Feature/OPED
Manufacturers, Entrepreneurs and Business Owners: Dealing with Inflation, Competitors and Substitute Goods
By Timi Olubiyi, PhD
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, as well as the economic turbulence, have had significant impacts on businesses, manufacturers and households, including individual lifestyles and well-being in recent times.
The direct consequence of these impacts has been a very large increase in inflation numbers in the country, and it is currently having serious implications.
Globally, no country is immune to inflation. Around the world, inflationary pressure has been experienced in the USA, the UK, and many other developed and developing nations. But in Nigeria, the peculiarity is that inflation has been getting higher steadily for the last two years.
Nigeria is one of the countries where inflation has grown the fastest, and it has been a concern for many businesses, and the government due to its severe impact post, COVID-19.
Lately, we have witnessed continued and unexplainable increases in the price of practically every known item and service across the country. The troubling trend is that most of these basic and essential necessities are increasingly out of reach for the majority of people, indicating that the country’s cost of living has risen at an alarming rate. That is, the rise in household spending required to maintain a consistent and decent quality of life has been a source of anxiety for many. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says Nigeria’s headline inflation rate increased to 18.60 per cent on a year-on-year basis as of June 2022. The percentage change is the highest in the last five years, according to the records.
Though academic literature has pointed out that once inflation exceeds a certain level, on average above 15%, it starts to have a negative impact on the economy, principally on economic stability, growth, employment and investment attractiveness. Even so, the author thinks that the real inflation in an economy is shown by the rise in prices of food, groceries, and other goods and services that people use every day.
Without a doubt, the food inflation trend over the last two years has been overwhelming. The proportion of the majority’s income that is spent on food has remained ridiculously high. The persistent rise in inflation results in a decline in the buying power of Nigerians, who are therefore getting poorer. Because they will be forced to prioritise significant spending and the affordability of essentials will continue to decrease. The consequences of high inflation are a spike in unemployment numbers, a rise in poverty rates, declining savings, a high number of jobless youths, crimes, and unrest.
A report by Aljazeera titled Inflation rises in Nigeria amid fuel scarcity and insecurity indicated that four (4) out of ten (10) Nigerians are living below the poverty line. So, with this trend, the author has noticed a spike and sharp rise in the demand for substituted products and services by the majority of the citizenry in the country. The substitution effect usually happens when consumers replace very expensive items with cheaper ones due to price changes or when their financial conditions regress, and vice-versa. However, the point is about the decline in purchasing power due to inflation and its attendant consequences.
The cost of purchasing products and services required to maintain a given quality of life continues to be a major worry for many families and individuals in the country. According to the substitution effect, people switch from more expensive products and services to less expensive alternatives when prices rise or income declines.
For the majority of businesses, the persistent inflation in the country has made the high cost of running and maintaining independently generated power unbearable, particularly the cost of diesel. This has resulted in a high cost of running businesses. However, this cost is passed on to the consumers without notice. When this cost is passed and consumers find it intolerable, then a change in demand by switching to substitute products and services prevail. The propensity for this trend is high and it has been the order of the day. Substitute goods or products are alternative goods that could be used for the same purpose. Therefore, in the presence of inflation, substituting means that consumers seek out alternatives that are frequently low in price, most of the time low in quality, inferior, and largely unregulated.
The demand for substitutes continues to rise because the masses need to survive at all cost, so who has the blame? The consumers or the businesses? So long as the price of goods and products continues to increase, demand for their substitutes will continue to rise.
Consequently, business operators need to be aware of this. For instance, numerous salary earners have been forced to reduce the quality of the food they purchase and business owners continue to replace family food basket staples with any affordable alternative. Meanwhile, the expenses of transportation, school fees, electricity, cooking gas, and rent are equally on the rise, adding to the burden.
From a business perspective, substitute products create rivalry, loss of revenue, weak sales, loss of potential customers or consumers, low or no patronage, and threats to business survival. The main absurdity is that businesses cannot even identify the providers of these alternatives, because they remain largely in the dark. For instance, canned and jarred Sardine Titus is expensive, but Sardine Estus an alternative is available and affordable but the producers are faceless and unknown. Many of such competitors are available in the Nigerian market with a huge market share and competitive pressure. However, the quality of these readily available cheap alternatives is significantly compromised, and market-leading companies and products could even suffer business continuity issues if the lower-priced alternative continues to gain market share and interest of the masses.
As a response, it is a time for businesses to re-strategise, engage in high marketing and promotional campaigns, innovate in line with customer expectations and patronage-improving products, and lower prices.
Again, businesses can review their pricing model at this time to accommodate consumers and customers with waning purchasing power. It is also important for the government to play a bigger role in regulating substandard, inferior, and bad products, especially those that are dumped on the Nigerian market. Right now, it’s important to look at and understand how substitution can affect the economy, businesses, and environment in order to stop high death rates and illnesses.
Businesses can fail entirely as a result of substitute effects and substitution products outperforming the original. In a market where there are fewer substitute products, there is a higher probability of businesses earning greater profits, but the reverse is the case, with inflation and the current realities. So, entrepreneurs, business owners, and SME operators need to clearly understand that their businesses may just suffer from a substitution effect, which can weaken the sales of their products and may be attributed to consumers switching to cheaper alternatives just because they no longer have affordability or the price hike is unbearable.
In the view of the author, consumers largely make their choices based on their available spending power and make constant adjustments based on price changes, most of the time on impulse. So, in a time of high inflation and low consumer spending, cheaper substitutes and second-hand (used) items) are the alternatives that are available. Observation of the surroundings reveals every accessible space or place for micro businesses to operate, its an avenue to trade in second-hand items which the majority now prefer as alternatives owing to dwindling income and affordability at this time due to inflation. This can make it harder for well-known brands or established businesses to get patronage and remain in business if differentiation or other business strategies are ignored to stay cost competitive.
Many are unaware that the high inflation rate in the country is one of the major reasons why Naira is losing value. Therefore, the authors recommend that the government should make a deliberate effort to tackle the key issues in the country: insecurity, incessant power issues, continued exchange rate instability, and non-availability of forex to genuine business operators and exporting companies. Inflation could remain an issue unless these issues are given headlong attention. Good luck!
How may you obtain advice or further information on the article?
Dr Timi Olubiyi, an Entrepreneurship & Business Management expert with a PhD in Business Administration from Babcock University Nigeria. A prolific investment coach, author, seasoned scholar, Chartered Member of the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI), and Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) registered capital market operator. He can be reached on the Twitter handle @drtimiolubiyi and via email: [email protected], for any questions, reactions, and comments. The opinions expressed in this article are that of the author- Dr Timi Olubiyi and do not necessarily reflect the views of others.
Feature/OPED
In Praise of Nigeria’s Elite Memory Loss Clinic
By Busayo Cole
There’s an unacknowledged marvel in Nigeria, a national institution so revered and influential that its very mention invokes awe; and not a small dose of amnesia. I’m speaking, of course, about the glorious Memory Loss Clinic for the Elite, a facility where unsolved corruption cases go to receive a lifetime membership in our collective oblivion.
Take a walk down the memory lane of scandals past, and you’ll encounter a magical fog. Who remembers the details of the N2.5 billion pension fund scam? Anyone? No? Good. That’s exactly how the clinic works. Through a combination of political gymnastics, endless court adjournments, and public desensitisation, these cases are carefully wrapped in a blanket of vagueness. Brilliant, isn’t it?
The beauty of this clinic lies in its inclusivity. From the infamous Dasukigate, which popularised the phrase “arms deal” in Nigeria without actually arming anything, to the less publicised but equally mystifying NDDC palliative fund saga, the clinic accepts all cases with the same efficiency. Once enrolled, each scandal receives a standard treatment: strategic denial, temporary outrage, and finally, oblivion.
Not to be overlooked are the esteemed practitioners at this clinic: our very own politicians and public officials. Their commitment to forgetting is nothing short of Nobel-worthy. Have you noticed how effortlessly some officials transition from answering allegations one week to delivering keynote speeches on accountability the next? It’s an art form.
Then there’s the media, always ready to lend a hand. Investigative journalists dig up cases, splash them across headlines for a week or two, and then move on to the next crisis, leaving the current scandal to the skilled hands of the clinic’s erasure team. No one does closure better than us. Or rather, the lack thereof.
And let’s not forget the loyal citizens, the true heroes of this operation. We rant on social media, organise a protest or two, and then poof! Our collective short attention span is the lifeblood of the Memory Loss Clinic. Why insist on justice when you can unlook?
Take, for example, the Halliburton Scandal. In 2009, a Board of Inquiry was established under the leadership of Inspector-General of Police, Mike Okiro, to investigate allegations of a $182 million bribery scheme involving the American company Halliburton and some former Nigerian Heads of State. Despite Halliburton admitting to paying the bribes to secure a $6 billion contract for a natural gas plant, the case remains unresolved. The United States fined the companies involved, but in Nigeria, the victims of the corruption: ordinary citizens, received no compensation, and no one was brought to justice. The investigation, it seems, was yet another patient admitted to the clinic.
Or consider the Petroleum Trust Fund Probe, which unraveled in the late 1990s. Established during General Sani Abacha’s regime and managed by Major-General Muhammadu Buhari, the PTF’s operations were scrutinised when Chief Olusegun Obasanjo assumed office in 1999. The winding-down process uncovered allegations of mismanagement, dubious dealings, and a sudden, dramatic death of a key figure, Salihijo Ahmad, the head of the PTF’s sole management consultant. Despite the drama and the revelations, the case quietly faded into obscurity, leaving Nigerians with more questions than answers.
Then there is the colossal case of under-remittance of oil and gas royalties and taxes. The Federal Government, through the Special Presidential Investigatory Panel (SPIP), accused oil giants like Shell, Agip, and the NNPC of diverting billions of dollars meant for public coffers. Allegations ranged from falsified production figures to outright embezzlement. Despite detailed accusations and court proceedings, the cases were abandoned after the SPIP’s disbandment in 2019. As usual, the trail of accountability disappeared into thin air, leaving the funds unaccounted for and the public betrayed yet again.
Of course, this institution isn’t without its critics. Some stubborn Nigerians still insist on remembering. Creating spreadsheets, tracking cases, and daring to demand accountability. To these radicals, I say: why fight the tide? Embrace the convenience of selective amnesia. Life is easier when you don’t worry about where billions disappeared to or why someone’s cousin’s uncle’s housemaid’s driver has an oil block.
As World Anti-Corruption Day comes and goes, let us celebrate the true innovation of our time. While other nations are busy prosecuting offenders and recovering stolen funds, we have mastered the fine art of forgetting. Who needs convictions when you have a clinic this efficient? Oh, I almost forgot the anti-corruption day as I sent my draft to a correspondent very late. Don’t blame me, I am just a regular at the clinic.
So, here’s to Nigeria’s Memory Loss Clinic, a shining beacon of how to “move on” without actually moving forward. May it continue to thrive, because let’s face it: without it, what would we do with all these unsolved corruption cases? Demand justice? That’s asking a lot. Better to forget and focus on the next election season. Who knows? We might even re-elect a client of the clinic. Wouldn’t that be poetic?
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have a new scandal to ignore.
Busayo Cole is a Branding and Communications Manager who transforms abstract corporate goals into actionable, sparkling messaging. It’s rumored that 90% of his strategic clarity is powered by triple-shot espresso, and the remaining 10% is sheer panic. He can be reached via busayo@busayocole.com.
Feature/OPED
How Nigerian Companies are Leading More Responsible Digital Transformation
By Kehinde Ogundare
Artificial intelligence is everywhere–in polished social media posts, in the recommendations that guide our viewing habits, and in the bots that handle customer queries before a human agent steps in. On LinkedIn, AI-assisted writing has become standard practice.
A year ago, more than half of English long-form posts that went viral were estimated to have been written by or assisted by AI. If that’s the norm on the world’s biggest business network, it’s no surprise that AI is driving conversations in Nigerian boardrooms as companies move from experimentation to embedding AI into their daily operations.
Part of the package
The Nigeria Data Protection Act (NDPA), modelled on the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation, together with the Nigeria Data Protection Commission, requires companies to build privacy into their systems from the outset rather than adding it later. This clear regulatory framework has evolved alongside a rapid rise in AI adoption.
New research from Zoho on responsible AI adoption highlights the impact of the regulations. As per the report, 93% of Nigerian companies have already started using AI in their daily operations; 84% have tightened their privacy controls after adoption, and 94% now have a dedicated privacy officer or team, which is well above global averages.
The survey, conducted by Arion Research LLC among 386 senior executives, shows just how deeply embedded AI has become in Nigeria. One in four companies already uses it across several departments, and nearly a third report advanced integration. Financial services firms are pioneers in this sector, using AI to automate client interactions, streamline operations and sharpen their marketing, while staying compliant with data protection rules.
The NDPA has helped make privacy part of business planning. Four in ten companies now spend more than 30% of their IT budgets on privacy. Regular audits, privacy impact assessments and explainability checks are becoming standard practice.
Skills, compliance and capacity
Rapid adoption brings challenges. More than a third of businesses say that their biggest obstacle is a lack of technical skills, and another 35% cite privacy and security risks. Instead of outsourcing, most are building capacity in-house: nearly 70% of companies are training staff in data analysis, more than half are improving general AI literacy, and 40% are investing in prompt engineering for generative tools.
The understanding of the NDPA regulation, which came into force in 2023, has also improved. 65% of organisations see compliance as essential. Many voluntarily apply data-minimisation and transparency standards even when not required to do so, aligning more closely with international norms and easing collaboration with global partners.
Privacy is increasingly influencing business decisions — from investment priorities to system design. Companies are asking tougher questions: is specific data essential? How can exposure be limited? How can fairness and transparency be proven?
Trusted systems
As privacy becomes part of how technology is built, companies are being more cautious about the tools they use because they now want systems that protect customer data, with clear boundaries between data and model training, straightforward controls, and reliable records for compliance teams.
Demand for business software that balances productivity with privacy is also growing. Zoho, among others, has seen strong customer growth as more organisations are looking for platforms that support responsible data handling.
The study identifies three main reasons behind AI adoption: to make work more efficient by automating routine tasks, to support better decision-making by identifying patterns sooner, and to improve customer engagement through faster, more relevant interactions. But none of this can succeed without trust. Nigeria’s experience shows that privacy and innovation can reinforce each other when they’re built together.
There’s still work to do because some industries are moving faster than others, and smaller businesses often face the biggest hurdles in time, cost and skills. Enforcement is also patchy; while the law is clear, application across sectors and geographies is a work in progress.
The next steps are more practical, requiring investment in skills – from data analysis and AI literacy to sector-specific training – and for governance to be put in place, with clear responsibilities, written policies, and a plan for managing errors or breaches. Privacy impact assessments should become part of every new system rollout, enabled by technology.
As AI becomes fundamental to doing business, Nigerian companies that build it carefully and responsibly will be better able to compete at home and abroad.
Kehinde Ogundare is the Country Head for Zoho Nigeria
Feature/OPED
Nigeria’s Schools Closure and the Disease of Rhotacism
By Prince Charles Dickson, PhD
The inability to pronounce the letter r is called rhotacism—a quiet irony in speech pathology, where sufferers lack the tongue to name their condition. Nigeria today appears afflicted by a similar policy disorder: an incapacity to articulate the real threats to learning, safety, and development, while endlessly announcing their symptoms. The reflexive closure of schools across states, often with the Federal Government’s blessing, is not merely a security response; it is a linguistic failure of governance. We cannot pronounce the problem, so we silence the classroom.
At surface level, school closures masquerade as prudence. No leader wants abducted children, grieving parents, viral outrage. But development practice teaches us to distrust surface logic. If classrooms are unsafe, what calculus deems campuses secure? If primary schools are closed in the name of vulnerability, why do lecture halls hum, convocation grounds fill, churches and mosques swell, markets bustle, and political rallies roar? The policy geometry is incoherent. Risk does not dissolve with age brackets or academic levels; it migrates along opportunity lines. Violence, like water, flows where barriers are weakest—not where regulations are loudest.
The headline figures tell a damning story. Over 42,000 schools categorized as vulnerable. A $30 million Safe School Initiative announced, lauded, and then largely evaporated into PowerPoint memory. What exactly has closure achieved in this arithmetic? If risk prompted closure, closure must prompt mitigation. Yet what we witness is substitution, not solution. Strategy is replaced by symbolism. Doors are shut to demonstrate action while the engines of threat, the logistics, financing, intelligence gaps, and ungoverned spaces remain scandalously intact.
The first ethical question is not poetic distrust; it is arithmetic ethics. How many days of learning are lost per closure? How many children drift permanently out of school into child labor, early marriage, recruitment pipelines, or migration traps? Empirical evidence across fragile contexts, from the Sahel to Northeast Nigeria, shows that prolonged closures fracture educational trajectories irreversibly. A classroom shut today becomes a livelihood foreclosed tomorrow. When education systems stall, insecurity does not retreat; it recruits.
Development is not administered by press statements. It is built through boring, relentless infrastructure—data infrastructure, trust infrastructure, and response infrastructure. Consider Community Early Warning Systems (CEWS). Where they exist and function, attacks are anticipated, routes mapped, and escalation interrupted. Where they are absent, closure becomes the blunt instrument of last resort. Yet how many states have meaningfully integrated CEWS into school security architecture? How many have empowered bodies to convene multi-actor protection coalitions that include women, youth, traditional leaders, transport unions, and faith networks? The chalk does not hold risk; the cheque does. And the cheque has been shamefully mute.
Security is not the absence of pupils; it is the presence of intelligence. Closing schools without opening data is policy rhotacism. We cannot pronounce “threat mapping,” so we mouth “shutdown.” We cannot say “transport node vulnerability,” so we say “holiday.” We cannot articulate “perimeter hardening and community interception routes,” so we declare “postponement.” The oxygen of risk—enrolment points, travel corridors, marketplaces abutting school fences requires monitoring in real time. If threat mapping did not intensify the moment schools closed, then the threat merely changed address, not behavior.
The contradiction deepens when worship spaces remain open. Christian Association of Nigeria congregations gather. Nigeria Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs convenes faithful. If the doctrine is crowd risk, the exemptions are indefensible. If the doctrine is youth vulnerability, then universities must not be exempt. If the doctrine is intelligence deficit, then closure is an admission of systemic failure. You cannot claim safety by relocating learning into chaos. Faith spaces recognize a truth policy forgets: protection flows from relationship density. The congregation knows its strangers. Does the school gate?
Globally, contexts plagued by school-related violence have moved in the opposite direction—not toward retreat, but toward smart hardening. Drone reconnaissance over school corridors. AI-assisted risk scoring that fuses incident data, weather, market days, and movement patterns. Platforms to defuse land, grazing, and community disputes before they metastasize into school-adjacent violence. Psychosocial resilience units embedded in schools. Community rangers trained, insured, and supervised, not as vigilantes but as guardians accountable to law. Transparent pilots with public dashboards. Sanctions for local leaders who ignore warning signals. None of this is theoretical.
Because closure is administratively convenient. It transfers responsibility from execution to explanation. Once schools are shut, failure becomes abstract. Metrics blur. When exactly did the risk reduce? Who measures it? At what threshold does reopening occur? Without benchmarks, closure becomes the chief KPI of insecurity governance. That is not security architecture; it is security bureaucracy—forms without force, memos without muscle.
Local Government Areas on volatile frontiers—whether in Niger State or Kogi are living laboratories of conciliation culture. Traditional dispute resolution, faith mediation, women-led early warning, youth intelligence networks; these are not weaknesses to be ignored until Abuja’s biro approves boots on the ground. They are strengths to be funded, trained, and supervised. Development practice demands co-design. Are LGA leaders co-authoring protection protocols, or passively awaiting circulars? Centralization kills time; time kills children’s futures.
The opportunity costs of closure are staggering and gendered. Girls pay first and longest. Distance learning fantasies collapse where electricity, devices, and safety at home are uneven. Boys drift into non-state labor or armed networks promising income and belonging. Teachers disengage. Trust between communities and state frays further. When schools finally reopen—if they do—the damage is cumulative. Closure does not pause risk; it compounds it.
There is also a moral hazard. Normalizing closure teaches adversaries what works. Disrupt learning to extract concessions. Threaten the symbol to paralyze the system. Deterrence requires resilience. A state that keeps schools open while hardening them sends a different signal: intimidation will not erase futures.
To be clear, this is not romantic defiance. There are moments when temporary closure is warranted. But temporary requires temporality: timelines, triggers, alternatives. Closure without an accompanying surge in intelligence, infrastructure, and accountability is futility dressed as care. It is rhotacism—the inability to name and thus cure the disease.
So, the unperfumed questions must persist. What exactly is being done differently today that was not urgent yesterday? Where are the transparent pilots funded by the Safe School Initiative? Who owns the dashboards? Which perimeters were hardened, which routes monitored, which sanctions enforced? Who measures risk reduction, and when is bureaucracy upgraded into architecture?
Shutting schools may shelter minds briefly. But without strategy that attacks the root—financing of violence, data blindness, local exclusion, and accountability gaps—it only shelters the conscience of policy. Until answers arrive with evidence of execution, Nigeria’s schools are not closed for safety. They are closed for convenience. And convenience, like rhotacism, leaves us unable to pronounce the truth. May Nigeria win.
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