Feature/OPED
SMEs: Warning Signs of Business Failure in COVID-19 Era
By Timi Olubiyi, Ph.D.
The high failure rate of start-ups and SMEs in Nigeria, give a bleak picture of the sector’s potential to contribute significantly to job creation, economic growth and poverty reduction.
The big question is why do businesses fail so easily? This could be adjudged to the fact that most of the SMEs especially the micro-businesses are unstructured and operate informally in the country.
Nonetheless, when these businesses are in the failing path, the entrepreneur or SME operator is unaware of it happening, until it is often too late.
The survival of SMEs is even a bigger worry this time because of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) related negative impact, harsh business environment, insecurity among others.
With the pandemic, virtually every aspect of our lives is affected, with a significant adverse impact on trade, investment, business sustainability, and employment generation.
The primary objective of this article is to present the causes and predictors of the failure of these SMEs in the country.
In the context of this article, the term failure means any form of closure, either through bankruptcy, liquidation, prevention of further losses, abandon and re-starting another business, and/or due to personal choice (such as early retirement).
Small businesses in the context of this article is defined based on the number of employees in a business entity. Therefore, small and medium enterprises (SME) is a business employing 1 to 200 persons.
However, micro business is defined as entities employing 1 to 9 persons and small businesses employ 10 to 49 persons. In a similar vein, medium enterprises are businesses employing 50 to 199 persons. All businesses that employ from 200 persons and above are termed as big or large enterprises.
It is imperative to state that business failure is the last stage of an organization’s life cycle. The failure of SMEs or any business organization is an event which can produce substantial losses to creditors, stakeholders, and/or stockholder.
While there is multitude of conditions and reasons that can result into business failure, the key predictor of SMEs’ failure and death of businesses is the business environment.
Nigeria, like most African countries, lack basic infrastructure and action plan for businesses to thrive conveniently and the environment is a harsh one for businesses especially start-ups.
Even though small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have been proven to be a catalyst for economic development in countries all around the world, this is not entirely the situation in Africa, including Nigeria.
Sadly, the prevalence of business failure usually impacts negatively on national development and growth of any nation.
The prevalent business failure in Nigeria could be one of the major setbacks to economic growth and high unemployment rate in the country.
Records reveal that SMEs are the largest employers of labor globally and if this vital sector suffers failure predominant, then the level of unemployment in the country might not abate.
From observation around, especially in Lagos State, the economic nerve center, and SME hub of the country, only a fraction of new businesses survives for the first five years and only one-third of new businesses can survive for 10 years.
According to Bloomberg, 8 out of 10 entrepreneurs who start businesses fail within the first 18 months, which is a whopping 80 percent business failure rate.
In addition, it is estimated that the failure rate of SMEs in Nigeria is as many as 80 percent within the five years of operation, according to findings of Stanbic IBTC.
Experts also corroborate these assertions, saying about 80 percent of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Nigeria fail within the first five years of their existence due to lack of experience and other wrong business practices.
The anticipated catalyst to this high rate of business failure in Nigeria is the COVID-19 pandemic with the current realities.
We are likely to witness an extremely high post-pandemic business shut down, job loss, and a persistent decrease in outputs and revenue expectations of SMEs in Nigeria.
However, government can do more by rolling out measures to support this SMEs especially through the COVID-19 disruptions.
With government intervention, high number of business failures can be forestalled because the pandemic is already impacting negatively on distribution and supply chain of businesses.
Nonetheless, even though the environment is a critical factor in the ease of doing business, a harsh and difficult one exists in this country with or without COVID-19.
Government action plan and focus is imperative to develop this sector which is widely accepted as economic growth driver.
Recently, a survey conducted on small business in Lagos State indicated that the failure predictors is in two broad categories, namely internal or managerially controllable causes and external or non-controllable causes.
The internal factors the participants of the survey cited are (1) Financial resources like funding inadequacy, lack of profit, poor accounting practice, cash flow inadequacies, lack of viable investment opportunities, and low or no source of income. (2) Physical resources like the company location, abysmal culture, old equipment, and technology issues. (3) Human resources like managerial inadequacy, poor staffing, poor morale and customer dissatisfaction.
Other factors depend on business leaders’ decisions.
Example of this includes no management structure, no differentiation of ownership and management, no succession plan, unprofitable business model, lack of uniqueness, poor knowledge of the operating sector and its value chain, value dysfunctional, even rapid growth and over-expansion was cited, and not in touch with customer needs, etc.
These factors can easily be forecasted with some level of reliability, and therefore, a company has a good chance of reducing this form of business risk.
The company leadership usually have control over internal factors, what is required is just adequate managerial skills and continuous education to set things right.
However, findings indicated that this important feature is usually missing in the SME operators and business leaders.
The external or non-controllable causes of small business failure as perceived by a sample of small business owners and managers surveyed are as follows: government policies, natural factors infrastructure failures and deficits, stiff competition, rising costs of doing business, social, legal and political changes, even common macroeconomic factors such as business cycles, recessions, insecurity, government debt, inflation, high taxation, exchange rates, high-interest rates, excessive regulations, and/or a lack of interest from the public in the business’s offerings are just a few.
The power (electricity) situation in Nigeria has been a great cause for concern for businesses, investors, and citizens at large and is equally significant in the overall performance of the economy.
These infrastructure gaps and weak macroeconomic factors can be blamed on the depressed economy and prevalent business failure in Nigeria.
Because a depressing economy will impact negatively on firm’s sales, which in turn negatively affect firm’s business continuity.
It is imperative to state that these macroeconomic factors and external causes cannot be controlled or forecasted by entrepreneurs and SME operators.
Consequently, it poses a big risk to businesses unless government intervene decisively and give the needed policy responses. This is the big prayer of all SMEs and entrepreneurs in the country.
The warning signs of failure of SMEs are either one or the multiplicity of internal and external factors mentioned above.
SMEs can also fail if the business lack a contingency plan to react and mitigate any of the challenges in the event of any crisis.
The best way to manage and mitigate business failure due to these factors is to maintain an adequate level of capital.
A company with adequate financial resources can more effectively weather some level of business risk. Even at that, it is important to state that the prevalence of business failure is a vital indicator of the state of economy in any country.
Conclusively, despite the high rate of business failure much is still desired, if 80 percent of new businesses fail, according to Bloomberg, then 20 percent of new businesses can succeed and this percentage can also scale up. But how? Whether you desire to start a new business or you are already running a business, you must understand that success depends on careful strategic planning and sound fiscal management.
SME operators need to critically identify the actual business growth drivers and leverage strongly on them for sustainable business study.
With the COVID-19 pandemic forcing most SME operators to work remotely or even stay at home, this new normal could affect service quality and also cause severe business disruption.
Therefore, entrepreneurs need to understand the current competitive marketspace, customers’ needs and their current buying habits.
For SME operators to stem the tide of the current realities, effective communication with employees and customers is necessary to thrive, this can be achieved with effective use of technology and mobile telephony.
Furthermore, strategy to mitigate the predictors of business failure along with adequate business process review needs to be in place to cope with the operational stress generated by COVID-19.
Additionally, it is key to leverage on technological innovation and adopt a workable risk management strategy. When this strategy is in place, companies can anticipate the risks and respond appropriately to guarantee business sustainability. Good luck!
How may you obtain advice or further information on the article?
Dr. Timi Olubiyi holds a Ph.D. in Entrepreneurship and Small Business Management. He is a prolific investment coach, Chartered Member of the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI) and a financial literacy specialist. He can be reached on the twitter handle @drtimiolubiyi and via email: [email protected],for any questions, reactions, and comments.
Feature/OPED
The Future of Payments: Key Trends to Watch in 2025
By Luke Kyohere
The global payments landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation. New technologies coupled with the rising demand for seamless, secure, and efficient transactions has spurred on an exciting new era of innovation and growth. With 2025 fast approaching, here are important trends that will shape the future of payments:
1. The rise of real-time payments
Until recently, real-time payments have been used in Africa for cross-border mobile money payments, but less so for traditional payments. We are seeing companies like Mastercard investing in this area, as well as central banks in Africa putting focus on this.
2. Cashless payments will increase
In 2025, we will see the continued acceleration of cashless payments across Africa. B2B payments in particular will also increase. Digital payments began between individuals but are now becoming commonplace for larger corporate transactions.
3. Digital currency will hit mainstream
In the cryptocurrency space, we will see an increase in the use of stablecoins like United States Digital Currency (USDC) and Tether (USDT) which are linked to US dollars. These will come to replace traditional cryptocurrencies as their price point is more stable. This year, many countries will begin preparing for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), government-backed digital currencies which use blockchain.
The increased uptake of digital currencies reflects the maturity of distributed ledger technology and improved API availability.
4. Increased government oversight
As adoption of digital currencies will increase, governments will also put more focus into monitoring these flows. In particular, this will centre on companies and banks rather than individuals. The goal of this will be to control and occasionally curb runaway foreign exchange (FX) rates.
5. Business leaders buy into AI technology
In 2025, we will see many business leaders buying into AI through respected providers relying on well-researched platforms and huge data sets. Most companies don’t have the budget to invest in their own research and development in AI, so many are now opting to ‘buy’ into the technology rather than ‘build’ it themselves. Moreover, many businesses are concerned about the risks associated with data ownership and accuracy so buying software is another way to avoid this risk.
6. Continued AI Adoption in Payments
In payments, the proliferation of AI will continue to improve user experience and increase security. To detect fraud, AI is used to track patterns and payment flows in real-time. If unusual activity is detected, the technology can be used to flag or even block payments which may be fraudulent.
When it comes to user experience, we will also see AI being used to improve the interface design of payment platforms. The technology will also increasingly be used for translation for international payment platforms.
7. Rise of Super Apps
To get more from their platforms, mobile network operators are building comprehensive service platforms, integrating multiple payment experiences into a single app. This reflects the shift of many users moving from text-based services to mobile apps. Rather than offering a single service, super apps are packing many other services into a single app. For example, apps which may have previously been used primarily for lending, now have options for saving and paying bills.
8. Business strategy shift
Recent major technological changes will force business leaders to focus on much shorter prediction and reaction cycles. Because the rate of change has been unprecedented in the past year, this will force decision-makers to adapt quickly, be decisive and nimble.
As the payments space evolves, businesses, banks, and governments must continually embrace innovation, collaboration, and prioritise customer needs. These efforts build a more inclusive, secure, and efficient payment system that supports local to global economic growth – enabling true financial inclusion across borders.
Luke Kyohere is the Group Chief Product and Innovation Officer at Onafriq
Feature/OPED
Ghana’s Democratic Triumph: A Call to Action for Nigeria’s 2027 Elections
In a heartfelt statement released today, the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) has extended its warmest congratulations to Ghana’s President-Elect, emphasizing the importance of learning from Ghana’s recent electoral success as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections.
In a statement signed by its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Comrade James Ezema, the CNPP highlighted the need for Nigeria to reclaim its status as a leader in democratic governance in Africa.
“The recent victory of Ghana’s President-Elect is a testament to the maturity and resilience of Ghana’s democracy,” the CNPP stated. “As we celebrate this achievement, we must reflect on the lessons that Nigeria can learn from our West African neighbour.”
The CNPP’s message underscored the significance of free, fair, and credible elections, a standard that Ghana has set and one that Nigeria has previously achieved under former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. “It is high time for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a beacon of democracy in Africa,” the CNPP asserted, calling for a renewed commitment to the electoral process.
Central to CNPP’s message is the insistence that “the will of the people must be supreme in Nigeria’s electoral processes.” The umbrella body of all registered political parties and political associations in Nigeria CNPP emphasized the necessity of an electoral system that genuinely reflects the wishes of the Nigerian populace. “We must strive to create an environment where elections are free from manipulation, violence, and intimidation,” the CNPP urged, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to take decisive action to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.
The CNPP also expressed concern over premature declarations regarding the 2027 elections, stating, “It is disheartening to note that some individuals are already announcing that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. This kind of statement not only undermines the democratic principles that our nation holds dear but also distracts from the pressing need for the current administration to earn the trust of the electorate.”
The CNPP viewed the upcoming elections as a pivotal moment for Nigeria. “The 2027 general elections present a unique opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a leader in democratic governance in Africa,” it remarked. The body called on all stakeholders — including the executive, legislature, judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society organisations — to collaborate in ensuring that elections are transparent, credible, and reflective of the will of the Nigerian people.
As the most populous African country prepares for the 2027 elections, the CNPP urged all Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to democratic principles. “We must work together to ensure that our elections are free from violence, intimidation, and manipulation,” the statement stated, reaffirming the CNPP’s commitment to promoting a peaceful and credible electoral process.
In conclusion, the CNPP congratulated the President-Elect of Ghana and the Ghanaian people on their remarkable achievements.
“We look forward to learning from their experience and working together to strengthen democracy in our region,” the CNPP concluded.
Feature/OPED
The Need to Promote Equality, Equity and Fairness in Nigeria’s Proposed Tax Reforms
By Kenechukwu Aguolu
The proposed tax reform, involving four tax bills introduced by the Federal Government, has received significant criticism. Notably, it was rejected by the Governors’ Forum but was still forwarded to the National Assembly. Unlike the various bold economic decisions made by this government, concessions will likely need to be made on these tax reforms, which involve legislative amendments and therefore cannot be imposed by the executive. This article highlights the purposes of taxation, the qualities of a good tax system, and some of the implications of the proposed tax reforms.
One of the major purposes of taxation is to generate revenue for the government to finance its activities. A good tax system should raise sufficient revenue for the government to fund its operations, and support economic and infrastructural development. For any country to achieve meaningful progress, its tax-to-GDP ratio should be at least 15%. Currently, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 11%. The proposed tax reforms aim to increase this ratio to 18% within the next three years.
A good tax system should also promote income redistribution and equality by implementing progressive tax policies. In line with this, the proposed tax reforms favour low-income earners. For example, individuals earning less than one million naira annually are exempted from personal income tax. Additionally, essential goods and services such as food, accommodation, and transportation, which constitute a significant portion of household consumption for low- and middle-income groups, are to be exempted from VAT.
In addition to equality, a good tax system should ensure equity and fairness, a key area of contention surrounding the proposed reforms. If implemented, the amendments to the Value Added Tax could lead to a significant reduction in the federal allocation for some states; impairing their ability to finance government operations and development projects. The VAT amendments should be holistically revisited to promote fairness and national unity.
The establishment of a single agency to collect government taxes, the Nigeria Revenue Service, could reduce loopholes that have previously resulted in revenue losses, provided proper controls are put in place. It is logically easier to monitor revenue collection by one agency than by multiple agencies. However, this is not a magical solution. With automation, revenue collection can be seamless whether it is managed by one agency or several, as long as monitoring and accountability measures are implemented effectively.
The proposed tax reforms by the Federal Government are well-intentioned. However, all concerns raised by Nigerians should be looked into, and concessions should be made where necessary. Policies are more effective when they are adapted to suit the unique characteristics of a nation, rather than adopted wholesale. A good tax system should aim to raise sufficient revenue, ensure equitable income distribution, and promote equality, equity, and fairness.
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