Economy
Fitch Retains $100 per Barrel Price Forecast for Brent
By Adedapo Adesanya
Top rating company, Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research, has left its Brent crude price forecast unchanged at $100 per barrel in 2022 and $90 per barrel in 2023.
A new report from the company revealed that “prices have stayed elevated in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reflecting supply disruptions stemming from the conflict itself, as well as Western sanctions in place on Russia.”
It added that, “Supply elsewhere is also constrained forcing the U.S. to utilize its SPR in an unprecedented fashion. Other OPEC+ members are struggling to meet their monthly output quotas, while U.S. shale growth is decelerating.”
“Despite this, downside risks to the price outlook have risen, as the demand outlook grows more clouded. The Ukraine conflict has weakened the economic prospects of major regional markets, including Russia and Germany, with our analysts making further downward revisions to their GDP growth forecasts this month,” Fitch Solutions continued.
The company also warned that Covid-19 infection rates “continue spiralling higher in China, triggering increasingly stringent containment measures that have undercut Chinese oil consumption and now threaten negative spillovers for other economies, particularly in Asia.”
Relying on the latest information from the World Health Organization (WHO), weekly COVID-19 cases in China rose more than 111 per cent from the week commencing on April 18 to the week commencing on April 25. Deaths also rose more than 93 per cent during the same time frame, WHO figures showed. Both figures remain below peaks seen a few weeks ago, however, according to WHO data.
“We have opted not to alter our prices at this stage but note a shift in the balance of risk to the outlook, which now skews to the downside,” Fitch Solutions noted.
Looking further ahead, Fitch Solutions sees Brent crude prices averaging $85 per barrel in 2024 and $88 per barrel in both 2025 and 2026. The Bloomberg Consensus, which was also highlighted in the report and to which Fitch Solutions is a contributor, sees Brent prices averaging $98.6 per barrel in 2022, $85.3 per barrel in 2023, $80 per barrel in 2024, $78 per barrel in 2025, and $78.3 per barrel in 2026.
At the start of last month, Fitch Solutions revealed in a separate report that it had made a “large upward revision” to its Brent crude price forecast. In that report, the company outlined that it expected prices to average at $100 per barrel this year and $90 per barrel in 2023, which it highlighted was up from its previous forecasts of $82 per barrel for 2022 and $83 per barrel for 2023.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government has imposed an immediate nationwide ban on the export of wood and allied products, revoking all previously issued licenses and permits to exporters.
The announcement was made on Wednesday by the Minister of Environment, Mr Balarabe Lawal, during the 18th meeting of the National Council on Environment in Katsina State.
Mr Lawal said the directive, outlined in the Presidential Executive Order titled Presidential Executive Order on the Prohibition of Exportation of Wood and Allied Products, 2025, became necessary to curb illegal logging and deforestation across the country.
“Nigeria’s forests are central to environmental sustainability, providing clean air and water, supporting livelihoods, conserving biodiversity, and mitigating the effects of climate change,” the Minister said, warning that the continued exportation of wood threatens these benefits and the long-term health of the environment.
The order, published in the Extraordinary Federal Republic of Nigeria Official Gazette No. 180, Vol. 112 of 16 October 2025, relies on Sections 17(2) and 20 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), which empower the state to protect the environment, forests, and wildlife and prevent the exploitation of natural resources for private gain.
Under the new policy, security agencies and relevant ministries are expected to enforce a total clampdown on illegal logging activities nationwide.
On his part, the Katsina State Deputy Governor, Mr Faruk Lawal Jobe highlighted the state’s history of pioneering socio-economic policies that have influenced national policy. He emphasized the importance of collaboration in addressing environmental challenges across the country.
“Environmental sustainability is critical to achieving growth and improving the quality of life of our people,” he said. “Our administration has prioritised initiatives aimed at combating desertification and promoting afforestation.”
The ban reflects the government’s commitment to safeguarding Nigeria’s shrinking forest cover and addressing climate change, while ensuring sustainable use of natural resources for future generations.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rose by 0.24 per cent on Wednesday, December 17, pulling the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) up by 8.62 points to 3,614.64 points from 3,606.02 points.
In the same vein, the market capitalisation added N4.72 billion to close at N2.164 billion compared with the N2.160 trillion it ended on Tuesday.
The growth was inspired by four securities, which finished on the gainers’ log, neutralising the losses printed by two other securities on the trading platform.
MRS Oil Plc gained N17.90 on Wednesday to end at N196.90 per unit versus N179.00 per unit, NASD Plc appreciated by 59 Kobo to N58.50 per share from N57.91 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc added 15 Kobo to sell at N60.19 per unit versus N60.04 per unit, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc rose by 6 Kobo to 64 Kobo per share from 58 Kobo per share.
On the flip side, Golden Capital Plc extended its loss by 76 Kobo to end at N7.75 per unit versus N8.51 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc slipped by 35 Kobo to N39.65 per share from N40.00 per share.
Yesterday, the volume of transactions increased by 737.3 per cent to 20.4 million units from 2.4 million units, but the value of trades fell by 33.8 per cent to N72.2 million from N109.1 million, and the number of deals slid by 62.5 per cent to 21 deals from 56 deals.
Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units sold for N16.4 billion, the second position was occupied by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units transacted for N9.5 billion, and the third place was taken by MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.
InfraCredit Plc was also the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units traded for N16.4 billion, followed by IGI Plc with 1.2 billion units valued at N420.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units worth N524.9 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
A 0.26 per cent growth was achieved by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Wednesday on the back of sustained bargain-hunting by investors.
This happened despite a pocket of profit-taking, with industrial goods losing 0.63 per cent and the energy index shedding 0.05 per cent.
But the insurance space increased by 2.02 per cent, the banking counter appreciated by 1.48 per cent, the commodity sector improved by 0.48 per cent, and the consumer goods segment rose by 0.03 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 383.71 points to 149,842.82 points from 149,459.11 points and the market capitalisation jumped by N244 billion to N95.525 trillion from N95.281 trillion.
The market breadth index remained positive after the bourse finished with 38 price gainers and 23 price losers, indicating a strong investor sentiment.
The quartet of First Holdco, Lasaco Assurance, Veritas Kapital, and Prestige Assurance gained 10.00 per cent to quote at N39.60, N2.75, N1.76, and N1.65, respectively, while Mecure Industries grew by 9.92 per cent to N50.40.
Conversely, Living Trust Mortgage Bank lost 10.00 per cent to close at N3.15, International Energy Insurance dropped 9.92 per cent to trade at N2.27, McNichols shrank by 6.90 per cent to N2.97, Omatek decreased by 6.84 per cent to N1.09, and Chams dipped by 6.41 per cent to N2.92.
The activity level witnessed a significant surge at midweek, with Ecobank trading 5.3 billion units for N168.7 billion.
Further, First Holdco sold 108.2 million units worth N4.2 billion, Sterling Holdings exchanged 87.3 million units valued at N606.2 million, FCMB transacted 74.3 million units worth N783.6 million, and Access Holdings sold 41.5 million units for N841.4 million.
At the close of trades, market participants traded 5.9 billion units valued at N216.2 billion in 25,205 deals compared with the 1.0 billion units worth N21.8 billion traded in 23,701 deals a day earlier, showing a rise in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 490.00 per cent, 891.74 per cent, and 6.35 per cent, respectively.
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