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Peter Obi, Prospects and Challenges

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Peter Obi Obidient

By Jerome-Mario Chijioke Utomi

This piece stemmed from two uniquely similar but different sources. First is a WhatsApp picture of Peter Obi, the Labour Party presidential flag bearer and his running mate, Dr Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, which I recently stumbled upon on a group platform.

The referenced portrait was laced with the following inscriptions; Nigeria Has Never Had It This Good! No missing certificates, excellent academic achievements, good, verifiable track records, good business administration and no criminal records.

While reflecting on the portrait and its messages, I got yet another WhatsApp message. Like the first, it reads; ‘Obicracy is a system where the masses choose a competent leader without structure over incompetent leader with full structure’.

To cross-check the validity of these claims about Peter Obi’s popularity, I sought a telephone conversation with a cross-section of quietly influential Nigerians. While all comments were validly important and appreciated, the observations by Tony Ezeagwu, Chairman, Labour Party, Delta state/Coordinator, Peter Obi Campaign Organization, and another by Iwemdi Nwaham, member of People Democratic Party (PDP), not only stood out but formed the nucleus of the present discourse.

‘Like a boil that can never be cured as long as it is covered up until it is opened with all its pus-flowing ugliness to the natural medicine of air and light, their remarks respectively brought to surface the hidden prospects and concerns inherent in Obi’s movement to where it can be seen and treated. Most importantly, the duo subjected Obi’s quest for the presidency to the light of human conscience and the air of national opinion.

Beginning with Tony Ezeagwu, he was not only emphatic as to Obi’s prospect but categorical as to why Nigerians should elect him as their next President.

In his words; as you can see, Nigeria as a country is in a state of decay. Everything has gone wrong, people are suffering, and schools are closed. No hospital to attend. People are being kidnapped and the people have no answer to all that is happening. And you have also heard of Obi’s background particularly when he was a governor.

‘You have heard all he did in Anambra State, how he revived the state. You know what made them impeach him on two different occasions. But each time he goes to the court, the court returns him to the office because of his steadfastness to doing the right thing. He was sure of what he was doing in the office as a Governor. He was doing the right thing and not the wrong thing. Even when they alleged that he did not follow due process and the rest of it, the court insisted that the man followed due process, except if it is a different thing that you are looking for’.

Waxing philosophical, he asked rhetorically; do you know that it is in washing hands that we know who will scramble for the food? And are you also aware that charity begins at home? What you were not taught at your youthful age, you cannot learn in old age. Obi has taught us not to talk about other people. Instead, we should tell Nigerians what he is going to do and what he has done in the past-as that is better than looking into what others have done. Whether they have done well or have done wrong. It is Nigerians that have to say that.

He further stressed that the most important thing is that what he did in Anambra stands him out. Anambra, he explained, is a state, just as Nigeria is a state. If we are talking about the Ministry of Health in Anambra, there is nothing different between the Ministry of Health in Anambra State and the Federal Ministry of Health. If we are talking about the Ministry of Agriculture in Anambra state, there is nothing different from that of the Ministry of Agriculture at the federal level. So, he is only going to replicate whatever he has done in the past.

The only thing is that it is going to be at a larger scope now and because it is on a larger scope, it will require larger resources to spend on those demands. It is not the size of the fund that is in Anambra as a state that is at the federal level. The only thing is that the size of the man’s thinking, the ability that he used in Anambra is the same ability that he is going to use at the federal level. I think it is a very simple and straightforward thing. Anybody who is talking about Anambra being a small state and the rest of it might not be getting it right.

The issue is; does Peter Obi know what to do? That is the question.

‘I am sure you are aware that the issue we are talking about is somebody who will look at a problem on the ground and not only know what to do but figure out the solution. That is exactly what we are talking about. And if you see the people Labour Party is parading now; president and vice presidential aspirants, you will know that first and foremost, two of them possess the energy needed to function at that capacity. They are young people. They are successful entrepreneurs. So, they know what to do to make Nigeria great’.

At this point, he said something very interesting; Obi is not promising the youth anything extra-ordinary than what they are entitled to.

So, what are those things that they are entitled to? I queried.

Look, he responded; first and foremost they are entitled to a good life. Secondly, they are entitled to go to school and if you have a course of four years, you will do it for four years and not for eight years. Thirdly, when you graduate, you will get a job. Fourthly, our people used to call Benue State the food basket of the nation. Today, Benue State is no longer the food basket. They have been driven out of the bush and their farms and you don’t expect us (Nigerians) to be getting food the way they used to. Go to Zamfara State, people are being slaughtered every day. Go to Kaduna State, people are being slaughtered every day. So, what he is going to do is that he has to bring Nigeria to oneness again. It will no longer be Christian/Muslim or Hausa/Igbo, Yoruba or South versus North. It has to be if you are a Nigerian, you are a Nigerian. That is what he wants to put in place.

However, while Tony exudes confidence about how Peter Obi will win the forthcoming presidential election and turn the fortunes of this country around, Iwemdi Nwaham, a member of PDP in Delta State, said something new and different.

He said, I don’t have a contrary opinion as per observation. I only have a contrary opinion as per actualization. When you open social media, when you look around you, you just find people who are ‘Obidient’ all over the place. You go to school, you go to a motor park, palm wine drinking bar, and honestly, the mileage of stocks is in favour of Obi because Obi is saying the right things. Obi is really touching on the nerves and this is where APC must know that they have thrown up an Obi because of the way they have misruled this country. You know, when you come out of that, you look at the ingredients for electoral victory.

‘The ingredient for electoral victory is not just to sit down in a palm wine bar and talk. It is much more. When they say structure, you have to have a structure and because of the way people are interpreting it, I don’t even like using the word structure anymore but it is real. In party politics, you entrench yourself, you put certain tentacles into the ground. If you don’t have it, you will just ramble around it’.

I tell you, Peter Obi might not even score 30 per cent in Anambra State of the votes that will be cast for president. But he is so popular; people like to listen to him. His messages are resonating everywhere. He will get to the presidency but not in 2023. There are certain things that must be in place in dismantling the skewed nature of Nigeria. Nigeria is too skewed in favour of one ethnic group and it is not fair. Those things that will be done to dismantle it cannot be done by Peter Obi or Tinubu. It can only be done by somebody like them who will say ‘look my people, I think this unfairness has become too much. We have gone too far. This country might go into a conflagration if we don’t apply sense’. Then he now begins to reorder gradually. It cannot be done mechanically. He concluded.

Whatever may be the case; this piece on its part holds the opinion that the current administration has no clear definition of our problem as a nation, the goals to be achieved, or the means to address the problems and achieve the goals. Secondly, the system has virtually no consideration for connecting the poor with good means of livelihood-food, jobs, and security. This is the only possible explanation for the present situation and a fact that has made the need for a third force in the coming 2023 general election important!!!

Utomi is the Programme Coordinator (Media and Public Policy), Social and Economic Justice Advocacy (SEJA), Lagos. He can be reached via [email protected]/08032725374

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Five Practical Holiday Saving Habits for Nigerian Households

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Osasikemwen Ighile FairMoney

By Osasikemwen Ighile

For many Nigerian families, the summer holiday is a season of fun, relaxation, and spending quality time together. But with the kids at home, more outings, higher electricity consumption, and extra entertainment costs, it’s also a period when expenses can quietly pile up.

The good news? You don’t have to choose between making memories and managing your finances. With a few smart habits, you can enjoy the holidays while keeping your savings goals on track.

Here are five practical ways to save smarter this summer.

1. Ditch Cash and Spend Smarter 

Ever noticed how cash disappears faster than you expected? Whether it’s buying snacks for the kids, paying for transport, or making quick market runs, spending cash can make it difficult to track where your money goes.

Using a debit card can make it easier to track transactions and monitor spending. FairMoney customers can use their debit card for eligible transactions, subject to applicable terms and conditions. You can make payments conveniently at stores, shop online, and easily monitor your transactions. Instead of carrying cash everywhere, you get a clearer picture of your expenses and can avoid unnecessary impulse purchases.

Small changes like this can make a big difference over the course of the holiday.

2. The Kids Are Home—Stay Ahead of Your Utility Bills  

School holidays often mean one thing: the TV is almost always on. From cartoons in the morning to football matches in the evening, your cable subscription becomes more important than ever. Add fans, air conditioners, gaming consoles, and other appliances, and it’s easy to see why electricity bills tend to increase during this period.

Rather than waiting until services are disconnected, planning and paying bills on time help households avoid unnecessary late-payment or reconnection charges. FairMoney customers can pay eligible bills and services through the platform, subject to applicable terms and service availability. You can conveniently pay for Cable TV subscriptions, Electricity bills, Internet subscriptions, Airtime and data for the entire family.

Paying bills on time can help reduce the risk of late payment consequences or applicable reconnection charges. Summer is filled with birthdays, outings, family visits, and spontaneous spending. While these moments are worth enjoying, your savings shouldn’t take a holiday.

3. Enjoy the Holidays—but Don’t Pause Your Savings 

A simple strategy is to save first before spending. FairMoney customers can also use eligible savings products, such as FairSave and FairTarget, to set aside money towards specific financial goals, subject to the applicable product terms, conditions and eligibility requirements, even if it’s in small amounts. Already planning for the next school term? FairMoney customers can also use eligible savings products, such as FairSave and FairTarget, to set aside money towards specific financial goals, subject to the applicable product terms, conditions and eligibility requirements. Already planning for the next school term? Consider setting aside money regularly towards your school-fee goal. FairTarget can be used to help you organise savings around specific financial goals, subject to the applicable product terms, conditions and eligibility requirements. By starting early and saving consistently, you can better prepare for school-related expenses when the new term begins.

4. Plan Weekly Family Activities Instead of Daily Spending

The holidays don’t have to be expensive to be memorable. Instead of spending money every day on outings, cinemas, or restaurants, create a simple weekly activity plan. One weekend could be a family movie night at home. Another could be a picnic in a nearby park, a cooking competition, indoor games, or a visit to relatives.

Planning activities ahead helps you control spending while still giving everyone something to look forward to. Sometimes, the best memories cost very little.

5. Buy Household Essentials in Bulk

With everyone at home, groceries seem to disappear twice as fast. Instead of making frequent trips to the store, which often lead to impulse purchases, consider buying regularly used items in bulk.

Depending on the retailer and quantity purchased, some household essentials may offer better value when purchased in bulk.. You’ll spend less on transportation, reduce unplanned shopping, and avoid running out of important items.

Summer should be about creating happy memories not financial headaches. By spending more intentionally, paying your bills on time, planning ahead, and staying committed to your savings goals, you can enjoy everything the season has to offer without putting unnecessary pressure on your finances.

A few smart habits today can make the months ahead much easier. And that’s a win for every household.

Osasikemwen Ighile is the Brand Manager for FairMoney Microfinance Bank

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Beyond the Screen: How Sports and Entertainment Keep Nigeria’s Economy Moving

When we talk about Nigeria’s economy, the conversation usually centres on oil and gas, banking, agriculture, manufacturing and technology. But there is another industry quietly creating jobs and driving economic activity: entertainment and sports. Most times, we only see the finished product. We watch the show, cheer during the match and move on to the […]

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Sports and Entertainment

When we talk about Nigeria’s economy, the conversation usually centres on oil and gas, banking, agriculture, manufacturing and technology. But there is another industry quietly creating jobs and driving economic activity: entertainment and sports. Most times, we only see the finished product. We watch the show, cheer during the match and move on to the next thing. What we do not always see is the amount of work that happens before those moments reach our screens.

Take Big Brother Naija

When viewers tune in and see the housemates moving around the Big Brother house, it is easy to forget that the house itself is a product of many people’s work. From the interior designers and set builders who create the spaces to the electricians, carpenters, painters and technicians who bring them to life, an entire team works behind the scenes before the first episode even begins.

Once the cameras start rolling, the list gets even longer. Producers, directors, camera operators, sound engineers, editors, stylists, makeup artists, caterers, production assistants and security personnel all have a role to play. Then there is everything that happens outside the house. Publicists, photographers, videographers, digital teams, content creators and media platforms all contribute to keeping the conversation going. The housemates may be the faces audiences remember, but they are only one part of a much bigger entertainment ecosystem.

Sports have a similar impact

When the Super Falcons play a major game, the focus is naturally on the players and what happens on the pitch. But outside the stadium, the game can mean business for viewing centres, food vendors, restaurants and bars. Sports analysts and commentators have more to cover, content creators have something new to create around and businesses selling jerseys and football merchandise get an opportunity to make sales.

A major sporting event can turn an ordinary evening into a busy one for businesses that have little to do with what happens on the pitch. That is the part of sports and entertainment that is easy to overlook. The value is not only in the stars we see or the content we consume. It is also in the network of people whose skills and businesses keep these industries moving.

And this is where DStv and GOtv become an important part of the picture. They do more than give audiences access to the shows, matches and moments they care about. They connect the people producing this content with millions of viewers who keep the industry going.

Every time someone tunes in to Big Brother Naija, follows the Super Falcons or settles in for a major sporting event, they are engaging with an industry that supports producers, creatives, technicians, businesses and other professionals.

The impact of sports and entertainment, therefore, goes beyond what happens on the screen. By bringing some of the biggest entertainment and sporting moments to Nigerian audiences, DStv and GOtv help keep this ecosystem active, visible and working. Because sometimes, when we sit down to watch, we are not just consuming entertainment. We are also supporting an industry that provides jobs.

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Nigeria May Have Escaped Fiscal Cliff; Now Build an Economy Worth the Sacrifice

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Nigeria economy Fiscal Cliff

By Blaise Udunze

Three years after the removal of the fuel subsidy and the adjustment of the foreign-exchange regime, Nigeria’s revenue and external positions have improved significantly. After escaping the fiscal cliff as touted, but with the United States questioning the country’s fiscal transparency, the harder question is whether these gains can be translated into an economy worthy of the sacrifice Nigerians have endured.

There is an uncomfortable concern and interrogation Nigeria must confront as it evaluates the economic reforms that began in 2023, which has to do with understanding the consequences Nigeria would have faced without reform.

What if the petrol subsidy had remained? What if the foreign-exchange market had continued under its old distortions? What if government had not intensified revenue mobilisation through taxation, VAT, customs collections, statutory revenues and electronic money transfer levies? What if the loopholes that allowed significant economic activity to escape the tax net had remained largely untouched?

The question matters because the pain associated with the reforms has become so visible that it is easy to forget the economic crisis they were designed to prevent.

Three years later, Nigeria’s economic story is more complicated. On one hand, the numbers indicate a significant expansion in the government’s revenue-generating capacity and external buffers. On the other, the lived experiences of households continue to face severe pressure from food prices, transportation costs, inflation and declining purchasing power.

Significantly, the tax collection figures have risen from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion by July 2026, a 113 per cent increase in less than three years, according to figures furnished by the Nigeria Revenue Service. The agency has linked the increase to tax reforms, digitalisation, new tax laws and efforts to close revenue leakages.

Nigeria’s gross external reserves have also risen to $52.52 billion as of July 17, 2026, from $50.47 billion at the end of May, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria. The reserve level is reported to provide roughly 11 months of import cover, well above the conventional three-month benchmark.

These are significant developments. But they do not, by themselves, prove that Nigeria has completed its fiscal recovery.

The United States Government’s 2026 Fiscal Transparency Report reportedly found that Nigeria had made insufficient progress in fiscal transparency. It said government budget documents did not provide a comprehensive picture of revenues and expenditures, raised concerns about discrepancies between approved budgets and actual implementation, and criticised weaknesses in the independence and reporting of Nigeria’s supreme audit institution.

That criticism strikes at the heart of the reform narrative. More revenue is not necessarily the same thing as more fiscal credibility.

A government can collect more money without demonstrating clearly how all of it is spent. A country can accumulate foreign reserves while still leaving questions about the completeness and transparency of its public accounts.

This does not erase Nigeria’s fiscal gains. It does, however, mean the gains must be subjected to greater scrutiny.

The removal of the petrol subsidy was arguably the most consequential reform, as this remains visible to the people. More confusing is that for many years, Nigeria devoted enormous public resources to keeping petrol prices artificially low. Deceitfully, as it were, the policy created an illusion of cheap energy and at the same time, fraudulently consumed resources that could otherwise have supported infrastructure, healthcare, education, social protection and productive investment.

The World Bank, at the outset, estimated that subsidy removal would save approximately N2 trillion in 2023, with cumulative savings projected to exceed N11 trillion between 2023 and 2025, and this was compared with a scenario in which the subsidy continued.

In reality, and as a response to one of the queries, if Nigeria had refused to remove the subsidy, the implication is that the government would have had to find more than N11 trillion to sustain it over that period or absorb the cost through additional borrowing, expenditure cuts or arrears.

In such a situation, it would be said that the reform therefore did not eliminate the economic cost. It changed where the cost appeared.

Before reform, much of the cost was hidden in government finances. After reform, it became visible in petrol prices, transportation costs, food prices and household expenditure.

The social cost was immediate. The World Bank reported that retail gasoline prices rose by an average of 163 per cent following subsidy removal.

Yet the alternative was not cost-free. It was a system in which government continued subsidising consumption while struggling to finance development.

Nigeria was therefore not choosing between pain and no pain. It was choosing between immediate adjustment and potentially greater fiscal pressure later.

Honestly, one of the strongest pieces of evidence that Nigeria’s fiscal architecture today has changed is found in the revenue numbers, especially where it is said that tax collections increased from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion by July 2026, an additional N14.8 trillion.

Nigeria had therefore collected by July 2026 more than twice the 2023 tax take, even though the 2026 figure covers only seven months. That signals a potentially important shift from chronic revenue weakness toward stronger tax mobilisation.

Nigeria’s revenue problem has never been solely about tax rates. It has also involved a narrow tax base, informality, weak enforcement, leakages and the government’s limited ability to capture economic activity.

Digitalisation, improved enforcement and new tax laws can change that. But the N27.1 trillion figure must be interpreted carefully. It represents tax revenue, not total government revenue, and is a nominal figure. Inflation, exchange-rate movements and higher nominal transaction values can contribute to the increase.

For proper verification of the development, the real test is whether the growth represents a sustained improvement in the tax-to-GDP ratio, fiscal capacity and public accountability.

The broader revenue picture reinforces the transformation. Reviewing the figures, World Bank data showed VAT rising from N3.6 trillion in 2023 to N6.7 trillion in 2024, an increase of about N3.1 trillion or 86 per cent. Also, Customs revenue rose from N2.0 trillion to N3.4 trillion, adding N1.4 trillion, or roughly 69 per cent.

Further data from the Bank showed that oil and gas royalties increased from N2.4 trillion to N6.3 trillion, while oil and gas taxes rose from N2.9 trillion to N5.9 trillion. Federal independent revenues also increased from approximately N2.0 trillion to N4.4 trillion.

These increases cannot all be interpreted as pure productivity gains. Inflation and exchange-rate movements matter. Nevertheless, they show that the government has expanded its capacity to mobilise revenue.

The latest FAAC figures reinforce the point. In June 2026 alone, gross revenue available to the Federation was N4.501 trillion, comprising N3.701 trillion in statutory revenue and N799.746 billion in VAT. That monthly figure would amount to roughly N54 trillion annually if sustained, although such annualisation should not be interpreted as a forecast.

The more important question is now changing. It is no longer simply: “Where will government find money?” It is: “What is government doing with the money and can Nigerians independently verify it?”

That question becomes even more important when viewed against the foreign-exchange reforms.

Nigeria’s old FX structure produced distortions, shortages and opportunities for arbitrage. The subsequent adjustment was painful, as the naira lost substantial value and imported goods, machinery, raw materials and other inputs became more expensive.

But the same adjustment increased the naira value of foreign-currency-linked government revenues.

That creates another reform inconsistency: The exchange-rate adjustment that strengthened government’s nominal revenue position also weakened household purchasing power.

Customs collections illustrate this. As the naira value of dollar-denominated imports rises, customs revenue can increase in naira terms. But importers pay more, manufacturers face higher input costs, and consumers ultimately bear much of the cost.

A reform can therefore strengthen government finances while worsening the immediate economics of households and businesses.

The much-touted fiscal cliff is the reserve story; nevertheless, it represents an important macroeconomic gain. Nigeria’s gross external reserves reached $52.52 billion by July 17, 2026, up from $50.47 billion at the end of May. Compared with roughly $40 billion at the end of 2024, reserves have increased by more than $12 billion. The CBN says the current reserve position provides approximately 11 months of import cover.

For a country that spent years battling FX shortages, reserve depletion and pressure on the naira, a stronger external buffer is important. It improves resilience against external shocks and strengthens the credibility of the country’s external position.

But stronger reserves do not automatically mean Nigeria has completely “escaped the fiscal cliff.” Foreign reserves are primarily an external-sector buffer. Fiscal sustainability concerns government revenue, expenditure, deficits, debt, debt servicing and the credibility of public financial management.

Conflating the two would weaken rather than strengthen Nigeria’s reform argument. The counterfactual, however, remains compelling. Suppose the subsidy had remained. Suppose the old FX regime had continued. Suppose tax administration had not been digitised. Suppose VAT and customs collections had not improved.

Also, suppose tax revenue had remained around N12.3 trillion, rather than reaching N27.1 trillion by July 2026. The fact is that the government would have had fewer resources while continuing to carry the subsidy burden. Foreign-exchange distortions would have remained. Reserve accumulation would have been harder. Borrowing requirements would likely have increased, while debt service would continue competing with development spending.

The arithmetic would have been brutal when adding together: high subsidy expenditure, weak revenue, FX distortions and persistent deficits would amount to greater borrowing pressure.

Then, adding together: greater borrowing and high interest rates are equal to heavier debt service. And finally: heavier debt service plus weak revenue results in less money for development.

Come to think of the trend in the past, Nigeria might have enjoyed cheaper petrol and avoided some of the immediate inflationary shock, but it would likely have been postponing rather than eliminating the adjustment.

That is why the reforms were necessary. But necessary reform is not the same as successful reform. This is where the U.S. fiscal-transparency assessment becomes significant.

For investors, lenders, development institutions and citizens, transparency is an economic asset. If approved budgets cannot easily be reconciled with actual implementation, if revenue and expenditure information is incomplete, or if independent auditing is considered inadequate, confidence suffers.

Obscurity has an economic cost. It can increase the perceived risk of investing in the country, raise the cost of capital, weaken public trust and make genuine economic improvements harder to believe. Nigeria therefore needs to move beyond revenue mobilisation toward revenue integrity.

This aspect calls for clarity because if tax collections have risen from N12.3 trillion to N27.1 trillion, citizens deserve to know where the additional N14.8 trillion is going.

One critical truth is that if June 2026 generated N4.501 trillion in gross Federation revenue, citizens deserve to know how that money was allocated and what public value it produced. The same applies: if reserves have risen above $52.5 billion, policymakers must clearly explain the sources and sustainability of the accumulation. Also, if the removal of subsidies generated billions of naira in savings, Nigerians deserve a transparent accounting of those savings.

Transparency is therefore not an administrative luxury. It is part of the economic reform itself. More revenue does not automatically mean a healthier economy. A doubling of tax collections sounds spectacular. A $52.5 billion reserve position sounds impressive.

But nominal revenue can rise while real incomes fall. Customs revenue can increase because the naira value of imports has risen. VAT can increase because prices have risen even while households consume less in real terms. Foreign reserves can improve while citizens struggle with food prices.

The fiscal deficit also remains. This is as the IMF’s 2026 assessment projects government revenue and grants at around 10.8 per cent of GDP against expenditure and net lending of about 14.2 per cent. This left a deficit of approximately 4.4 per cent of GDP.

It would be recalled that Nigeria’s 2026 federal budget provides for N34.33 trillion in expected revenue against N58.18 trillion in expenditure, as this includes N15.52 trillion for debt servicing, producing a projected deficit of N23.85 trillion, or 4.28 per cent of GDP.

These figures demonstrate that Nigeria’s fiscal adjustment is unfinished. A country can collect more revenue and still run a large deficit. It can increase tax revenue and still borrow. It can accumulate reserves and still have millions of citizens struggling.

And it can improve macroeconomic indicators while facing legitimate questions about whether its fiscal accounts provide the complete picture.

The next phase must therefore focus on expenditure quality, transparency, independent auditing and productivity.

Nigeria’s first stage was stabilisation: remove the unsustainable subsidy, correct FX distortions, improve revenue mobilisation, digitalise tax administration, close leakages, rebuild reserves and restore fiscal credibility. But stabilisation is not prosperity. The next stage must be transformation.

The additional N14.8 trillion represented by the increase in tax collections must translate into productive economic capacity. Stronger revenue must support electricity, transport infrastructure, healthcare, education, agriculture, industrial development, security and social protection.

And Nigerians must be able to see and verify what their money is producing. This is where the reform story becomes a test of governance.

No doubt, the following, such as tax collections, have risen from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion by July 2026. Foreign reserves have climbed beyond $52.5 billion. June 2026 generated N4.501 trillion in gross Federation revenue.

The subsidy burden has been substantially reduced. The FX market has undergone fundamental restructuring. These are significant achievements. But they are inputs, not the final outcome.

The final outcome must be a stronger, more productive and more transparent economy. How many Nigerians have moved into productive employment? How much has real household income recovered? How much has electricity reliability improved? How much has agricultural productivity increased? How much has the cost of doing business fallen? How much private capital has been attracted? How much has poverty declined? How much of the approved budget was actually implemented? And can an independent auditor verify the answers?

These questions will determine whether the reforms become transformative. There are two equally flawed positions in the reform debate. The first is to say the reforms were unnecessary because Nigerians are suffering.

The second is to say that because the reforms were necessary, every consequence should simply be accepted. Both are inadequate. Nigeria needed reform. But reform was never the destination.

The subsidy could not remain indefinitely. The distorted FX system could not remain indefinitely. The weak tax base could not remain indefinitely. Government’s ability to borrow indefinitely was also limited.

But Nigerians did not endure the resulting hardship merely to produce better fiscal statistics. They endured it because the promise was that the adjustment would ultimately produce a more stable, productive and prosperous economy. That promise must now be fulfilled and transparently demonstrated.

Nigeria may have moved significantly away from the economic cliff that confronted it in 2023. But stronger revenue and reserves should not be confused with complete fiscal recovery.

The numbers are encouraging. The U.S. transparency concerns are a warning. Both can be true. Nigeria has built greater fiscal space. It has rebuilt part of its external buffer. It has expanded its revenue capacity. Now it must build the bridge from those gains to the Nigerian household.

The country must move from higher revenue to higher productivity; stronger reserves to stronger investment; fiscal consolidation to better public services; GDP growth to better jobs; tax mobilisation to greater opportunity; budget announcements to measurable implementation; and macroeconomic stability to household prosperity.

The central question is no longer whether Nigeria should have reformed. It should have. The more important question is whether the government can now prove that the sacrifice was worth it.

Nigerians did not endure the removal of the fuel subsidy merely to make government finances healthier. They did not endure the naira adjustment merely to improve reserve statistics. They did not accept higher prices merely so that tax collections could rise from N12.3 trillion to N27.1 trillion.

They endured the adjustment because the old economic model had become unsustainable and because reform was supposed to lead somewhere better.

Now comes the harder part. Nigeria must prove that the money is there, that the money is properly accounted for, that it is being spent as authorised and that it is producing results. That is the real meaning of fiscal reform.

Nigeria may have strengthened its fiscal position. It may have rebuilt its external buffer. It may have expanded its revenue capacity. But the journey is not complete until it rebuilds something equally important, which is the public trust in the numbers and prosperity in the lives of its people.

The fiscal cliff may be behind Nigeria. The real challenge now is to build an economy and a fiscal system worthy of the sacrifice.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]

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