Feature/OPED
Osun 2018 Runoff Election: Foretelling the Governor-Elect
By Omoshola Deji
Osun State is presently Nigeria’s political fireworks capital. The incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC) and the winning Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) are in a fierce battle for the control of the state after the September 22 governorship election ended inconclusive.
The PDP is determined to maintain its lead while the APC has vowed to overturn it. PDP’s Ademola Adeleke garnered 254,698 votes, which puts him in a 353 vote lead against APC’s Gboyega Oyetola who accrued 254,345 votes. Candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Iyiola Omisore earned 128,049 votes to come third.
You would recall that Nigeria’s ingenious political and public affairs analyst, Omoshola Deji foretold the outcome of the election and virtually everything he said came to pass. It is recommended that you Google and read the piece titled ‘Osun 2018 Governorship Election: Foretelling the Outcome’ before you digest this.
Adopting a different methodology as dictated by the situation in Osun, this piece takes a different turn by foretelling the outcome of the upcoming rerun election with the analysis of figures. The pundit would adopt a quantitative approach and use mathematics to solve politics. As you read on, please be aware that you may need to slow down at some point in order to accurately grasp the figure calculations and key into the analysis.
The official results released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will be used to examine the vote pattern in Osun. It will also be used to provide an insight on what the rerun scores may be. The subsisting results would likewise be used to evaluate the parties’ coalition strengths in places where the rerun elections would be conducted. Findings from all these inquires will be used to foretell who will most likely become the governor-elect in Osun State.
The rerun election is scheduled to hold on Thursday, September 27, 2018. The affected local government areas are Ife North (1 polling unit, 353 registered voters); Ife South (2 units, 1314 registered voters); Orolu (3 units, 947 registered voters); and Osogbo (1 unit, 884 registered voters). Evaluating the subsisting results in these areas will get you informed and prepare you for the discourse ahead.
During the first round of the election, the scores of the top five political parties in the four local governments where rerun would hold, in seven polling units, are:
Ife North: APC, 6527. PDP, 5486. SDP, 5158. ADP, 745 ADC, 94.
Ife South: APC, 7223. PDP, 4872. SDP, 6151. ADP, 561. ADC, 136.
Orolu: APC, 5442. PDP, 7776. SDP, 2043. ADP, 388. ADC, 79.
Osogbo: APC, 23379. PDP, 14499. SDP, 10188. ADP, 2478. ADC, 413.
The APC garnered the highest number of votes in the results above. This result would make politicians, depending on which divide they belong, rejoice or panic that the APC would defeat the PDP in the rerun election. APC is indeed formidable enough to triumph and the above results could tempt one to foretell her win. Nonetheless, before making a prediction, APC’s domination of the four local governments where rerun would be conducted, in seven units, must be tested to ascertain the party’s strength, especially after joining forces with Iyiola Omisore, the SDP governorship candidate. Both the APC and the PDP have been reaching out to other parties for support in order to increase their chance of winning the rerun.
ADC candidate, Fatai Akinbade would most likely support the PDP based on the ADC chieftains (ex-President Obasanjo and former Osun Governor Oyinlola’s, both ex-PDP members) frosty relationship with the APC and President Buhari. Moreover, Akinbade was recently a member of the PDP, but he dumped the party for the ADC when he lost the governorship ticket to Adeleke. The PDP made efforts to woo Omisore, but lost him to the APC. His announcement to support APC win is baffling. Omisore was once a senator and governorship aspirant under the PDP. Being in the third position, Omisore is a strong election winning determinant as 48% of the votes being contested are in Ife South and Ife North Local Government which are mainly his stronghold.
More to add, Omisore’s father, Oba David Omisore, is the king of Garage Olode, a town in Ife South, where election was cancelled in two units. But then, the PDP governorship candidate’s running mate, Albert Adeogun is an Ife indigene.
Moshood Adeoti of the ADP allegedly contested against his former party, the APC, because he was displeased that he lost the governorship ticket to Oyetola. Despite defecting, one may argue that Adeoti’s body, soul and spirit is APC, having served as the Secretary of Government in incumbent Governor Rauf Aregbesola’s administration for over seven years. Be that as it may, Adeoti may not just team up with the APC or the party has decide to run their race to victory without his input.
Having established that the SDP is teaming up with the APC and the ADC candidate would most likely work for the PDP, the voting strength of ADP’s Adeoti would be merged with that of the PDP. Leaving ADP, the fourth place occupant, out of the analysis, would be irrational. One may also argue that the APC’s decision to team up with Omisore instead of Adeoti is an indication that the party probably do not want to associate with Adeoti and his party, the ADP. At this juncture, it is essential to use the subsisting local governments’ results to evaluate the influence of political alignments on the winning chances of the APC and the PDP.
In Ife North the parties recently scored the following: APC, 6527. PDP, 5486. SDP, 5158. ADP, 745. ADC, 94.
Based on the scores, APC defeated the PDP with 1041 votes. A summation of APC and SDP’s votes would give us an idea of the effect of their vote earning strength in the rerun. APC’s 6527 + SDP’s 5158 votes equals to 11685. A summation of PDP, ADC and ADP’s votes would give us an idea of the effect of their strength, should they team up to work together during the rerun. PDP’s 5486 + ADP’s 745 and ADC’s 94 votes equals to 6325.
Weighing the APC+SDP coalition strength against that of the PDP+ADP+ADC in Ife North would give us a calculation: APC+SDP’s 11685 votes minus PDP+ADP+ADC 6325 votes equals to 5360. If the above party alignment plays out, APC’s Oyetola has about 5% edge over PDP’s Adeleke in Ife North.
In Ife South the political parties recently scored the following: APC, 7223. PDP, 4872. SDP, 6151. ADC, 136. ADP, 561.
APC defeated the PDP with 2351 votes. A summation of APC and SDP votes would give an idea of their strength if they unite against the PDP during the rerun. APC’s 7223 votes + SDP’s 6151 votes = 13374 votes.
A summation of PDP, ADC and ADP votes would also give an idea of their alliance strength. PDP’s 4872 votes + ADP’s 561 and ADC’s 136 votes = 5569 votes. Comparing the APC+SDP vote garnering strength against that of PDP+ADP+ADC is to simply minus 13374 from 5569. The result of that is 7805. The result shows that APC’s coalition with SDP will hike the former’s winning chance by about 8% in Ife South.
In Orolu local government, the five major contending parties’ results are: APC, 5442. PDP, 7776. SDP, 2043. ADC: 79. ADP: 388.
The PDP defeated the APC in Orolu with 2334 votes. A summation of APC and SDP’s votes (5442+2043) is 7485. In the same vein, an addition of PDP, ADC and ADP’s votes (7776+79+388) is 8243.
Comparing the APC+SDP coalition strength against that of the PDP+ADC+ADP (7485-8243) will give us 758 votes’ difference in favor of the PDP. This time around, the APC coalition with the SDP has no positive effect. PDP’s projected coalition hiked the party’s winning chance by a meagre 0.8% in the rerun polling units in Orolu.
In Osogbo the political parties recently scored the following: APC, 23379. PDP, 14499. SDP, 10188. ADC, 413. ADP 2478.
APC defeated the PDP with a remarkable 8880 votes in Osogbo. A sum of APC and SDP’s votes (23379+10188) is 33,567. Correspondingly, a sum of PDP, ADC and ADP’s votes (14499+413+2478) is 17390. Comparing the APC+SDP coalition strength against that of the PDP+ADC+ADP would give us (33567-17390) 16177 votes. The APC thus have a 16% earning-more-votes advantage over the PDP in Osogbo
The above political mathematics of election results in the four local governments controlling the polling units marked for rerun shows that APC has a substantial edge over the PDP. APC recently had the largest votes in the four local governments, and an assessment of the likely coalition of parties for the rerun shows that the APC will defeat the PDP. APC’s Oyetola have a 55% earning-more-votes advantage over the PDP’s Adeleke in Ife North, 8% in Ife South, and -0.8% in Orolu. The APC has over 16% advantage to earn more votes than the PDP in Osogbo.
Knowing the overall earning-more-votes advantage of the APC and PDP in the four local governments where the rerun polling units are located is also essential. In the four local governments, the parties have the following votes:
APC: 6527+7223+5442+23379 = 42571 votes.
PDP: 5486+4872+7776+14499 = 32633 votes.
SDP: 5158=6151=2043=10188 = 23540 votes.
ADP: 745+561+388+2478 = 4172 votes.
ADC: 94=136=79=413 = 722 votes.
In these four local governments, the total votes earned by the five parties is 103,638. Overall, APC defeated PDP with 9938 votes. A Summation of the APC and SDP votes equals to 66111. A summation of PDP, ADC and ADP votes equals to 37527. The difference between APC+SDP and PDP+ADC+ADP strength testing votes (66111-37527) equals to 28584 votes, in favor of the APC wing. This implies that if the party collaboration occurs as stated, APC’s Oyetola has about 30% advantage of earning more votes than PDP’s Adeleke in the rerun election.
Aside the political calculations, one crucial setback for APC’s Oyetola is the remarkable rise in Adeleke’s popularity after INEC declared a rerun in the polling units that their results were earlier cancelled. Adeleke’s popularity rose on the argument that he has already scored the highest votes as constitutionally required and should have been declared winner. People may decide to vote en masse for Adeleke in the rerun, if the tale that APC leaders allegedly compelled INEC to declare the election inconclusive in order to manipulate the process for Oyetola’s magnets public sympathy.
Then again, if Adeleke loses the election, there would be severe crisis in Osun State. Legal suits to nullify his candidacy and police decision to arraign him for alleged exam malpractice on the eve of the election has made people believe that INEC is also configured to rob Adeleke of his win. The unnecessary meddling of government agencies in political issues really needs to be checked.
After the in-depth analysis of votes to determine the expected political behavior of the Osun electorates and the parties’ coalition strengths, the pundit is left with no other option than to foretell the victory of APC’s Gboyega Oyetola in the upcoming rerun. The data and methodology employed to foretell the election outcome is scientific and beyond the pundit’s capacity to control or influence. The findings sincerely favors APC’s Oyetola.
This is one of the rare election prediction that the pundit is having a strong, unexplainable conviction that contradicts findings. The pundit is having a deep feeling that PDP’s Adeleke could emerge, but all the data evaluated does not point to him having a win. Adeleke would win, if Omisore’s public declaration of support for the APC turns out to be a deceit planned by him and Senate President Bukola Saraki. Omisore is one of the notable politicians that is extremely anti-APC and wants to end the party’s reign in Osun State. It is not impossible that Omisore would announce his support for the APC’s Oyetola and tell his supporters to vote PDP’s Adeleke.
Note: Foretelling an election outcome doesn’t mean the pundit have access to one sacred information or the election winning strategy of any candidate. Assessing the strengths and weaknesses of candidates to predict who’ll win is a common practice in developed nations. This doesn’t mean the pundits are compromising the electoral process or influencing the election results. Osun people have already decide who they’ll cast their votes for and nothing – not this piece – can easily change their minds. The pundit’s election prediction is made based on the expectation of a free, fair and credible election, not electoral fraud.
Omoshola Deji is a political and public affairs analyst. He wrote in via mo******@***oo.com
By Onah Ishioma Adaeze
As a beginner, choosing between stocks and forex for your investment goals in 2026 can feel overwhelming. Before investing your hard-earned money, it is important to understand how both markets work.
While both markets present investors with opportunities to grow their wealth, they also differ in terms of volatility, liquidity, market hours, and leverage. Stocks involve owning portions of a company, while forex has to do with trading a base currency against a quote currency.
In this article, we will be going through the basics of stocks and forex, pointing out their differences, and helping you decide which asset better suits your investment journey in 2026.
What is Stock Trading?
When it comes to stock trading, you are buying shares of a company, which makes you a shareholder of that company. As a shareholder, you may be entitled to receive dividends whenever the company decides to pay dividends.
As for those companies that do not pay dividends, there are other benefits a shareholder may enjoy, like being called upon to attend shareholder meetings and having voting rights on certain company matters.
On a global scale, over $100 trillion worth of shares are traded annually. Also, the rising popularity of AI companies and technological innovations continues to drive investor participation and market growth.
If you’re an investor looking to buy and hold capital assets, then stock trading is definitely for you, as it allows for short-term, medium-term and long-term investment goals.
When you buy shares of a company and the company performs well, your shares increase in value. Another benefit of stock trading is access to index funds and ETFs.
These funds consist of companies that are grouped under an index. They are carefully selected and monitored under the fund, sparing the investor the stress of actively tracking the fund.
They can be a way of building a long-term, diversified portfolio, and some of these funds may pay dividends.
What is Forex Trading?
Forex trading has to do with buying one currency and selling another. With a pair like USD/JPY, USD is the base currency being bought against JPY, which is the quote currency.
In order to execute a trade in the forex market, you have to analyse and make predictions based on price movement, as well as pay attention to what’s going on in the global news scene.
The forex market runs twenty-four hours every weekday, with over $9 trillion traded in the market every day. Being the largest financial market in the world, there is very high liquidity.
Forex trading involves buying one currency against another, making predictions based on price movements on the forex charts. Price moves based on the activities of large institutions like hedge funds, big banks, the government, etc.
The forex market runs 24 hours a day, every weekday, with global forex turnover reaching $9 trillion per day in the BIS 2025 survey. Being the largest financial market in the world, there is very high volatility and price fluctuations.
At the same time, there is high liquidity in the market, which means that currency pairs can easily be bought and sold without hassle. Highly liquid instruments that are traded regularly include: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and gold (XAU/USD).
As a retail trader, knowing when to enter and exit the market is important. As easy as it is to make profits from price fluctuations, it is also very easy to lose money if the market moves against you. This is why it is important to set stop losses and take profits. This helps manage your trading capital.
Major Differences Between Stocks and Forex
While investing in stocks and forex can yield great capital gains, there are lots of ways in which they differ.
As a beginner, stock trading provides opportunities for long-term investments, ensuring slow but consistent returns for wealth building. But if you are looking for an active, short-term style of investment, then forex trading is for you, as it allows you to enter and exit the market within a shorter time frame.
Which is Better in 2026?
Choosing an asset to invest in all boils down to personal preference. At the same time, if you are not averse to risk, nor opposed to asset diversification, then it’s okay to invest in both.
For beginner investors in 2026, stock trading is easier to understand and get into, especially because of mutual funds, index funds and ETFs. With those funds, you don’t have to be an expert to start investing. You can just buy a fund that suits your needs and hold it over a long period of time.
If you are an investor who enjoys technical analysis, highly volatile and liquid markets, as well as trading under short time frames, then forex trading is the right pick for you.
Conclusion
You do not need to put all your eggs in one basket. There are investors who invest in both stocks and forex simultaneously. When starting out, you can start investing in stocks while learning forex. Take calculated risks and do not invest above your means. Diversify your investments and remember, when starting out, you should prioritise acquiring knowledge over profits.
Onah Ishioma Adaeze is a finance writer who is passionate about simplifying complex concepts into easily digestible pieces. Her hobbies are reading and watching anime
By Owoloye Emmanuel
Every business starts with a problem. For us, that problem was hiding in plain sight.
Across organisations, we kept seeing HR professionals, payroll teams, and business leaders spend significant time navigating processes that should be simpler. Employee records sat across multiple systems, payroll processes required manual intervention, and routine workforce tasks often became more complicated than they needed to be.
As businesses grow, workforce operations naturally become more complex. Yet many organisations still rely on disconnected tools and workflows that create unnecessary friction for both employers and employees.
The consequence is more than operational inefficiency. HR teams spend valuable time managing systems instead of supporting people. Business leaders struggle to access timely workforce insights, while employees experience delays in processes that should be seamless.
These weren’t isolated challenges. They were recurring realities across workplaces, regardless of industry or size.
That observation led us to a simple question: what if workforce management could be easier?
What if HR, payroll, and workforce operations could work together within a single, connected experience?
That question became the foundation for 234 Solutions.
We are building 234 Solutions with a clear belief that workplace technology should reduce complexity, not add to it. Our goal is to help organisations spend less time navigating processes and more time focusing on productivity, growth, and people.
As we prepare for launch, our focus remains simple: building practical solutions for real workplace challenges and helping organisations create better experiences for the people who power them every day.
Owoloye Emmanuel is the founder of 234 Solutions
Scroll through social media today, and you will notice something interesting: everyone is either reacting to a series, quoting a movie line, or debating a character as though they personally know them. Beneath the memes and binge-watch culture, however, lies something deeper. Television remains one of the most powerful tools shaping how Africans see themselves, remember their history, and tell their own stories. In a continent as diverse and expressive as Africa, that matters more than ever.
TV as a Cultural Archive, Not Just Entertainment
Long before streaming algorithms began shaping our viewing habits, television was already preserving African identity. From Nollywood dramas that capture the rhythm of everyday Lagos life to documentaries exploring Maasai traditions and Ghanaian folklore, TV has served as a living archive of the continent’s stories.
It preserves more than entertainment; it preserves language, culture, humour, values, and shared experiences. Unlike fleeting social media content, television allows stories to unfold with depth, exploring the realities of family, tradition, ambition, and modern African life without reducing them to stereotypes. That is the power of TV: preserving not just stories, but perspective.
Why Representation on TV Still Matters
There is a subtle but important truth: if people do not see themselves on screen, they may begin to believe their stories are not worth telling. This is why African TV content is more than entertainment; it is affirmation.
Seeing a character who speaks like you, struggles like you, or celebrates like your community does something powerful. It validates identity and challenges outdated narratives that have historically defined Africa through external lenses.
This is where MultiChoice Group, through platforms such as DStv and GOtv, plays an important role. They do not simply broadcast content; they help distribute cultural memory at scale.
GOtv, DStv, and the Everyday African Viewer
Think about a typical evening in many African homes: the TV is on in the background, someone is laughing at a comedy show, another person is watching a local series, and someone else is catching up on the news. That shared viewing experience remains very real.
Through platforms such as DStv and GOtv, African households are exposed to a blend of local storytelling and global content. More importantly, they have helped amplify African-produced content by bringing Nollywood films, African reality shows, talk shows, and documentaries into mainstream rotation.
It is not just about access. It is about visibility.
A young filmmaker in Lagos today is more likely to believe their story matters because they have seen similar stories broadcast widely. A child in Accra grows up hearing familiar accents and seeing environments that look like their own on screen, not as exceptions, but as the norm.
TV Is Also Shaping Modern African Identity
African identity is not static; it is evolving. Television reflects that evolution in real time.
Today, audiences see:
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Young Africans balancing tradition and modern dating culture
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Stories tackling mental health in African households
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Fashion and music influences spreading through TV series
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Political satire shaping public conversation
Conversations that were once confined to homes are now being explored on screen, giving audiences the language to discuss issues that were previously unspoken.
In many ways, television is doing what oral tradition has always done: passing stories, values, humour, warnings, and history from one generation to the next. The difference is that today’s griots are writers, directors, and broadcasters.
The Future: From Watching to Owning Our Narratives
The next stage of African storytelling is not just about being seen; it is about ownership.
As more African creators produce content and platforms continue to invest in regional storytelling, television becomes more than a mirror. It becomes a tool for shaping how Africa is represented to itself and to the world.
While streaming continues to grow, television, particularly accessible platforms such as GOtv, remains one of the most effective ways to reach everyday audiences across different income levels and regions. After all, storytelling only matters if people can access it.
African stories are not new. They have always existed in families, on streets, in markets, in history books, and through oral traditions. What television has done, and continues to do, is give those stories a stage wide enough for millions to experience them at once.
The next time you watch a local series or documentary on DStv or GOtv, remember that you are not just being entertained. You are participating in the preservation of African identity itself.
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