Feature/OPED
NBS and Scorecard of Eclipsing Administration
By Jerome-Mario Chijioke Utomi
With a few days to the May 29 inauguration of the new administration in the country, it is glaringly evident that President Muhammadu Buhari-led Federal Government of Nigeria has successfully completed its constitutional two terms of eight years. Though there exists no codified, metered or iron-cast way of assessing the administration’s performance, it is, however, assumed that an administration that spanned eight years must have milestone(s) of achievement to point at.
Indeed, while there are flicker and recognizable flashes of achievements in some sectors of the nation, interim particulars, in my view, suggest that infrastructural provision is the administration’s greatest accomplishment.
The crucial point, then, is how does one define what constitutes infrastructural success and how was it achieved? What are/were the opportunity cost of the purported success?
In February 2021, President Buhari reportedly established the Infrastructure Corporation of Nigeria (InfraCorp), with an initial seed capital of N1 trillion, provided by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA) and the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC). InfraCorp was also expected to mobilize an additional N14 trillion of debt capital.
Through InfraCorp, Buhari catalysed and accelerated investment into Nigeria’s infrastructure sector via originating, structuring, executing and managing end-to-end bankable projects in the country,
Today, the administration has to its credit 56km Lagos-Ibadan Standard Gauge Rail completed and commissioned within a Nigerian-record-time of 4 years (2017 to 2021); 186km Abuja-Kaduna Standard Gauge Rail Line completed and commissioned in 2016; 327km Itakpe-Warri Standard Gauge Rail completed and commissioned in 2020, 33 years after construction began.
Also, the administration, going by media reports, invested over a billion dollars in three flagship projects: Lagos-Ibadan Expressway (for completion in May 2023), Second Niger Bridge (for completion in May 2023), Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Expressway (two of three sections for completion in May 2023), among others.
Even when this piece holds the opinion that the administration demonstrated an understanding of the pivotal role infrastructural provision plays in providing society with the services that underpin the ability of people to be economically productive, it will, on the other hand, objectively qualify the aforementioned achievements as sparse and insufficient, particularly when juxtaposed with a catalogue of adequately unattended sectors (education, security, Power, Niger Delta region labour and employment etc.).
In fact, each time I reflect on President Buhari’s eight-year administration, the fears expressed by a friend in 2015 about the present administration come flooding.
Adding context to the discourse, my friend, amidst euphoria triggered by the declaration of the 2015 presidential election result, cautioned me with these few words; “men will change their ruler expecting to fair better; this expectation induces them to take up arm against him, but they only deceive themselves, and they learn from experience that they have made matters worse.”
Still, in that milieu, I had reminded him that the result ushered in a season of integrity in the country, and he again replied thus; “no single attribute could be identified as a virtue. Remember,” adding that, “Politics has its own rules.”
Eight years after that conversation, I cannot categorically say that my friend was right or wrong in his prediction. But the present instinct in the country explains two things; first, apart from the fact that the shout of integrity which hitherto rend the nation’s political space has as the light faded, jeer has since overtaken the cheers of political performance while fears have displaced reason -resulting in an entirely separate set of consequences – irrational hatred and division.
The reason for this spiralling feeling is understandable!
Take, as an illustration, in 2020 alone; there were outright abridgements of the masses’ welfare by the federal government via the increase of Value Added Tax (VAT) from 5 per cent to 7.5 per cent, re-introduction of Stamp Duty Charge, re-introduction of Stamp Duty on house rents and C of O transactions, electricity and petrol price hikes crisis among others. These were inextricably linked both in their causes and solutions.
Each of these challenges has its roots in the administration’s payment of little attention or lip service to expert warnings about the poor state of the economy, and further fed by the federal government’s persistent formulation of policies with no clear definition of the problem, the goals to be achieved, or the means chose to address the problems and to achieve the goals; adoption of coquettish tactics that make the masses fall in love with excitement while they (leaders) remain inwardly detached; keeping them in control.
There are very recent examples.
According to a recent report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), it stated that in April 2023, the headline inflation rate rose to 22.22% relative to March 2023 headline inflation rate, which was 22.04%. Looking at the movement, the April 2023 inflation rate increased by 0.18% compared to the March 2023 headline inflation rate.
Similarly, on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 5.40% points higher compared to the rate recorded in April 2022, which was 16.82%. This shows that the headline inflation rate on a year-on-year basis increased in April 2023 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., April 2022).
Likewise, the report added that on a month-on-month basis, the All-Items Index in April 2023 was 1.91%, 0.05% higher than the rate recorded in March 2023 (1.86%). This means that in April 2023, on average, the general price level was 0.05% higher relative to March 2023. The percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve months ending April 2023 over the average for the previous twelve months was 20.82%, showing a 4.37% increase compared to the 16.45% recorded in April 2022.
While the above qualifies as an occurrence that its pain is deepened by the fact that it was avoidable, it is important to underline further that if there is a particular area where the present administration cannot boast of clean hands, it is in the incessant debt accumulation(foreign and domestic).
It is common knowledge that in January 2023, Patience Oniha, the Director-General of the Debt Management Office (DMO), while fielding questions from journalists at the public presentation and breakdown of the highlights of the 2023 Appropriation Act in Abuja, noted that the incoming federal government would inherit about N77 trillion as debt by the time President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure ends in May.
Aside from signalling an indication that Nigerians should expect a tough time ahead or, better still, may not anticipate a superlative performance from the incoming administrations as they will, from inception, be overburdened by debt, what is, however, ‘newsy’ is that each time the present federal government went for these loans, Nigerians were usually told that the loan seeks to stimulate the national economy, making it more competitive by focusing on infrastructural development, delivery of inclusive growth and prioritizing the welfare of Nigerians to safeguard lives and property; equipping farmers with high tools, technology and techniques; empowering and enabling mines to operate in a safe and secured environment and training of our youths through the revival of our vocational institutions to ensure they are competitive enough to seize the opportunities that will arise for this economic revival.”
Again, it is evident from the above that the nation did not arrive at its present state of indebtedness by accident but through a well-programmed plan of actions and inactions that engineered national poverty and bred indebtedness. The state of affairs dates back to so many years in the life of the present federal government.
As noted in my recent and similar intervention, the nation was warned with mountains of evidence that this was coming; it was also pointed out that under the present condition of indebtedness, it may be thought audacious to talk of creating a better society while the country battles with the problems of battered economy arising from indebtedness, yet, our leaders who are never ready to serve or save the citizens ignored the warnings describing it as a prank. Now we have learnt a very ‘’useful’’ lesson that we can no longer ignore.
In 2019, the rising debt profile of the country dominated discussion when the Senate opened debate on the general principles of the 2019 Appropriation Bill. Most of the contributors to the referenced debate asked the executive to exercise some level of caution on its borrowing plan to not return the country to a heavily indebted nation it exited in 2005 through Paris Club debt relief.
Senate Leader, Mr Ahmed Lawan (as he then was), kicked off the debate when he read, “A Bill for an Act to authorize the issue from the Consolidated Revenue Fund of the Federation the total sum of N8,826,636,578,915 only, of which N492,360,342,965 only, is for Statutory Transfers, N2,264,014,113,092 only, is for Debt Service, N4,038,557,664,767 only, is for Recurrent (Non-Debt) Expenditure while the sum of N2,031,754,458,902 only is for contribution to the Development Fund for capital Expenditure for the year ending on 31st day of December 2019.”
While noting that the budget deficit will be funded through borrowing, Lawan, among other things, stated, “About 89% of the deficit (N1.65 trillion) will be financed through new borrowings while about N210 billion is expected from the proceeds of privatization of some public enterprises. Debt Service/Revenue Ratio, which was high as 69% in 2017, has led to concerns being raised about the sustainability of the nation’s debt.”
Reacting to Lawan’s words, many Nigerians raised the alarm about the country’s rising debt profile. They noted that though the budget estimates should be given expeditious consideration and passage in view of the time already lost, the borrowing plan contained in the Bill should be properly scrutinized. They insisted that scrutinizing the borrowing plan became necessary to prevent the country from exceeding its borrowing limit when juxtaposed with the ratio of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Even some Senators, in their submissions, frowned at the nation’s increased borrowing proposals on our yearly budget, which they described as becoming unbearable.
“Yes, money must be sought by any government to fund infrastructure, but it must not be solely anchored on borrowing, which in the long run, will take the country back to a problem it had earlier solved.
“Besides, there are other creative ways of funding such highly needed infrastructure.”
Others at that time were particularly not happy that the debt profile of the country would soon rise to $60 billion from less than the $20 billion it was before the present government came to power in 2015. While they noted that the components of the $60 billion debt profile include $23 billion external debt and $20 billion local debts, these concerned Nigerians observed with dissatisfaction that another $12 billion was already being processed for presentation to the National Assembly to finance Port Harcourt to Maiduguri rail lines.
Still, on the 2019 budget borrowing proposal, it noted that “Nigeria is gradually turning to a chartered borrowing nation under this government all in the name of funding infrastructure. “This must be stopped because the future of the country and, in particular, lives of generations yet unborn are being put in danger.” Even with the high level of indebtedness of the country, “the government in power is planning to further devalue the Naira to about N500 to one US dollar,” they concluded.
Similarly, in February 2022, Economic experts going by media reports urged the federal government to seek a debt moratorium and reduce the cost of governance to reduce funds expended on debt servicing, as it stands as the best available option.
This, according to them, will enable the government to suspend payment for now and re-strategize – particularly, the government cannot continue to service its rising debt profile at the expense of meeting the competing needs of the people, a similar expert warning was recently handed by economic analysts that the federal government’s soaring borrowings could eventually suffocate the country if not mitigated.
Indeed, from the above torrents of explanation/concern expressed by these experts, this piece clearly agrees that ‘Nigeria’s debt stock has finally become an issue that calls for a more drastic approach to support the fiscal and monetary authorities to tow the nation’s economy out of the doldrums.
Qualifying the above sad account as a bad commentary is the awareness that despite these prophecies of foreknowledge which deals with what is certain to come, and prophesy of denunciation, which on its part, tells what is to come if the present situation is not changed; both acting as information and warning respectively, the President Muhammadu Buhari led federal government has become even more entrenched in borrowing, ignoring these warning signals.
In 2020, one of the reputable national newspapers in Nigeria, in its editorial comment, among other observations, noted that Nigeria would be facing another round of fiscal headwinds this year with the mix of $83 billion debt, rising recurrent expenditure, increased cost of debt servicing; sustained fall in revenue; and about $22 billion debt plan waiting for legislative approval. It may be worse if the anticipated shocks from the global economy, like Brexit, the United States-China trade war and the interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve Bank, go awry. The nation’s debt stock, currently at $ 83 billion, comes with a huge debt service provision over N2.1 trillion in 2019, but set to rise in 2020. This challenge stems from the country’s revenue crisis, which has remained unabating in the last five years, while the borrowings have persisted, an indication that the economy has been primed for recurring tough outcomes, the report concluded.
The situation says something else.
Another news report within the same time frame indicated that the federal government made a total of N3.25tn in 2020, and out of which it spent a total of N2.34tn on debt servicing within the year. This means, the report underlined, that 72 per cent of the government’s revenue was spent on debt servicing. It also puts the government’s debt servicing to revenue ratio at 72 per cent.
It was in the news that PricewaterhouseCoopers, a multinational professional services network of firms operating as partnerships under the PwC brand, in a report entitled; ‘Nigeria Economic Alert: Assessing the 2021 FGN Budget.’, warned that the increasing cost of servicing the debt would continue to weigh on the federal government’s revenue profile. It said, “Actual debt servicing cost in 2020 stood at N3.27tn and represented about 10 per cent over the budgeted amount of N2.95tn. This puts the debt-to-revenue ratio at approximately 83 per cent, nearly double the 46 per cent that was budgeted. This implies that about N83 out of every N100, the federal government earned was used to settle interest payments for outstanding domestic and foreign debts within the reference period. In 2021, the FG plans to spend N3.32tn to service its outstanding debt. This is slightly higher than the N2.95tn budgeted in 2020.”
Today, such fears raised cannot be described as unfounded, just as this author doesn’t need to be an economist to know that as a nation, we have become a high-risk borrower.
Looking at the above facts, this piece holds the opinion that the present debt profile presently crushing the country may not have occurred by accident.
And, even as the nation goes on a borrowing spree and speeds on the ‘borrowing lane’, and at a time the World Bank indicates that “almost half of the poor people in Sub-Saharan Africa live in just five countries: and they are in this order, namely; Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Madagascar, the situation becomes more painful when one remembers that no one, not even the federal government can truly explain the objective of these loans and whether they were utilized in the masses best interest.
It would have been understandable if these loans were taken to build a standard rail system in the country that would assist the poor village farmers in Benue/Kano and other remote villages situated in the landlocked parts of the country, move their produce to the food disadvantaged cities in the south in ways that will help the poor farmers earn more money, contribute to lower food prices in Lagos and other cities through the impact on the operation of the market, increase the welfare of household both in Kano, Benue, Lagos and others while improving food security in the country, reduce stress/pressure daily mounted on Nigerian roads by articulated/haulage of vehicles and drastically reduce road accidents on our major highways.
Again, it would have been pardonable if the loan were deployed to revitalise the nation’s electricity sector, to re-introduce a sustainable power roadmap that will erase the epileptic power challenge in the country and, in its place, restore the health and vitality of the nation’s socioeconomic life while improving small and medium scale business in the country.
By Michael Owhoko, PhD
Who will restore Warri back to its glorious days? A city that was once the pride of all Wafarians, is now a shadow of itself, rusty and reeking with aroma of poverty occasioned by systemic decline with people cocooned in deprivation and squalor.Warri is allusively known as Wafi, making the people and residents of the city identified as Wafarians.
I was close to tears during my recent visit where I toured the length and breadth of Warri, covering Deco Road, Okumagba Avenue, Okere Road, McCiver, Odion Road, Market Road, Cemetery Road, Iyara, McDermott Road, Warri-Sapele Road, Upper and Lower Erejuwa, Ajamogha, Esisi, and Warri Port. I stayed for over two months, the longest since my relocation to Lagos in 1984.
All I saw was a distressed and a dying city with shattered dreams, shrinking hopes, and diminished opportunities induced by capital flight and economic disorders. It is a metaphor for youth unemployment, dwindling aspirations, and social chaos, where people just labour under profound deficit constrained by rationed resources, owing to lack of fresh capital from investors.
Indeed, Warri is choking from severe economic dehydration, with all available spaces in front of buildings converted into small shops where people engaged in petty trading and POS businesses, making the whole streets look like mini-markets. This is further worsened by the large number of keke tricycles almost outstripping the populace with attendant heavy noise emission. Even the dead have no peace in Warri as the entrance to the only cemetery in the town has been overtaken by petty traders, and keke tricycles mechanics, leaving a small gate forentry.
How did such a once vibrant cosmopolitan city that attracted global presence, including investors, and played host to several notable national and international events, degenerated into a rural enclave with dilapidated structures? What went wrong, and who created the mess which have betrayed the values and ideals that once held Wafarians together in unity and love?
While it is easy to link Warri’s stunted growth to the unending ethnic rivalry among the Itsekiris, Urhobos and Ijaws, for posterity, it is also important to specifically identify those, whose actions, directly or indirectly,have contributed to the city’s appalling condition, which has brought shame and embarrassment to the collective psyche of Wafarians.
First, the opposition of Warri as capital of Delta State at the creation by Itsekiri leaders, led by His Royal Majesty, the Olu of Warri, AtuwatseII, have done more harm to the general good of Warri, and setting the city backward. The deficit outcome has made the motive designed to protect the Itsekiri’s ethnic interests pale into insignificance.
What is the gain of this stand within the context of development, other than fear of Urhobo domination, and the need to thwart it? This was an obvious delusion, and no amount of rationalization can justify the mess that has eclipsed Warri. It was a miscalculation. Sacrificing the city’s progress on the altar of narrow ethnic interest was a tragedy.
Unfortunately, former military President, Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) further complicated the matter when he failed to demonstrate objective governance, taking advantage of the Itsekiri’s disapproval of Warri as capital to illogically site the capital of Delta State in Asaba, hometown of his wife. It was the height of absurdity in decision making, and a study in bad leadership.Had the ethnic trust deficit in Warri been bridged and the ethnic groups unite to demand Warri as capital, the city would have been better transformed with infrastructural advantage typical of a modern capital city, attracting foreign investors, to the benefit of all.
Second, the unending contention over ownership of Warri township among Urhobos, Itsekiris and Ijaws, over the years, have continued to promote ethnic animosity and discord, contributing immensely to the backwardness of the city. Those who started this tussle have since passed on, without adding any value to their respective ethnic groups.Sadly, this bitter ethnic rivalry is being passed on to succeeding generations, who have foolishly continued in this trajectory to spread hate, rather than live in harmony as neighbours, to achieve enduring peace and development in Warri.
It should be noted that these ownership claims are exercise in futility, as either of these ethnic groups, can practically dislodge one another to take physical possession of any habitation. For example, just as it is practically impossible for the Urhobos to evict the Itsekiris from Okere, it is also unrealistic for the Itsekiris to dispossess the Ijaws of Ogbe-Ijaw land.
And so, brandishing colonial and post-colonial court judgements and papers as proof of ownership, is insignificant and waste of energies. The three ethnic groups must bury their pride and ego, and live together peacefully as Wafarians, bound by common cultural affinity, so that Warri can experience peace and progress again.
Third, ethnic leaders that directly or indirectly encourage and incite their youth to resort to violence, and sometimes, carry arms to threaten, destroy or kill their neighbours over land, have nothing to gain other than misery and poverty. Ironically, it is the innocent children of the poor that are used for such senseless conflict, while the children of the rich, enjoy comfort in safe haven in faraway Lagos, Abuja, London, USA or Canada.
Besides, the parents of most of these gullible youth being used to perpetuate these crimes, have no ancestral root, and properties in Warri township. Destruction and mayhem only leave in their trail, economic decline, unemployment, anguish, suffering, hardship and poverty, as investors will flee with their capital from a hostile environment, as shown with the exit of numerous companies in the city.
Lessons ought to have been learnt from the Ijaw-Itsekiri conflict which lasted from 1997 to 1999 over siting of Warri South West Local Government Area Headquarters. At the end of that war, both parties counted only losses, no benefit, no value addition, and no reward. Regrettably, companies that were hitherto sources of sustained fresh capital in Warri, relocated to other cities, bringing lackand despair to Warri and its environs. There must not be a repeat of such a senseless ethnic war, as Warri may never survive a second experience.
The effect of the Ijaw-Itsekiri fight led to exit of companies like Pan Ocean, Schlumberger, Halliburton, Shell Petroleum Development Company, (SPDC), ELF, Conoco-Phillips, Agip, WEAFRI, NISSCO, Globestar, McDermott, DBN, WESCO, Hercules Offshore Nigeria, Nigeria Dredging & Marine, LAMNALCO, and Dunlop.
Others include Saipem, Seismograph Services Limited, Snamprogetti, Dowell, Anadrill, Baroid, Santafe, Oceaneering, Kingsway, Leventis, West Minster Dredging, John Holt, SCOA, Glorylux, United African Company (UAC), Mandillas, Nestoil together with maritime and shipping firms located inside the Nigerian Ports Authority, Warri.
The companies not only left with their investment; they also left behind high unemployment rate of approximately 80 per cent in Warri. Except for Chevron Nigeria Limited, and perhaps, recently, Tantita Security Services Limited, through which fresh funds are being injected into the economy of Warri, the condition of the town would have been catastrophic.
Fourth, those that engage in collection of “deve” (development) fee as precondition for commencement of project, and also, who forcefully demand employment and contract slots from companies, have also contributed to the poor condition of Warri. By their actions, companies, including small business enterprises and individuals, are frustrated and discouraged from establishing businesses in the city, thereby compounding the unemployment burden.
Fifth, the non-operational Warri Port has also added to the economic hardship in Warri. Ocean-going vessels that used to berth, servicing business interests in neighbouring Effurun, Udu, Benin City, Onitsha, Asaba, and the environs, are no more. This is further worsened by the collapse of adjoining companies like the Delta Steel Company, Owvian-Aladja and Warri Refinery and Petrochemical Company, Ekpan, which has taken a huge toll on Warri life.
It is, therefore, imperative for the ethnic groups to redirect their energies to promote peace and unity, in order to restore investors’ confidence.The Ijaws, Urhobos and Itsekiris’ leaders can also leverage their common cultural ties, as expressed in food, clothes, trade, history, and festivals to boost Warri’s economy. For example, Warri cultural celebrations like Agbassa Juju (Idju Owhurie Festival) and Okere Juju (Awankere Festival) can be bolstered and turned into major tourists’ destination, as part of strategy to make Warri great again.
Dr Mike Owhoko, Lagos-based public policy analyst, author, and journalist, can be reached at www.mikeowhoko.com, and followed on X {formerly Twitter} @michaelowhoko.
By Diana Tenebe
Nigeria stands at a critical juncture, faced with a demographic reality that is both its greatest asset and a significant challenge. With a population where almost 70% are under the age of 30, the nation’s future is undeniably in the hands of its youth.
Yet, the agricultural sector, the traditional backbone of the economy, is in a state of crisis, with an aging farming population and a notable disinterest from the younger generation. This disconnect poses a serious threat to our food security, economic stability, and long-term sustainable development. To navigate this, Nigeria must embark on a deliberate and multi-faceted mission to transform agriculture from a career of last resort into a dynamic, profitable, and respected profession for its youth.
The perception of farming as a life of drudgery, poverty, and limited opportunity is deeply ingrained in the minds of many young Nigerians. This is not without reason. The sector is often associated with backbreaking labor, outdated methods, and significant financial risk. The lack of access to land, credit, and modern technology creates a formidable barrier to entry, pushing aspiring young people towards often non-existent or poorly paid urban jobs. This exodus from rural areas exacerbates the issue, leaving an agricultural sector in need of fresh ideas and a renewed workforce.
To reverse this trend, we must begin by transforming the very image of agriculture. Education is the key. Integrating agriculture, food, and nutrition into the national curriculum from primary school upwards can fundamentally change how young people view the sector. By making it a compulsory subject in secondary schools, we can equip students with practical knowledge and foster an appreciation for the vast opportunities within the food system. School gardens and ‘Farm to School’ initiatives can provide hands-on experience, connecting young minds with the processes of food production and the rewards of a healthy community. By promoting farming as a business, not just a means of subsistence, we can highlight its potential for profitability and professionalism.
Crucially, young Nigerians need to see that success in agriculture is not just possible, but a reality. Showcasing successful young farmers and agripreneurs through media campaigns, documentaries, and digital platforms like Agribusiness TV can provide powerful role models. These stories of innovation, resilience, and financial success can inspire a new generation to reconsider their career paths. Peer-to-peer learning, where successful young farmers share their evidence-based success, is an effective way to demonstrate the viability of modern agricultural practices and encourage others to follow suit.
Beyond changing perceptions, we must address the tangible barriers to entry. Access to finance is paramount. Innovative funding models, including grants, subsidies, and venture capital funds specifically for young agricultural entrepreneurs, can ease the initial burden of starting an agribusiness. Policy reforms that simplify land acquisition and promote cooperative farming models are essential to ensure young people have access to the resources they need. Furthermore, providing training in technical, business, and financial literacy will empower them to develop robust business plans and attract investment.
Perhaps the most potent tool for attracting Nigeria’s tech-savvy youth is technology itself. Modern agriculture is a far cry from the old-school image of a farmer with a hoe. Digital technologies, from mobile apps that provide real-time market prices to blockchain for product traceability, can connect young farmers directly to markets and streamline their operations. The introduction of technologies like hydroponics, aquaponics, and automated farm machinery not only reduces drudgery but also offers attractive, quick-return opportunities. By promoting agri-tech startups and establishing ICT training centers for rural youth, we can position agriculture as a hub of innovation.
The government has a vital role to play in fostering an enabling environment. Initiatives like the National Young Farmers Scheme and partnerships such as the one between the Federal Government and Niger State to empower 100,000 youths are commendable steps. Continued public investment, alongside the involvement of youth in policy dialogue, will signal a genuine commitment to their future in the sector.
Engaging Nigeria’s youth in agriculture is not merely an option—it is a national imperative. By transforming perception, enhancing access to resources, and leveraging technology, we can unlock their immense potential, ensuring a sustainable and prosperous future for the entire nation. The time to act is now.
Diana Tenebe is the Chief Operating Officer of Foodstuff Store
Feature/OPED
Artificial Intelligence: The Indispensable Catalyst for Nigeria’s Agricultural Revolution
By Diana Tenebe
Nigeria’s agricultural sector, a cornerstone of its economy, faces a critical crossroads. While employing a staggering 40% of the population and holding over 84 million hectares of arable land, the industry is hobbled by deep-seated challenges. Low productivity, a fragmented supply chain, poor infrastructure, and a lack of access to financial services are just a few of the hurdles that prevent the sector from reaching its full potential. Coupled with the unpredictable and severe shocks of climate change—from prolonged droughts to devastating floods—these issues threaten the food security of a rapidly growing population.
To truly transform this vital sector, a new approach is needed, one that moves beyond traditional methods and embraces the power of technology. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is not just a futuristic buzzword; it is the imperative for Nigeria’s agricultural revolution. AI holds the key to unlocking higher yields, building resilience, and fostering an inclusive and sustainable food system that can feed a nation and drive economic growth.
The most immediate impact of AI is in the area of precision farming. By integrating AI with technologies like Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, drones, and satellite imagery, farmers can gain an unprecedented understanding of their land. AI-powered systems can analyse real-time data on soil moisture, nutrient levels, and plant health, providing actionable insights for targeted interventions. For instance, smart irrigation systems can optimize water usage, a critical resource in a country facing increasing water scarcity. AI-enabled drones can survey vast farmlands in minutes, identifying early signs of pests or disease and allowing for precise application of pesticides, reducing chemical use and cost. Early trials of these technologies in Nigeria have already demonstrated significant gains, with some reports showing a remarkable 60-70% increase in crop yields.
Climate adaptation is another area where AI’s role is indispensable. Nigeria’s farmers are on the front lines of climate change, enduring erratic rainfall and extreme weather events. AI can provide a shield against this volatility. By analyzing historical weather data and real-time forecasts, AI models can offer accurate, localized predictions. This allows farmers to proactively adjust their planting schedules, select climate-resilient crop varieties, and plan for potential risks, effectively mitigating the devastating impact of droughts and floods.
The economic benefits extend far beyond the farm gate. A significant portion of Nigeria’s agricultural produce is lost due to an inefficient and fragmented supply chain. AI can streamline logistics, optimize transportation routes, and enhance inventory management. By reducing spoilage and waste, AI ensures that more of what is harvested reaches the market, thereby boosting the incomes of farmers and providing a more stable supply of food for consumers. The success of Nigerian agritech companies like Crop2Cash, which has reportedly helped over 500,000 farmers increase their income by up to 70%, demonstrates the tangible economic impact of these technologies.
AI is a powerful tool for promoting financial inclusion and education. Millions of smallholder farmers, who form the backbone of Nigerian agriculture, are often excluded from formal financial systems due to a lack of collateral and credit history. AI-driven fintech solutions can bridge this gap by assessing creditworthiness using alternative data, making it easier for farmers to access the loans and insurance they need to scale their operations. AI-powered mobile apps and chatbots can also serve as virtual extension agents, providing personalized advice on best farming practices, pest control, and crop management, democratizing knowledge and empowering farmers to make better decisions.
Despite this immense potential, the journey towards widespread AI adoption is not without its hurdles. High upfront costs for AI-enabled equipment, a general lack of understanding and experience with these tools, and a preference for traditional methods are all significant barriers. Furthermore, infrastructural gaps, including poor roads and inadequate storage facilities, hinder the seamless implementation of these technologies. Data availability and computational capacity are also key challenges that need to be addressed.
However, the Nigerian government and a burgeoning ecosystem of agritech startups are already paving the way forward. The government’s vision is articulated in initiatives like the National AI Strategy, which aims to establish AI research centers and support R&D. Programs such as the Nigeria Artificial Intelligence Research Scheme (NAIRS) and the NITDA AI Developers Group are building the necessary skills among entrepreneurs and farmers. Strategic partnerships between government bodies, financial institutions, and innovative startups are creating localized solutions that are tailored to the unique conditions of Nigerian agriculture.
Ultimately, AI is not a luxury but an imperative for Nigeria to unlock its agricultural potential. Its successful integration will transform the role of the farmer from a manual laborer to a strategic planner and overseer of a smart, efficient, and sustainable food system.
By investing in infrastructure, fostering strategic partnerships, and prioritizing education and capacity building, Nigeria can harness the power of AI to feed its people, drive economic prosperity, and secure its place as a leader in the African agricultural revolution.
Diana Tenebe is the Chief Operating Officer of Foodstuff Store
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