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The Way Forward out of Soaring Food Prices

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Food Prices Regulation

Ayo Oyoze Baje

This is certainly the worst of times for millions of Nigerians grappling with an increase in Value Added Tax (VAT), electricity tariff and the pump price for fuel.

What about the swirling insecurity incubus, via farmers-herders clashes, banditry and terrorism as well as delayed rainfall courtesy of climate change? That all these have unfolded in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic makes the sordid economic picture darker.

According to Reuters, inflation in Nigeria has hit a four-year peak of 17.33 per cent driven by the COVID pandemic, a drop in oil revenue and a weakened currency. Going by the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), food inflation climbed to 20.57 per cent year-on-year in January 2021, making it the highest in over 11 years.

Food prices, which make up the bulk of the inflation basket, rose 21.79 per cent in February, a jump of 1.22 percentage point in January, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) stated. Costs increased by 2 per cent in the month. What all these frightening figures tell us is that there is acute hunger in the land!

The serious worry, however, is that the light at the end of the dark tunnel of insecurity is still far away, according to experts on the economy.

For instance, Jacques Nel, head of macroeconomic research at NKC African Economics in South Africa insists that: “Straining households will be compounded by increasing reports of insecurity in some regions, fuelling the risk of broader social discontent.”

He added that just 30.6 million Nigerians in a population of around 210 million were considered fully employed.

Similarly, Bismarck Rewane, managing director at Lagos-based Financial Derivatives, said the “stagflation crisis” would take a long time to resolve, with inflation eating up economic gains to the point where any government stimulus might be too weak to generate jobs.

On his piece of advice to policymakers on the economy and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), he stated that: “They should be thinking of tightening to encourage savings and investment which could help employment but I think we may have reached the limit of [what can be achieved with changes to] monetary policy.”

So, what is the way forward, if not agriculture, that is renewable and generally less costly to venture into?

But then, such agricultural practices have to be driven by the availability of fertile land, modern technological practices, sustained human capital development features, as well as genuine interest from the public and the private sectors.

These could be done through guaranteed socio-economic security for the farmers and access to adequate funding through single-digit interest bank loans spread over a long period of time.

Also needed are the supply of steady electric power, potable water and technical support with tillers, harvesters and pesticides.

Others include the provision of early-maturing, disease-resistant hybrid seedlings with greater harvest potentials.

Even then the farmers require the input of agric extension workers with the requisite professional knowledge. In fact, they could assist them to form cooperatives.

One other significant factor that could facilitate success in the agric sector is proper planning that would be predicated on a creditable database. Such data could be on the number of registered farmers as per the type of farming practices they are engaged in on a zonal basis, funds required to catalyse their production and access to available markets.

All these would assist the policymakers and those who implement them to focus on areas of comparative advantage, as the current President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Dr Adewnmi Adesina, once did. That was while he was the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development under the Dr Goodluck Jonathan-led administration.

Moving forward, we have to learn valuable lessons from the mistakes of the past.

For instance, as at political independence in 1960, agriculture accounted for 68 per cent of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It employed 70 per cent of the labour force, especially in rural areas. It provided not only food but generated employment and contributed 38 per cent of the non-oil foreign exchange earnings.

Indeed, the first national development plan, after independence (1962-1968) was anchored on agriculture. Within that period, over 80 per cent of total export earnings came from the sector as gotten from cocoa, cotton, castor, cowhide, oil palm nuts and rubber.

But how much of these products do we produce locally and how much do we export as of today? The answer is obvious.

With true fiscal federalism firmly in place back then, the Chief Obafemi Awolowo-led Western Region (now defunct) funded the laudable Free Education Policy.

The Cocoa House remains a great testament and symbol of the power of home-grown agriculture. But what do we have these days? A military government-imposed centralized structure, backed by the 1999 Constitution (as Amended) controlling resources (agriculture, education, healthcare delivery) that should ordinarily belong to the states or federating units.

We joyfully allow for exports of our raw agricultural products (cashew nuts, cocoa, coffee, yam, cocoyam, cassava, ginger, garlic, oranges, mangos) only to buy the processed forms at exorbitant rates! That is just like we do with our crude oil.

Sadly, we erroneously focus our attention on borrowing billions of Naira from the same countries that should be begging us for loans!

Perhaps, the German national who recently stated Nigeria holds the key to the global economic feats of the near future certainly knows his onions. With a vast landmass of 923,720 sq/km, a water area of 13,000 sq/km, an annual rainfall of between 250mm (North) and 300mm (South), a clement climate blessed with abundant sunshine, the Rivers Niger and Benue as well as their tributaries and the vast Atlantic Ocean to the South, why not?

The answer, of course, lies with the missing leadership factor. The ones we have had gave us policy flip-flops on agriculture, ranging from the National Accelerated Food Production Programme (NAFPP, 1972), through the Operation Feed the Nation (OFN), the Green Revolution (GR) before the springing up of the River Basin Authorities.

After that came the Agric Banks and eventually the Directorate of Foods, Roads and Rural Infrastructure (DFRII) during the famed IBB era. But all refused to put food on the common man’s table. And so did the high-sounding NAPEP and NEEDS that could hardly identify, not to talk about meeting our daily needs.

It was, therefore, not surprising that the food importation issue metamorphosed from the Rice Armada during the Alhaji Shehu Shagari tenure in the ‘80s to Nigeria becoming the highest importer of fish in 2005, spending some staggering N50 billion on fish annually.

Still, on the importation, it jumped from N3.47 billion in 1990 to N113.63 billion in 2002. Between 1981 and 2019, it recorded N217.76 billion, according to Trading Economics Report.

The piece of good news is that Nigeria has become Africa’s largest producer of rice under the current Buhari-led administration. But rice is not the only food we eat or should concentrate on.

According to Cleaver and Shoebar (1994), Nigeria lacks the requisite knowledge in food processing, preservation and packaging. This has led to post-harvest losses ranging from 25 per cent to 40 per cent and something urgent needs to be done to reverse the drift.

Currently, we need modern agricultural practices to succeed. But let it be made a way of life. Let the study of the subject be made more attractive; right from the primary school level up to the university stage. Governments and the private sector should collaborate to wage a concerted war against Climate Change, terrorism and all forms of insecurity. Farmers should be registered and trained through well-paid farm extension instructors.

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Feature/OPED

Price Of Cooking Gas: Who Are The Real Enemies Of The Masses?

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cooking gas outlet

By Ayomide Oriade

In Nigeria, where the sizzle of Jollof Rice and the aroma of Egusi soup are the fabric of daily life, the price of cooking gas has become a silent scourge, stealing joy from kitchens and straining wallets. For millions, the cost of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (cooking gas) dictates whether a family eats a warm meal or scrapes by with cold leftovers.

Into this fray steps Aliko Dangote, Africa’s industrial colossus, whose Lekki refinery promises to crash the price of cooking gas, offering relief to a nation gasping under the weight of energy poverty.

Yet, his bold move has ignited a firestorm, with gas marketers protesting, their voices rising like a chorus of indignation. As the battle lines are drawn, a pressing question emerges: who are the real enemies of the masses in this saga?

Dangote’s vision is as audacious as it is transformative. His 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery, a gleaming testament to Nigerian ambition, is poised to flood the market with affordable LPG, slashing costs that have long burdened households.

The numbers however paint a grim picture. In 2024, the average price of a 12.5kg cylinder of cooking gas soared to over N14,000 in some regions, a 70 per cent spike from the previous year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. For low-income families, this is not just a price hike—it’s a choice between cooking and paying school fees.

Dangote’s plan to sell directly to consumers, bypassing layers of middlemen, threatens to upend a market riddled with inefficiencies. His refinery could supply up to 5 million tonnes of LPG annually, potentially meeting Nigeria’s entire demand and more, while driving prices down to levels unseen in years.This move is more than economic—it’s a public health imperative.

The World Health Organization estimates that over 95,000 Nigerians die annually from indoor air pollution caused by reliance on firewood and kerosene, fuels that choke lungs and darken futures.

By making LPG affordable, Dangote could light a path to cleaner, safer kitchens, reducing the health burden on women and children who bear the brunt of toxic smoke. His strategy is a clarion call to reimagine a Nigeria where energy access is a right, not a privilege.

But the Nigerian Association of Liquefied Petroleum Gas Marketers (NALPGAM) has sounded the alarm, branding Dangote’s move as a monopolistic threat. They argue that his dominance risks strangling their businesses, accusing him of wielding his industrial might to corner the market. Their protests, however, ring hollow against the backdrop of a system that has long failed the masses.

For years, Nigerians have endured a market plagued by forex volatility, inadequate storage infrastructure, and a labyrinth of distributors who inflate prices at every turn. The average marketer’s margin, while slim, compounds into exorbitant costs for consumers.

Dangote’s direct-to-consumer model challenges this status quo, threatening profits built on the backs of struggling households. But who are the real enemies of the masses? Is it the man leveraging his refinery to ease the burden of energy poverty, or the marketers clinging to a broken system that keeps cooking gas out of reach for many?

The marketers’ resistance smacks of self-preservation, not public interest. Their claim that Dangote’s pricing is “unrealistic” ignores the potential for a larger market where affordability drives demand. Dangote has invited collaboration, not confrontation, emphasizing that a growing LPG market could benefit all players. Yet, the marketers’ reluctance to adapt suggests a deeper fear: losing control over a lucrative but inequitable status quo.

This is not to say Dangote’s approach is flawless. His critics raise valid concerns about monopolistic tendencies. A single player dominating the LPG market could stifle competition, potentially leading to price manipulation down the line. Regulatory oversight will be crucial to ensure his ambitions don’t morph into unchecked control.

Still, when weighed against a system that forces families to choose between firewood and starvation, Dangote’s disruption feels less like a threat and more like a lifeline. The masses deserve a champion in this price war.  For too long, Nigeria’s energy market has been a rigged game, where the poor pay the highest price.

Dangote’s move challenges a cycle of exploitation that has gone unchallenged for decades. The real enemies of the masses are not those who dare to disrupt the market’s excesses, but those who profit from its brokenness. As Nigeria stands at this crossroads, let us rally for a future where cooking gas fuels homes, not controversies, and where the warmth of a kitchen is a right afforded to all.

Ayomide Oriade, a Communication Strategist, writes from Lagos

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A New Dawn for Nigeria: How Tinubu’s Tax Reforms are Forging a Path to Prosperity

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Alex Oware YP4T

By Alex Oware

In a move widely heralded as a watershed moment for Nigeria’s economic future, President Bola Tinubu, on June 26, 2025, signed four landmark tax reform bills into law. These comprehensive reforms, set to revolutionize the nation’s fiscal landscape from January 1, 2026, are not merely adjustments to tax rates; they represent a visionary blueprint for a prosperous and equitable Nigeria, embodying the very essence of bold and compassionate leadership. This historic turning point is poised to reengineer the nation’s economic foundations, championing homegrown prosperity and ushering in an era of renewed hope for every Nigerian.

The impact of this new tax regime is nothing short of transformative, particularly for the average citizen. President Tinubu’s administration has demonstrated an acute understanding of the financial pressures faced by millions, delivering a major win for low-income earners and taking a significant stride towards alleviating financial burdens and promoting economic stability.

One of the most impactful provisions is the full exemption from Pay As You Earn (PAYE) tax for individuals earning up to N1.3 million per annum. This single measure directly benefits at least 35% of all workers, providing immediate and tangible relief.

Furthermore, an additional 60% of the workforce will see reduced PAYE rates, broadening the scope of financial ease. In a commendable gesture recognizing their invaluable service, members of the armed forces will also receive full PAYE tax exemptions, a testament to the government’s commitment to those who defend our nation.

Perhaps the most universally felt relief comes from the elimination of Value Added Tax (VAT) on essential goods and services. This groundbreaking policy, which covers approximately 60% of all consumer spending, brings government closer to the grassroots and reaffirms a deeply humane approach to governance.

From the daily sustenance of food and vital healthcare services to the foundational pillars of education and the basic necessity of rent and transportation, VAT is now a thing of the past. Beyond these fundamental provisions, the reforms extend to embrace crucial areas like renewable energy and compressed natural gas (CNG), aligning with global efforts towards sustainable development.

Critically, essential female-related and childcare items such as sanitary towels and baby diapers are now VAT-free, providing direct and immediate financial relief to women and low-income households – a truly compassionate and forward-thinking measure. The easing of financial burdens is further compounded by tax breaks for wage awards, transport subsidies, and capped taxable benefits-in-kind, demonstrating a holistic approach to improving citizens’ welfare. Moreover, the reforms actively promote affordable housing through targeted VAT and stamp duty exemptions, making the dream of homeownership more accessible for many.

Apart from the immediate relief for citizens, these reforms are meticulously designed to ignite the engine of economic growth, increase revenue generation, and enhance effective tax administration, creating a more robust and resilient national economy. A core objective is to restore fairness in the tax system and foster inclusive economic growth.

Small companies, now defined by an increased exemption threshold of N100 million annual gross turnover, are fully exempt from key taxes. This strategic move is set to unleash the entrepreneurial spirit of the nation, fostering the rapid growth of small businesses, which are the backbone of any thriving economy.

A significant innovation is the introduction of a Unified Development Levy, set at 4% of assessable profits. This singular levy consolidates various previous disparate levies, providing a strategic and streamlined funding mechanism for essential development agencies.

From TETFUND and the Nigerian Education Loan to NASENI, NBTI, NITDA, the Defence and Security Infrastructure Fund, and the National Cybersecurity Fund, this unified approach ensures consistent investment in critical sectors like technological innovations and indigenous development, laying the groundwork for a knowledge-based economy. The new laws also implement a more progressive Personal Income Tax structure, reinforcing the principle of equitable contribution.

While low-income earners below N800,000 annually are now exempt, ensuring a just burden on those who can least afford it, the reforms ensure that the wealthy contribute their fair share.

Furthermore, a crucial provision establishing a 15% minimum effective tax rate for multinationals is set to ensure Nigeria earns its just share from global commerce, closing long-standing loopholes through measures like a new Capital Gains Tax on indirect share transfers. This commitment to equitable global taxation signals Nigeria’s strong stance on financial sovereignty.

The international community and the domestic business environment have responded with overwhelming optimism. As evidenced by statements from prominent business leaders like Femi Otedola, who is “inspired to invest more,” these laws are seen as a “bold, necessary step toward a more transparent, efficient, and investment-friendly economy.”

This surge in investor confidence is a direct result of the reforms’ clarity, fairness, and commitment to fostering a conducive business climate. To further stimulate employment, employers will benefit from tax incentives designed to encourage the hiring of more workers.

In a forward-looking move, the reforms also introduce friendly tax structures aimed at attracting international remote work opportunities for Nigerians, thereby fostering global employment prospects and positioning Nigeria as a hub for talent. The streamlining of the tax system with globally recognized VAT principles, allowing for input VAT recovery and mandatory e-invoicing, further solidifies Nigeria’s commitment to a business-friendly and digitally enabled tax environment, enhancing transparency and ease of doing business.

President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda is not merely a political slogan; it is a profound governance philosophy deeply rooted in economic reform, national inclusion, and institutional revitalization. These transformational tax provisions are a tangible manifestation of this agenda, poised to strengthen economic resilience, significantly improve workers’ welfare, and enhance employment opportunities across the nation.

By creating a more equitable financial landscape for all Nigerians, President Tinubu is not just enacting laws; he is laying the foundation for a truly prosperous, inclusive, and globally competitive Nigeria. The future is bright, and with these visionary reforms, Nigeria is undoubtedly on a trajectory towards an era of unprecedented growth and shared prosperity.

Alex Oware is the Regional Director for YP4T

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Trump Exploring Strategic Economic Cooperation With Africa

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Economic Cooperation With Africa

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

United States President Donald Trump’s unexpected invitation of five West African leaders from Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal for extraordinary multilateral meeting in Washington was primarily to review and reshape the US relationship with Africa.

According to White House official documents, the key areas of cooperation also included economic development, security, infrastructure and democracy. The meeting was attended by the presidents of Gabon (Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema), Guinea-Bissau (Umaro Sissoco Embaló), Liberia (Joseph Nyuma Boakai), Mauritania (Mohamed Ould Ghazouani), and Senegal (Bassirou Diomaye Faye).

The multilateral dialogue has both high-valued significance and geopolitical implications. The White House explicitly indicated the July meeting aimed at fostering an open dialogue and get familiar with rising concerns and priorities, and possibly with the goal of promoting private sector investment and deeper economic partnerships.

Some policy experts have weighed in too. At the height of United States deteriorating relations with Africa and, particularly with new rules and regulations relating to trade, President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Dr Akinwumi Adesina, proposed concerted efforts to change the narrative on Africa in the United States in order to attract increased investments into the continent.

“Africa is no longer a continent that can be ignored,” he said, pointing further to emerging economic investment opportunities for institutional investors in Africa and those from the United States.

“This is the time to change the investment narrative on Africa in the United States,” he stressed, and explained several developing strategic alliances and partnerships, taking advantage of the new outlook of new US administration.

Adesina spoke about the need to change the mindset, and creating more opportunities to attract greater US investment in Africa and within the context of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Many African countries consider AfCFTA as a historic opportunity to deepen economic ties, first with regional and continental neighbours, and further to expand market access for their respective goods and services abroad.

Notably, this intra-African trade remains the starting-point of strength, especially with the AfCFTA creating a single consumer-market of an estimated 1.4 billion people.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has faced resonating criticisms from South African entrepreneurs, politicians, and the middle class for turning and twisting its spinal bone to the United States.

For decades, many other African countries, including Ethiopia, Egypt and South Africa have had excellent trade ties and investment relations with the United States, especially through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). While some African countries, since Donald Trump’s ascension to the presidency, have been trying to adjust to change US trade and economic relations with Africa, uncertainty largely remains on the landscape. Egypt has had its share over the war between Israel and Palestine, and South Africa over the alleged white genocide.

It is interesting to remind here that the relations between South Africa and the United States have sharply declined since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. Tensions escalated after the US president expelled South Africa’s ambassador and cut financial aid, citing objections to South Africa’s land reform policies and its decision to pursue a genocide case against US ally Israel at the International Court of Justice.

In response, the South African government defended its stance, calling the land reform effort a constitutional measure aimed at addressing historical racial inequalities in land ownership dating back to apartheid. Officials also stressed that no land expropriations have taken place.

Nevertheless, US-Africa business conference hosted by Angola in late June 2025, adopted measures to sustain at least existing long-term trade ties between US and Africa, tactful agreements were reached to push for the extension of AGOA which offer the huge chance for African products and service to reach US market, and for eligible African countries to earn revenue for the budget.

Undeniably, the African and Afro-American diaspora invariably form important actors in the US-Africa economic partnership and key vectors of commercial exchanges on the African and US directions.

In practical reality, the AGOA and the AfCFTA are currently working together on mechanisms to promote trade between the two regions. This represents the strongest bridge connecting US and Africa, in addition to financial remittances ($58 billion, World Bank and IMF reports 2024) by Africans whose labour supports the American economy and the aggregate productivity. These are stark realities that are getting increasingly hard to ignore in the current geopolitical context.

While the swift turns and tweets continues featuring in US relations with Africa, Donald Trump’s multilateral ‘mini-summit’ with leaders of Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal raised eye-brows around the world.

Reports monitored and thoroughly studied by this article author indicated that Trump’s strategically aimed at striking smart-partnership involving the exploitation of critical mineral resources and also questions over trade and support for economic development. That however, critics say the five leaders represent a small fraction of the US-Africa trade, but possess untapped natural resources.

In their speeches, African leaders adopted a kind of flattering chorus. Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal have shown skyline interest, an opportunity to sustain bilateral relations but with new twists and in new formats.

Nowadays, African countries are prepared to export semi-processed resources, such as Senegalese natural resources, including manganese — a key mineral in the production of stainless steel and batteries — iron ore, gold, diamonds, lithium and cobalt; Gabon’s manganese and uranium, and those other mineral resources particularly in Guinea-Bissau, that have drawn Washington’s strategic interest.

On one side, Liberia’s President Joseph Nyuma Boakai in a statement “expressed optimism about the outcomes of the summit, reaffirming Liberia’s commitment to regional stability, democratic governance, and inclusive economic growth.” On the other side, Guinea-Bissau’s president, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, called the visit “very important” – citing hopes for economic support. Gabonese officials also cited industrial development as a key interest.

Reports littered up on social media, offered insights into the assertive exchanges and discussions by Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye with Donald Trump.  During the meeting, Bassirou Faye lavished praises on and further complimented Trump’s leadership skills — and his golf game — and pitched a potential Trump-branded golf course in Senegal. “I was wondering what your secret was for resolving all these complex crises?” Faye flatteringly asked Trump. “And I know you are a tremendous golf player. Golf requires concentration and precision, qualities that also make for a great leader.”

Trump appeared noticeably pleased with Mauritania President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, together with the four presidents. United States anticipated to strike contentious mineral exploration deals. “We have a great deal of resources,” said Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, president of Mauritania, listing rare earths, as well as manganese, uranium and possibly lithium. “We have a lot of opportunities to offer in terms of investment.”

In a typically direct, combative, and unique style, Trump told the African leaders Washington’s ambitious plans to build new economic cooperation, and the desire to boost substantial package of trade ties with the aforementioned African leaders. Trump encouraged the leaders to make greater investments in defence, hopefully, of course, buying US equipment, the best defense equipment which was proved the best in the Republic of Iran.

In all that, Trump suggested serious trade, which perhaps means that Washington would be hesitant to impose large tariffs on their countries. At least, Trump even thought it necessary to crack jokes, asked Liberia’s president where he learnt to speak English so well. “Such good English, where did you learn to speak so beautifully? I have people at this table who can’t speak nearly as well,” Trump asked after complimenting Liberian President Joseph Boakai on his English that Liberia has been a longtime friend of the United States and the possibility of the policy for making America great again in the geopolitical context.

“We have closed the USAID group to eliminate waste, fraud and abuse,” Trump said. “And we’re working tirelessly to forge new economic opportunities involving both the United States and many African nations.” West African countries are among the hardest hit by the dissolution of USAID. The U.S. support in Liberia amounted to 2.6 per cent of the country’s gross national income, the highest percentage anywhere in the world, according to the Centre for Global Development.

Trump has announced new tariffs, beginning from August 1, on 14 countries, including Algeria, Libya, and South Africa. This cast a shadow over Africa’s economic outlook, paralysing business afresh in those countries. But at the same time, there are also clear indications Trump administration is, most possibly with truth of commitment, normalizing relations and expanding economic partnerships and that would ensure renewed waves across the continent. While there are still some doubts over patching up the growing complications and complexities in the entire US-Africa relations, the White House’s report hinted at holding an expanded Africa leaders summit in September with United States under the patronage of Donald Trump.

Kestér Kenn Klomegâh has a diverse work experience in the field of business intelligence and consultancy. His focused research interest includes geopolitical changes, foreign relations and economic development related questions in Africa with external countries. Klomegâh has media publications, policy monographs and e-handbooks

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