Travel/Tourism
Africa’s Freight Demand Rises 15.9% on Asian Investment Flows
By Dipo Olowookere
A new report released last week by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has shown that African carriers saw increase in freight demand by 15.9 percent in February 2018 compared to the same month last year – the largest increase of any region.
The report disclosed that capacity increased by 3.9 percent and was helped by very strong growth on the trade lanes to and from Asia driven by ongoing foreign investment flows into Africa.
IATA said while the surge in demand on the route looks to have stabilized, volumes still increased by nearly 24 percent in year-on-year terms in January.
Globally, the report revealed that air freight markets for February 2018 recorded 6.8 percent increase in demand measured in freight tonne kilometres (FTKs) compared to the same period last year.
Adjusting for the potential Lunar New Year distortions by combining growth in January 2018 and February 2018, demand increased by 7.7 percent. This was the strongest start to a year since 2015.
Freight capacity, measured in available freight tonne kilometres (AFTKs), grew by 5.6 percent year-on-year in February 2018.
Furthermore, demand growth outstripped capacity growth for the 19th month in a row, which is positive for airline yields and the industry’s financial performance.
The continued growth in air cargo demand is consistent with ongoing robust global trade flows. There are, however, signs that the best of the upturn for air freight has passed. Demand drivers for air cargo are moving away from the highly supportive levels seen last year.
In recent months the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing and export orders has softened in a number of key exporting nations including Germany, China and the US. And the seasonally- adjusted demand for air cargo which rose at a double-digit annualized rate for much of 2017 is now trending at 3 percent.
“Demand for air cargo continues to be strong, with 6.8 percent growth in February. The positive outlook for the rest of 2018, however, faces some potentially strong headwinds, including escalation of protectionist measures into a full-blown trade war.
“Prosperity grows when borders are open to people and to trade, and we are all held back when they are not,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
The report also said North American airlines’ freight volumes expanded 7.3 percent in February 2018 compared to the same period a year earlier, and capacity increased by 4.1 percent.
Seasonally-adjusted volumes are broadly trending sideways. The weakening of the US dollar over the past year has helped boost demand for air exports.
Data from the US Census Bureau shows a 10.2 percent year-on-year increase in air export volumes from the US in January 2018, compared to a slower rise in imports of 6.7 percent.
In the same vein, European airlines posted a 5.7 percent increase in freight volumes in February 2018. This was almost half the rate of the previous month and the slowest of all regions.
Capacity increased 3.8 percent. Seasonally-adjusted volumes have been volatile in 2018 with the jump in demand in January largely reversed in month-on-month terms in February.
The strength of the Euro and the risks from protectionist measures may impact the European freight market which has benefitted from strong export orders, particularly in Germany, in recent years.
Also, Asia-Pacific airlines saw demand in freight volumes grow 6.5 percent in February 2018 and capacity increase by 7.2 percent, compared to the same period in 2017.
The upward-trend in seasonally-adjusted volumes has returned, with volumes currently trending upwards at an annualized pace of between 6.0 percent and 7.0 percent.
As the largest freight-flying region, carrying close to 37 percent of global air freight, the risks from protectionist measures impacting the region are disproportionately high.
Travel/Tourism
Nigeria Caps Jet Fuel Prices, Allows Airlines Buy on Credit to Avert Disruptions
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian government is capping jet fuel prices and allowing airlines to get supplies on credit as part of efforts to avert flight disruptions caused by soaring fuel costs.
Reuters reported that the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) said in an internal document that aviation fuel should sell for N1,760 to N1,988 ($1.29 to $1.46) per litre in Lagos and N1,809 to N2,037 in Abuja, based on benchmarks from April 17 to April 23.
The decision follows emergency talks after airlines threatened to go on a strike, warning that jet fuel prices had jumped by more than 300 per cent, forcing fare increases and raising the risk of capacity cuts.
The strike was averted after the federal government met with the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) and other stakeholders.
President Bola Tinubu last week approved 30 per cent relief on airlines’ debts to aviation agencies and ordered fuel marketers, airlines and regulators to agree on a “fair” fuel price within 72 hours to prevent the sector-wide shutdown that would have impacted the country’s economy.
The talks also agreed to grant airlines a 30-day credit window to pay for fuel and tasked the aviation ministry with mediating debt disputes between operators and oil marketers, according to the document.
The NMDPRA also formed a technical committee, which recommended that fuel marketers sell directly to airlines within the indicated price range to cut costs and improve supply-chain transparency.
The committee also urged regulators to engage Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals over the increased premiums applied to international benchmarks used to price jet fuel.
Other recommendations include validating airside fuel distributors with adequate infrastructure, potentially reducing the number of authorised suppliers at airports, and considering jet fuel for Nigeria’s Crude-for-Naira initiative to limit airlines’ foreign exchange exposure. So far, the Crude-for-Naira has only been for upstream operations.
The cost of fuel has generally risen in the last two months due to the escalating war with Iran by the US and Israel, which has triggered one of the most severe energy shocks in decades. Oil prices are currently above $100 per barrel as markets react to escalating tensions and the risk of prolonged disruption.
At the centre of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply flows. With shipping constrained, the effects are cascading across the global economy, raising fuel costs, fueling inflation, and increasing the risk of economic slowdown across many economies. This is forcing airlines to raise fares, curb growth plans and rethink forecasts.
Travel/Tourism
US to Nigerian Travellers: Visa Overstays Not Good for Fellow Citizens
By Adedapo Adesanya
The United States (US) has warned that visa overstays by Nigerian travellers could deny future opportunities for other aspiring applicants.
The United States embassy had earlier in February stated that compliance would help protect visa access for students and business travellers.
In a reminder statement posted on its official X handle on Monday, the US Mission in Nigeria advised that strengthening compliance helps protect visa access for students, business travellers, and families who travel responsibly.
“#Reminder: Visa overstays by Nigerian travellers can affect opportunities for their fellow citizens. Strengthening compliance helps protect access for students, business travellers, and families who travel responsibly. If you are aware of visa fraud, please report it to [email protected] or [email protected],” the statement read.
Last August, the Mission also announced that all non-immigrant visa applicants must now provide details of their social media accounts from the past five years.
In a statement, the embassy said applicants are required to disclose usernames or handles from every platform used within the period when completing the DS-160 visa application form.
“Visa applicants are required to list all social media usernames or handles of every platform they have used from the last 5 years on the DS-160 visa application form. Applicants certify that the information in their visa application is true and correct before they sign and submit,” the statement read.
The mission warned that omitting such information could result in visa denial and render applicants ineligible for future visas.
The DS-160 is the standard online form required for most US non-immigrant visas, including temporary business (B-1), tourism (B-2), student visas (F and M), and work-related categories such as the H-1B.
It insisted the new rules were designed to enhance security, they come amid repeated US criticism of governments accused of clamping down on free speech online.
Travel/Tourism
Tinubu Okays 30% Debt Relief to Airlines, Orders Fuel Price Talks
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu has approved a 30 per cent relief on debts owed by local airlines to aviation agencies and ordered talks involving fuel marketers, airlines, and regulators to reach a fair jet fuel price.
He had earlier agreed in principle to write off part of domestic airlines’ debts to aviation agencies following successful talks with the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON).
The group demanded a total waiver of debts owed to aviation agencies to cushion the effect of a 300 per cent increase in aviation fuel prices during a crucial high-level meeting with the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Mr Festus Keyamo and other critical stakeholders in Abuja.
Recall that the airlines had called off their impending strike due to commence on Monday over the rising cost of operations, particularly for fuel, triggered by the current Middle East crisis.
In an update on Thursday, Mr Keyamo said President Tinubu had approved the 30 per cent write‑off and tasked stakeholders, including fuel marketers, government representatives, airlines, and regulators, to reach a fair jet fuel price by Sunday.
Also, the federal government agreed to set up a committee to review taxes, levies and fees charged on domestic air tickets, to recommend cuts to ease pressure on airlines and passengers.
Engagements among representatives from government, airlines, fuel marketers, and regulators will continue to agree on what the minister described as “fair and reasonable” pricing for jet fuel, with any outcome to be made public.
The cost of fuel has generally risen in the last two months due to the escalating war with Iran by the US and Israel, which has triggered one of the most severe energy shocks in decades. Oil prices are currently above $100 per barrel as markets react to escalating tensions and the risk of prolonged disruption.
At the centre of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply flows. With shipping constrained, the effects are cascading across the global economy, raising fuel costs, fueling inflation, and increasing the risk of economic slowdown across many economies. This is forcing airlines to raise fares, curb growth plans and rethink forecasts.
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