Feature/OPED
Peter Obi, Prospects and Challenges
By Jerome-Mario Chijioke Utomi
This piece stemmed from two uniquely similar but different sources. First is a WhatsApp picture of Peter Obi, the Labour Party presidential flag bearer and his running mate, Dr Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, which I recently stumbled upon on a group platform.
The referenced portrait was laced with the following inscriptions; Nigeria Has Never Had It This Good! No missing certificates, excellent academic achievements, good, verifiable track records, good business administration and no criminal records.
While reflecting on the portrait and its messages, I got yet another WhatsApp message. Like the first, it reads; ‘Obicracy is a system where the masses choose a competent leader without structure over incompetent leader with full structure’.
To cross-check the validity of these claims about Peter Obi’s popularity, I sought a telephone conversation with a cross-section of quietly influential Nigerians. While all comments were validly important and appreciated, the observations by Tony Ezeagwu, Chairman, Labour Party, Delta state/Coordinator, Peter Obi Campaign Organization, and another by Iwemdi Nwaham, member of People Democratic Party (PDP), not only stood out but formed the nucleus of the present discourse.
‘Like a boil that can never be cured as long as it is covered up until it is opened with all its pus-flowing ugliness to the natural medicine of air and light, their remarks respectively brought to surface the hidden prospects and concerns inherent in Obi’s movement to where it can be seen and treated. Most importantly, the duo subjected Obi’s quest for the presidency to the light of human conscience and the air of national opinion.
Beginning with Tony Ezeagwu, he was not only emphatic as to Obi’s prospect but categorical as to why Nigerians should elect him as their next President.
In his words; as you can see, Nigeria as a country is in a state of decay. Everything has gone wrong, people are suffering, and schools are closed. No hospital to attend. People are being kidnapped and the people have no answer to all that is happening. And you have also heard of Obi’s background particularly when he was a governor.
‘You have heard all he did in Anambra State, how he revived the state. You know what made them impeach him on two different occasions. But each time he goes to the court, the court returns him to the office because of his steadfastness to doing the right thing. He was sure of what he was doing in the office as a Governor. He was doing the right thing and not the wrong thing. Even when they alleged that he did not follow due process and the rest of it, the court insisted that the man followed due process, except if it is a different thing that you are looking for’.
Waxing philosophical, he asked rhetorically; do you know that it is in washing hands that we know who will scramble for the food? And are you also aware that charity begins at home? What you were not taught at your youthful age, you cannot learn in old age. Obi has taught us not to talk about other people. Instead, we should tell Nigerians what he is going to do and what he has done in the past-as that is better than looking into what others have done. Whether they have done well or have done wrong. It is Nigerians that have to say that.
He further stressed that the most important thing is that what he did in Anambra stands him out. Anambra, he explained, is a state, just as Nigeria is a state. If we are talking about the Ministry of Health in Anambra, there is nothing different between the Ministry of Health in Anambra State and the Federal Ministry of Health. If we are talking about the Ministry of Agriculture in Anambra state, there is nothing different from that of the Ministry of Agriculture at the federal level. So, he is only going to replicate whatever he has done in the past.
The only thing is that it is going to be at a larger scope now and because it is on a larger scope, it will require larger resources to spend on those demands. It is not the size of the fund that is in Anambra as a state that is at the federal level. The only thing is that the size of the man’s thinking, the ability that he used in Anambra is the same ability that he is going to use at the federal level. I think it is a very simple and straightforward thing. Anybody who is talking about Anambra being a small state and the rest of it might not be getting it right.
The issue is; does Peter Obi know what to do? That is the question.
‘I am sure you are aware that the issue we are talking about is somebody who will look at a problem on the ground and not only know what to do but figure out the solution. That is exactly what we are talking about. And if you see the people Labour Party is parading now; president and vice presidential aspirants, you will know that first and foremost, two of them possess the energy needed to function at that capacity. They are young people. They are successful entrepreneurs. So, they know what to do to make Nigeria great’.
At this point, he said something very interesting; Obi is not promising the youth anything extra-ordinary than what they are entitled to.
So, what are those things that they are entitled to? I queried.
Look, he responded; first and foremost they are entitled to a good life. Secondly, they are entitled to go to school and if you have a course of four years, you will do it for four years and not for eight years. Thirdly, when you graduate, you will get a job. Fourthly, our people used to call Benue State the food basket of the nation. Today, Benue State is no longer the food basket. They have been driven out of the bush and their farms and you don’t expect us (Nigerians) to be getting food the way they used to. Go to Zamfara State, people are being slaughtered every day. Go to Kaduna State, people are being slaughtered every day. So, what he is going to do is that he has to bring Nigeria to oneness again. It will no longer be Christian/Muslim or Hausa/Igbo, Yoruba or South versus North. It has to be if you are a Nigerian, you are a Nigerian. That is what he wants to put in place.
However, while Tony exudes confidence about how Peter Obi will win the forthcoming presidential election and turn the fortunes of this country around, Iwemdi Nwaham, a member of PDP in Delta State, said something new and different.
He said, I don’t have a contrary opinion as per observation. I only have a contrary opinion as per actualization. When you open social media, when you look around you, you just find people who are ‘Obidient’ all over the place. You go to school, you go to a motor park, palm wine drinking bar, and honestly, the mileage of stocks is in favour of Obi because Obi is saying the right things. Obi is really touching on the nerves and this is where APC must know that they have thrown up an Obi because of the way they have misruled this country. You know, when you come out of that, you look at the ingredients for electoral victory.
‘The ingredient for electoral victory is not just to sit down in a palm wine bar and talk. It is much more. When they say structure, you have to have a structure and because of the way people are interpreting it, I don’t even like using the word structure anymore but it is real. In party politics, you entrench yourself, you put certain tentacles into the ground. If you don’t have it, you will just ramble around it’.
I tell you, Peter Obi might not even score 30 per cent in Anambra State of the votes that will be cast for president. But he is so popular; people like to listen to him. His messages are resonating everywhere. He will get to the presidency but not in 2023. There are certain things that must be in place in dismantling the skewed nature of Nigeria. Nigeria is too skewed in favour of one ethnic group and it is not fair. Those things that will be done to dismantle it cannot be done by Peter Obi or Tinubu. It can only be done by somebody like them who will say ‘look my people, I think this unfairness has become too much. We have gone too far. This country might go into a conflagration if we don’t apply sense’. Then he now begins to reorder gradually. It cannot be done mechanically. He concluded.
Whatever may be the case; this piece on its part holds the opinion that the current administration has no clear definition of our problem as a nation, the goals to be achieved, or the means to address the problems and achieve the goals. Secondly, the system has virtually no consideration for connecting the poor with good means of livelihood-food, jobs, and security. This is the only possible explanation for the present situation and a fact that has made the need for a third force in the coming 2023 general election important!!!
Utomi is the Programme Coordinator (Media and Public Policy), Social and Economic Justice Advocacy (SEJA), Lagos. He can be reached via je*********@***oo.com/08032725374
Feature/OPED
What Does Nigeria’s $51bn Reserves Milestone Mean if Most New Foreign Money Can Leave Quickly?
Nigeria’s foreign reserves have climbed to about $51 billion, a decade-plus high, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). EBC Financial Group (EBC) notes that this reflects stronger investor confidence, but the second half may show whether it holds, as the build rests on three cyclical drivers: oil earnings, short-term foreign money and a narrowing official-to-street naira gap.
Reserves rose from about $32 billion in April 2024, during a dollar shortage, to about $51 billion now, near the CBN’s target. Much came from two cyclical sources, strong oil earnings and money chasing high-yielding naira assets, so EBC expects the pace to slow or reverse. Fitch Ratings, a major international credit rating agency, expects a marginal decline to about $47 billion by the end of 2026, citing higher spending and external pressures.
David Precious, Senior Market Analyst at EBC Financial Group, said, “Nigeria’s reserve build is real but may not be durable yet, because nearly all of the new money is the kind that can leave quickly. Of the $10.37 billion that came in over the first quarter, the overwhelming majority was short-term portfolio funds rather than long-term investment, so a shift in oil prices, global interest rates or confidence in the naira might pull a large part of it straight back out.”
Most New Money Can Still Leave Quickly
The composition of the foreign inflows explains the caution over how long the build can last. The country attracted $10.37 billion in foreign investment in the first quarter of 2026, up 83.83 per cent year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Of that, $9.86 billion or 95.09 per cent, was portfolio money, largely short-term naira debt such as Treasury bills that investors can sell at the next auction, while foreign direct investment, the long-term kind that builds factories and jobs, was $135.08 million, or 1.30 per cent. Put simply, of each dollar coming in, about 95 cents can leave quickly, and barely one cent stays.
That money supports reserves while it stays. Dollars brought in to buy naira assets add to market supply, letting the CBN hold more reserves and steady the naira. It leaves when conditions change. Nigeria earns most of its export dollars from oil and gas, so lower oil prices mean fewer dollars, and as a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), it cannot simply produce more, output capped by quota and reduced by theft and ageing fields. Higher global interest rates draw money toward safer returns abroad, and a weakening naira prompts investors to sell early. When oil fell in 2016 and 2020, foreign investors withdrew and could not convert naira to dollars as supply dried up, leaving the CBN to clear more than $7 billion in trapped obligations into 2024.
The Oil Boost is No Longer Certain
Oil looked like a dependable source of the dollars behind the reserves only months ago. Earlier in 2026, concern over disruption around the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude prices, and stronger receipts flowed in, with crude oil export earnings of $8.11 billion in the first quarter in the CBN’s balance-of-payments data. That support is now easing. The tension has subsided, and Brent traded near $72 on June 29, down about 24 per cent over the month, back to pre-conflict levels. With the price boost gone and output constrained, reserves are more exposed, leaning on non-oil earnings and investor patience rather than oil.
The Naira Still Trades at Two Prices
The naira has traded at two prices, an official rate and a higher parallel-market rate, and closing that gap into one trusted price is what many investors might watch most. Before committing funds, they may want assurance they can convert naira to dollars at a fair rate when they exit, and a wide gap revives the fear of being trapped that lingers from earlier shortages. The gap has narrowed to roughly N20 to N30, with the CBN’s official rate near N1,380 per dollar on June 26 against parallel-market quotes around N1,400. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2026 Article IV review urged Nigeria to depend less on this fast-moving portfolio money and to keep phasing out its multiple exchange-rate practices. The CBN’s Foreign Exchange Manual, in force from 1 June, is intended to make the market clearer, though such rules build confidence only once investors can freely trade dollars at the posted rate.
What could Make the Build Durable
A few signs that may show the build turning durable include a smaller gap between the official and street naira rates, more long-term foreign investment, and steadier oil earnings. A gap that stays small, now roughly N20 to N30, may mean investors trust the official rate and no longer need the street market. A clear rise in foreign direct investment, only $135 million last quarter against $9.86 billion of short-term money, might mean lasting capital is replacing funds that can leave at the next auction. Oil earnings that hold up, rather than sliding from the low $70s, should help keep reserves steady, since oil and gas bring in most of Nigeria’s export dollars.
“Reserves built on money chasing high yields can fall as fast as they rose, as they did after the last two oil shocks, when investors left, and the CBN spent years clearing a foreign-exchange backlog,” Precious added. “What holds through a downturn is slower money, direct investment, steady oil and non-oil export earnings and one credible naira rate, and that is the shift Nigeria has yet to make.”
By Olajumoke Bello
Across Nigeria, small and medium enterprises remain the backbone of economic activity. They drive trade, create jobs, and sustain millions of livelihoods. Yet, despite their importance, many SMEs continue to operate below their full potential due to persistent structural challenges.
Access to finance remains one of the most cited constraints. However, the issue today goes beyond the availability of capital. Many businesses struggle with financial readiness, weak documentation, and limited understanding of what lenders require. This often leads to missed opportunities, even when funding options exist.
At the same time, SMEs face gaps in market access and visibility. Business owners operate in highly localised environments, with limited exposure to broader networks that can unlock partnerships, new markets, and growth opportunities. This isolation can constrain scalability and reduce long-term competitiveness.
Equally important is the capability gap. Many entrepreneurs grow through resilience and experience but lack structured knowledge on critical areas such as financial management, export readiness, and digital adoption. Without this, even well-capitalised businesses can struggle to sustain growth.
These challenges point to a clear need for a more practical and integrated approach to SME support. It is no longer sufficient to offer standalone solutions. SMEs require ecosystems that combine knowledge, access, and direct engagement in ways that reflect how they actually operate.
A key shift is the move from centralised interventions to localised engagement. SMEs are deeply influenced by their immediate environments, whether markets, industrial clusters, or trade corridors. Solutions must therefore be brought closer to where these businesses function, allowing for more relevant support and stronger relationships.
Another important shift is from awareness to action. Business owners do not only need information; they need insights that they can apply immediately. This includes understanding how to structure their finances, how to access trade opportunities, and how to connect with the right partners to scale their operations.
There is also a growing need for continuity. Many SME-focused initiatives deliver strong initial impact but lack follow-through. For support to be effective, it must extend beyond one-off engagements into sustained relationships, with clear pathways for onboarding, advisory, and growth.
For financial institutions, this presents both responsibility and an opportunity. Supporting SMEs now requires moving beyond transactional banking to deeper partnership models. It requires understanding businesses at a granular level and co-creating solutions that evolve with their needs.
At Stanbic IBTC, this perspective continues to shape our approach to SME development. Our focus is on delivering practical support that translates into real business outcomes, helping enterprises grow, compete, and contribute more meaningfully to the economy.
As part of this commitment, we are extending our SME engagement to the regions through the Nigeria Business Summit Regional Tour. The tour will take structured, on-ground activations into key commercial hubs, where SMEs can access funding guidance, trade insights, advisory support, and direct engagement with financial experts.
The regional tour will take place across five strategic locations, bringing these solutions closer to business owners in Aba, Onitsha, Ibadan and Kano.
This approach reflects an important principle. When support moves closer to businesses and when solutions are delivered in ways that are practical and continuous, SMEs are better positioned to grow sustainably. In turn, this strengthens not only individual enterprises but the broader economy.
Olajumoke Bello is the Head of Enterprise Banking at Stanbic IBTC Bank
By Winston Osuchukwu
The average Nigerian borrower is widely considered high-risk – a claim repeated in credit committees, priced into retail loans, and largely treated as settled fact. Every credit market accepts that an individual loan may not be repaid; this is ordinary, priced risk. The high-risk claim, however, is applied to whole segments – the informal trader, the gig economy earner whose income is steady but split across several accounts, the remote worker paid by an overseas client into a fintech FX wallet. What the assessment establishes is not whether they are likely to repay, but how they fit into an arbitrary segment. Having spent years building decisioning systems for this market, my thesis is a specific one: “high-risk” does not mean “no credit” – it simply requires that the lender embrace alternative datasets to price the risk appropriately.
This is not a criticism of the institutions that built their frameworks around collateral and documentation; those were rational responses to the tools available at the time. When data is scarce, prudence means defaulting to the status quo. The limitation is not that this approach is wrong, but that it leaves a blind spot – excluding fundamentally sound borrowers whose economic lives simply are not captured on the bank’s ledger. A market trader who has moved consistent, growing volumes of cash through mobile money for three years is not, in any meaningful sense, unknowable. Their financial behaviour is observable and patterned; it simply occurs outside the traditional banking system, rendering it invisible to conventional underwriting.
This is the gap technology is now positioned to close – not by replacing institutional judgment, but by augmenting it. When AI-driven analysis is applied rigorously to the financial behaviour these borrowers generate, a far more complete picture of their repayment ability emerges – and a meaningful share presents a risk profile that compares favourably with segments the traditional system has long considered safe. The “high-risk” label, applied broadly to an entire category of borrower, was never a risk pricing tool so much as the limit of what the available tools could see.
For banks, this is the opportunity to extend capital with confidence beyond the borrowers who fit their stringent criteria. Nigerian banks are highly liquid; the constraint on credit growth has rarely been capital, but the ability to assess and price the borrowers who sit outside the traditional file. Close that gap, and the whole ecosystem strengthens: banks grow their loan books into segments they have long wanted to serve, and the real economy gets the capital it needs to expand.
This is precisely what we focus on at Mathesis Analytics: building AI-powered credit decisioning that gives lenders a fuller, more defensible picture of the individuals long excluded as high-risk when they were simply misjudged. The Nigerian credit gap has never been a non-lendable population problem, but one of incomplete visibility. By unifying varied data sources and partnering with the institutions that hold the capital and scale to move the market, we translate out-of-ecosystem behaviour into reliable, bank-grade risk scores. Closing this gap is one of the clearest, highest-leverage opportunities in Nigerian financial services today.
Winston Osuchukwu is the founder & CEO of Mathesis Analytics
