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Are China and Russia Giant Competitors in Africa?

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Russia China Africa

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

Russia has to acknowledge the difference between illusions and realities in the geopolitical games. It has to recognize and thoroughly analyse and manage the current economic rivalry and competition among foreign players across Africa. It has, over these several years, been taking steps to uplift or broaden economic cooperation inside Africa.

In late June, Interfax News Agency reported, sourcing Roscosmos Head Yury Borisov, that Russia would sign a full-scale space cooperation agreement with Africa during the July summit. “We are touring African states ahead of this forum (Russia-Africa) and have agreed with the colleague from the Egyptian agency to draft a full-scale agreement on a broad range of possible relations in the space industry,” the press service quoted Borisov as saying.

In another related development, Russian giant Gazprom has shown a preparedness to help African countries develop gas production. It indicated this interest several years ago; Gazprom officials have visited several African countries in connection with this energy sector. It has signed an agreement referred to as NiGaz with the Federal Republic of Nigeria. The title of the project offered absolutely nothing, no gas production until today in this West African country.

Research shows that Nigaz was established in 2009 as a joint venture between the Russian gas company Gazprom EP International B.V. (100% affiliate of OAO Gazprom) and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. It planned to invest $2.5 billion to build oil and gas refineries, pipelines and gas power stations in Nigeria. Launching the company, Dmitry Medvedev, then president, announced his intention to form a major energy partnership with Nigeria at a meeting in Abuja with Nigerian president Umaru Yar’Adua.

Gazprom is prepared to help develop natural gas production and use in African countries, the Russian gas giant said at an international roundtable in Johannesburg on the benefits of gas for consumers and the economy. The roundtable was attended by representatives of business communities, experts and reporters from nine African countries, including Algeria, Angola, Ghana, Egypt, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania and South Africa.

“Taking into account the South African government’s policy to decarbonize the economy, gas could become an effective means of meeting demand for energy since renewable energy sources cannot ensure uninterrupted supplies. In this regard, I believe that Gazprom’s experience implementing liquefied natural gas and gas pipeline construction projects could be of interest to South African partners,” Russian Ambassador Ilya Rogachev was quoted as saying in the press release.

“Greater use of natural gas will help Africa solve a whole range of problems, from economic to social and environmental. We believe that Africa should fully discover the advantages of this fuel for itself,” the head of Gazprom’s foreign economic activities department, Dmitry Khandoga, said.

“We see potential in cooperation with African countries and can offer our unique experience and technological know-how. Gazprom is open to discussing constructive and mutually beneficial proposals that would facilitate economic development and improve the lives of people in African countries,” Khandoga said.

The chairman of the African Energy Chamber, NJ Ayuk, said more than 600 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa do not have electricity, and 900 million people, most of them women, do not have access to clean cooking technologies. Either they do not exist, or they are insufficient, and solving this problem alone is sufficient reason to use the continent’s rich gas reserves, he said.

In Africa, which needs industrialization, affordable and abundant natural gas will help create many new jobs and opportunities for capacity building, economic diversification and growth, Ayuk said.

The participants discussed the role of natural gas in Africa’s sustainable development. It was noted that the availability of energy remains a problem in most countries on the continent, and its consumption is several times lower than the global average.

Meanwhile, experts estimate that Africa will account for more than 60% of global population growth by 2050. Along with urbanization in the region, there is expected to be substantial economic growth, which will be accompanied by a twofold increase in energy consumption. Demand for natural gas is expected to grow by 150%.

Increasing natural gas production will help meet the growing energy demand, roundtable participants said. “However, at present most of the gas extracted here is exported. For example, one in three residents of Nigeria, Africa’s largest LNG exporter, does not have access to energy. Therefore, it is the accessibility of energy for industry and households that will be of foremost importance for Africa’s dynamic development,” Gazprom said.

With the help of China, a number of African countries, through bilateral agreements, now have the capacity to assemble, integrate and test satellites. This will enable them to position themselves as the continent’s space industry powerhouse. Quiet recently, Egypt took delivery of two China-funded prototypes for the MisrSat-2 satellite project on June 25.

The satellites will be assembled and tested at a centre, also financed by China, at the Egyptian Space Agency near the country’s new capital city. China provided a $74 million grant for the project, as well as $68 million for the satellite assembly, integration, and test centre to be built.

Over the past three months, engineers from Egypt and the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation have been conducting tests on three MisrSat-2 satellite models – two prototypes and a flight model.

Chinese ambassador to Egypt, Liao Liqiang, said Egypt would be the first African nation that could assemble, integrate and test satellites. “Egypt is the first country to which China handed over the satellite cooperation project outside China, and the first country with which China cooperated to complete the large-scale trial operation of the satellite outside China,” Liao said at the ceremony to present the grant to the Egyptian government.

Media reports further said that Beijing was keen to work with Egypt to advance cooperation in space and to continue deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two nations. The satellite is expected to be launched from China in October.

Nigerian space scientist Temidayo Oniosun said China had taken a prominent role in partnering with African institutions to develop their space programmes. He said that in addition to Egypt, China had bilateral agreements with 13 other African countries covering space technology, training and ground infrastructure.

“Like other countries such as Russia, the United States and Europe, China is always exploring new business opportunities on the continent,” Oniosun said, adding that the African space industry was growing – generating about $20 billion in annual revenue – and everyone wanted a slice of it. “It is also a critical tool for international diplomacy, and this defines China’s long-term plan on the continent,” he said.

“Competition among key African states ‘racing’ to become leaders in this sector, and competition among external players – especially China and France – to secure contracts in Africa,” noted President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi. In fact, Egypt is strategically placed to be a centre for satellite assembly since it has access to Europe and Africa. It is also bordered by the Mediterranean Sea to the north and the Red Sea to the East.

China had 28 space agreements with African nations – the most of any country – spanning everything from earth observation and capacity development to satellite navigation, communication and astronomy. It boosts cooperation on space technology, promotes Africa’s space infrastructure development, and uses the space industry to drive social development and improve people’s living standards.

Last year the South African Institute of International Affairs, a reputable policy think tank, said in its report that “Russia looks more like a ‘virtual great power’ than a genuine challenger to European, American and Chinese influence.”

It also highlighted the fact that Russia is using Africa as a geopolitical playing field, soliciting support for invading neighbouring Ukraine, and warned African leaders that Russia might not, in practical terms, deliver on its pledges and implement promptly bilateral agreements.

Professors Irina O. Abramova and Leonid L. Fituni, both from the Institute for African Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences, in a report last year, reminded the authorities, who are squeezed between illusions and realities, about their policy ambitions in Africa. And that high-ranking Russian officials need to change their approach towards Africa.

The fact that African countries consider Russia a reliable economic partner, and it is necessary to interact with African public and private businesses on a mutually beneficial basis. In this regard, Russian initiatives should be supported by real steps and not be limited to verbal declarations about the “return of Russia to Africa,” especially after the Sochi gathering, which was described as very symbolic, they wrote in the report.

The first symbolic first summit at the Black Sea city of Sochi, indeed, fêted heads of state from 43 African countries and showcased Moscow’s great power ambitions. At the tail-end of it, both Russia and Africa adopted a joint declaration, a comprehensive document that outlines the key objectives and necessary tasks to raise assertively the entire relations to a new qualitative level. Several agreements were also signed with African countries. And yet Russian officials are desirously looking to sign more new agreements during the next summit.

And, of course, this late July, African leaders and corporate businesses will be heading to St. Petersburg, the second largest city in Russia, primarily to discuss ways to end the Russia-Ukraine crisis and its related adverse impact on Africa’s economy and across the world. Secondly, they will be looking strategically to negotiate for “no-cost delivery” of grains and wheat and, most possibly, access to advanced technology and investment in the economic sectors. Third, close-ups of the two-day gathering with memorable group photographs.

What do potential external players need? What does Africa Want from foreign countries? Beyond signing bilateral agreements, what next? With the emerging challenges and geopolitical changes in this evolving multipolar world, it is certainly true that Russia has to take practical steps towards interconnecting, to build better multi-dimensional relationships with Africa.

In the 21st century, Africa does not need anti-Western rhetoric. It has to address sustainable development goals, especially rising youth unemployment, food security, energy deficits, and improved infrastructure. Simply anti-Western slogans will never facilitate its economic development. The best way to fight ‘neo-colonialism’ is to invest in competitive sectors where the United States and Europe are showing similar interests.

On a broader scale, the African Union (AU), an organization which unites sovereign states across Africa, also needs to adopt a new policy strategy with Russia. In reality, and taking cognizance of the huge untapped natural resources, and combined with the available human capital, Africa’s sectors are presently crying for drastic economic transformation to take care of the increasing demands of the estimated 1.4 billion population.

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Russian-Nigerian Economic Diplomacy: Ajeokuta Symbolises Russia’s Remarkable Achievement in Nigeria

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Ajaokuta Steel Plant, Nigeria

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

Over the past two decades, Russia’s economic influence in Africa—and specifically in Nigeria—has been limited, largely due to a lack of structured financial support from Russian policy banks and state-backed investment mechanisms. While Russian companies have demonstrated readiness to invest and compete with global players, they consistently cite insufficient government financial guarantees as a key constraint.

Unlike China, India, Japan, and the United States—which have provided billions in concessionary loans and credit lines to support African infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, and SMEs—Russia has struggled to translate diplomatic goodwill into substantial economic projects. For example, Nigeria’s trade with Russia accounts for barely 1% of total trade volume, while China and the U.S. dominate at over 15% and 10% respectively in the last decade. This disparity highlights the challenges Russia faces in converting agreements into actionable investment.

Lessons from Nigeria’s Past

The limited impact of Russian economic diplomacy echoes Nigeria’s own history of unfulfilled agreements during former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration. Over the past 20 years, ambitious energy, transport, and industrial initiatives signed with foreign partners—including Russia—often stalled or produced minimal results. In many cases, projects were approved in principle, but funding shortfalls, bureaucratic hurdles, and weak follow-through left them unimplemented. Nothing monumental emerged from these agreements, underscoring the importance of financial backing and sustained commitment.

China as a Model

Policy experts point to China’s systematic approach to African investments as a blueprint for Russia. Chinese state policy banks underwrite projects, de-risk investments, and provide finance often secured by African sovereign guarantees. This approach has enabled Chinese companies to execute large-scale infrastructure efficiently, expanding their presence across sectors while simultaneously investing in human capital.

Egyptian Professor Mohamed Chtatou at the International University of Rabat and Mohammed V University in Rabat, Morocco, argues: “Russia could replicate such mechanisms to ensure companies operate with financial backing and risk mitigation, rather than relying solely on bilateral agreements or political connections.”

Russia’s Current Footprint in Africa

Russia’s economic engagement in Africa is heavily tied to natural resources and military equipment. In Zimbabwe, platinum rights and diamond projects were exchanged for fuel or fighter jets. Nearly half of Russian arms exports to Africa are concentrated in countries like Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique. Large-scale initiatives, such as the planned $10 billion nuclear plant in Zambia, have stalled due to a lack of Russian financial commitment, despite completed feasibility studies. Similar delays have affected nuclear projects in South Africa, Rwanda, and Egypt.

Federation Council Chairperson Valentina Matviyenko and Senator Igor Morozov have emphasized parliamentary diplomacy and the creation of new financial instruments, such as investment funds under the Russian Export Center, to provide structured support for businesses and enhance trade cooperation. These measures are designed to address historical gaps in financing and ensure that agreements lead to tangible outcomes.

Opportunities and Challenges

Analysts highlight a fundamental challenge: Russia’s limited incentives in Africa. While China invests to secure resources and export markets, Russia lacks comparable commercial drivers. Russian companies possess technological and industrial capabilities, but without sufficient financial support, large-scale projects remain aspirational rather than executable.

The historic Russia-Africa Summits in Sochi and in St. Petersburg explicitly indicate a renewed push to deepen engagement, particularly in the economic sectors. President Vladimir Putin has set a goal to raise Russia-Africa trade from $20 billion to $40 billion over the next few years. However, compared to Asian, European, and American investors, Russia still lags significantly. UNCTAD data shows that the top investors in Africa are the Netherlands, France, the UK, the United States, and China—countries that combine capital support with strategic deployment.

In Nigeria, agreements with Russian firms over energy and industrial projects have yielded little measurable progress. Over 20 years, major deals signed during Obasanjo’s administration and renewed under subsequent governments often stalled at the financing stage. The lesson is clear: political agreements alone are insufficient without structured investment and follow-through.

Strategic Recommendations

For Russia to expand its economic influence in Africa, analysts recommend:

  1. Structured financial support: Establishing state-backed credit lines, policy bank guarantees, and investment funds to reduce project risks.
  2. Incentive realignment: Identifying sectors where Russian expertise aligns with African needs, including energy, industrial technology, and infrastructure.
  3. Sustained implementation: Turning signed agreements into tangible projects with clear timelines and milestones, avoiding the pitfalls of unfulfilled past agreements.

With proper financial backing, Russia can leverage its technological capabilities to diversify beyond arms sales and resource-linked deals, enhancing trade, industrial, and technological cooperation across Africa.

Conclusion

Russia’s Africa strategy remains a work in progress. Nigeria’s experience with decades of agreements that failed to materialize underscores the importance of structured financial commitments and persistent follow-through. Without these, Russia risks remaining a peripheral player (virtual investor) while Arab States such as UAE, China, the United States, and other global powers consolidate their presence.

The potential is evident: Africa is a fast-growing market with vast natural resources, infrastructure needs, and a young, ambitious population. Russia’s challenge—and opportunity—is to match diplomatic efforts with financial strategy, turning political ties into lasting economic influence.

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Afreximbank Warns African Governments On Deep Split in Global Commodities

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Commodities Market

By Adedapo Adesanya

Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has urged African governments to lean into structural tailwinds, warning that the global commodity landscape has entered a new phase of deepening split.

In its November 2025 commodity bulletin, the bank noted that markets are no longer moving in unison; instead, some are powered by structural demand while others are weakening under oversupply, shifting consumption patterns and weather-related dynamics.

As a result of this bifurcation, the Cairo-based lender tasked policymakers on the continent to manage supply-chain vulnerabilities and diversify beyond the commodity-export model.

The report highlights that commodities linked to energy transition, infrastructure development and geopolitical realignments are gaining momentum.

For instance, natural gas has risen sharply from 2024 levels, supported by colder-season heating needs, export disruptions around the Red Sea and tightening global supply. Lithium continues to surge on strong demand from electric-vehicle and battery-storage sectors, with growth projections of up to 45 per cent in 2026. Aluminium is approaching multi-year highs amid strong construction and automotive activity and smelter-level power constraints, while soybeans are benefiting from sustained Chinese purchases and adverse weather concerns in South America.

Even crude oil, which accounts for Nigeria’s highest foreign exchange earnings, though still lower year-on-year, is stabilising around $60 per barrel as geopolitical supply risks, including drone attacks on Russian facilities, offset muted global demand.

In contrast, several commodities that recently experienced strong rallies are now softening.

The bank noted that cocoa prices are retreating from record highs as West African crop prospects improve and inventories recover. Palm oil markets face oversupply in Southeast Asia and subdued demand from India and China, pushing stocks to multi-year highs. Sugar is weakening under expectations of a nearly two-million-tonne global surplus for the 2025/26 season, while platinum and silver are seeing headwinds from weaker industrial demand, investor profit-taking and hawkish monetary signals.

For Africa, the bank stresses that the implications are clear. Countries aligned with energy-transition metals and infrastructure-linked commodities stand to benefit from more resilient long-term demand.

It urged those heavily exposed to softening agricultural markets to accelerate a shift into processing, value addition and product diversification.

The bulletin also called for stronger market-intelligence systems, improved intra-African trade connectivity, and investment in logistics and regulatory capacity, noting that Africa’s competitiveness will depend on how quickly governments adapt to the new two-speed global environment.

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Aduna, Comviva to Accelerate Network APIs Monetization

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Aduna Comviva Network APIs Monetization

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

A strategic partnership designed to accelerate worldwide enterprise adoption and monetisation of Network APIs has been entered into between Comviva and the global aggregator of standardised network APIs, Aduna.

The adoption would be done through Comviva’s flagship SaaS-based platform for programmable communications and network intelligence, NGAGE.ai.

The partnership combines Comviva’s NGAGE.ai platform and enterprise onboarding expertise with Aduna’s global operator consortium.

This unified approach provides enterprises with secure, scalable access to network intelligence while enabling telcos to monetise network capabilities efficiently.

The collaboration is further strengthened by Comviva’s proven leadership in the global digital payments and digital lending ecosystem— sectors that will be among the biggest adopters of Network APIs.

The NGAGE.ai platform is already active across 40+ countries, integrated with 100+ operators, and processing over 250 billion transactions annually for more than 7,000 enterprise customers. With its extensive global deployment, NGAGE.ai is positioned as one of the most scalable and trusted platforms for API-led network intelligence adoption.

“As enterprises accelerate their shift toward real-time, intelligence-driven operations, Network APIs will become foundational to digital transformation. With NGAGE.ai and Aduna’s global ecosystem, we are creating a unified and scalable pathway for enterprises to adopt programmable communications at speed and at scale.

“This partnership strengthens our commitment to helping telcos monetise network intelligence while enabling enterprises to build differentiated, secure, and future-ready digital experiences,” the chief executive of Comviva, Mr Rajesh Chandiramani, stated.

Also, the chief executive of Aduna, Mr Anthony Bartolo, noted that, “The next wave of enterprise innovation will be powered by seamless access to network intelligence.

“By integrating Comviva’s NGAGE.ai platform with Aduna’s global federation of operators, we are enabling enterprises to innovate consistently across markets with standardised, high-performance Network APIs.

“This collaboration enhances the value chain for operators and gives enterprises the confidence and agility needed to launch new services, reduce fraud, and deliver more trustworthy customer experiences worldwide.”

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