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Subsidy Removal: Poor Approach Worsening Shocks in Nigeria, a Comparative Study of Nigeria and India

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Peace Otohuni Subsidy Removal

By Peace Otonihu

The removal of fuel subsidies has been a recurring policy issue for many countries, including Nigeria and India. While both nations face similar challenges in the petroleum sector, their approaches to fuel subsidy reforms differ significantly. 

In a newsletter published by Outlook Planet and updated in November 2024, India has since 2010 had a “fossil fuel subsidy policy” which has undergone several reforms since then. However, in Nigeria, the subsidy was removed through the president’s inaugural speech where he announced that “Subsidy is Gone!”. 

This announcement since May 2023 has led to a surge in the price of petrol nationwide, an increase in the cost of goods and services as well as other ripple effects on the economy being a resource-dependent economy, without clear policy frameworks to mitigate the impact. In contrast, India’s gradual and research-driven approach to subsidy removal offers lessons in strategic planning and implementation that can be beneficial to consider. 

The Background of Fuel Subsidies in Nigeria

A simplified definition of fuel subsidy is the portion of the total fuel price paid for by the government on behalf of its citizens. According to Zinami (2024), Fuel subsidies in Nigeria date back to the 1970s when they were introduced to reduce the burden of fuel costs on citizens. 

They became institutionalized in 1977 under the Price Control Act promulgated by the military regime of Olusegun Obasanjo, which regulated prices of essential items, including fuel. Over the decades, subsidies grew to cover a significant portion of government expenditures. 

By 2013, Nigeria was listed among the top 20 countries subsidizing fuel consumption, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) as cited in (Soile & MU, 2015). Despite being one of Africa’s leading oil producers, Nigeria’s inability to maintain functional refineries forced it to rely heavily on imported refined petroleum products. This paradox has made subsidies unsustainable, leading to mounting fiscal pressures and limited development benefits.

In May 2023, President Bola Tinubu’s inaugural speech led to the abrupt removal of fuel subsidy triggered an immediate spike in petrol prices and a ripple effect on goods and services, reflecting Nigeria’s heavy reliance on petroleum for economic activity. A public announcement during an inaugural speech alone does not constitute a comprehensive fuel subsidy reform. India has faced challenges in the petroleum sector similar to those in Nigeria. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) 2022, India was the world’s third-largest energy consumer, following China and the United States, as of 2021. 

The increasing demand for petroleum products, driven by economic growth, has been compounded by limited domestic production capacity, necessitating fuel imports. Like Nigeria, India has historically seen substantial government involvement in its petroleum sector.

In Nigeria, the most notable reform following the removal of the fuel subsidy is the reallocation of funds previously used for subsidies to sectors such as public infrastructure, education, healthcare, and job creation—areas intended to improve the lives of millions. 

It is interesting to note that prior to President Tinubu’s inauguration, the Nigerian government spent approximately ₦400 billion (around $500 million) per month on subsidizing petroleum imports, as noted by Mele Kyari, the CEO of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), which is authorized to operate in Nigeria’s oil sector. 

While redirecting these funds could theoretically represent a significant reform, its effectiveness remains uncertain if the impacts are not clear, and neither do they directly improve the standard of living or the cost of living of Nigerians who have to bear the brunt of subsidy removal. 

For example, the 2024 budget allocated ₦1.54 trillion to the education sector, representing only 6.39% of the total budget. There was no notable increase in the education budget when compared with previous years which shows the rechannelling of fuel subsidy funds. This limited visible improvement suggests a lack of proper planning and insufficient research into the specific needs of Nigerians.

However, unlike Nigeria, India’s fuel subsidy reforms were guided by a thorough assessment of cost-benefit analyses and economic impacts, resulting in more effective outcomes for its economy. In India, fuel subsidy reforms were shaped by the work of government-appointed committees conducting extensive research and analysis. 

Through these reform initiatives, India significantly reduced its fuel subsidy burden from $24.6 billion in 2013 to just $1.16 billion in 2017—a remarkable 95.28% decrease. This was achieved by deregulating the prices of LPG, DPK, and AGO, illustrating the importance of systematic and research-driven reform strategies.

India’s Fuel Subsidy Reforms: A Gradual and Comprehensive Approach

India has pursued fuel subsidy reforms through a gradual, well-planned, and research-driven process since 2010. Ranking as the third-largest energy consumer in the world after China and the United States, India faced challenges like Nigeria, such as growing demand for petroleum products, heavy government involvement in the energy sector, and limited domestic production capacity necessitating fuel imports.

To address these challenges, India formed multiple expert committees to guide subsidy reform policies:

  1. Rangarajan Committee Report (2006) – Recommended the use of global market prices to determine the market price for petrol and diesel in the country while limiting subsidized kerosene to families below-poverty-line (“BPL”) and increasing retail prices for LPG.  
  2. Parikh Committee Report (2010): Advocated for complete liberalization of petrol and diesel prices at both the refinery and retail levels, targeting subsidized public distribution system (“PDS”) kerosene for households below-poverty-line with annual price increases tied to agricultural Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) growth, kerosene sold outside the subsidized public distribution system was set close to the price of diesel, annual quantity limit of six 14.2 kg cylinders on subsidized LPG for each household, and using direct cash transfers or quantity rationing for subsidized LPG.  
  3. Nilekani Task Force Interim Report (2011) – Recommended replacing in-kind fuel and fertilizer subsidies with direct cash transfers using the Unique identification (“UID”) system to reduce fiscal costs by eliminating duplication and ghost beneficiaries.  
  4. Kelkar Committee Report (2012) – Outlined a fiscal consolidation plan involving phased elimination of diesel subsidies over two years, full deregulation by 2014, gradual removal of LPG subsidies over three years, and a one-third reduction in politically sensitive kerosene subsidies within the same timeframe.

These reforms significantly reduced India’s fuel subsidy burden from $24.6 billion in 2013 to just $1.16 billion by 2017—a decrease of over 95%. This achievement was facilitated by deregulating LPG, kerosene, and automotive gas oil prices, adopting direct cash transfers, and targeting subsidies only to vulnerable populations.

Key Lessons for Nigeria from India’s Reforms

India’s approach underscores several key elements that Nigeria could adopt to make subsidy reforms more effective:

  1. Research-Based Policy Formulation: India’s reforms were guided by thorough research and committee recommendations. By contrast, Nigeria’s abrupt announcement lacked a well-defined policy framework, creating economic shockwaves without providing adequate support mechanisms for affected populations.
  2. Targeted Support Measures: India implemented targeted subsidies for vulnerable populations and used direct cash transfers to eliminate waste and duplication. In Nigeria, the promise to redirect subsidy savings toward social sectors like education and healthcare has not translated into visible improvements, hence, there is need for better-targeted and transparent support mechanisms.
  3. Gradual Phasing-Out: The gradual removal of subsidies in India allowed time for the economy to adjust. Nigeria’s sudden subsidy removal led to a surge in fuel prices and widespread economic distress. A phased approach, with well-planned timelines and support measures, could have mitigated the shock.
  4. Public Consultation and Transparency: India’s reforms involved extensive consultations with stakeholders, enhancing public understanding and acceptance. Nigeria’s unilateral decision-making process limited public buy-in, leading to widespread dissatisfaction.
The Way Forward for Nigeria

For Nigeria, merely redirecting funds from subsidies to infrastructure, education, and healthcare is insufficient if the impact is not measurable or transformative. Effective reform requires clear policies, transparency, and targeted initiatives to ensure that savings translate into tangible benefits. Learning from India, Nigeria should focus on:

  • Enhanced transparency and accountability to track and measure the impact of redirected funds.
  • Support mechanisms such as direct cash transfers or targeted subsidies to shield vulnerable populations.
  • Comprehensive planning and phased implementation to minimize economic shocks.
  • Stakeholder consultations to build public support and ensure policy acceptance.
Conclusion

India’s experience with fuel subsidy reforms demonstrates that effective policy changes require a structured approach involving research, planning, public consultation, and targeted social programs. While Nigeria’s recent subsidy removal represents a necessary step toward fiscal stability, the lack of a comprehensive policy framework undermines its potential benefits. In contrast, India’s reforms led to measurable improvements that directly impacted the country’s economy. Through extensive consultation, policy formulation, and research, the Indian government increased access to clean cooking solutions for the rural poor through subsidized LPG. Additionally, direct cash transfers to low-income households helped mitigate the negative effects of subsidy removal, while deregulation allowed oil companies to operate more freely, boosting revenue generation.

This contrast between India’s carefully planned, research-driven reforms and Nigeria’s fewer tangible outcomes highlights the importance of adopting a more structured approach in Nigeria. By doing so, Nigeria can achieve meaningful reforms that balance fiscal responsibility with social equity, ultimately leading to sustainable development and improved well-being for its citizens.

Peace Otonihu is a seasoned investment banking analyst at a top-tier investment bank in Africa. Her expertise lies in policy analysis,  financial advisory,  project and development finance, focusing on critical sectors such as oil and gas, energy, mining, transportation, and infrastructure. She is a political scientist, policy analyst, and researcher having co-authoured a research publication in a reputable journal while also exploring medium.

She is a certified chartered accountant from the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN), with keen interest in public policy analysis, public-private partnerships, financial advisory and developing infrastructure projects. She was also a Pioneer student of the School of Politics, Policy and Governance, an unconventional school of politics designed to produce a new generation of political leaders.

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When Expertise Meets Politics: The Rejection of Professor Datonye Dennis by Lawmakers

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Professor Datonye Dennis Alasia

By Meinyie Okpukpo

In a development that has generated debate within both political and medical circles in Rivers State, the Rivers State House of Assembly recently declined to confirm Professor Datonye Dennis Alasia as a commissioner-nominee submitted by the state governor, Siminalayi Fubara.

The decision followed a tense screening session in Port Harcourt and has raised broader questions about the intersection of politics, governance, and the role of technocrats in public administration.

For many in Nigeria’s medical community, Professor Alasia is not simply a nominee rejected by lawmakers. He is a respected physician, academic, and nephrology specialist whose decades-long career has contributed significantly to medical practice and training in the Niger Delta and across Nigeria.

The Political Drama Behind the Rejection

Professor Alasia was among nine commissioner nominees submitted by Governor Fubara to the Rivers Assembly as part of efforts to reconstitute the State Executive Council following the dissolution of the cabinet earlier in 2026. After deliberations, the Assembly confirmed five nominees but rejected four, including Professor Alasia.

During the screening exercise, lawmakers raised concerns about discrepancies in Alasia’s birth certificate as well as the absence of a tax clearance certificate among the documents he submitted to the Assembly. Although the professor offered explanations and apologised for the missing tax document, a motion was moved on the floor of the House recommending that he should not be confirmed. The Assembly subsequently voted against his nomination. Some lawmakers also cited what they described as “poor performance” during the screening exercise as part of the reasons for their decision. The outcome has since become one of the most talked-about developments from the commissioner screening exercise, largely because of Alasia’s distinguished professional background.

Who Is Professor Datonye Dennis Alasia?

Professor Alasia is widely known in Nigeria’s healthcare sector as a consultant nephrologist and Professor of Medicine with long-standing service at the University of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital (UPTH). At UPTH, he served as Chairman of the Medical Advisory Committee (CMAC), a key leadership position responsible for overseeing clinical governance, medical standards, and patient-care policies in one of Nigeria’s foremost teaching hospitals.

He also previously held the role of Deputy Chief Medical Director, contributing significantly to hospital administration and the implementation of medical policies within the institution.

In addition to his clinical responsibilities, Professor Alasia has been deeply involved in academic medicine, combining medical practice with teaching and research in the university system.

Advancing Nephrology Care in Nigeria

Professor Alasia specialises in nephrology, the branch of medicine that deals with kidney diseases. This area of medicine is particularly important in Nigeria, where hypertension and diabetes have contributed to a growing number of kidney failure cases.

Through his work as a consultant nephrologist, he has been involved in:
Diagnosis and treatment of kidney diseases
Management of chronic kidney failure
Development of nephrology services in tertiary hospitals
Training doctors in renal medicine
His contributions have helped expand specialised kidney care within the Niger Delta region.
Training the Next Generation of Doctors
Beyond clinical practice, Professor Alasia has also played an important role in medical education.

Teaching hospitals like UPTH serve as the backbone of Nigeria’s medical training system. Within this system, professors supervise:
Residency training programmes
Specialist physician development
Medical student education
Clinical research mentorship
Through these responsibilities, Professor Alasia has helped mentor and train numerous doctors who now practice across Nigeria and beyond.
Leadership in Hospital Administration
Professor Alasia’s role as Chairman of the Medical Advisory Committee at UPTH placed him at the centre of hospital governance.
The position involves responsibilities such as:
Oversight of clinical governance
Enforcement of patient-care standards
Coordination of medical departments
Implementation of healthcare policies

The CMAC position is widely regarded as one of the most influential clinical leadership roles in Nigerian teaching hospitals.

Politics Versus Professional Expertise

The rejection of Professor Alasia highlights a broader issue often seen in Nigerian governance—the tension between professional expertise and political scrutiny. On one hand, the Assembly maintains that its decision reflects its constitutional duty to thoroughly vet nominees and ensure that those appointed to public office meet all necessary requirements. On the other hand, some observers argue that professionals with long careers outside politics may sometimes struggle to navigate political screening processes that are often designed with career politicians in mind.

What Happens Next?

With four nominees rejected during the screening exercise, Governor Fubara may be required to submit new names to the Assembly in order to complete the composition of the State Executive Council.
For Professor Alasia, however, the Assembly’s decision does not diminish a career built over decades in medicine, medical education, and hospital administration.

Conclusion

Professor Datonye Dennis Alasia represents a class of Nigerian professionals whose influence lies primarily outside the political arena. As a professor of medicine, consultant nephrologist, and hospital administrator, his contributions to medical training and kidney disease management remain significant.

Yet his experience before the Rivers State Assembly reflects a recurring reality in Nigerian public life: even the most accomplished technocrats must still navigate the complex and often unforgiving terrain of politics.

Meinyie Okpukpo, a socio-political commentator and analyst, writes from Port Harcourt, Rivers State

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Compliance is the New Currency of Nigerian Banking

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James Edeh FairMoney

By James Edeh

In the traditional halls of Nigerian finance, capital was once defined solely by the strength of a balance sheet and the depth of physical vaults. However, as the industry transitions into a tech-enabled era, marked by a staggering 11.2 billion electronic transactions processed by NIBSS in 2024 alone, the definition of capital has undergone a fundamental shift.

In 2026, ‘Character’ seems to have emerged as the most vital form of liquidity. In a market where digital fraud and systemic volatility can erode trust overnight, a bank’s commitment to regulatory compliance is no longer a ‘back-office’ function; it is the primary bridge that builds and sustains customer confidence. This evolution is driven by a sophisticated web of regulations from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC), which have moved from reactive policing to proactive architecture. With the introduction of the Digital, Electronic, Online, or Non-traditional Consumer Lending Regulations 2025, the authorities have set a clear mandate: innovation must be tethered to integrity.

The current regulatory landscape is defined by milestones that signal a maturing ecosystem. Nigeria’s successful exit from the FATF ‘grey list’ in October 2025 served as a global validation of the country’s strengthened Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Counter-Terrorism Financing (CFT) frameworks.

The mandatory integration of the Bank Verification Number (BVN) and National Identification Number (NIN) has become the ‘digital DNA’ of banking. This has not only reduced identity fraud, which saw a significant decrease from ₦52.26 billion in 2024 to ₦25.85 billion in 2025, according to the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System NIBSS, but has also provided a secure pathway for 74% of the population to enter the formal financial system. Additionally, the CBN’s 2024–2026 recapitalisation drive, requiring minimum capital thresholds of up to ₦500 billion for international banks, ensures that ‘character’ is backed by the resilience to withstand economic shocks, effectively mandating that only the most robust and compliant players remain at the table.

As of January 2026, the Nigeria’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has also significantly increased the minimum capital requirements (MCR) for fintechs and digital asset operators, with compliance required by June 30, 2027. Key thresholds include ₦100 million for Robo-Advisers (up from ₦10m), ₦200 million for Crowdfunding Intermediaries (up from ₦100m), and ₦2 billion for Digital Asset Exchanges (DAX).

At FairMoney MFB, compliance is far more than a regulatory check box, it is the bedrock of our operational integrity and strategic growth. We have engineered a proactive compliance architecture that reaches every level of our organisation, ensuring that we remain with the highest industry standards. By embedding rigorous oversight, ethical governance, and transparent reporting into our core DNA, we have cultivated a foundation of trust that serves as a vital bridge between our organisation and key government stakeholders.

For forward-thinking institutions, compliance is being rebranded as a competitive advantage. In the digital space, where customers cannot visit a branch to demand answers, the ‘seal of approval’ from regulators acts as a proxy for safety.

This is where the concept of Character-as-Capital becomes most visible. By maintaining a strict adherence to responsible debt recovery practices and strictly adhering to the Nigeria Data Protection Act (NDPA), Institutions such as FairMoney MFB demonstrate how compliance-led models can support responsible digital lending. FairMoney’s adherence to the FCCPC’s Digital Lending Guidelines and its proactive stance on product transparency – clearly stating all interest rates and fees upfront – exemplifies how compliance can be used to build a ‘predictability model’ for the consumer. When a bank follows the rules even when it is more expensive to do so, it builds a reservoir of goodwill that serves as a moat against more aggressive, less ethical competitors.

The shift toward a compliance-first culture is yielding a tangible ‘Trust Dividend’. In late 2025, FairMoney’s national scale long-term issuer rating was upgraded from BBB(NG) to BBB+(NG) by Global Credit Rating (GCR), and its short-term rating from A3(NG) to A2(NG). Internal audited records show that in FY2025 FairMoney disbursed over ₦250 billion in loans and paid out over ₦7 billion in interest to savers, proving its ability to return value to a customer base that views the platform as a trusted platform for savings and credit services.

Between 2021 and 2024, FairMoney saw a significant growth in its customer deposit base. This growth has facilitated a reduced cost of funds; because users trust the bank’s CBN and NDIC-licensed status, FairMoney now funds over 56% of its loan book through customer deposits. Recent data from the Nigerian Exchange Limited and banking industry suggests that as compliance improves, so does the velocity of money. Total deposits in the Nigerian banking sector rose by 63% to ₦136 trillion by late 2024, a growth driven by a population that finally feels the digital financial infrastructure is safe enough to hold their life savings.

In the coming years, the winners in the Nigerian banking sector will not be those with the largest marketing budgets, but those with the strongest ethical spine. Compliance is the bridge that connects a sceptical populace to the digital economy. It is the assurance that a customer’s data is private, their deposits are insured, and their treatment is fair. As we look toward 2030, Nigeria’s economic expansion will only be reachable if the banking sector continues to treat Character as its New Capital.

By embracing the rigorous demands of current regulations, financial institutions are not just following the law; they are investing in the most valuable asset any bank can own: the unshakeable confidence of its people. The road ahead requires a commitment to transparency that transcends the app interface and penetrates the core of institutional culture.

James Edeh is the Head of Compliance at FairMoney Microfinance Bank

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Piracy in Nigeria: Who Really Pays the Price?

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Ever noticed how easy it is to get a movie in Nigeria, sometimes before or right after it hits cinemas? For decades, films, music, and series have circulated in ways that felt almost natural; roadside DVDs, download sites, and streaming hacks became part of how we consumed entertainment. It became the default way people experienced content.

But what many don’t realise is that what feels normal for audiences has real consequences for the people behind the screen. As Nigeria’s creative industry grows into a serious economic force, piracy isn’t just a “shortcut” anymore; it’s a drain on the very lifeblood of creativity.

The conversation hit the headlines again with the alleged arrest of the CEO of NetNaija, a platform widely known for downloadable entertainment content. Beyond the courtrooms, the story reopened an important question: how did piracy become so normalised, and why should we care now?

Filmmaker Jade Osiberu put it into perspective in a post that resonated across social media: for many Nigerians, pirated CDs and downloads were simply the most accessible way to watch films. Piracy didn’t just appear from nowhere. It grew because legal options were limited, streaming platforms scarce, and affordability a challenge. In other words, piracy is as much a story about opportunity and access as it is about legality.

The cost of this convenience is real. Every illegally downloaded or shared film chips away at revenue that sustains the people who create it. Producers risk their own capital to tell stories, actors and crew rely on fair compensation, and distributors and cinemas lose income when pirated copies hit screens first. Over time, this doesn’t just hurt profits; it erodes confidence in investing in new projects and threatens the ecosystem that allows Nigerian creativity to flourish.

Piracy is also about culture and necessity. Many audiences never intended harm; they simply wanted stories in a system that didn’t always make legal access easy. Streaming services were limited or expensive, internet access was spotty, and distribution was weak outside major cities. Piracy became the default, and generations grew up seeing it as normal. But what was once a practical workaround has now become a barrier to sustainable growth.

This is where enforcement comes in. Legal action, like the NCC’s intervention against NetNaija, isn’t about pointing fingers at audiences; it’s a reminder that creative work has value and that infringement carries consequences. It’s about sending the message that the people who write, produce, act, and edit these stories deserve protection. Enforcement alone isn’t enough, though. Without accessible, affordable legal alternatives, audiences will naturally gravitate back to piracy.

The bigger picture is this: Nollywood is no longer just a local industry. It’s a global player, employing thousands, creating cultural influence, and generating revenue across multiple sectors. Its growth depends not just on talent, but on a system that rewards creators, protects their work, and builds a sustainable ecosystem.

Piracy may have been normalised in the past, but its consequences today are impossible to ignore. It threatens livelihoods, investment, and the future of stories that define Nigeria culturally and economically. Understanding its impact isn’t about shaming audiences or vilifying platforms; it’s about valuing the people behind the content, the stories themselves, and the industry’s potential.

The real question isn’t just whether piracy is illegal. It’s whether Nigeria is willing to build an entertainment ecosystem where creators thrive, stories get told properly, and audiences can enjoy them without undermining the very people who made them possible. Until that happens, the cost of convenience will keep being paid by someone else, and it’s the people who create the magic.

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