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Are China and Russia Giant Competitors in Africa?

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Russia China Africa

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

Russia has to acknowledge the difference between illusions and realities in the geopolitical games. It has to recognize and thoroughly analyse and manage the current economic rivalry and competition among foreign players across Africa. It has, over these several years, been taking steps to uplift or broaden economic cooperation inside Africa.

In late June, Interfax News Agency reported, sourcing Roscosmos Head Yury Borisov, that Russia would sign a full-scale space cooperation agreement with Africa during the July summit. “We are touring African states ahead of this forum (Russia-Africa) and have agreed with the colleague from the Egyptian agency to draft a full-scale agreement on a broad range of possible relations in the space industry,” the press service quoted Borisov as saying.

In another related development, Russian giant Gazprom has shown a preparedness to help African countries develop gas production. It indicated this interest several years ago; Gazprom officials have visited several African countries in connection with this energy sector. It has signed an agreement referred to as NiGaz with the Federal Republic of Nigeria. The title of the project offered absolutely nothing, no gas production until today in this West African country.

Research shows that Nigaz was established in 2009 as a joint venture between the Russian gas company Gazprom EP International B.V. (100% affiliate of OAO Gazprom) and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. It planned to invest $2.5 billion to build oil and gas refineries, pipelines and gas power stations in Nigeria. Launching the company, Dmitry Medvedev, then president, announced his intention to form a major energy partnership with Nigeria at a meeting in Abuja with Nigerian president Umaru Yar’Adua.

Gazprom is prepared to help develop natural gas production and use in African countries, the Russian gas giant said at an international roundtable in Johannesburg on the benefits of gas for consumers and the economy. The roundtable was attended by representatives of business communities, experts and reporters from nine African countries, including Algeria, Angola, Ghana, Egypt, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania and South Africa.

“Taking into account the South African government’s policy to decarbonize the economy, gas could become an effective means of meeting demand for energy since renewable energy sources cannot ensure uninterrupted supplies. In this regard, I believe that Gazprom’s experience implementing liquefied natural gas and gas pipeline construction projects could be of interest to South African partners,” Russian Ambassador Ilya Rogachev was quoted as saying in the press release.

“Greater use of natural gas will help Africa solve a whole range of problems, from economic to social and environmental. We believe that Africa should fully discover the advantages of this fuel for itself,” the head of Gazprom’s foreign economic activities department, Dmitry Khandoga, said.

“We see potential in cooperation with African countries and can offer our unique experience and technological know-how. Gazprom is open to discussing constructive and mutually beneficial proposals that would facilitate economic development and improve the lives of people in African countries,” Khandoga said.

The chairman of the African Energy Chamber, NJ Ayuk, said more than 600 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa do not have electricity, and 900 million people, most of them women, do not have access to clean cooking technologies. Either they do not exist, or they are insufficient, and solving this problem alone is sufficient reason to use the continent’s rich gas reserves, he said.

In Africa, which needs industrialization, affordable and abundant natural gas will help create many new jobs and opportunities for capacity building, economic diversification and growth, Ayuk said.

The participants discussed the role of natural gas in Africa’s sustainable development. It was noted that the availability of energy remains a problem in most countries on the continent, and its consumption is several times lower than the global average.

Meanwhile, experts estimate that Africa will account for more than 60% of global population growth by 2050. Along with urbanization in the region, there is expected to be substantial economic growth, which will be accompanied by a twofold increase in energy consumption. Demand for natural gas is expected to grow by 150%.

Increasing natural gas production will help meet the growing energy demand, roundtable participants said. “However, at present most of the gas extracted here is exported. For example, one in three residents of Nigeria, Africa’s largest LNG exporter, does not have access to energy. Therefore, it is the accessibility of energy for industry and households that will be of foremost importance for Africa’s dynamic development,” Gazprom said.

With the help of China, a number of African countries, through bilateral agreements, now have the capacity to assemble, integrate and test satellites. This will enable them to position themselves as the continent’s space industry powerhouse. Quiet recently, Egypt took delivery of two China-funded prototypes for the MisrSat-2 satellite project on June 25.

The satellites will be assembled and tested at a centre, also financed by China, at the Egyptian Space Agency near the country’s new capital city. China provided a $74 million grant for the project, as well as $68 million for the satellite assembly, integration, and test centre to be built.

Over the past three months, engineers from Egypt and the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation have been conducting tests on three MisrSat-2 satellite models – two prototypes and a flight model.

Chinese ambassador to Egypt, Liao Liqiang, said Egypt would be the first African nation that could assemble, integrate and test satellites. “Egypt is the first country to which China handed over the satellite cooperation project outside China, and the first country with which China cooperated to complete the large-scale trial operation of the satellite outside China,” Liao said at the ceremony to present the grant to the Egyptian government.

Media reports further said that Beijing was keen to work with Egypt to advance cooperation in space and to continue deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two nations. The satellite is expected to be launched from China in October.

Nigerian space scientist Temidayo Oniosun said China had taken a prominent role in partnering with African institutions to develop their space programmes. He said that in addition to Egypt, China had bilateral agreements with 13 other African countries covering space technology, training and ground infrastructure.

“Like other countries such as Russia, the United States and Europe, China is always exploring new business opportunities on the continent,” Oniosun said, adding that the African space industry was growing – generating about $20 billion in annual revenue – and everyone wanted a slice of it. “It is also a critical tool for international diplomacy, and this defines China’s long-term plan on the continent,” he said.

“Competition among key African states ‘racing’ to become leaders in this sector, and competition among external players – especially China and France – to secure contracts in Africa,” noted President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi. In fact, Egypt is strategically placed to be a centre for satellite assembly since it has access to Europe and Africa. It is also bordered by the Mediterranean Sea to the north and the Red Sea to the East.

China had 28 space agreements with African nations – the most of any country – spanning everything from earth observation and capacity development to satellite navigation, communication and astronomy. It boosts cooperation on space technology, promotes Africa’s space infrastructure development, and uses the space industry to drive social development and improve people’s living standards.

Last year the South African Institute of International Affairs, a reputable policy think tank, said in its report that “Russia looks more like a ‘virtual great power’ than a genuine challenger to European, American and Chinese influence.”

It also highlighted the fact that Russia is using Africa as a geopolitical playing field, soliciting support for invading neighbouring Ukraine, and warned African leaders that Russia might not, in practical terms, deliver on its pledges and implement promptly bilateral agreements.

Professors Irina O. Abramova and Leonid L. Fituni, both from the Institute for African Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences, in a report last year, reminded the authorities, who are squeezed between illusions and realities, about their policy ambitions in Africa. And that high-ranking Russian officials need to change their approach towards Africa.

The fact that African countries consider Russia a reliable economic partner, and it is necessary to interact with African public and private businesses on a mutually beneficial basis. In this regard, Russian initiatives should be supported by real steps and not be limited to verbal declarations about the “return of Russia to Africa,” especially after the Sochi gathering, which was described as very symbolic, they wrote in the report.

The first symbolic first summit at the Black Sea city of Sochi, indeed, fêted heads of state from 43 African countries and showcased Moscow’s great power ambitions. At the tail-end of it, both Russia and Africa adopted a joint declaration, a comprehensive document that outlines the key objectives and necessary tasks to raise assertively the entire relations to a new qualitative level. Several agreements were also signed with African countries. And yet Russian officials are desirously looking to sign more new agreements during the next summit.

And, of course, this late July, African leaders and corporate businesses will be heading to St. Petersburg, the second largest city in Russia, primarily to discuss ways to end the Russia-Ukraine crisis and its related adverse impact on Africa’s economy and across the world. Secondly, they will be looking strategically to negotiate for “no-cost delivery” of grains and wheat and, most possibly, access to advanced technology and investment in the economic sectors. Third, close-ups of the two-day gathering with memorable group photographs.

What do potential external players need? What does Africa Want from foreign countries? Beyond signing bilateral agreements, what next? With the emerging challenges and geopolitical changes in this evolving multipolar world, it is certainly true that Russia has to take practical steps towards interconnecting, to build better multi-dimensional relationships with Africa.

In the 21st century, Africa does not need anti-Western rhetoric. It has to address sustainable development goals, especially rising youth unemployment, food security, energy deficits, and improved infrastructure. Simply anti-Western slogans will never facilitate its economic development. The best way to fight ‘neo-colonialism’ is to invest in competitive sectors where the United States and Europe are showing similar interests.

On a broader scale, the African Union (AU), an organization which unites sovereign states across Africa, also needs to adopt a new policy strategy with Russia. In reality, and taking cognizance of the huge untapped natural resources, and combined with the available human capital, Africa’s sectors are presently crying for drastic economic transformation to take care of the increasing demands of the estimated 1.4 billion population.

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Abebe Selassie to Retire as Director of African Department at IMF

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Abebe Aemro Selassie

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has announced the retirement of its director of the African department, Abebe Aemro Selassie, on May 1, 2026. Since his appointment in 2016, Abebe Selassie has served in this position for a decade. During his tenure, IMF added a 25th chair to its Executive Board, increasing the voice of sub-Saharan Africa.

As a director for Africa, he has overseen the IMF’s engagement with 45 countries across sub-Saharan Africa. Abebe and his team work closely with the region’s leaders and policymakers to improve economic and development outcomes. This includes oversight of the IMF’s intensified engagement with the region in recent years, including some $60 billion in financial support the institution has provided to countries since 2020. Reports indicated that under his leadership, his department generally reinforces the organization’s role as a trusted partner to many African countries.

Abebe Selassie has worked with both the regional economic blocs and the African Union (AU) as well as individual African states. The key focus has been the strategic articulation of Africa’s development priorities in reshaping economic governance, mobilizing sustainable investments, and addressing systemic financial challenges.

It is important noting that the IMF has funded diverse infrastructure projects that facilitated either export-led growth or import substitution industrialization models of development. Further to that, African states have also made numerous loans and benefited from much-needed debt relief.

Summarizing the IMF’s key focus areas, among others, for Africa: (i) reforming the global financial architecture in an effort to improve the structure, institutions, rules, and processes that govern international finance in order to make the global economy more stable, equitable, and resilient.

Concessional financing to counter rising borrowing costs, with Africa paying up to 5 times more in interest than advanced economies (AfDB, 2023). Fair representation, pushing for IMF quota reforms to reflect Africa’s $3.4 trillion collective GDP—yet the continent holds less than 5% of voting shares in Bretton Woods institutions.

(ii) Unlocking Investments for Jobs and Sustainable Growth. With Africa’s working-age population set to double to 1 billion by 2050, the African states spotlight: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), projected to boost intra-African trade by 52% and create 30 million jobs by 2035 (World Bank, 2024).  Infrastructure partnerships, targeting sectors such as renewable energy, where Africa receives only 2% of global clean energy investments despite its vast solar and wind potential (IEA, 2024).

(iii) Climate Finance and Debt Relief for Resilience: Africa contributes less than 4% of global emissions but bears the brunt of climate shocks, losing 5–15% of GDP per capita to climate-related disasters annually (African Development Bank, 2024). These are strictly in alignment with Agenda 2063’s aspirations for inclusive growth, maximizing multilateral cooperation and enhancing global engagement with the continent.

“I am deeply grateful for Abe’s visionary leadership, dedication to the Fund’s mission, and unwavering commitment to the members in the region,” Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). “The legacy he leaves on the Fund’s work in Africa is one of alignment with the aspirations of people, especially the youth, for good governance, strong economies and lasting prosperity. His trusted advice has been invaluable to me personally, and his leadership has strengthened our mission.”

“A national of Ethiopia, Selassie first joined the IMF in 1994. Over his remarkable 32-year career, he held senior positions including Deputy Director in AFR, Mission Chief for Portugal and South Africa, Division Chief of the Regional Studies Division, and Senior Resident Representative in Uganda. Earlier, he contributed to programs in Turkey, Thailand, Romania, and Estonia, and worked on policy, operational review, and economic research.”

Under his ten-year leadership and as director of the African Department (AFR), Abebe Selassie helped to reinforce the Fund’s role as a trusted partner with sub-Saharan African members. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an international organization that promotes global economic growth and financial stability, encourages international trade, and reduces poverty.

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Africa Squeezed between Import Substitution and Dependency Syndrome

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Dependency Syndrome

By Kestér Kenn  Klomegâh

Squeezed between import substitution and dependency syndrome, a condition characterized by a set of associated economic symptoms—that is rules and regulations—majority of African countries are shifting from United States and Europe to an incoherent alternative bilateral partnerships with Russia, China and the Global South.

By forging new partnerships, for instance with Russia, these African countries rather create conspicuous economic dependency at the expense of strengthening their own local production, attainable by supporting local farmers under state budget. Import-centric partnership ties and lack of diversification make these African countries committed to import-dependent structures. It invariably compounds domestic production challenges. Needless to say that Africa has huge arable land and human resources to ensure food security.

A classical example that readily comes to mind is Ghana, and other West African countries. With rapidly accelerating economic policy, Ghana’s President John Dramani Mahama ordered the suspension of U.S. chicken and agricultural products, reaffirming swift measures for transforming local agriculture considered as grounds for ensuring sustainable food security and economic growth and, simultaneously, for driving job creation.

President John Dramani Mahama, in early December 2025, while observing Agricultural Day, urged Ghanaians to take up farming, highlighting the guarantee and state support needed for affordable credit and modern tools to boost food security. According to Mahama, Ghana spends $3bn yearly on basic food imports from abroad.

The government decision highlights the importance of leveraging unto local agriculture technology and innovation. Creating opportunities to unlock the full potential of depending on available resources within the new transformative policy strategy which aims at boosting local productivity. President John Dramani Mahama’s special initiatives are the 24-Hour Economy and the Big Push Agenda. One of the pillars focuses on Grow 24 – modernising agriculture.

Despite remarkable commendations for new set of economic recovery, Ghana’s demand for agricultural products is still high, and this time making a smooth shift to Russia whose poultry meat and wheat currently became the main driver of exports to African countries. And Ghana, noticeably, accepts large quantity (tonnes) of poultry from Russia’s Rostov region into the country, according to several media reports. The supplies include grains, but also vegetable oils, meat and dairy products, fish and finished food products have significant potential for Africa.

The Agriculture Ministry’s Agroexport Department acknowledges Russia exports chicken to Ghana, with Ghanaian importers sourcing Russian poultry products, especially frozen cuts, to meet significant local demand that far outstrips domestic production, even after Ghana lifted a temporary 2020 avian flu-related ban on Russian poultry.

Moreover, monitoring and basic research indicated Russian producers are actively increasing poultry exports to various African countries, thus boosting trade, although Ghana still struggles to balance imports with local industry needs.

A few details indicate the following:

Trade Resumed: Ghana has lifted its ban on Russian poultry imports since April 2021, allowing poultry trade to resume. Russian regions have, thus far, consistently exported these poultry meat and products into the country under regulatory but flexible import rules on a negotiated bilateral agreement.

Significant Market: In any case, Ghana is a key African market for Russian poultry, with exports seeing substantial growth in recent years, alongside Angola, Benin, Cote d’Voire, Nigeria and Sierra Leone.

Demand-Driven: Ghana’s large gap between domestic poultry production and national demand necessitates significant imports, creating opportunities for foreign suppliers like Russia.

Major Exporters: Russia poultry companies are focused on increasing generally their African exports, with Ghana being a major destination. The basic question: to remain as import dependency or strive at attaining food sufficiency?

Product Focus: Exports typically include frozen chicken cuts (legs and meat) very vital for supplementing local supply. But as the geopolitical dynamics shift, Ghana and other importing African countries have to review partnerships, particularly with Russia.

Despite the fact that challenges persist, Russia strongly remains as a notable supplier to Ghana, even under the supervision of John Mahama’s administration, dealing as a friendly ally, both have the vision for multipolar trade architecture, ultimately fulfilling a critical role in meeting majority of African countries’ large consumer demand for poultry products, and with Russia’s trade actively expanding and Ghana’s preparedness to spend on such imports from the state budget.

Following two high-profile Russia–Africa summits, cooperation in the area of food security emerged as a key theme. Moscow pledged to boost agricultural exports to the continent—especially grain, poultry, and fertilisers—while African leaders welcomed the prospect of improved food supplies.

Nevertheless, do these African governments think of prioritising agricultural self-sufficiency. At a May 2025 meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s Economic Development Minister, Maxim Reshetnikov, underlined the fact that more than 40 Russian companies were keen to export animal products and agricultural goods to the African region.

Russia, eager to expand its economic footprint, sees large-scale agricultural exports as a key revenue generator. Estimates suggest the Russian government could earn over $15 billion annually from these agricultural exports to African continent.

Head of the Agroexport Federal Center, Ilya Ilyushin, speaking at the round table “Russia-Africa: A Strategic Partnership in Agriculture to Ensure Food Security,” which was held as part of the international conference on ensuring the food sovereignty of African countries in Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) on Nov. 21, 2025, said: “We see significant potential in expanding supplies of Russian agricultural products to Africa.”

Ilya Ilyushin, however, mentioned that the Agriculture Ministry’s Agroexport Department, and the Union of Grain Exporters and Producers, exported over 32,000 tonnes of wheat and barley to Egypt totaling nearly $8 million during the first half of 2025, Kenya totaling over $119 million.

Interfax media reports referred to African countries whose markets are of interest for Russian producers and exporters. Despite existing difficulties, supplies of livestock products are also growing, this includes poultry meat, Ilyushin said. Exports of agricultural products from Russia to African countries have more than doubled, and third quarter of 2025 reached almost $7 billion.

The key buyers of Russian grain on the continent are Egypt, Algeria, Kenya, Libya, Tunisia, Nigeria, Morocco, South Africa, Tanzania and Sudan, he said. According to him, Russia needs to expand the geography of supplies, increasing exports to other regions of the continent, increase supplies in West Africa to Benin, Cameroon, Ghana, Liberia and the French-speaking Sahelian States.

Nevertheless, Russian exporters have nothing to complain. Africa’s dependency dilemma still persists. Therefore, Russia to continue expanding food exports to Africa explicitly reflects a calculated economic and geopolitical strategy. In the end of the analysis, the debate plays out prominently and the primary message: Africa cannot and must not afford to sacrifice food sovereignty for colourful symbolism and geopolitical solidarity.

With the above analysis, Russian exporters show readiness to explore and shape actionable strategies for harnessing Africa’s consumer market, including that of Ghana, and further to strengthen economic and trade cooperation and support its dynamic vision for sustainable development in the context of multipolar friendship and solidarity.

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Coup Leader Mamady Doumbouya Wins Guinea’s 2025 Presidential Election

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Mamady Doumbouya

By Adedapo Adesanya

Guinea’s military leader Mamady Doumbouya will fully transition to its democratic president after he was elected president of the West African nation.

The former special forces commander seized power in 2021, toppling then-President Alpha Conde, who had been in office since 2010.

Mr Doumbouya reportedly won 86.72 per cent of the election held on December 28, an absolute majority that allows him to avoid a runoff. He will hold the forte for the next seven years as law permits.

The Supreme Court has eight days to validate the results in the event of any challenge. However, this may not be so as ousted Conde and Mr Cellou Dalein Diallo, Guinea’s longtime opposition leader, are in exile.

The election saw Doumbouya face off a fragmented opposition of eight challengers.

One of the opposition candidates, Mr Faya Lansana Millimono claimed the election was marred by “systematic fraudulent practices” and that observers were prevented from monitoring the voting and counting processes.

Guinea is the world leader in bauxite and holds a very large gold reserve. The country is preparing to occupy a leading position in iron ore with the launch of the Simandou project in November, expected to become the world’s largest iron mine.

Mr Doumbouya has claimed credit for pushing the project forward and ensuring Guinea benefits from its output. He has also revoked the licence of Emirates Global Aluminium’s subsidiary Guinea Alumina Corporation following a refinery dispute, transferring the unit’s assets to a state-owned firm.

In September, rating agency, Standard & Poor’s (S&P), assigned an inaugural rating of “B+” with a “Stable” outlook to the Republic of Guinea.

This decision reflects the strength of the country’s economic fundamentals, strong growth prospects driven by the integrated mining and infrastructure Simandou project, and the rigor in public financial management.

As a result, Guinea is now above the continental average and makes it the third best-rated economy in West Africa.

According to S&P, between 2026 and 2028, Guinea could experience GDP growth of nearly 10 per cent per year, far exceeding the regional average.

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