Feature/OPED
Osun 2018 Runoff Election: Foretelling the Governor-Elect
By Omoshola Deji
Osun State is presently Nigeria’s political fireworks capital. The incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC) and the winning Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) are in a fierce battle for the control of the state after the September 22 governorship election ended inconclusive.
The PDP is determined to maintain its lead while the APC has vowed to overturn it. PDP’s Ademola Adeleke garnered 254,698 votes, which puts him in a 353 vote lead against APC’s Gboyega Oyetola who accrued 254,345 votes. Candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Iyiola Omisore earned 128,049 votes to come third.
You would recall that Nigeria’s ingenious political and public affairs analyst, Omoshola Deji foretold the outcome of the election and virtually everything he said came to pass. It is recommended that you Google and read the piece titled ‘Osun 2018 Governorship Election: Foretelling the Outcome’ before you digest this.
Adopting a different methodology as dictated by the situation in Osun, this piece takes a different turn by foretelling the outcome of the upcoming rerun election with the analysis of figures. The pundit would adopt a quantitative approach and use mathematics to solve politics. As you read on, please be aware that you may need to slow down at some point in order to accurately grasp the figure calculations and key into the analysis.
The official results released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will be used to examine the vote pattern in Osun. It will also be used to provide an insight on what the rerun scores may be. The subsisting results would likewise be used to evaluate the parties’ coalition strengths in places where the rerun elections would be conducted. Findings from all these inquires will be used to foretell who will most likely become the governor-elect in Osun State.
The rerun election is scheduled to hold on Thursday, September 27, 2018. The affected local government areas are Ife North (1 polling unit, 353 registered voters); Ife South (2 units, 1314 registered voters); Orolu (3 units, 947 registered voters); and Osogbo (1 unit, 884 registered voters). Evaluating the subsisting results in these areas will get you informed and prepare you for the discourse ahead.
During the first round of the election, the scores of the top five political parties in the four local governments where rerun would hold, in seven polling units, are:
Ife North: APC, 6527. PDP, 5486. SDP, 5158. ADP, 745 ADC, 94.
Ife South: APC, 7223. PDP, 4872. SDP, 6151. ADP, 561. ADC, 136.
Orolu: APC, 5442. PDP, 7776. SDP, 2043. ADP, 388. ADC, 79.
Osogbo: APC, 23379. PDP, 14499. SDP, 10188. ADP, 2478. ADC, 413.
The APC garnered the highest number of votes in the results above. This result would make politicians, depending on which divide they belong, rejoice or panic that the APC would defeat the PDP in the rerun election. APC is indeed formidable enough to triumph and the above results could tempt one to foretell her win. Nonetheless, before making a prediction, APC’s domination of the four local governments where rerun would be conducted, in seven units, must be tested to ascertain the party’s strength, especially after joining forces with Iyiola Omisore, the SDP governorship candidate. Both the APC and the PDP have been reaching out to other parties for support in order to increase their chance of winning the rerun.
ADC candidate, Fatai Akinbade would most likely support the PDP based on the ADC chieftains (ex-President Obasanjo and former Osun Governor Oyinlola’s, both ex-PDP members) frosty relationship with the APC and President Buhari. Moreover, Akinbade was recently a member of the PDP, but he dumped the party for the ADC when he lost the governorship ticket to Adeleke. The PDP made efforts to woo Omisore, but lost him to the APC. His announcement to support APC win is baffling. Omisore was once a senator and governorship aspirant under the PDP. Being in the third position, Omisore is a strong election winning determinant as 48% of the votes being contested are in Ife South and Ife North Local Government which are mainly his stronghold.
More to add, Omisore’s father, Oba David Omisore, is the king of Garage Olode, a town in Ife South, where election was cancelled in two units. But then, the PDP governorship candidate’s running mate, Albert Adeogun is an Ife indigene.
Moshood Adeoti of the ADP allegedly contested against his former party, the APC, because he was displeased that he lost the governorship ticket to Oyetola. Despite defecting, one may argue that Adeoti’s body, soul and spirit is APC, having served as the Secretary of Government in incumbent Governor Rauf Aregbesola’s administration for over seven years. Be that as it may, Adeoti may not just team up with the APC or the party has decide to run their race to victory without his input.
Having established that the SDP is teaming up with the APC and the ADC candidate would most likely work for the PDP, the voting strength of ADP’s Adeoti would be merged with that of the PDP. Leaving ADP, the fourth place occupant, out of the analysis, would be irrational. One may also argue that the APC’s decision to team up with Omisore instead of Adeoti is an indication that the party probably do not want to associate with Adeoti and his party, the ADP. At this juncture, it is essential to use the subsisting local governments’ results to evaluate the influence of political alignments on the winning chances of the APC and the PDP.
In Ife North the parties recently scored the following: APC, 6527. PDP, 5486. SDP, 5158. ADP, 745. ADC, 94.
Based on the scores, APC defeated the PDP with 1041 votes. A summation of APC and SDP’s votes would give us an idea of the effect of their vote earning strength in the rerun. APC’s 6527 + SDP’s 5158 votes equals to 11685. A summation of PDP, ADC and ADP’s votes would give us an idea of the effect of their strength, should they team up to work together during the rerun. PDP’s 5486 + ADP’s 745 and ADC’s 94 votes equals to 6325.
Weighing the APC+SDP coalition strength against that of the PDP+ADP+ADC in Ife North would give us a calculation: APC+SDP’s 11685 votes minus PDP+ADP+ADC 6325 votes equals to 5360. If the above party alignment plays out, APC’s Oyetola has about 5% edge over PDP’s Adeleke in Ife North.
In Ife South the political parties recently scored the following: APC, 7223. PDP, 4872. SDP, 6151. ADC, 136. ADP, 561.
APC defeated the PDP with 2351 votes. A summation of APC and SDP votes would give an idea of their strength if they unite against the PDP during the rerun. APC’s 7223 votes + SDP’s 6151 votes = 13374 votes.
A summation of PDP, ADC and ADP votes would also give an idea of their alliance strength. PDP’s 4872 votes + ADP’s 561 and ADC’s 136 votes = 5569 votes. Comparing the APC+SDP vote garnering strength against that of PDP+ADP+ADC is to simply minus 13374 from 5569. The result of that is 7805. The result shows that APC’s coalition with SDP will hike the former’s winning chance by about 8% in Ife South.
In Orolu local government, the five major contending parties’ results are: APC, 5442. PDP, 7776. SDP, 2043. ADC: 79. ADP: 388.
The PDP defeated the APC in Orolu with 2334 votes. A summation of APC and SDP’s votes (5442+2043) is 7485. In the same vein, an addition of PDP, ADC and ADP’s votes (7776+79+388) is 8243.
Comparing the APC+SDP coalition strength against that of the PDP+ADC+ADP (7485-8243) will give us 758 votes’ difference in favor of the PDP. This time around, the APC coalition with the SDP has no positive effect. PDP’s projected coalition hiked the party’s winning chance by a meagre 0.8% in the rerun polling units in Orolu.
In Osogbo the political parties recently scored the following: APC, 23379. PDP, 14499. SDP, 10188. ADC, 413. ADP 2478.
APC defeated the PDP with a remarkable 8880 votes in Osogbo. A sum of APC and SDP’s votes (23379+10188) is 33,567. Correspondingly, a sum of PDP, ADC and ADP’s votes (14499+413+2478) is 17390. Comparing the APC+SDP coalition strength against that of the PDP+ADC+ADP would give us (33567-17390) 16177 votes. The APC thus have a 16% earning-more-votes advantage over the PDP in Osogbo
The above political mathematics of election results in the four local governments controlling the polling units marked for rerun shows that APC has a substantial edge over the PDP. APC recently had the largest votes in the four local governments, and an assessment of the likely coalition of parties for the rerun shows that the APC will defeat the PDP. APC’s Oyetola have a 55% earning-more-votes advantage over the PDP’s Adeleke in Ife North, 8% in Ife South, and -0.8% in Orolu. The APC has over 16% advantage to earn more votes than the PDP in Osogbo.
Knowing the overall earning-more-votes advantage of the APC and PDP in the four local governments where the rerun polling units are located is also essential. In the four local governments, the parties have the following votes:
APC: 6527+7223+5442+23379 = 42571 votes.
PDP: 5486+4872+7776+14499 = 32633 votes.
SDP: 5158=6151=2043=10188 = 23540 votes.
ADP: 745+561+388+2478 = 4172 votes.
ADC: 94=136=79=413 = 722 votes.
In these four local governments, the total votes earned by the five parties is 103,638. Overall, APC defeated PDP with 9938 votes. A Summation of the APC and SDP votes equals to 66111. A summation of PDP, ADC and ADP votes equals to 37527. The difference between APC+SDP and PDP+ADC+ADP strength testing votes (66111-37527) equals to 28584 votes, in favor of the APC wing. This implies that if the party collaboration occurs as stated, APC’s Oyetola has about 30% advantage of earning more votes than PDP’s Adeleke in the rerun election.
Aside the political calculations, one crucial setback for APC’s Oyetola is the remarkable rise in Adeleke’s popularity after INEC declared a rerun in the polling units that their results were earlier cancelled. Adeleke’s popularity rose on the argument that he has already scored the highest votes as constitutionally required and should have been declared winner. People may decide to vote en masse for Adeleke in the rerun, if the tale that APC leaders allegedly compelled INEC to declare the election inconclusive in order to manipulate the process for Oyetola’s magnets public sympathy.
Then again, if Adeleke loses the election, there would be severe crisis in Osun State. Legal suits to nullify his candidacy and police decision to arraign him for alleged exam malpractice on the eve of the election has made people believe that INEC is also configured to rob Adeleke of his win. The unnecessary meddling of government agencies in political issues really needs to be checked.
After the in-depth analysis of votes to determine the expected political behavior of the Osun electorates and the parties’ coalition strengths, the pundit is left with no other option than to foretell the victory of APC’s Gboyega Oyetola in the upcoming rerun. The data and methodology employed to foretell the election outcome is scientific and beyond the pundit’s capacity to control or influence. The findings sincerely favors APC’s Oyetola.
This is one of the rare election prediction that the pundit is having a strong, unexplainable conviction that contradicts findings. The pundit is having a deep feeling that PDP’s Adeleke could emerge, but all the data evaluated does not point to him having a win. Adeleke would win, if Omisore’s public declaration of support for the APC turns out to be a deceit planned by him and Senate President Bukola Saraki. Omisore is one of the notable politicians that is extremely anti-APC and wants to end the party’s reign in Osun State. It is not impossible that Omisore would announce his support for the APC’s Oyetola and tell his supporters to vote PDP’s Adeleke.
Note: Foretelling an election outcome doesn’t mean the pundit have access to one sacred information or the election winning strategy of any candidate. Assessing the strengths and weaknesses of candidates to predict who’ll win is a common practice in developed nations. This doesn’t mean the pundits are compromising the electoral process or influencing the election results. Osun people have already decide who they’ll cast their votes for and nothing – not this piece – can easily change their minds. The pundit’s election prediction is made based on the expectation of a free, fair and credible election, not electoral fraud.
Omoshola Deji is a political and public affairs analyst. He wrote in via [email protected]
By Tony Ogunlowo
‘Titanic’ can mean something that is very big, gigantic or enormous and it was also the name of a ship that sank on its maiden voyage.
When the Titanic sank in 1912 it sank due to a number of avoidable factors: a ship deemed unsinkable that wasn’t fitted with watertight compartments, a ‘unprofessional’ seasoned captain who was apparently bullied into going at full speed through known ice-berg strewn waters, lack of common binoculars for the deck watch and the unavailability of enough life boats for all the passengers.
This all put together, as they say, was a recipe for disaster. Red flags were ignored.
Translating this to President Tinubu’s modern-day Nigeria, the avoidable factors that can sink the country are way too obvious.
Nigerians have long enjoyed the benefits of fuel subsidy. Costly as it is to maintain it’s enabled the economy to keep running by keeping the cost of things low. It’s removal, as can be seen, has created a domino effect, as the experts predicted, resulting in the prices of even the basic commodities skyrocketing as everyone passes on the additional costs.
With inflation currently at 32.7% and still rising, things are only going to keep on getting more and more expensive. As a result, the new minimum wage of N70,000 will have less purchasing power than the previous 2021 minimum wage of N30,000. If fuel subsidy removal was meant to boost the economy it has done the opposite and will stagnate any efforts to kickstart it.
The governments inability to control corruption or severely punish corrupt officials which is robbing the country’s coffers of billions and billions of Naira every year is a stumbling block for development.
If a corrupt government official who built 750 houses with stolen funds or an ex-governor accused of misappropriating N80 billion are allowed to walk around freely, supposedly on bail, without fear of eventual conviction it questions the message the government is sending out to future looters: if the culprits were in Russia or China the outcome will be totally different.
Even though an austerity economic policy may seem harsh like it was designed to rob Peter to pay Paul, it should be short, sharp hardship with green pastures in the foreseeable future – not ever! A good start will be to cut down on the number of foreign loans being obtained every year as their repayment can take a huge chunk out of the country’s annual income.
The new tax laws are long overdue and it should include that VAT earned in a state stays in that state: so, if your state doesn’t generate any VAT (- such as from the sale of alcohol products) you don’t get to share in what other states have collected.
Insecurity in the country is not something that started yesterday. Previous governments have blood on their hands for not nipping these insurrections in the bud before they grew to become monstrosities. You don’t pat yourself on the back, like the Nigerian Army likes to do believing you have the threat ‘under control’ – you eliminate the threat completely using what ever means necessary.
Unless the order (given by ‘Somebody’) is not to destroy them completely and to quote the late Sani Abacha,”…any insurgency that lasts more than 24 hours, a government official has a hand in it..”, no wonder Boko Haram continues to flourish and bandits like Turji Bello continue to taut the government. When the armed robber Lawrence Anini did something similar in 1986 he was fished out within months, tried and executed.
As I’ve written before the Nigerian Police Force is long past its sell by date and considering the ever growing population of Nigeria with its associated acts of anti-social behaviour its time to seriously consider devolving the NPF into state-run outfits. The growing popularity of state-run security outfits, such as Amotekun, proves this is feasible and effective.
Considering the fact the country is going through severe economic hardship the President, himself, should curb frivolous spending where possible: no more new Presidential yachts or planes ( – that includes the new one for the VP), a cap on ridiculous-no-real-job SA and SSA appointments and most important of all a cap on ALL politicians salaries and perks (which is to say if politicians are patriotic enough they’ll agree to a pay cut, forgo some of their benefits and pay for their own jaunts abroad).
Implementing the Steve Oronsaye Report which recommends merging and closing of ministries etc that has been passed over by every President since President Goodluck commissioned it in 2011 will cut government operating costs even further. This should not just be at Presidential level but extended to all the states: this will not just streamline the bloated and largely inefficient civil service but will also weed out ghost workers and white elephant project.
The ‘japa’ movement which the government is trying to discourage should be allowed to continue. It’s morally wrong for a government that can’t provide suitable employment for its citizens to try and prevent them from seeking opportunities abroad : ‘japa’ is not just limited to Nigerians, it’s a worldwide phenomenon.
People, British, American, Filipinos, are migrating worldwide to where ever there are opportunities for them to prosper. That’s the way the world works now: nobody is going to stay in a ‘sh*t-hole’ country if there are no opportunities for them to grow. Scr3w patriotism! It’s every man for himself! So, if a country can’t provide adequate employment opportunities people will pack their bags and ‘japa’! And if you restrict them from leaving the country what are they going to do? Get up to mischief – 419, cultism, kidnapping!
These same people send money back to their home countries all the time: Nigerians in diaspora in 2023 alone sent home more than $19.5 Billion Dollars. This is a huge injection of foreign currency for a country that desperately needs it.
So, just like the Titanic the warning signs are there and the inevitable that will happen should they be ignored. The question is which way is President Tinubu going to go. This is what I call the ‘Titanic Wahala’, ignore the obvious and the proverbial will hit the fan, sooner or later.
Feature/OPED
From Rental Shifts to AI Innovations: The Evolving Landscape of South Africa’s Property Sector
By Waldo Marcus
The past year has been challenging for property investors, with a sluggish economy slowing residential rental escalations in most regions in 2024.
Rental escalations are likely to be applied cautiously in 2025 to avoid vacancies, particularly given the potential for a decline in demand for rental properties as tenants, motivated by lower interest rates, migrate to property owners.
Lower rental returns will see investors looking at alternative ways to generate improved income from their investments. Short-term holiday rentals have impacted rental prices in tourist destinations, with higher rental income achieved in peak holiday times, pricing out consumers looking for long-term rental property. This trend, especially in the Western Cape, has some lobbyists calling for stricter regulations to protect consumers from inflated rental prices and a lack of affordable rental supply. SA Tourism has requested better transparency from platform providers. The risk for bond providers is that investors are financing these properties based on current tourism trends and rental income, which relies heavily on the success of platforms like Airbnb.
Consumption changes are driving commercial property growth
The commercial property sector grew in 2024 and this positive trajectory is expected to continue in 2025 as interest rates are lowered. Property developers are focusing on convenient neighbourhood retail and merging with online retailer needs. In urban areas, convenience and easy access are prioritised, while larger developments are succeeding in rural, underserved areas.
Industrial properties, particularly logistics and warehousing in the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, continue to outperform other commercial sectors. Secure and well-serviced industrial parks are in demand and expected to grow. However, traditional industrial areas around Johannesburg and the Pretoria CBD face a value collapse due to security risks and inadequate infrastructure maintenance to service the nodes.
ESG is likely to become a high-value agenda item for commercial property investors in 2025 to ensure compliance and reduce operating costs. The latest SAPOA Operating Cost Report reveals that 29% of operating expenses go to electricity costs and 23% to property taxes.
The risk of leakages
Water shortages are the next big challenge, posing a significant risk to property owners. Government and municipalities must act before it becomes another catastrophic reality like Eskom. Addressing water shortages is a dual challenge requiring both the building of and better maintenance of water infrastructure, including sewage treatment plants, and longer-term, the creation of additional reservoirs to keep up with population growth and mitigate climate change risks.
Leakages extend beyond water. Revenue leakages include missed recoveries, escalations, lease changes, and renewal options, to name a few. Increased regulatory requirements have resulted in more time being spent on compliance, and this is not expected to ease. Regulatory and compliance changes and demands on property-related companies remove valuable focus and resources from internal due diligence and processes to prevent revenue and recovery leakages. We predict more organisations will invest in technology resources to identify revenue leakages and focus on tools to drive operating costs down.
The Revolution of AI in the Property Sector
Technology – particularly AI – has become indispensable to the property sector, from AI-powered marketing and presentation tools to automated management systems. While these advancements streamline operations and enhance decision-making, they also introduce new challenges, particularly in data security and risk management.
As we move into 2025, property companies must carefully consider the appropriate balance between AI and human expertise. By striking this balance and implementing robust data protection measures, organisations can harness the power of AI while preserving their brand authenticity and competitive edge.
The Necessity of diversity in Decision-Making
Property investment is a complex and often high-stakes endeavour. As a fixed asset with emotional and financial implications, property valuations and transactions can be challenging. Recent shifts in market perception have further complicated the landscape, with divergent opinions on property’s potential as a wealth generator or alternately, a financial drain.
To navigate this complex market, accurate and reliable data is essential. Mitigating bias and leveraging diverse perspectives allows investors to make more informed decisions. Access to neutral, data-driven insights from respected sources can help uncover hidden opportunities and avoid costly mistakes.
As the property market evolves, tools and information available to investors must also adapt. Companies of all sizes are increasingly recognizing the importance of accurate, accessible, and representative data. They are investing in reliable external data sources to gain a competitive edge and make more strategic decisions.
The lingering effects of high interest rates
Persistently high interest rates raised the cost of credit and placed additional pressure on already strained consumers and businesses. They also dissuaded residential property acquisitions, leading to fewer home loan applications and a decline in the transfer of both bonded and unbonded properties in 2024. Lightstone data reveals that first-time buyer volumes slumped by 20% in 2023.
While welcome, the first two interest rate cuts will take time to filter through to residential property acquisitions. Encouragingly, demand from first-time home buyers appears to be recovering slowly with ooba Home Loans noting a rise in applications to 49.6% in September 2024, the highest reading since November 2022. We expect residential property sales to accelerate in 2025 as interest rate relief starts to filter through, albeit at a slower pace in dysfunctional municipalities.
Individual investors are increasingly choosing to maintain smaller portfolios and using tax-efficient structures such as companies and trusts. TPN anticipates that this trend will persist into 2025. Demand for buy-to-let properties has risen since late 2021, particularly in the Western Cape, followed by the Eastern Cape and Tshwane. Although this trend is expected to continue, it may slow down around mid-2025 as demand shifts from rental properties to ownership.
Municipal performance linked to property value creation
Service delivery quality, infrastructure and the maintenance of that infrastructure impact the value of property types. Well-run municipalities will continue to attract investment. Since 2020, semigration has highlighted the successes and failures of provinces and cities, resulting in decreased revenue collections for some of South Africa’s largest municipalities.
Safety and security continue to influence where South Africans choose to live and work, impacting both the residential and commercial property landscape. Mixed-use developments, secure estates, sectional title properties, and commercial parks offering efficient ways to provide enhanced security, service delivery, productive infrastructure, and maintenance spending will continue to be in demand.
An important consideration that will become increasingly significant in 2025 is the quality and accessibility of the lifestyle available in certain areas. Well-maintained and safe parks, public spaces, beaches, dams, lakes, and other recreational facilities will make these areas more appealing to tenants, businesses, and investors.
The outlook for property KPIs
Residential vacancies are expected to increase in the latter half of 2025 due to lower interest rates and improved consumer confidence. Office and retail vacancies are likely to remain stable in the first half of 2025 but will decrease should business confidence improve and if GDP targets are met. Industrial property vacancies will remain low as demand remains strong, especially in the Western Cape and infrastructure development nodes in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.
Rental escalations for commercial and residential properties will improve in the first half of 2025. Investors will be keen to enhance their returns after a period of sluggish economic performance with slightly healthier consumers offering the opportunity to grow rental income strategically.
The good standing of both commercial and residential tenants is expected to continue to improve as landlords use stricter vetting and collection strategies.
Rental property gross yields will, on average, stay the same as property values are expected to increase in line with rental income. The challenge for investors will be to keep operating costs down to maintain or improve net yields.
A favourable outlook for residential housing market
The outlook for the residential housing market is more favourable for 2025 than it has been for the past few years with the property market offering good value overall. The interest rate will likely be cut by a further 50bps by the third quarter of 2025, offering further relief for household finances and renewed activity at both the lower and upper ends of the market. More investments could see an increase in rental property supply and even a potential decline in rental demand as more consumers shift from renting to buying. We expect continued demand for well-managed rental properties.
Waldo Marcus is a Director at TPN from MRI Software
Ever wondered where to find trendy fashion, cutting-edge tech, or stylish home decor at unbeatable prices? Look no further than Temu.
What is Temu?
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Since its 2022 launch, it has quickly become a global sensation, boasting hundreds of millions of downloads and catering to over 80 markets. Now, Nigerian shoppers can experience the Temu magic firsthand.
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The registration process
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Both the mobile app and desktop website offer a seamless shopping experience. However, for a truly dynamic and interactive shopping journey, we recommend the mobile app. You will enjoy real-time price alerts, exclusive mobile deals, and easy order tracking.
For a more deliberate shopping experience, the desktop website is the perfect choice. With larger screens and easy-to-use comparison features, you can take your time and make informed decisions.
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Navigating Temu’s vast selection
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So, shop with confidence on Temu!
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