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SMEs: Warning Signs of Business Failure in COVID-19 Era

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Signs of Business Failure

By Timi Olubiyi, Ph.D.

The high failure rate of start-ups and SMEs in Nigeria, give a bleak picture of the sector’s potential to contribute significantly to job creation, economic growth and poverty reduction.

The big question is why do businesses fail so easily? This could be adjudged to the fact that most of the SMEs especially the micro-businesses are unstructured and operate informally in the country.

Nonetheless, when these businesses are in the failing path, the entrepreneur or SME operator is unaware of it happening, until it is often too late.

The survival of SMEs is even a bigger worry this time because of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) related negative impact, harsh business environment, insecurity among others.

With the pandemic, virtually every aspect of our lives is affected, with a significant adverse impact on trade, investment, business sustainability, and employment generation.

The primary objective of this article is to present the causes and predictors of the failure of these SMEs in the country.

In the context of this article, the term failure means any form of closure, either through bankruptcy, liquidation, prevention of further losses, abandon and re-starting another business, and/or due to personal choice (such as early retirement).

Small businesses in the context of this article is defined based on the number of employees in a business entity. Therefore, small and medium enterprises (SME) is a business employing 1 to 200 persons.

However, micro business is defined as entities employing 1 to 9 persons and small businesses employ 10 to 49 persons. In a similar vein, medium enterprises are businesses employing 50 to 199 persons. All businesses that employ from 200 persons and above are termed as big or large enterprises.

It is imperative to state that business failure is the last stage of an organization’s life cycle. The failure of SMEs or any business organization is an event which can produce substantial losses to creditors, stakeholders, and/or stockholder.

While there is multitude of conditions and reasons that can result into business failure, the key predictor of SMEs’ failure and death of businesses is the business environment.

Nigeria, like most African countries, lack basic infrastructure and action plan for businesses to thrive conveniently and the environment is a harsh one for businesses especially start-ups.

Even though small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have been proven to be a catalyst for economic development in countries all around the world, this is not entirely the situation in Africa, including Nigeria.

Sadly, the prevalence of business failure usually impacts negatively on national development and growth of any nation.

The prevalent business failure in Nigeria could be one of the major setbacks to economic growth and high unemployment rate in the country.

Records reveal that SMEs are the largest employers of labor globally and if this vital sector suffers failure predominant, then the level of unemployment in the country might not abate.

From observation around, especially in Lagos State, the economic nerve center, and SME hub of the country, only a fraction of new businesses survives for the first five years and only one-third of new businesses can survive for 10 years.

According to Bloomberg, 8 out of 10 entrepreneurs who start businesses fail within the first 18 months, which is a whopping 80 percent business failure rate.

In addition, it is estimated that the failure rate of SMEs in Nigeria is as many as 80 percent within the five years of operation, according to findings of Stanbic IBTC.

Experts also corroborate these assertions, saying about 80 percent of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Nigeria fail within the first five years of their existence due to lack of experience and other wrong business practices.

The anticipated catalyst to this high rate of business failure in Nigeria is the COVID-19 pandemic with the current realities.

We are likely to witness an extremely high post-pandemic business shut down, job loss, and a persistent decrease in outputs and revenue expectations of SMEs in Nigeria.

However, government can do more by rolling out measures to support this SMEs especially through the COVID-19 disruptions.

With government intervention, high number of business failures can be forestalled because the pandemic is already impacting negatively on distribution and supply chain of businesses.

Nonetheless, even though the environment is a critical factor in the ease of doing business, a harsh and difficult one exists in this country with or without COVID-19.

Government action plan and focus is imperative to develop this sector which is widely accepted as economic growth driver.

Recently, a survey conducted on small business in Lagos State indicated that the failure predictors is in two broad categories, namely internal or managerially controllable causes and external or non-controllable causes.

The internal factors the participants of the survey cited are (1) Financial resources like funding inadequacy, lack of profit, poor accounting practice, cash flow inadequacies, lack of viable investment opportunities, and low or no source of income. (2) Physical resources like the company location, abysmal culture, old equipment, and technology issues. (3) Human resources like managerial inadequacy, poor staffing, poor morale and customer dissatisfaction.

Other factors depend on business leaders’ decisions.

Example of this includes no management structure, no differentiation of ownership and management, no succession plan, unprofitable business model, lack of uniqueness, poor knowledge of the operating sector and its value chain, value dysfunctional, even rapid growth and over-expansion was cited, and not in touch with customer needs, etc.

These factors can easily be forecasted with some level of reliability, and therefore, a company has a good chance of reducing this form of business risk.

The company leadership usually have control over internal factors, what is required is just adequate managerial skills and continuous education to set things right.

However, findings indicated that this important feature is usually missing in the SME operators and business leaders.

The external or non-controllable causes of small business failure as perceived by a sample of small business owners and managers surveyed are as follows: government policies, natural factors infrastructure failures and deficits, stiff competition, rising costs of doing business, social, legal and political changes, even common macroeconomic factors such as business cycles, recessions, insecurity, government debt, inflation, high taxation, exchange rates, high-interest rates, excessive regulations, and/or a lack of interest from the public in the business’s offerings are just a few.

The power (electricity) situation in Nigeria has been a great cause for concern for businesses, investors, and citizens at large and is equally significant in the overall performance of the economy.

These infrastructure gaps and weak macroeconomic factors can be blamed on the depressed economy and prevalent business failure in Nigeria.

Because a depressing economy will impact negatively on firm’s sales, which in turn negatively affect firm’s business continuity.

It is imperative to state that these macroeconomic factors and external causes cannot be controlled or forecasted by entrepreneurs and SME operators.

Consequently, it poses a big risk to businesses unless government intervene decisively and give the needed policy responses. This is the big prayer of all SMEs and entrepreneurs in the country.

The warning signs of failure of SMEs are either one or the multiplicity of internal and external factors mentioned above.

SMEs can also fail if the business lack a contingency plan to react and mitigate any of the challenges in the event of any crisis.

The best way to manage and mitigate business failure due to these factors is to maintain an adequate level of capital.

A company with adequate financial resources can more effectively weather some level of business risk. Even at that, it is important to state that the prevalence of business failure is a vital indicator of the state of economy in any country.

Conclusively, despite the high rate of business failure much is still desired, if 80 percent of new businesses fail, according to Bloomberg, then 20 percent of new businesses can succeed and this percentage can also scale up. But how? Whether you desire to start a new business or you are already running a business, you must understand that success depends on careful strategic planning and sound fiscal management.

SME operators need to critically identify the actual business growth drivers and leverage strongly on them for sustainable business study.

With the COVID-19 pandemic forcing most SME operators to work remotely or even stay at home, this new normal could affect service quality and also cause severe business disruption.

Therefore, entrepreneurs need to understand the current competitive marketspace, customers’ needs and their current buying habits.

For SME operators to stem the tide of the current realities, effective communication with employees and customers is necessary to thrive, this can be achieved with effective use of technology and mobile telephony.

Furthermore, strategy to mitigate the predictors of business failure along with adequate business process review needs to be in place to cope with the operational stress generated by COVID-19.

Additionally, it is key to leverage on technological innovation and adopt a workable risk management strategy. When this strategy is in place, companies can anticipate the risks and respond appropriately to guarantee business sustainability. Good luck!

How may you obtain advice or further information on the article? 

Dr. Timi Olubiyi holds a Ph.D. in Entrepreneurship and Small Business Management. He is a prolific investment coach, Chartered Member of the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI) and a financial literacy specialist. He can be reached on the twitter handle @drtimiolubiyi and via email: drtimiolubiyi@gmail.com,for any questions, reactions, and comments.

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Nigeria’s Bold Strides Towards a Sustainable Future

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Alex Oware YP4T

By Alex Oware

President Bola Tinubu has firmly established Nigeria as a proactive and visionary leader in the global pursuit of climate action and sustainable development. Recognising that environmental stewardship is intrinsically linked to economic prosperity, his administration has moved beyond viewing climate change as a mere ecological concern, positioning it instead as a pivotal economic opportunity ripe for exploration and investment.

President Tinubu’s emphatic pronouncements at the 2025 Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week and during a high-level virtual dialogue underscored Nigeria’s unwavering commitment to international collaboration, emphasising the critical need for a unified global response to the escalating climate crisis. He astutely highlighted that the realisation of a truly sustainable future necessitates robust global interconnectedness and a shared sense of responsibility amongst all nations.

Nigeria’s comprehensive strategy for tackling the multifaceted challenges of climate change rests upon three fundamental pillars: a decisive shift towards clean energy transition, the building of robust climate resilience, and an overarching commitment to sustainable development. To translate these core principles into tangible realities, the current administration is actively implementing a range of key initiatives designed to wean the nation off its reliance on traditional fossil fuels.

A significant aspect of this endeavor involves the substantial expansion of infrastructure to support the widespread adoption of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and electric vehicles. Simultaneously, the government is strategically focusing on harnessing Nigeria’s abundant solid mineral resources to provide crucial materials for the burgeoning green energy sector.

Complementing these efforts are the implementation of climate-smart agricultural practices, aimed at simultaneously enhancing national food security and minimising detrimental environmental impacts.

Furthermore, the newly introduced National Clean Cooking Policy seeks to promote clean energy solutions at the household level, promising significant environmental, health, and socio-economic benefits for Nigerian citizens.

These ambitious endeavors are meticulously designed to deliver palpable value and positive impact directly to the lives of Nigerians. The diversification of energy sources holds the promise of cleaner air and a significantly healthier environment for communities across the nation.

The active promotion of CNG as a viable alternative fuel is strategically aimed at mitigating the economic and social hardships that have arisen from the removal of fuel subsidies, offering a more affordable and sustainable energy option for transportation and domestic use. The widespread adoption of climate-smart agriculture is paramount for bolstering food security, ensuring a stable and reliable food supply, and safeguarding vulnerable local communities from the increasingly severe adverse effects of climate change, such as droughts and floods.

Moreover, the deliberate expansion of the green energy sector is projected to generate a wealth of new employment opportunities and empower local entrepreneurs, particularly in rural communities that are gaining access to reliable and sustainable electricity for the first time.

In a demonstrably bold move that underscores the administration’s commitment to these overarching goals, President Tinubu’s government has put forward a significant N10 billion solar power project specifically for the Aso Rock Presidential Villa. This ambitious initiative is presented as a crucial step towards establishing a more sustainable and dependable energy future for the entire nation, starting from the highest levels of governance.

Proponents of the project persuasively argue that it aligns seamlessly with global best practices, drawing parallels with the increasing adoption of solar energy in key government institutions worldwide. The Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN) has vigorously defended the project, asserting that it is fully in line with President Tinubu’s broader reforms aimed at fundamentally transforming Nigeria’s energy landscape and decisively tackling the persistent and crippling energy debt crisis.

The ECN further emphasises that solar energy offers inherent efficiency, provides a crucial shield for Nigerians against the volatility of rising tariffs on conventional energy sources, and has the potential to significantly ease the immense pressure currently burdening the national electricity grid.

While the project has understandably sparked public debate and scrutiny regarding its substantial cost and prioritisation in the face of other pressing national needs, the government strategically positions it as an innovative approach that demonstrates leadership by example and a profound commitment to integrating clean energy solutions at the very apex of Nigerian governance.

Beyond these crucial domestic initiatives, President Tinubu has actively and strategically sought robust international collaboration and support for Africa’s complex transition towards a green economy, fully acknowledging that the necessary investments are inherently capital-intensive.

Nigeria has already demonstrated commendable leadership on the continental stage by being the first African nation to successfully launch Sovereign Green Bonds, specifically designed to finance environmentally sustainable projects across various sectors.

Furthermore, the country is actively in the process of developing a comprehensive Global Climate Change Investment Fund, with the primary aim of attracting substantial further investment in critical green infrastructure and innovative clean energy initiatives.

Nigeria remains steadfast in its commitment to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the ambitious target year of 2060 and is actively engaged in the crucial process of updating its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the esteemed UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

The recent finalisation of the Nigeria Carbon Market Activation Policy in March 2025 is projected to unlock a substantial potential of up to $2.5 billion in valuable carbon credit investments by the pivotal year of 2030. This influx of capital is expected to further bolster climate-aligned economic growth and create new avenues for sustainable development.

Moreover, Nigeria is actively collaborating with various United Nations agencies to develop a comprehensive guideline for a just transition towards a fully decarbonised economy. This crucial collaboration ensures that the inevitable shift towards clean energy and climate-resilient solutions is implemented in a manner that leaves no community or economic sector behind, prioritising the creation of green jobs, the development of essential skills, and comprehensive capacity-building initiatives across the nation.

President Tinubu’s overarching strategy underscores a holistic and integrated approach that seamlessly weaves climate action into Nigeria’s broader development agenda, recognising it not as a separate concern but as a fundamental strategic imperative for sustained economic growth and comprehensive national transformation.

By diligently pursuing these comprehensive and interconnected strategies, Nigeria aims not only to effectively address the urgent and pressing challenges posed by climate change but also to unlock significant and lasting economic and social benefits for all its citizens, paving a clear and sustainable pathway towards a resilient, equitable, and prosperous future for generations to come.

Alex Oware is the Regional Director for YP4T

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Navigating the Maze: Solutions for Nigeria’s Flourishing Foodtech Industry

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Diana Tenebe food security challenges in Nigeria

By Diana Tenebe

Nigeria’s foodtech sector holds immense promise to transform our nation’s food production, distribution, and consumption systems. However, this burgeoning industry currently navigates a complex maze of challenges that could significantly hinder its progress.

While innovation and entrepreneurial drive are abundant, a confluence of infrastructural deficits, economic headwinds, technological disparities, and logistical complexities casts a shadow on the sector’s long-term viability.

Understanding and addressing these multifaceted hurdles is paramount for foodtech companies aspiring to thrive and contribute meaningfully to Nigeria’s food security.

One of the most significant impediments to the foodtech sector’s advancement is Nigeria’s persistent infrastructural weaknesses. The unreliable power supply, a well-known constraint for businesses nationwide, directly threatens food preservation, increasing spoilage risks and driving up operational costs for companies reliant on refrigeration and consistent processing.

Similarly, the often-deteriorated state of our road networks complicates logistics and transportation, hindering the efficient movement of goods from farms to consumers and across the supply chain.

Furthermore, limited access to clean water exacerbates operational challenges, particularly for maintaining food processing and hygiene standards. Collectively, these infrastructural shortcomings inflate operational expenses and introduce vulnerabilities throughout the food supply chain.

Economic constraints add another layer of intricacy. Fluctuations in currency exchange rates create instability in pricing and procurement, especially for businesses dealing with imported technologies or ingredients. Persistent inflation erodes consumer purchasing power and increases the cost of essential inputs, squeezing profit margins for startups.

Moreover, limited access to credit and investment capital makes it difficult for emerging foodtech companies to secure the necessary funding to invest in crucial technology, infrastructure, and expansion efforts. This financial constraint can stifle innovation and prevent promising ventures from reaching their full potential.

The digital divide also poses a unique challenge for foodtech companies aiming to leverage online platforms and digital solutions. While mobile phone usage is widespread in Nigeria, disparities in digital literacy and access to reliable internet connectivity can restrict the widespread adoption of online food ordering and delivery services, particularly in rural and underserved communities. This necessitates creative and inclusive strategies to bridge the digital gap and reach a broader consumer base.

Inefficiencies within the supply chain represent a critical bottleneck in the Nigerian food system. Fragmented agricultural supply chains, characterised by numerous intermediaries and a lack of transparency, contribute to alarmingly high post-harvest losses.

Inadequate storage facilities and inefficient transportation infrastructure further compound these issues, leading to significant waste and price volatility. Addressing these systemic weaknesses is crucial for ensuring a stable and affordable food supply for all Nigerians.

Navigating Nigeria’s regulatory landscape can also be a daunting task for foodtech businesses. The presence of multiple regulatory agencies, coupled with often bureaucratic and time-consuming processes for obtaining licenses and permits, can create significant hurdles for startups. Clear, consistent, and streamlined processes within the regulatory framework are essential to foster a more enabling environment for innovation and growth.

Building consumer trust and acceptance for new food technologies requires overcoming inherent skepticism and unfamiliarity. Concerns regarding food safety, quality, and the security of online transactions can hinder the adoption of novel food products and digital platforms. Transparent communication, robust quality control measures, and consistent consumer engagement are vital for building confidence and fostering widespread acceptance.

Finally, a notable talent gap exists within the Nigerian foodtech ecosystem. A shortage of professionals possessing specialised skills in food science, technology, business management, and logistics can limit the growth and innovation capacity of companies in this sector. Addressing this skills deficit through targeted training and development initiatives is crucial for long-term success.

Despite these significant challenges, promising pathways forward can be forged through innovative and context-specific approaches. Investing in localised infrastructure solutions, such as independent power generation and efficient localised logistics networks, can mitigate the impact of broader infrastructural deficiencies.

Exploring diverse funding avenues beyond traditional banking, including angel investors, government grants, crowdfunding, and revenue-based financing, can alleviate financial constraints.

Adapting to the digital divide by leveraging basic mobile technology and employing offline strategies like local agent networks can expand reach and inclusivity. Building resilient supply chains through direct farmer relationships, investing in aggregation centres, and utilising technology for farm management offer tangible solutions to logistical inefficiencies.

Proactive engagement with regulatory bodies and advocating for clearer, more supportive policies are crucial for navigating the regulatory landscape effectively. Building consumer trust necessitates transparent sourcing practices, clear communication about product benefits and safety, and active engagement with consumer feedback.

Finally, investing in talent development through collaborations with educational institutions and in-house training programs can bridge the critical skills gap.

Foodstuff Store is emerging as a business with a clear vision to directly confront several of these challenges. We are actively developing a decentralised network of businesses supported by strategically located distribution hubs across target states. This approach will directly address the limitations imposed by poor road networks, ensuring more localised access to our food products.

Furthermore, the establishment of regional storage facilities, including a state-of-the-art solar-powered cold storage, directly tackles infrastructural deficiencies related to food preservation and ensuring a consistent supply.

Foodstuff Store’s ambition for end-to-end management of the food supply chain, encompassing in-house production, direct sourcing, advanced storage solutions, and efficient distribution, offers a powerful solution to existing supply chain inefficiencies.

This integrated approach promises enhanced quality control, significant reductions in post-harvest losses, and a more reliable supply of both perishable and non-perishable goods for our customers.

Our aspiration to become the “Amazon for Food Products” is a clear and ambitious goal underpinned by a technology-driven approach to all aspects of our operational management. Foodstuff Store’s vision underscores a business model strategically designed to overcome significant hurdles within the Nigerian foodtech sector, offering a beacon of potential and a pathway to a more secure and efficient food system in a challenging yet remarkably promising landscape.

By Diana Tenebe is the Chief Operating Officer of Foodstuff Store

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President’s Katsina State Visit Exposes Disconnect from People’s Needs

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tinubu in katsina

By Abba Dukawa

The recent visit by the President Bola Tinubu to Katsina State has sparked concerns about the disconnect between the government’s priorities and the people’s needs. The visit exposed the hypocritical approach to the need of their people, states and the northern Nigeria as whole. The quality of leadership in the region has been questioned, with allegations of self serving  interest, ineptitude, and a lack of vision.

This is in spite of the fact that northern Nigeria as a whole faces numerous challenges that threaten its stability and development. Some of the key issues include insecurity, poverty, education, economic hardship, inequality and social and cultural challenges. The visit has been seen as an opportunity missed to engage with the state’s residents, listen to their concerns, and chart a way forward for development.

While the visit was marked by displays of pageantry and entertainment, the state’s pressing issues such as insecurity, poverty, and economic hardship, seemed to take a backseat.  Critics argue that the government’s focus on superficial events rather than addressing the root causes of the state’s challenges is a clear indication of a disconnect from the people’s needs.

The introduction of Rarara’s wife to the President by the Katsina State Governor, contravening cultural and religious norms, raise questions about leaders’ priorities and values.

Current leaders in the north seem more focused on personal interests and political survival than advocating for the northern Nigeria improvement.

Regardless of the challenges in the region the Governors  keep  praise for the President’s economic reforms, notwithstanding the region’s struggles, is concerning. economic reforms should lift people out of poverty, create jobs, and stimulate growth. If not yielding tangible benefits, they need reevaluation.

The north needs leaders prioritizing regional development and working towards a brighter future. Leaders understanding our region’s problems and committed to tackling them head-on are crucial. It’s time for a shift in approach, prioritizing people’s needs over personal interests.

As we move forward, we must demand more from our leaders. We need leaders who will stand up for the north and work tirelessly to find solutions. Anything less is a disservice to the region and its people.

We need leaders who cultivate a culture of good governance, prioritizing accountability and transparency to address insecurity and promote development.

The north needs a visionary leaders who prioritize all citizens’ needs, regardless of tribe or religion, are crucial for unity and stability.

Leaders who accelerate economic development, create jobs, and provide essential services like education and healthcare can reduce poverty and insecurity.

We require leaders who will combat corruption and promote social justice, reducing inequality and fostering stability.

In northern Nigeria, effective security reforms are necessary, including modernizing security agencies, enhancing intelligence gathering, and addressing insecurity’s root causes to ensure public safety.

To bridge the gap between the government and the people, there is a need for leaders who understand the intricacies of the state’s problems and are committed to tackling them head-on. By prioritizing the people’s needs and working towards sustainable development, the government can build trust and foster a sense of ownership among its citizens

May God guide Nigeria towards true development and prosperity.

Dukawa, a concerned Nigerian, can be reached at abbahydukawa@gmail.com

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