Feature/OPED
Iran-Israel-US Conflict and CBN’s FX Gains: A Stress Test for Nigeria’s Monetary Stability
By Blaise Udunze
At the 304th policy meeting held on Wednesday, the 25th February, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee cut the rate by 50 basis points to 26.5 per cent from 27 per cent, which has been widely described as a cautious transition from prolonged tightening to calibrated easing. The CBN stated that the decision followed 11 consecutive months of disinflation. The economy witnessed headline inflation easing to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, and food inflation falling sharply to 8.89 per cent. Foreign reserves are climbing to $50.45 billion, their highest level in 13 years. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is holding at an expansionary 55.7 points.
As reported in the paper, no doubt that the macroeconomic narrative appears encouraging. On a closer scrutiny, the sustainability of these gains is now being tested by forces far beyond the apex bank’s policy corridors. This is as a result of the clear, direct ripple effect of the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, with direct military involvement from the United States, which has triggered one of the most significant geopolitical energy shocks in decades. For Nigeria, the timing is delicate. Just as the CBN signals confidence in disinflation and stability, global volatility threatens to complicate and possibly distort its monetary path.
The rate cut, though welcomed by many analysts, must be understood in context. Nigeria remains in an exceptionally high-rate environment. An MPR of 26.5 per cent is still restrictive by any standard. The Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) remains elevated at 45 per cent for commercial banks, and this effectively sterilises nearly half of deposits, while liquidity ratios are tight, and lending rates to businesses often exceed 30 per cent once risk premiums are included. The adjustment is therefore incremental, not transformational.
The Director/CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, has repeatedly noted that Nigeria’s deeper challenge lies in weak monetary transmission. According to him, even when the benchmark rate falls, structural rigidities, high CRR, elevated deposit costs, macroeconomic uncertainty, and crowding-out from government borrowing prevent meaningful relief from reaching manufacturers, SMEs, agriculture, and other productive sectors. Monetary easing, without structural reform, risks becoming cosmetic. The point is that even before structural reforms take effect, the fact is that an external shock will first reshape the landscape.
The Iran-Israel conflict and US involvement have reignited fears in global energy markets. Joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and retaliatory missile exchanges across the Gulf have unsettled oil traders. Brent crude, already rising in anticipation of escalation, surged toward $70-$75 per barrel and could climb higher if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 per cent of global oil supplies pass, faces disruption. It is still an irony that a major crude exporter is also an importer of refined petroleum products.
Higher crude prices offer a theoretical windfall. For Nigeria’s economy, it is well known that oil remains its largest source of foreign exchange and accounts for roughly 50 per cent of government revenue. The good thing is that rising prices could boost reserves, improve forex liquidity, strengthen the naira, and ease fiscal pressures. In theory, this external cushion could support macroeconomic stability and reinforce the CBN’s easing posture.
However, the upside is constrained by structural weaknesses. Nigeria’s oil production remains below optimal capacity. A significant portion of crude exports is tied to long-term contracts, limiting immediate gains from spot price surges. As SB Morgen observed in its analysis, Nigeria’s “windfall” is volatile and limited by soft production performance.
More critically, Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined products exposes it to imported inflation. Rising global crude prices increase the cost of petrol, diesel, jet fuel and gas. With fuel subsidies removed, these increases are passed directly to consumers and businesses. Depot pump prices have already adjusted upward amid Middle East tensions.
Energy costs are a primary driver of Nigeria’s inflation, and this has remained sacrosanct. When fuel prices rise, transportation, logistics, food distribution, power generation, and manufacturing costs will definitely skyrocket, as well as the inflationary impulse spreads quickly through the economy. This will push households to face higher food and transportation costs. Businesses see shrinking margins. Real incomes erode.
Thus, the same oil shock that boosts government revenue may simultaneously reignite inflationary pressure, precisely at a moment when the CBN has begun cautiously easing policy.
This dynamic introduces a difficult policy dilemma, even as this could be for the fragile gains of the MPC. This is to say that if energy-driven inflation resurges, the CBN may be forced to pause or reverse its easing cycle. It is clearly spelt that high inflation typically compels tighter monetary conditions. As Yusuf warned, geopolitical headwinds that elevate inflation often push central banks toward higher interest rates. A renewed tightening would strain credit conditions further, undermining growth prospects.
There is also the risk of money supply expansion. Increased oil revenues, once monetised, can expand liquidity in the domestic system. Historically, surges in oil receipts have been associated with monetary growth, inflationary pressure, and exchange rate volatility. Without sterilisation discipline, a revenue boost could ironically destabilise macro fundamentals.
The exchange rate dimension compounds the complexity. Heightened geopolitical risk, just as it is currently playing out with the Iran-Israel conflict, often triggers global flight to safety. This will eventually lure investors to retreat to U.S. Treasuries and gold. Emerging markets face capital outflows. If it happens that foreign portfolio investors withdraw from Nigeria’s fixed-income market in response to global uncertainty, pressure on the naira could intensify.
Already, the CBN has demonstrated sensitivity to exchange rate dynamics by intervening to prevent excessive naira appreciation. A sharp rate cut in the midst of global volatility could destabilise carry trades and spur dollar demand. What should be known is that the 50-bps reduction reflects not just domestic disinflation, but global risk management such as geopolitical tensions, oil prices, and foreign investor sentiment.
Beyond macroeconomics, geopolitical implications carry security concerns. Analysts warn that a widening Middle East conflict could embolden extremist narratives across the Sahel and it directly has security consequences for Nigeria and the broader region. Groups such as Boko Haram and ISWAP may exploit anti-Western framing to recruit and mobilise more followers in the Sahel region, thereby giving the extremist groups new propaganda opportunities. The pebble fear is that a diversion of Western security resources away from West Africa could create regional vacuums. What the Nigerian economy will begin to experience is that security instability will disrupt agricultural output, logistics corridors, and investor confidence, feeding back into inflation and slow economic growth, and as ripple effects, the economy becomes weaker.
Nigeria’s diplomatic balancing act adds another layer of fragility because it is walking on a tactful tightrope. The country is trying not to upset anyone, but maintains cautious neutrality, urging restraint while preserving ties with Western allies and Middle Eastern partners. Yet rising tensions globally between major powers, including Russia and China, complicate the geopolitical chessboard. Invariably, this will have a direct impact as trade flows, remittances, and investment patterns may change unexpectedly, affecting Nigeria’s economy.
With the current conflict in the Middle East, the prospects for economic growth also face renewed strain or are under increased pressure. The stock markets in developed countries have been fluctuating a lot because people are worried that there will be problems with the energy supply. If the whole world does not grow fast, then people will use less oil over time. This means that the good things that happen to Nigeria because of oil prices will probably not last, and any extra money Nigeria gets from oil prices now will be lost. Nigeria will not get to keep the money from high oil prices for a long time. The oil prices will affect Nigeria. Then the effect will go away. One clear thing is that since Nigeria relies heavily on oil exports, this commodity dependence exposes the country to significant risk.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s domestic fundamentals remain structurally challenged. The recapitalisation of banks, with 20 of 33 institutions meeting new capital thresholds, strengthens resilience, but does not guarantee credit expansion into productive sectors. Banks continue to prefer risk-free government securities over private lending in uncertain environments.
Fiscal discipline remains essential. Elevated debt service obligations absorb substantial revenue. Election-related spending poses upside inflation risks. This understanding must be adhered to, that without credible deficit reduction and revenue diversification, monetary easing may be undermined by fiscal expansion.
At the moment, given the current global and domestic uncertainties, the 50 per cent interest cut rate appears less like a pivot toward growth and more like a signal of cautious optimism under conditional stability. The policy decision is based on several key expectations with the assumptions that disinflation will persist, exchange rate stability will hold, and global conditions will not deteriorate dramatically.
But the Iran-Israel-U.S. conflict introduces uncertainty into all three assumptions, which is wrongly perceived as behind the rate cut that inflation will keep coming down, that the exchange rate will stay stable, and global conditions won’t worsen, are all undermined by the unfolding conflict.
If the global oil prices rise sharply and fuel becomes more expensive locally, overall prices in the economy could increase again, which means inflation could accelerate. Another dangerous trend is that if foreign investors pull capital out of Nigeria, exchange rate stability could weaken, seeing the naira coming under pressure. If global growth slows, export earnings could decline. Each of these scenarios would constrain the CBN’s flexibility.
This is not to dismiss potential upsides. Higher oil prices, if production improves, could bolster reserves and moderate fiscal deficits. Forex liquidity could strengthen the naira. Investment in upstream oil and gas could gain momentum. Historically, crude price increases have correlated with improved GDP performance and stock market optimism in Nigeria.
Yet history also warns of volatility. A good example is during the 2022 Ukraine conflict, oil prices spiked above $100 per barrel, which created a potential revenue windfall for oil-exporting countries, but Nigeria struggled to translate that temporary advantage into sustained economic improvement. Inflation persisted. In the case of Nigeria, the deep-rooted systemic or structural weaknesses and inefficiency diluted the benefits that should have been gained.
The lesson is clear because temporary external windfalls or short-term luck cannot substitute for structural and deep internal economic reforms.
The point is that sustainable development demands diversification beyond oil, to strengthening multiple parts of its economy at the same time, such as improved refining capacity, infrastructure investment, agricultural security, logistics efficiency, and fiscal consolidation. Monetary policy, as the action taken by the CBN at the MPC meeting by adjusting interest rates or attempting to control money supply, can anchor expectations and moderate volatility, but it cannot build productive capacity; it will only help to reduce short-term economic swings.
The CBN’s decision to cut the interest rate appears cautious. It is not a bold shift but rather a small adjustment. This shows that the bank is being careful and optimistic about the economy. It also knows that there are still problems. The trouble in the Middle East, like the fighting that affects the oil supply, reminds the people in charge that Nigeria’s economy is closely tied to what happens with energy around the world. This includes things like inflation, the value of money, and how fast the economy grows.
Until structural reforms reduce dependence on volatile oil cycles and imported fuel, Nigeria’s monetary policy will remain reactive to external crises. To really make the economy strong and stable, Nigeria needs to make some changes. It requires resilience against geopolitical storms.
The MPC has taken a step. Whether it marks a turning point depends less on 50 basis points and more on how Nigeria navigates a world increasingly defined by conflict-driven volatility.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: bl***********@***il.com
Feature/OPED
#LifeAfterLebaran: 5 WhatsApp Hacks to Stay Close with Family After Eid
You’re back home after mudik (homecoming), the suitcases are unpacked, and the excitement of being with family for Eid already feels like a long time ago. But just because Eid is over doesn’t mean the special connection of being with family has to fade. Here are the best group chat features for beating the post-Raya blues.
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Keep The Vibe Going by Sharing Ramadan Highlights
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Keep the Memories Rolling with Status: Your Status feed doesn’t have to go quiet just because you’re back home. Post the most memorable throwback photos from the Eid reunion and add questions to spark responses like “What was your favourite Raya dish?” Add music and stickers to Status to keep the energy alive.
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Express Yourself with Text Stickers: Turn inside jokes, family slogans, or a favourite Eid quote into a Text Sticker. It’s a quick, personalised way to add some warmth and humour to the group chat.
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Skip the Stock Cards, Use Meta AI for a Personal Touch: Don’t just send a generic “Hi” or “Good morning” in the family chat. Use Meta AI to make your personalised greeting card or quickly transform a single photo into an animated image to send a heartfelt, animated check-in.
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Schedule The Next Reunion
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Plan Your Next Post-Raya Get-Together: The blues often hit when the fun ends. Keep spirits up by creating a new Event in the group chat right away. Add event reminders so everyone doesn’t miss the opportunity to connect.
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Schedule a Call, Don’t Just Say “Call Me”: Carry on the family tradition of staying connected, even when you’re miles apart. Tap + then Schedule a call in the Calls tab to lock in a regular “Post-Raya Check-in” video call. Send a reminder so everyone can join on time.
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Keep the Raya Spirit Alive by Getting Everyone Involved
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Assign yourself a fun “tag” in the family group: Are you the one who always ends up cooking? Or the one who plans the itinerary for family trips? Or the master of GIFs who keeps everyone amused? Use the Member Tag feature in the group to give yourself a witty, funny, or practical role—”Next Event Planner” or “Tech Support Guru,” maybe?. Member tags can be customised for each group you’re in.
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Share a Spontaneous ‘I Miss You’ Video: Did you just see something that reminded you of the reunion? Press and hold the camera icon to record a spontaneous Video Notes message. It’s faster than typing and instantly brings warmth and real-time emotion back into the group.
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Digital Hugs: Making the Long-Distance Moment Count
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Share a Moving Memory: Don’t just send a still photo. Share a Live or Motion Photo to capture the ambient sound and movement of a recent Eid moment. It makes your memories feel more vivid, personal, and real—a perfect antidote to feeling disconnected.
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Your Group Chat Background: Create a vibe with Meta AI: Don’t settle for a plain background for your family group chat. Use Meta AI to generate unique, custom chat wallpapers that reflect something uniquely memorable to your family: be it food, travel or a sport that unites everyone. Every time you open the chat, you’ll feel the warmth, not the distance.
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Make Sure No One Misses Out
No More FOMO: Send the Conversation History: Just added a family member who couldn’t make it to mudik? When adding a new member, you can now send up to 100 recent messages with the Group Message History feature. No need to recap; let them catch up instantly and feel included from the first tap.
Feature/OPED
4 Ways AI is Changing How Nigerians Discover Businesses
By Olumide Balogun
Nigerians are natural explorers. Whether finding the best supplier in Balogun market, hunting down a recipe for party jollof, or looking for the most affordable flight out of Lagos, we are always searching.
Today, human curiosity is expanding, and the way Nigerians express it is evolving. We are speaking to our phones, snapping photos of things we like, and asking incredibly complex questions. For the Nigerian business owner, understanding this shift is a massive opportunity to get discovered by eager customers.
Here are four ways AI is rewriting how Nigerians search, along with simple steps to ensure your business is exactly what they find.
1. Visual Discovery is the New Normal
People are increasingly using their cameras to discover the world around them. Picture someone spotting a brilliant pair of sneakers in traffic and wanting to know exactly where to buy them. Today, shoppers simply take out their phones and search visually.
Tools like Google Lens now process over 25 billion visual searches every single month, and many of these searches are from people looking to make a purchase.
How to adapt: Your product’s visual appeal is paramount. Make sure you upload clear, high-quality images of your products to your website and social media. When a customer snaps a picture of a bag that looks like the one you sell, having great photos ensures your business pops up in their visual search results.
2. Conversations Replace Simple Keywords
Shoppers are asking highly nuanced, conversational questions. They are typing queries like, “Where can I find affordable leather shoes in Ikeja that are open on Sundays and do home delivery?”
To handle these detailed questions, new features like AI Overviews act like a superfast librarian that has read everything on the web. It provides users with a perfectly organised summary and links to dig deeper.
How to adapt: Answer your customers’ questions before they even ask. Create detailed, helpful content on your website and fully update your Google Business Profile. List your opening hours, delivery areas, and unique services clearly. This ensures the technology easily finds your details and recommends your business when a customer asks a highly specific question.
3. Intent Matters More Than Exact Words
Predicting every single word a customer might use to find your product is a huge task for any business owner. Thankfully, modern search technology focuses on the underlying need behind a search.
If someone searches for “how to bring small dogs on flights,” AI understands that the person likely needs to buy an airline-approved pet carrier. The technology looks at the true intent of the shopper.
How to adapt: You no longer need to obsess over guessing exact keywords. By using AI-powered campaigns, you allow the technology to understand your products and match them to the customer’s true needs. Your business will show up for highly relevant searches, bringing you customers who are actively looking for solutions you provide.
4. Smart Assistants Handle the Heavy Lifting
Running a business in Nigeria requires incredible hustle. Managing digital marketing on top of daily operations takes significant time and energy. The next frontier in digital advertising introduces agentic capabilities, which hold a simple promise of delivering better results for your business with much less effort.
The technology now acts as your personalised assistant.
How to adapt: You can simplify your marketing by using the Power Pack of AI-driven campaigns, including Performance Max. You simply provide your business goals, your budget, and your creative assets like photos and videos. The AI automatically finds new, high-value customers across Google Search, YouTube, and the web. It adapts your ads in real time to match exactly what the shopper is looking for, allowing you to focus on running your business.
The language of curiosity is constantly expanding. Nigerians are discovering brands in entirely new ways using cameras, voice notes, and highly specific questions. By understanding these behaviours and embracing helpful AI tools, you can let the technology connect eager customers directly to your digital doorstep.
Olumide Balogun is a Director at Google West Africa
Feature/OPED
One SA Bank Equals Nigeria’s Entire Banking Sector – Why Recapitalisation Is Critical for Global Competitiveness
By Blaise Udunze
Nigeria has always prided itself as Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation. Currently, its banking sector is confronting a moment of truth that should send shockwaves. Today, a single South African bank, Standard Bank Group, commands a market value at roughly $21-22 billion that rivals and, in some comparisons, exceeds the entire Nigerian banking industry. Though it may seem to be unbelievable, it is real. This striking imbalance is not merely about market valuations for individuals who are perturbed by this alarming revelation. Hence, it must be known that this reflects deeper structural challenges in Nigeria’s financial system and underscores why the Central Bank of Nigeria’s recapitalisation drive has become essential for restoring competitiveness, resilience, and global relevance.
Without any iota of doubt, for a nation of over 200 million people and Africa’s largest economy by several metrics, this reality is more than an uncomfortable statistic. This is truly a reflection of deeper structural weaknesses within the financial system. It highlights the urgent need for reform and explains why the ongoing recapitalisation drive by the Central Bank of Nigeria has become one of the most consequential policy interventions in the country’s banking industry in two decades.
Recapitalisation is not merely a regulatory exercise. If, genuinely, the key stakeholders consider this exercise as an attempt to reposition Nigerian banks to compete with global peers, strengthen financial stability, restore investor confidence, and enable the banking sector to support economic transformation, they must not handle this report with bias.
The disparity between Nigerian and South African banks illustrates the scale of the challenge.
While Standard Bank Group, the largest by assets, has a market capitalisation of roughly R372 billion ($21-22 billion = N32.66 trillion). Similar whooping amounts valued in the multi-billion-dollar range as of 2025 apply to several other South African banks, including FirstRand, Absa Group, and Nedbank. For apt juxtaposition from what is obtainable with the South African bank, the combined market capitalisation of 13 Nigerian banks listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) stood at about N16.14 trillion ($10.87 billion) as of 2025-2026. However, the earlier benchmarks show that around May 2025, it was about N11.07 trillion. The current valuation of N16.14 trillion is a result of the funds tapped by some banks from the capital market through rights issues and public offerings.
Nigeria’s largest banks tell a different story. Guaranty Trust Holding Company, widely regarded as one of Nigeria’s most efficient banks, is valued at less than $2 billion (N3.3 trillion). Access Holdings, despite managing assets exceeding $70 billion, carries a market capitalisation of under $1 billion.
To further buttress Africa’s largest financial institution’s position, as of June 30, 2025, Standard Bank Group of South Africa reported total assets of R3.4 trillion. This amount is equivalent to $191.8 billion, and it points to the fact that it is at the top in Africa’s financial space. The equivalent in naira at Nigeria’s exchange rate of N1,484.50 to $1. Hence, $191.8 billion translates to approximately N284,983 trillion, or roughly N285 trillion. This means a single South African bank now outvalues the entire Nigerian banking industry, when compared to the 10 largest lenders collectively holding N218.99 trillion in assets. Though Nigerian banking industry assets were projected to reach N242.3 trillion ($151.4 billion) by 2025-2026.
The obvious and alarming disconnect between asset size and market value signals a deeper crisis of confidence as enumerated thus far. One underlying mistake is to understand that investors are not merely assessing balance sheets; they are evaluating governance standards, currency stability, regulatory predictability, and long-term growth prospects, as these remain their focal interests. The market’s verdict is clear: Nigerian banks remain undervalued because investors perceive higher systemic risks.
It would be recalled that Nigeria has travelled this road before, in 2004-2006, which didn’t end as planned. The then-governor of the Central Bank, Charles Soludo, launched a bold consolidation reform that reshaped the banking industry. Also, it would be recalled that Nigeria, in numbers, had 89 banks, which were more than what is in operation today, and many of them were small, fragile, and undercapitalised.
Similar steps are being witnessed today, as Soludo then raised the minimum capital base from N2 billion to N25 billion, triggering a wave of mergers and acquisitions that reduced the number of banks to 25. The industry witnessed the emergence of champions as the reform produced stronger institutions, such as Zenith Bank, United Bank for Africa, Guaranty Trust Bank, and Access Bank.
For a period, the experience was that Nigerian banks expanded aggressively across Africa and emerged as formidable competitors on the continent, but unfortunately, the momentum gradually faded because of certain missing pieces, and this must be addressed if the industry is ready for economic relevance.
The global financial crisis of 2008 exposed weaknesses in risk management and regulatory oversight. With the industry reacting, several banks were heavily exposed to the stock market and the oil sector. This led to another wave of reforms under former CBN governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi in 2009.
Although one would say that those interventions stabilised the system. But more harm than good, they also ushered in a more conservative banking culture, as witnessed in the system, where many institutions prioritised survival over innovation.
Two decades after the Soludo reforms, Nigeria’s financial landscape has changed dramatically.
The size of the economy has expanded, inflation has eroded the real value of bank capital, and global regulatory standards have become more demanding. Banks that once appeared adequately capitalised now find themselves operating with limited buffers against economic shocks.
Recognising these vulnerabilities, the CBN introduced a new recapitalisation framework requiring banks to raise their capital bases to the following thresholds: N500 billion for international banks, N200 billion for national banks, and N50 billion for regional banks.
As has always been the case, these requirements are designed to ensure that Nigerian banks possess the financial strength required to compete with institutions in advanced economies.
The Nigerian banking sector should take a new leaf as the recapitalisation exercise comes to an end, with the understanding that capital adequacy is not merely a regulatory metric; it determines how much risk banks can absorb, how much they can lend, and how resilient they remain during economic crises, which must be accompanied by innovation.
In developed financial systems, banks operate with deep capital buffers, which is common with South African banks that allow them to finance infrastructure, industrial projects, and large corporate investments. Without similar capital strength, Nigerian banks cannot effectively support large-scale economic development.
One of the most persistent obstacles facing Nigeria’s banking sector is currency volatility. The Nigerian naira has experienced repeated devaluations in recent years, eroding investor returns and weakening confidence in local financial assets.
When the currency depreciates sharply, equity valuations expressed in dollars decline even if banks report strong profits in local currency. This dynamic partly explains why Nigerian banks appear profitable domestically yet remain undervalued in international markets.
In contrast, South Africa’s financial system benefits from a more stable currency environment and deeper capital markets.
The strength of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange allows South African banks to attract large pools of institutional capital from pension funds, asset managers, and international investors. Nigeria’s financial markets, though improving, remain comparatively shallow.
Another irony in Nigeria’s banking sector is the difference between reported profits and genuine productivity within the economy, and the contradiction is glaring. Though it is known that many Nigerian banks recorded extraordinary profit growth in recent years, partly driven by foreign-exchange revaluation gains following the depreciation of the naira but the contradiction is that such gains do not necessarily reflect improvements in efficiency, innovation, or lending performance.
One measure the apex bank adopted was recognising the risks and restricting banks from paying dividends derived from these gains, insisting they be retained as capital buffers.
This intervention revealed how much of the apparent profitability was linked to currency fluctuations rather than sustainable business growth.
True banking strength lies not in accounting windfalls but in the ability to finance real economic activity, and this should be one of the ongoing recapitalisation targets.
The core function of banks in any economy is to channel savings into productive investment. Yet Nigerian banks have increasingly shifted toward safer and more profitable activities, such as investing in government securities, which has continued to weigh negatively on the growth of the real economy.
Other mitigating headwinds, such as high interest rates, regulatory uncertainty, and credit risks, discourage lending to manufacturing firms and small businesses. The result is a financial system that often prioritises short-term returns over long-term economic development.
By contrast, South African banks play a more significant role in financing infrastructure projects, corporate expansion, and consumer credit.
Recapitalisation aims to address this imbalance by strengthening banks’ capacity to support the real economy. The fact is that stronger balance sheets will allow Nigerian banks to finance large projects in sectors such as energy, transportation, agriculture, and manufacturing; alas, the narrative is totally different, going by what is obtainable in the Nigerian finance sector when compared to others.
Investor perception is shaped not only by financial performance but also by governance standards. International investors place significant emphasis on transparency, regulatory stability, and corporate accountability.
While Nigerian banks have made relative progress in improving governance frameworks, concerns remain about insider lending, regulatory inconsistencies and complex ownership structures, as these issues have continued to weigh on the industry, while some of these obvious factors may have contributed to the challenges observed in the operations of institutions such as First Bank Plc and another example is the liquidation of Heritage Bank.
Recapitalisation provides an opportunity to strengthen governance by attracting new institutional investors and enforcing stricter disclosure requirements, and not mainly dwelling on the pursuit of bigger capital because capital alone does not guarantee resilience, as it would be recalled that Nigeria has travelled this road before.
Larger, better-capitalised banks tend to operate with more robust governance systems because they face greater scrutiny from regulators and shareholders.
The global banking industry has become increasingly competitive, which should be a wake-up call for the Nigerian banking industry.
Technological innovation, cross-border expansion, and regulatory harmonisation have transformed how financial institutions operate, and this means that African banks, especially in Nigeria, known as the economic giant of Africa, must therefore compete not only with regional peers but also with global players.
Recapitalisation is essential if Nigerian banks are to participate meaningfully in this evolving landscape. On this aspect, it must be emphasised that stronger capital bases will enable banks to invest in digital infrastructure, expand internationally, and develop sophisticated financial products.
Besides, they will also enhance the ability of Nigerian banks to participate in large syndicated loans and international trade financing.
Without adequate capital strength, Nigerian banks risk being marginalised in the global financial system, and for this reason, the CBN must ensure that every dime injected or raised for recapitalisation is genuinely devoid of any form of irregularities.
At the same time, traditional banks face increasing competition from financial technology companies. Nigeria has emerged as one of Africa’s leading fintech hubs, attracting billions of dollars in venture capital investment. These companies are reshaping payments, lending, and digital banking services.
While fintech innovation presents opportunities for collaboration, it also poses a competitive threat to traditional banks. To remain relevant, banks must invest heavily in technology and digital transformation.
The CBN must ensure that the ongoing recapitalisation provides the financial capacity needed to support such investments, just like its counterpart in South Africa’s banking sector, which operates with a large pool of capital.
The success of Nigeria’s recapitalisation programme will depend on more than regulatory mandates, which is a fact that must be taken into cognisance. Since banks must demonstrate a genuine commitment to transparency, innovation, and long-term economic development.
Policymakers must also address the broader macroeconomic environment. Of a truth, the moment Nigeria maintains a stable exchange rate, lower inflation, and predictable regulatory policies, it will be essential to restoring investor confidence, and if aptly implemented effectively, recapitalisation could usher in a new era for Nigeria’s banking sector.
The country does not necessarily need dozens of weak banks competing for limited opportunities. What Nigeria truly needs are just fewer, stronger institutions capable of financing industrialisation, supporting entrepreneurs, and competing globally.
Nigeria often describes itself as the giant of Africa. But size alone does not determine financial strength. The comparison with South Africa’s banking sector serves as a sobering reminder that institutional quality matters far more than population size.
The ongoing recapitalisation exercise, which is due March 31, 2026, represents an opportunity to rebuild Nigeria’s financial architecture and position its banks for global competitiveness.
If the reforms succeed, Nigerian banks could once again emerge as powerful players on the African stage. If they fail, the uncomfortable reality will persist, one South African bank standing taller than an entire Nigerian banking industry.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: bl***********@***il.com
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