, provided proper controls are put in place. It is logically easier to monitor revenue collection by one agency than by multiple agencies. However, this is not a magical solution. With automation, revenue collection can be seamless whether it is managed by one agency or several, as long as monitoring and accountability measures are implemented effectively.

The proposed tax reforms by the Federal Government are well-intentioned. However, all concerns raised by Nigerians should be looked into, and concessions should be made where necessary. Policies are more effective when they are adapted to suit the unique characteristics of a nation, rather than adopted wholesale. A good tax system should aim to raise sufficient revenue, ensure equitable income distribution, and promote equality, equity, and fairness.

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