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War of GDP Size: Nigeria Vs South Africa

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By Vincent Nwani

“The size of a country’s GDP has always tended to influence international investment flows, regional economic recognition and sometimes can weigh into political equations” … Dr Vincent Nwani

The GDP War

In April 2014, Nigeria emerged as the largest economy in Africa after a rebasing exercise nearly doubled its Gross Domestic Product. Prior to this, South Africa had held the baton for a long time as having the largest economy in Africa including all of the recognitions that come with it.

However, through a rebasing exercise Nigeria’s economy was put at about 30% larger than South Africa’s with the 2013 Nigerian GDP valued at $509.9 billion while that of South Africa was valued at $372 billion.

The large increase in Nigeria’s GDP was attributed to the inclusion of sectors such as telecommunications, e-commerce and the film industry which did not exist during the previous rebasing exercise carried out in 1990.

According to Richard Dowden of Royal African Society, “Nigeria had always had immense ambition to be the leader of Africa in economic size”. Thus, it is not surprising that this ambition passed through and materialized, largely on the back of a clever paper works.

… And The War Rages

As expected, the 2015 GDP figures recently published by the IMF show that South Africa’s economy has again surpassed Nigeria’s, thus, regaining its former rank as the largest economy in the continent. The figures put South Africa’s 2015 GDP at $301 billion at the rand’s current exchange rate, with Nigeria’s standing at $296 billion at the Naira’s current exchange rate.

According to Preston Consult Policy Paper of August 2016, “countries’ economies are measured using their nominal GDP figures at their current exchange rate with a common international currency, such as the dollar, in order to provide a common base for comparison. Therefore, although the relative sizes of their actual nominal GDPs may remain the same when measured in their domestic currencies, the exchange rate of the dollar plays a major role in determining the estimated size of a country’s economy and, thus, its ranking”.

Bloomberg noted that the rand has gained more than 16% against the US dollar since the start of 2016, with the recent vote for a Brexit attracting foreign investors in search of emerging economies with liquid capital markets to invest in.

In contrast, Nigeria’s Naira has lost more than a third of its value after the Central Bank removed the 197-199 Naira per dollar currency peg in June 2016”.

These exchange rate movements have, thus, led to a relative increase in the US dollar value of the South African GDP, while Nigeria remains at the receiving end.

Do Investors Really Care about GDP Size?

Although higher-ranked economies will attract more foreign investors, these rankings do not mean much and are not really useful for economic policy and investment decisions. This is because the rankings are heavily dependent on exchange rate fluctuations, which can be very volatile and uncertain as well. Thus, international investors pay less attention to the relative size of economies than they do to growth prospects and Ease of Doing Business. For instance, investors want to know if there will be economic growth propelled by reforms in the pipeline towards incentivizing private investment. They want to see policy regulations that open up opportunities in the sectoral, increases the yield on their investment in an economy and guarantees ease of profit repatriation.

Unfortunately, the current economic growth prospects of both South Africa and Nigeria are “hanging on the balance”, with both countries facing the risk of a recession after their economies contracted in the first quarter of 2016. While Nigeria’s contracted by 0.4%, South Africa’s contracted by 0.2%. The South African Reserve Bank has forecast that there would be no economic growth in the country in 2016, and that the economy would grow at a rate lower than the population growth rate in 2017 and 2018. In the same line, Nigeria’s economic prospects also remain bleak due to the country’s over-dependence on oil whose price in the international market has remained under intense pressure couples with significant supply disruption on the home front. As it stands, Nigeria is yet to get “a handle” on its prevailing economic crisis.

It is a bit unrealistic to compare the Nigerian GDP produced by a population of about 187 million people with that of South Africa generated by just about 54.9 million people. While Nigeria’s larger potential workforce and consumer base increases its attractiveness as an investment destination, with the likelihood of producing a larger GDP, it also means that the country has a long way to go in order to reach the standard of living that obtains in South Africa.

According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s GDP per capita in 2015 was $2,640.3 while South Africa’s was $5,691.7. The former’s GDP would therefore need to be substantially larger before the average citizen can be as prosperous as the average South African, even if Nigeria was ranked as the largest economy in Africa.

While the 2014 rebasing exercise gave some insight into the magnitude and increasing diversity of Nigeria’s economy, the country still has a long way to go to reach South Africa’s level of economic maturity.

This explains why South Africa has always attracted more FDI projects than Nigeria. According to the EY 2015 Africa Attractiveness Survey, in the last five years South Africa received twice as many FDI projects as any other African country as investors are attracted by a diverse economy, solid infrastructure, and ease of doing business. In addition, the World Economic Forum ranked South Africa and Nigeria 49th and 124th respectively out of 144 countries in the Competitiveness Index.

It is not hard to see why Nigeria’s economy lags behind that of South Africa when one considers the fact that the former is more reliant on commodity exports than the latter. Nigeria receives more than 90% of its foreign income from oil exports, while South Africa has only 65% of total exports as commodities, which is diversified over several different commodities. South Africa therefore generates much more through its manufacturing and service industries.

In addition, South Africa surpasses Nigeria in terms of the quality of regulation and supervision of the financial services sector, which enhances the ease of doing business in a country. Although there have been recent improvements in the regulation of the Nigeria banking sector, it is still very much a cash-based economy as less than 35% of Nigerians have a formal bank account compared to 70% in South Africa.

The fact that Nigeria is less developed than South Africa means that there are more growth prospects in it. Minor investments can lead to substantial economic gains and growth in Nigeria compared to South Africa that already has lots of economic infrastructure in place.

Similarly, Nigeria’s significantly higher population size can be harnessed to contribute positively to economic growth. While Nigeria is likely to regain its position as the largest economy in Africa due to its population advantage in the medium to long term, the ranking of African economies is likely to be determined by exchange rate movements in the short term.

Time to go to Work

Fact remains that Nigerian government received unearned glory for posting huge GDP numbers after it rebased its GDP exercise. But the country is not able to get away with the responsibilities and implications that ride on back of huge GDP size. Nigeria can take a clue from the Chinese model by refusing the “quick fix” syndrome (aspirin) and embark on hard long term permanent solution (vitamin). This will be achieved first, by decisively dealing with the scourging incidences of corruption, build firm institutions and embark on sectors specific reforms to open up long term investments. This should be complimented by aggressive investment (which should be driven by reforms) in infrastructure, especially electricity and transportation.

Dr Vincent Nwani is a leading macroeconomic, business and policy analyst. He holds Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D) in Economics and currently the Director, Research and Advocacy at the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI).

http://vincentnwani.com/2016/09/war-gdp-size-nigeria-vs-south-africa/

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Guide to Employee Training That Reinforces Workplace Safety Standards

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Workplace Safety Standards

Workplace safety is not sustained by policies alone. It is built through consistent training that shapes daily behaviour, decision-making, and accountability across every level of an organisation. When employees understand not only what safety rules exist but why they matter, they are far more likely to follow them and intervene when risks arise. Effective safety-focused training protects workers, strengthens operations, and reduces costly incidents that disrupt productivity and morale.

As industries evolve and workplaces become more complex, employee training must go beyond basic orientation sessions. Reinforcing safety standards requires an ongoing, structured approach that adapts to new risks, changing regulations, and real-world job demands. A thoughtful training strategy helps create a culture where safety is a shared responsibility rather than a checklist item.

Establishing a Foundation of Safety Awareness

The first purpose of workplace safety training is awareness. Employees cannot avoid hazards they do not understand. Comprehensive training introduces common workplace risks, clarifies acceptable behaviour, and sets expectations for personal responsibility. This foundational knowledge empowers employees to recognise unsafe conditions before incidents occur.

Safety awareness training should be tailored to the specific environment in which employees work. Office settings require education on ergonomics, electrical safety, and emergency evacuation procedures, while industrial workplaces demand detailed instruction on machinery risks, protective equipment, and material handling. When training reflects actual job conditions, employees are more engaged and better equipped to apply what they learn.

Clear communication is essential during this stage. Using plain language and real examples helps employees connect training concepts to daily tasks. When safety awareness becomes part of how employees think and talk about their work, it begins to shape behaviour consistently across the organisation.

Integrating Safety Training into Daily Operations

Safety training is most effective when it is integrated into everyday work rather than treated as a one-time event. Ongoing reinforcement ensures that safety standards remain top of mind as tasks, equipment, and responsibilities change. Regular training sessions create opportunities to refresh knowledge, address new risks, and correct unsafe habits before they lead to injury.

Incorporating short safety discussions into team meetings helps normalise these conversations. Supervisors play a critical role by modelling safe behaviour and reinforcing expectations during routine interactions. When employees see safety emphasised alongside productivity goals, it reinforces the message that both are equally important.

Hands-on training also strengthens retention. Demonstrations, practice scenarios, and real-time feedback allow employees to apply safety principles in controlled settings. This experiential approach builds confidence and reduces hesitation when employees encounter hazards in real situations.

Aligning Training with Regulatory Requirements

Workplace safety training must align with applicable regulations and industry standards to ensure legal compliance and worker protection. Laws and regulations change frequently, making it essential for organisations to keep training materials updated. Failure to do so can expose employees to unnecessary risk and organisations to legal consequences.

Training programs should clearly explain relevant safety regulations and how they apply to specific roles. Employees are more likely to comply when rules are presented as practical safeguards rather than abstract mandates. Documenting training completion and maintaining accurate records also demonstrates organisational commitment to compliance.

Many organisations rely on support from compliance training companies to navigate complex regulatory landscapes and design programs that meet both legal and operational needs. These partnerships can help ensure training remains accurate, consistent, and aligned with evolving requirements without overwhelming internal resources.

Encouraging Participation and Accountability

Effective safety training depends on active participation rather than passive attendance. Employees should be encouraged to ask questions, share concerns, and contribute insights based on their experiences. When workers feel heard, they become more invested in maintaining a safe environment.

Creating accountability is equally important. Training should clarify individual responsibilities and outline the consequences of ignoring safety standards. Employees need to understand that safety is not optional or secondary to performance goals. Reinforcement from leadership ensures that unsafe behaviour is addressed consistently and constructively.

Peer accountability also strengthens safety culture. When training emphasises teamwork and shared responsibility, employees are more likely to watch out for one another and intervene when they see risky behaviour. This collective approach reduces reliance on supervision alone and builds resilience across the workforce.

Adapting Training for Long-Term Effectiveness

Workplace safety training must evolve alongside organisational growth and workforce changes. New hires, role transitions, and technological updates introduce risks that require refreshed instruction. Periodic assessments help identify gaps in knowledge and opportunities for improvement.

Data from incident reports, near misses, and employee feedback provides valuable insight into training effectiveness. Adjusting content based on real outcomes ensures that training remains relevant and impactful. Organisations that treat training as a dynamic process are better equipped to respond to emerging risks.

Long-term effectiveness also depends on reinforcement beyond formal sessions. Visual reminders, updated procedures, and accessible reporting tools help sustain awareness. When safety standards are supported through multiple channels, employees receive consistent cues that reinforce training messages daily.

Conclusion

Reinforcing workplace safety standards through employee training requires intention, consistency, and adaptability. Training that builds awareness, integrates into daily operations, aligns with regulations, and encourages accountability creates a safer environment for everyone involved. When employees understand their role in maintaining safety, they are more confident, engaged, and prepared to prevent harm.

A strong training program is not simply a compliance exercise. It is an investment in people and performance. Organisations that prioritise meaningful safety training protect their workforce while fostering trust, stability, and long-term success.

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Debt is Dragging Nigeria’s Future Down

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By Abba Dukawa 

A quiet fear is spreading across the hearts of Nigerians—one that grows heavier with every new headline about rising debt. It is no longer just numbers on paper; it feels like a shadow stretching over the nation’s future. The reality is stark and unsettling: nearly 50% of Nigeria’s revenue is now used to service debt. That is not just unsustainable—it is suffocating.

Behind these figures lies a deeper tragedy. Millions of Nigerians are trapped in what experts call “Multidimensional Poverty,” struggling daily for dignity and survival, while a privileged few continue to live in comfort, untouched by the hardship tightening around the nation. The contrast is painful, and the silence around it is even louder.

Since assuming office, Bola Ahmed Tinubu has embarked on an aggressive borrowing path, presenting it as a necessary step to revive the economy, rebuild infrastructure, and stabilise key sectors.

Between 2023 and 2026, billions of dollars have been secured or proposed in foreign loans. On paper, it is a strategy of hope. But in the hearts of many Nigerians, it feels like a gamble with consequences yet to unfold.

The numbers are staggering. A borrowing plan exceeding $21 billion, backed by the National Assembly, alongside additional billions in loans and grants, signals a government determined to keep spending and building. Another $6.9 billion facility follows closely behind. These are not just financial decisions; they are commitments that will echo into generations yet unborn.

And so, the questions refuse to go away. Who will bear this burden? Who will repay these debts when the time comes? Will it not fall on ordinary Nigerians already stretched thin to carry the weight of decisions they never made?

There is a growing fear that the nation may be walking into a future where its people become strangers in their own land, bound by obligations to distant creditors.

Even more troubling is the sense that something is not adding up. The removal of fuel subsidy was meant to free up resources, to create breathing room for meaningful development.

But where are the results? Why does it feel like sacrifice has not translated into relief? The silence surrounding these questions breeds suspicion, and suspicion slowly erodes trust.  As of December 31, 2025, Nigeria’s public debt has risen to N159.28 trillion, according to the Debt Management Office.

The numbers keep climbing, but for many citizens, life keeps declining. This disconnect is what hurts the most. Borrowing, in itself, is not the enemy. Nations borrow to grow, to build, to invest in their future. But borrowing without visible progress, without accountability, without compassion for the people, it begins to feel less like strategy and more like a slow descent.

If these borrowed funds are truly building roads, schools, hospitals, and opportunities, then Nigerians deserve to see it, to feel it, to live it. But if they are funding excess, waste, or luxury, then this path is not just dangerous—it is devastating.

Nigeria’s growing loan profile is a double-edged sword. It can either accelerate development or deepen economic challenges. The key issue is not just borrowing, but what the country does with the money. Strong governance, transparency, and investment in productive sectors will determine whether these loans become a foundation for growth or a long-term liability. Because in the end, debt is not just an economic issue. It is a moral one. And if care is not taken, the price Nigeria will pay may not just be financial—it may be the future of its people.

Dukawa writes from Kano and can be reached at [email protected]

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Nigeria’s Power Illusion: Why 6,000MW Is Not An Achievement

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Nigeria Electricity Act 2023

By Isah Kamisu Madachi

For decades, Nigeria has been called the Giant of Africa. The question no one in government wants to answer is why a giant cannot keep the lights on.

Nigeria sits on the largest proven oil reserves in Africa, holds the continent’s most populous nation at over 220 million people, and commands the fourth largest GDP on the continent at roughly $252 billion. It possesses vast deposits of solid minerals, a fintech ecosystem that accounts for 28% of all fintech companies on the African continent, and a diaspora that remits billions of dollars annually.

If potential were electricity, Nigeria would have been powering half the world. Instead, an immediate former minister is boasting about 6,000 megawatts.

Adebayo Adelabu resigned as Minister of Power on April 22, 2026, citing his ambition to contest the Oyo State governorship election. In his resignation letter, he listed among his achievements that peak generation had increased to over 6,000 megawatts during his tenure, supported by the integration of the Zungeru Hydropower Plant. It was presented as a great crowning legacy. The claim deserves scrutiny, and the numbers deserve context.

To begin with, the context. Ghana, Nigeria’s neighbour in West Africa, has a national electricity access rate of 85.9%, with 74% access in rural areas and 94% in urban areas. Kenya, with a 71.4% national electricity access rate, including 62.7% in rural areas, leads East Africa. Nigeria, by contrast, recorded an electricity access rate of just 61.2 per cent as of 2023, according to the World Bank. This is not a distant or poorer country outperforming Nigeria. Ghana’s GDP stands at approximately $113 billion, less than half of Nigeria’s. Kenya’s economy is around $141 billion. Ethiopia, which has invested massively in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and is already exporting electricity to neighbouring countries, has a GDP of roughly $126 billion. All three are doing more with far less.

Now to examine the 6,000-megawatt, Daily Trust obtained electricity generation data from the Association of Power Generation Companies and the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, covering quarterly performance from 2023 to 2025 and monthly data from January to March 2026. The data shows that in 2023, peak generation was approximately 5,000 megawatts; in 2024, it reached approximately 5,528 megawatts; in 2025, it ranged between 5,300 and 5,801 megawatts; and by March 2026, available capacity had declined to approximately 4,089 megawatts. The grid never recorded a verified peak of 6,000 megawatts or higher. Adelabu had, in fact, set the 6,000-megawatt target publicly on at least three separate occasions, missing each deadline, and later admitted the target was not achieved, attributing the failure to vandalism of key transmission infrastructure.

In February 2026, Nigeria’s national grid produced an average available capacity of 4,384 megawatts, the lowest monthly average since June 2024. For a country with over 220 million people, this means electricity supply remains far below national demand, with the grid delivering only about 32 per cent of its theoretical installed capacity of approximately 13,000 megawatts. To put that in sharper comparison: in 2018, 48 sub-Saharan African countries, home to nearly one billion people, produced about the same amount of electricity as Spain, a country of 45 million. Nigeria, the continent’s most resource-rich large economy, is a significant part of that embarrassing equation.

The tragedy here is not just technical. It is a governance failure with compounding human costs. An economy that cannot provide reliable electricity cannot competitively manufacture goods, cannot industrialise at scale, cannot attract the volume of foreign direct investment its endowments warrant, and cannot build the digital infrastructure that would allow it to lead on artificial intelligence, data governance, and the emerging critical minerals economy where Africa’s next great opportunity lies. Countries with a fraction of Nigeria’s mineral wealth and human capital are already debating those frontiers. Nigeria is still campaigning on megawatts.

What a departing minister should be able to say, given Nigeria’s endowments, is not that peak generation touched 6,000 megawatts at some unverified moment. He should be saying that Nigeria now generates reliably above 15,000 megawatts, that rural electrification has crossed 70 per cent, and that the country is on a credible trajectory toward the kind of energy sufficiency that unlocks industrial growth. That is the standard Nigeria’s size and resources demand. Anything below it is not an achievement. It is an apology dressed in a press release.

The power sector has received billions of dollars in investment across multiple administrations. The 2013 privatisation exercise, the Presidential Power Initiative, the Electricity Act of 2023, and successive reform promises have produced a sector that still, in 2026, cannot guarantee eight hours of reliable supply to the average Nigerian household. That a minister exits that ministry citing a megawatt figure that fact-checkers have shown was never actually reached, and that even if reached would be unworthy of celebration given Nigeria’s potential, captures the full depth of the problem. The ambition is too small. The accountability is too thin. And the country deserves better from those who are privileged to manage its extraordinary, squandered potential.

Isah Kamisu Madachi is a policy analyst and development practitioner. He writes via [email protected]

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