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SMEs: Warning Signs of Business Failure in COVID-19 Era

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Signs of Business Failure

By Timi Olubiyi, Ph.D.

The high failure rate of start-ups and SMEs in Nigeria, give a bleak picture of the sector’s potential to contribute significantly to job creation, economic growth and poverty reduction.

The big question is why do businesses fail so easily? This could be adjudged to the fact that most of the SMEs especially the micro-businesses are unstructured and operate informally in the country.

Nonetheless, when these businesses are in the failing path, the entrepreneur or SME operator is unaware of it happening, until it is often too late.

The survival of SMEs is even a bigger worry this time because of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) related negative impact, harsh business environment, insecurity among others.

With the pandemic, virtually every aspect of our lives is affected, with a significant adverse impact on trade, investment, business sustainability, and employment generation.

The primary objective of this article is to present the causes and predictors of the failure of these SMEs in the country.

In the context of this article, the term failure means any form of closure, either through bankruptcy, liquidation, prevention of further losses, abandon and re-starting another business, and/or due to personal choice (such as early retirement).

Small businesses in the context of this article is defined based on the number of employees in a business entity. Therefore, small and medium enterprises (SME) is a business employing 1 to 200 persons.

However, micro business is defined as entities employing 1 to 9 persons and small businesses employ 10 to 49 persons. In a similar vein, medium enterprises are businesses employing 50 to 199 persons. All businesses that employ from 200 persons and above are termed as big or large enterprises.

It is imperative to state that business failure is the last stage of an organization’s life cycle. The failure of SMEs or any business organization is an event which can produce substantial losses to creditors, stakeholders, and/or stockholder.

While there is multitude of conditions and reasons that can result into business failure, the key predictor of SMEs’ failure and death of businesses is the business environment.

Nigeria, like most African countries, lack basic infrastructure and action plan for businesses to thrive conveniently and the environment is a harsh one for businesses especially start-ups.

Even though small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have been proven to be a catalyst for economic development in countries all around the world, this is not entirely the situation in Africa, including Nigeria.

Sadly, the prevalence of business failure usually impacts negatively on national development and growth of any nation.

The prevalent business failure in Nigeria could be one of the major setbacks to economic growth and high unemployment rate in the country.

Records reveal that SMEs are the largest employers of labor globally and if this vital sector suffers failure predominant, then the level of unemployment in the country might not abate.

From observation around, especially in Lagos State, the economic nerve center, and SME hub of the country, only a fraction of new businesses survives for the first five years and only one-third of new businesses can survive for 10 years.

According to Bloomberg, 8 out of 10 entrepreneurs who start businesses fail within the first 18 months, which is a whopping 80 percent business failure rate.

In addition, it is estimated that the failure rate of SMEs in Nigeria is as many as 80 percent within the five years of operation, according to findings of Stanbic IBTC.

Experts also corroborate these assertions, saying about 80 percent of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Nigeria fail within the first five years of their existence due to lack of experience and other wrong business practices.

The anticipated catalyst to this high rate of business failure in Nigeria is the COVID-19 pandemic with the current realities.

We are likely to witness an extremely high post-pandemic business shut down, job loss, and a persistent decrease in outputs and revenue expectations of SMEs in Nigeria.

However, government can do more by rolling out measures to support this SMEs especially through the COVID-19 disruptions.

With government intervention, high number of business failures can be forestalled because the pandemic is already impacting negatively on distribution and supply chain of businesses.

Nonetheless, even though the environment is a critical factor in the ease of doing business, a harsh and difficult one exists in this country with or without COVID-19.

Government action plan and focus is imperative to develop this sector which is widely accepted as economic growth driver.

Recently, a survey conducted on small business in Lagos State indicated that the failure predictors is in two broad categories, namely internal or managerially controllable causes and external or non-controllable causes.

The internal factors the participants of the survey cited are (1) Financial resources like funding inadequacy, lack of profit, poor accounting practice, cash flow inadequacies, lack of viable investment opportunities, and low or no source of income. (2) Physical resources like the company location, abysmal culture, old equipment, and technology issues. (3) Human resources like managerial inadequacy, poor staffing, poor morale and customer dissatisfaction.

Other factors depend on business leaders’ decisions.

Example of this includes no management structure, no differentiation of ownership and management, no succession plan, unprofitable business model, lack of uniqueness, poor knowledge of the operating sector and its value chain, value dysfunctional, even rapid growth and over-expansion was cited, and not in touch with customer needs, etc.

These factors can easily be forecasted with some level of reliability, and therefore, a company has a good chance of reducing this form of business risk.

The company leadership usually have control over internal factors, what is required is just adequate managerial skills and continuous education to set things right.

However, findings indicated that this important feature is usually missing in the SME operators and business leaders.

The external or non-controllable causes of small business failure as perceived by a sample of small business owners and managers surveyed are as follows: government policies, natural factors infrastructure failures and deficits, stiff competition, rising costs of doing business, social, legal and political changes, even common macroeconomic factors such as business cycles, recessions, insecurity, government debt, inflation, high taxation, exchange rates, high-interest rates, excessive regulations, and/or a lack of interest from the public in the business’s offerings are just a few.

The power (electricity) situation in Nigeria has been a great cause for concern for businesses, investors, and citizens at large and is equally significant in the overall performance of the economy.

These infrastructure gaps and weak macroeconomic factors can be blamed on the depressed economy and prevalent business failure in Nigeria.

Because a depressing economy will impact negatively on firm’s sales, which in turn negatively affect firm’s business continuity.

It is imperative to state that these macroeconomic factors and external causes cannot be controlled or forecasted by entrepreneurs and SME operators.

Consequently, it poses a big risk to businesses unless government intervene decisively and give the needed policy responses. This is the big prayer of all SMEs and entrepreneurs in the country.

The warning signs of failure of SMEs are either one or the multiplicity of internal and external factors mentioned above.

SMEs can also fail if the business lack a contingency plan to react and mitigate any of the challenges in the event of any crisis.

The best way to manage and mitigate business failure due to these factors is to maintain an adequate level of capital.

A company with adequate financial resources can more effectively weather some level of business risk. Even at that, it is important to state that the prevalence of business failure is a vital indicator of the state of economy in any country.

Conclusively, despite the high rate of business failure much is still desired, if 80 percent of new businesses fail, according to Bloomberg, then 20 percent of new businesses can succeed and this percentage can also scale up. But how? Whether you desire to start a new business or you are already running a business, you must understand that success depends on careful strategic planning and sound fiscal management.

SME operators need to critically identify the actual business growth drivers and leverage strongly on them for sustainable business study.

With the COVID-19 pandemic forcing most SME operators to work remotely or even stay at home, this new normal could affect service quality and also cause severe business disruption.

Therefore, entrepreneurs need to understand the current competitive marketspace, customers’ needs and their current buying habits.

For SME operators to stem the tide of the current realities, effective communication with employees and customers is necessary to thrive, this can be achieved with effective use of technology and mobile telephony.

Furthermore, strategy to mitigate the predictors of business failure along with adequate business process review needs to be in place to cope with the operational stress generated by COVID-19.

Additionally, it is key to leverage on technological innovation and adopt a workable risk management strategy. When this strategy is in place, companies can anticipate the risks and respond appropriately to guarantee business sustainability. Good luck!

How may you obtain advice or further information on the article? 

Dr. Timi Olubiyi holds a Ph.D. in Entrepreneurship and Small Business Management. He is a prolific investment coach, Chartered Member of the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI) and a financial literacy specialist. He can be reached on the twitter handle @drtimiolubiyi and via email: dr***********@***il.com,for any questions, reactions, and comments.

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How Data Deconstructs the Myth of the ‘High-Risk’ Nigerian Borrower

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Winston Osuchukwu Mathesis Analytics

By Winston Osuchukwu

The average Nigerian borrower is widely considered high-risk – a claim repeated in credit committees, priced into retail loans, and largely treated as settled fact. Every credit market accepts that an individual loan may not be repaid; this is ordinary, priced risk. The high-risk claim, however, is applied to whole segments – the informal trader, the gig economy earner whose income is steady but split across several accounts, the remote worker paid by an overseas client into a fintech FX wallet. What the assessment establishes is not whether they are likely to repay, but how they fit into an arbitrary segment. Having spent years building decisioning systems for this market, my thesis is a specific one: “high-risk” does not mean “no credit” – it simply requires that the lender embrace alternative datasets to price the risk appropriately.

This is not a criticism of the institutions that built their frameworks around collateral and documentation; those were rational responses to the tools available at the time. When data is scarce, prudence means defaulting to the status quo. The limitation is not that this approach is wrong, but that it leaves a blind spot – excluding fundamentally sound borrowers whose economic lives simply are not captured on the bank’s ledger. A market trader who has moved consistent, growing volumes of cash through mobile money for three years is not, in any meaningful sense, unknowable. Their financial behaviour is observable and patterned; it simply occurs outside the traditional banking system, rendering it invisible to conventional underwriting.

This is the gap technology is now positioned to close – not by replacing institutional judgment, but by augmenting it. When AI-driven analysis is applied rigorously to the financial behaviour these borrowers generate, a far more complete picture of their repayment ability emerges – and a meaningful share presents a risk profile that compares favourably with segments the traditional system has long considered safe. The “high-risk” label, applied broadly to an entire category of borrower, was never a risk pricing tool so much as the limit of what the available tools could see.

For banks, this is the opportunity to extend capital with confidence beyond the borrowers who fit their stringent criteria. Nigerian banks are highly liquid; the constraint on credit growth has rarely been capital, but the ability to assess and price the borrowers who sit outside the traditional file. Close that gap, and the whole ecosystem strengthens: banks grow their loan books into segments they have long wanted to serve, and the real economy gets the capital it needs to expand.

This is precisely what we focus on at Mathesis Analytics: building AI-powered credit decisioning that gives lenders a fuller, more defensible picture of the individuals long excluded as high-risk when they were simply misjudged. The Nigerian credit gap has never been a non-lendable population problem, but one of incomplete visibility. By unifying varied data sources and partnering with the institutions that hold the capital and scale to move the market, we translate out-of-ecosystem behaviour into reliable, bank-grade risk scores. Closing this gap is one of the clearest, highest-leverage opportunities in Nigerian financial services today.

Winston Osuchukwu is the founder & CEO of Mathesis Analytics

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Second Home, Second Mother: Life Inside an Early Years Classroom

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Ohore Emmanuel Ufuoma

By Ohore Emmanuel Ufuoma

The Early Years classrooms have effectively become surrogate homes where educators now tie shoelaces, calm separation anxiety, supervise naps, enforce discipline, and provide comfort after minor injuries, which ought to be duties that should be performed by parents.

The extended work hours from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. for six days a week, economic realities, and the proliferation of all-day, weekend-inclusive early learning programs have repositioned schools as the primary environment for early childhood development.

For a typical four-year-old, 9.5 hours in school account for about 75% of waking weekday time. With Saturday sessions added, the home is reduced to a space for meals, sleep, and brief routines.

The mandate of Early Years teachers has expanded far beyond academics. Current practice requires them to handle physical care, emotional regulation, and behavioural guidance concurrently.

Daily responsibilities include toileting assistance, feeding, conflict mediation, fatigue monitoring, and maintaining individual routines for 15–20 pupils.

The parent-child dynamic shifts when parents deliberately delegate care of the child, and even punishment, to educators. While parents set apart evenings and weekends for practical tasks, like food, homework, and bathing.

Psychologists term it “contact without connection.” Although parents are physically present, time is divided and focused on tasks.

Children are more obedient and organised in class than they are at home, according to teachers. Parents describe the contrary. The pattern shows an expected result: the parent becomes the outlet for exhaustion, while the educator becomes the authority figure.

The labour market triggered the transfer of responsibilities between parents and educators.

Dual-income households are now the norm in major cities, and flexible work remains limited outside tech and finance.

Child caregiver costs compound the issue. Full-time caregiver care often costs almost half of a salary. Parents opt for schools with extended hours in order to kill two birds with one stone.

For educational centres, extended-day programs create parent-like responsibilities, and staffing, training, and compensation should reflect that. In leading centres, professional development in attachment theory and stress management is becoming standard.

For parents, the emphasis should be on quality rather than quantity.

Policymakers are beginning to prioritise employment rules that permit parental presence during early childhood and accessible, flexible daycare. Strong early attachment is associated with higher scholastic success and fewer behavioural problems in later life.

The Early Years teacher and the parents have not replaced each other. Both parties are only responding to a system that demands more hours in the workplace with fewer hours at home.

There has been a paradigm shift in the upbringing of children. The teachers now perform functions once meant for the family unit.

Intentional parenting inside the small windows has been left in the hands of caregivers.

Instead of the classroom remaining a place of learning, it has become the only home children know.

Ohore Emmanuel Ufuoma is an MBA student at Tokat Gaziosmanpaşa University, Turkey

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Preparing Bank Security Operations for Scale, Change, and Long-Term Resilience

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bank security operations Quintin Roberts

By Quintin Roberts

When banks and financial institutions upgrade their physical security systems, they are making decisions that will affect operations for years. Branch formats are changing, cyber risks are increasing, and security teams are being asked to support more sites, more data, and more business functions. The challenge is keeping pace with change in a way that holds up over time.

A modern physical security strategy needs to go beyond protection. It needs to give teams a clearer view across branches, support consistent governance, and provide the flexibility to adapt as technology and operational needs change. The following considerations focus on foundational choices that help banks build security operations that are resilient and can grow with the business.

Choose open architecture to preserve long-term flexibility

Banks and financial institutions often manage a mix of legacy systems, newer technologies, and location-specific requirements. A proprietary system can limit scalability, options for devices, and which systems can connect across the organisation. Over time, this can increase costs and make it harder to modernise without replacing infrastructure that still has value.

Open architecture gives decision-makers more choice and preserves flexibility. It allows financial institutions to select the cameras, access control devices, sensors, analytics, and other technologies that best fit each location and adapt them as their needs change.

This allows teams to modernise in phases. For example, an institution may standardise video management across many sites while keeping existing cameras in place, then replace hardware over time.

Decide how to deploy your security system

Some banks want to keep core systems on-premises at major sites. Others prefer cloud-managed services for smaller branches, remote locations, or new sites that need faster deployment and less local infrastructure. Many need a mix of both. Deployment flexibility gives them the freedom to choose where systems run, how data is stored, and how services are managed.

This is especially important for institutions with different regulatory requirements, bandwidth limitations, and internal IT policies. A flexible deployment model helps banks modernise at their own pace while maintaining control over performance, cybersecurity, compliance, and cost.

Unify operations to improve visibility across branches

Managing video surveillance, access control, intrusion, and other systems separately slows down response time and makes investigations harder. Operators may need to sign into different applications, search through data in different ways, and manually piece together what happened. Across hundreds of branches, these inefficiencies can add up quickly.

A unified security platform gives teams one operating picture across systems and sites. A local team can respond faster to an incident at a single location, while a central security operations centre can monitor trends, support remote sites, and apply consistent procedures across the network.

A unified system that creates a shared context makes incorporating analytics or AI-driven capabilities more effective, further accelerating searches, identifying patterns, and reducing overall investigation time.

Put cybersecurity and governance at the forefront

Physical security systems are connected to the broader IT environment. Devices all need to be managed as part of the bank’s cyber risk profile. If systems are outdated or inconsistently configured across branches, they can create unnecessary exposure and make long-term management harder. When cybersecurity and governance are a foundational part of the system, encryption, authentication, user permissions, system updates, audit trails, retention policies, and privacy controls are applied consistently across locations.

A centralised approach makes this consistency sustainable. It provides accountability for banks, helping teams keep track of who accessed which systems, who changed permissions, how long video is retained, and how evidence is shared. This is important for meeting regulatory expectations and adapting security operations over time. Further, consistent policies make organisational risk management more effective by standardising how risk is handled across the organisation, adding to future resilience.

Automate workflows for better risk mitigation and investigations

Investigations often involve information from several systems and locations. A suspicious ATM transaction may need to be matched with video, or an access event may need to be reviewed alongside intrusion activity. If that information sits in separate systems, investigations take longer and are harder to document.

Unified systems connect the relevant context across video, access control, license plate recognition, and other systems. This supports faster investigations and helps teams share evidence internally or with law enforcement while maintaining the chain of custody.

Improve business operations using physical security data

Physical security systems collect valuable operational data every day, from occupancy levels to device health. A unified platform can turn this data into useful insights, helping security teams identify recurring issues and improve resource planning. Other departments can use the same information to improve customer experience, branch operations, and facility management.

For example, occupancy and queue data help banks understand when branches are busiest. Device health monitoring enables teams to identify maintenance needs before systems fail. And with centralised reporting, leadership can see patterns across the full branch network rather than relying on isolated site-level reports.

Making the right choices for the long term

As banks modernise their physical security infrastructure, long-term resilience will depend on foundational choices. Strategies based on open architecture, deployment flexibility, unification, cybersecurity, governance, and data all help financial institutions build systems that can adapt well into the future.

Quintin Roberts is the Regional Sales Manager for Genetec Africa

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